Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2019 11:57PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The UK need to understand that they still haven't got a trade deal with the EU.

This.
We have to remember this is not a period of negotiation, that is over. We are watching the machinations of the UK political establishment.
All that is required of the rest of the EU is patience. Let them sort it out, because only they can.

Seth Brundle · 10-08-2019 12:12AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All that is required of the rest of the EU is patience.

Hence why the various EU leaders (including bith Leo and Simon) are keeping fairly quiet.
Three or four months ago you had various statements daily from Tusk or Juncker amongst others.
Now there's a fairly dignified silence in the face of ongoing bravado and insults from the UK cabinet.

Popeleo · 10-08-2019 12:14AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

What are they going to export?

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Feelings, belief and Blitz Spirit I guess

And jobs. Lots of jobs.

Itineoman · 10-08-2019 12:23AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Maybe lets not get into the guts of that debate here, I think the point might be that the message needs something stronger to get through to the UK.

Interesting that someone brought up the question of a weakening pound possibly being good for cheapening UK exports to the EU. Now this is in theory true but the problem, part of which you have identified here, is that the barriers to trade in the EU comprise not just tariffs but also a variety of non-tariff barriers (registration, sign-offs, verification, etc) that can add a significant unspoken cost to exports. I suspect that might be the big rub when it comes to EU-UK trade post Brexit.

While I'm posting here, I couldn't help but observe Julia Hartley-Brewer commenting today on the pre-eminence of the UK in the university rankings as compared with the EU. I believe in the top 10 world universities, the UK has about 4, the EU (excluding the UK) none. So I went a bit deeper to the top 50 and I would suspect the UK has about 15, the rest of the EU 5 and the rest of the world the remainder.

The best riposte I could come up with is that this might in part be a product of EU investment and the UK's access to an entire EU pool of academic talent. I had considered making the case about EU funding but I suspect this would be easily brushed off as being less than the UK's EU contribution. Can anyone suggest any other counters we might use for the point?

There is no use in countering the point, in terms of rankings, for what they are worth, the UK has some great Universities, and that has been a significant boost to their economey and soft power globally for years. Brexit will have a negative impact on their universities, but may not change the overall picture significantly in terms of how they are ranked. The wider point, however, is that their great universities will not save them from the consequences of Brexit, not even close.

Brexit will take the UK universities out of EU research funding frameworks such as Horizon 2020 (worth €80 billion between 2014 and 2020)
as well as the upcoming Horizon Europe worth €100 billion. I haven’t the figures but it is a safe bet that the higher ranked universities would be taking a fair slice of that. Research grant money ( competitively hard-won) from schemes such as this is one of the metrics used in the university rankings.
It will make it more difficult for them to collaborate in international research projects overall and I’d expect this to have an impact on the rankings over time.

Infini · 10-08-2019 01:05AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

GBP just dropped below the previous lowest value in the last ten years.

New Record low of 93.93p to the Euro as of 23.40 UTC 9/8/19. Ladies and Gentlemen I do believe the real economic shítshow is starting to begin after all this time and from what it looks like the lunatics in the asylum have got enough run of the place that Markets are starting to react as predicted.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Just growing confidence in the market that we are on a no-deal path and the market responding accordingly. Its been on a fairly steady adjustment since May as the Tory leadership contest played out and the shape of Johnsons government became clear.

I'd say it's more than that, the fact's so far seem to be that those in charge of Britain are essentially idiot's of the highest order and no amount of warnings is going to make them see common sense. These are the type of cancerous idiots that will only ever buckle when facing real consequences of their actions. The real question though of course is that considering the UK government refuses to see sense will their be a run on the Pound over the next month because I can certainly see parity before the end of August at this rate and I hope the pound does tank enough to get across the point that this is just the opening act not the main event.

It's also laughable that those in the UK somehow they'll get a better deal after a no deal Brexit. What will ultimately happen is that if there really is a no deal Brexit that the next agreement they go looking for will be a list of Damages and demands that will be all one way. Noone on this side want's a no deal Brexit but what those over there in the Tories don't seem to get is that while the EU doesn't want a no deal that doesn't mean they aren't willing to tackle it either.

Geuze · 10-08-2019 01:26AM

Yes, a sharp drop again tonight.

But not a record low.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html

10yr low = 94.08 pence, 13-Oct 2009

Low since EMU started = 97.855p, 29-Dec 2008

Strazdas · 10-08-2019 01:53AM

I've seen people suggest that the serious effects of No Deal may well kick off before October 31st. For example, continental hauliers may decide to pull their trucks out of GB for fear of them being trapped in the country.

Lucy8080 · 10-08-2019 02:59AM

I get a good giggle out of the phrase " they need us more than we need them" in relation to exports.

U.k. exports to the E.U. in 2018 made up 46% of "their" total exports. Admittedly they imported just over 50% of "their" imports from the E.U.

But, not one nation in the E.U. is exporting 46% of their products to The U.K. I think Ireland is around 13% exports to the U.K. (could be less).

Just one example of the sleight of hand tactics "Brexit Politicians" have been foisting on the British public.

It is kind of sad to hear some callers to British radio stations assert this "phrase" with wholehearted belief.

"we buy more from them than they buy from us guv., they'll blink and no mistake, two world wars and one world cup. I blame the fackin' Irish ,bless their little spud munchin' cotton socks"

Strazdas · 10-08-2019 04:17AM

Lucy8080 wrote: »

I get a good giggle out of the phrase " they need us more than we need them" in relation to exports.

U.k. exports to the E.U. in 2018 made up 46% of "their" total exports. Admittedly they imported just over 50% of "their" imports from the E.U.

But, not one nation in the E.U. is exporting 46% of their products to The U.K. I think Ireland is around 13% exports to the U.K. (could be less).

Just one example of the sleight of hand tactics "Brexit Politicians" have been foisting on the British public.

It is kind of sad to hear some callers to British radio stations assert this "phrase" with wholehearted belief.

"we buy more from them than they buy from us guv., they'll blink and no mistake, two world wars and one world cup. I blame the fackin' Irish ,bless their little spud munchin' cotton socks"

They're completely brainwashed. They are repeating stuff they have read in the Daily Express and they've heard the Brexit Party say as if it's absolute indisputable fact

Normally the opinions of the most stupid section of society wouldn't even be listened to, but Britain has handed over the keys of the country to them.

maynooth_rules · 10-08-2019 07:11AM

Really the Daily Express, Telegraph, Mail and Express have so much to answer for when no deal happens. They have fed utter bollox and noncense for years to their mainly ill informed readers, and got us to the point where a decent chunk of the British population view Brexit as a religion that can't be questioned. Its just incredible to watch, and is no longer funny.

History will remember this group of Conservatives, and add Corbyn to that list, very very poorly.

murphaph · 10-08-2019 07:31AM

If there are further "we're going over the cliff" messages from No. 10 this weekend I'd expect the pound to reach parity with the euro next week. The trend is established now. People are slowly accepting the likelihood of no deal and selling their sterling. If it hits parity panic could set in and we could see a run on the pound.

Borderhopper · 10-08-2019 08:29AM

Popeleo wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

What are they going to export?

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Feelings, belief and Blitz Spirit I guess

And jobs. Lots of jobs.

I suspect their fallback would be to export our old product, people.

Bigus · 10-08-2019 08:35AM

murphaph wrote: »

If there are further "we're going over the cliff" messages from No. 10 this weekend I'd expect the pound to reach parity with the euro next week. The trend is established now. People are slowly accepting the likelihood of no deal and selling their sterling. If it hits parity panic could set in and we could see a run on the pound.

Perhaps the tactic is to beat the Spanish and all the other European tourist destinations into submission with low spending British showing them they need us more then we need them.

Borderhopper · 10-08-2019 08:38AM

Geuze wrote: »

Yes, a sharp drop again tonight.

But not a record low.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html

10yr low = 94.08 pence, 13-Oct 2009

Low since EMU started = 97.855p, 29-Dec 2008

Was this not in part due to the introduction of QE in the UK? Just saying, this previous low was something under their control, whereas the current slide is in the hands of the markets, which are not known for their regards for national economies?

murphaph · 10-08-2019 09:26AM

Borderhopper wrote: »

Was this not in part due to the introduction of QE in the UK? Just saying, this previous low was something under their control, whereas the current slide is in the hands of the markets, which are not known for their regards for national economies?

Yes. What's happening now is out of their control financially. They have political control and could halt and reverse the slide by revoking A50 but we know how likely that is.

No amount of fiscal policy or intervention by the BoE can mitigate against the fundamental error of leaving the world's most successful trading bloc with absolutely no plan.

Up until now the markets (basically human beings) have not believed that a country like the UK would intentionally damage itself in this way. People are starting to think it will actually happen now.

Borderhopper · 10-08-2019 09:36AM

Do they even have real political control, though? It might be an illusion, as they government at the minute is beholden to so many vested interests, that a sensible course of action is nearly impossible right now.

There seems to be a sentiment that Boris has a plan, might not be one we like, but he has a plan. I’m of the strong suspicion that he has no actual plan at all, not one grounded in reality. I think he might actually be closer to Churchill than anyone would like to admit, as his idol’s actions both before PM and throughout the course of the war showed that he didn’t have much of a plan either.

If he’s banking on an election, good luck with that. Elections are chancy at the best of times, and sometimes the tree you cut doesn’t fall the way you want. A crash out is inevitable at this point-the perfect storm.

MrMusician18 · 10-08-2019 09:38AM

murphaph wrote: »

If there are further "we're going over the cliff" messages from No. 10 this weekend I'd expect the pound to reach parity with the euro next week. The trend is established now. People are slowly accepting the likelihood of no deal and selling their sterling. If it hits parity panic could set in and we could see a run on the pound.

There is no definition of what constitutes a run on the pound although a large, crisis precipitating 1 day fall seems to be the general consensus.

I'd say we're witnessing a slow run, but it will need to push through all time lows before it's properly recognised for the crisis this is.

briany · 10-08-2019 10:01AM

Borderhopper wrote: »

If he’s banking on an election, good luck with that. Elections are chancy at the best of times, and sometimes the tree you cut doesn’t fall the way you want. A crash out is inevitable at this point-the perfect storm.

There are 3 options at this point - Deal, no-deal and revoke. We've passed the deadline for a GE or referendum being meaningful.

A deal would require a pretty serious pivot in rhetoric and also a degree of cooperation across the HoC. It would also most likely be a deal that is pretty much what's on the table now and need a bit of rewording to sell it.

Revocation would cause a wave of public anger like we've not seen in the UK in decades. It depends on how much of that Twitter outrage translates into physical action. At the least, the next GE would be a sort of political Red Wedding.

No deal would cause anger, too, but the British public have been warned it's coming for so long that it wouldn't be the bucket of cold water that revoke would. Plus there wouldn't be as much time or opportunity for outrage as no deal catapults the UK into an immediate situation of managing the economic fallout.

prawnsambo · 10-08-2019 10:04AM

Borderhopper wrote: »

Do they even have real political control, though? It might be an illusion, as they government at the minute is beholden to so many vested interests, that a sensible course of action is nearly impossible right now.

There seems to be a sentiment that Boris has a plan, might not be one we like, but he has a plan. I’m of the strong suspicion that he has no actual plan at all, not one grounded in reality. I think he might actually be closer to Churchill than anyone would like to admit, as his idol’s actions both before PM and throughout the course of the war showed that he didn’t have much of a plan either.

If he’s banking on an election, good luck with that. Elections are chancy at the best of times, and sometimes the tree you cut doesn’t fall the way you want. A crash out is inevitable at this point-the perfect storm.

The main problem for Johnson right now is his wafer-thin majority and dependence on the DUP. Every vote in the HoC will be on a knife edge and there's a very strong chance that Tory rebels and/or ERG hardliners could bring his government down. So he has to take the initiative and do it himself. Right now, we're seeing him and his cabinet pander to the leave voters on an industrial scale. He's clearly trying to steal the BP's clothes and consolidate the leave constituency behind the Tories. It seems to be effective and as strategies go, not the worst one (from his pov). Historically GEs tend to sideline the fringe parties (UKIP never really got a look in), so all he really has to do is look more brexity than the BP.

The only wrinkle in that strategy is that there will be a revolt from moderate Tories. I can see a fair few deselections coming and consequently defections to the LibDems. Whether they can win seats will depend on the constituencies concerned and the personal vote that these Tories could command. The strategy could work, but on the other hand, each vote won from the BP could be another lost to the LibDems. And Labour haven't gone away either.

listermint · 10-08-2019 10:14AM

Ever get the impression that there are various countries around the globe who are paying lip service to the UKs trade negotiators talking about being ready at the door etc etc but can't wait to put the boot in.

I get the real impression that Australia and Canada are two such countries and he UKs negotiators won't know what hit them after Oct.

There will be alot of "well things have changed" conversations.

ancapailldorcha · 10-08-2019 10:18AM

listermint wrote: »

Ever get the impression that there are various countries around the globe who are paying lip service to the UKs trade negotiators talking about being ready at the door etc etc but can't wait to put the boot in.

I get the real impression that Australia and Canada are two such countries and he UKs negotiators won't know what hit them after Oct.

There will be alot of "well things have changed" conversations.

Ok. All I can give you here is my word but a chap I know in the DoIT has told me that the Ukraine is agitating to renegotiate the terms of the trade deal the UK wanted to roll over which was originally negotiated on the UK's behalf by the UK.

That's the Ukraine. Then there are Australia and Canada as you've stated who will be out for their own interests. Above those are the huge markets of countries like India, Indonesia & Brazil.

listermint · 10-08-2019 10:20AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Ok. All I can give you here is my word but a chap I know in the DoIT has told me that the Ukraine is agitating to renegotiate the terms of the trade deal the UK wanted to roll over which was originally negotiated on the UK's behalf by the UK.

That's the Ukraine. Then there are Australia and Canada as you've stated who will be out for their own interests. Above those are the huge markets of countries like India, Indonesia & Brazil.

The tables have turned conversations will start in earnest I'm sure they have a load of past experiences with UK negotiators to throw back at them.

Borderhopper · 10-08-2019 10:23AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

Ever get the impression that there are various countries around the globe who are paying lip service to the UKs trade negotiators talking about being ready at the door etc etc but can't wait to put the boot in.

I get the real impression that Australia and Canada are two such countries and he UKs negotiators won't know what hit them after Oct.

There will be alot of "well things have changed" conversations.

Ok. All I can give you here is my word but a chap I know in the DoIT has told me that the Ukraine is agitating to renegotiate the terms of the trade deal the UK wanted to roll over which was originally negotiated on the UK's behalf by the UK.

That's the Ukraine. Then there are Australia and Canada as you've stated who will be out for their own interests. Above those are the huge markets of countries like India, Indonesia & Brazil.

Nothing personal, just business. And, to be fair, nothing the UK haven’t done to other parties in the past. Ourselves and Hong Kong spring to mind.

McMurphy · 10-08-2019 10:27AM

I've been considering booking 2020 holidays now to avail of the early prices, but looking at how sterling is tanking, I'm wondering if I'd be better holding off for a bit yet?

In my mind (for all that's worth:)) surely if sterling is going to reach parity with the euro (and possibly even fall below it) - then the cost of a foreign holiday to stg earners is going to become phenomenally expensive.

You would have to imagine that, in an effort to still be able to still attract the Brits, holiday operators will lower their euro prices to attract them?

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Seth Brundle · 10-08-2019 10:29AM

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I've been considering booking 2020 holidays now to avail of the early prices, but looking at how sterling is tanking, I'm wondering if I'd be better holding off for a bit yet?

In my mind (for all that's worth:)) surely if sterling is going to reach parity with the euro (and possibly even fall below it) - then the cost of a foreign holiday to stg earners is going to become phenomenally expensive.

You would have to imagine that, in an effort to still be able to still attract the Brits, holiday operators will lower their euro prices to attract them?

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Depends who youre booking with but if it is a UK based company, will they still be there when you want to travel?

ancapailldorcha · 10-08-2019 10:30AM

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I've been considering booking 2020 holidays now to avail of the early prices, but looking at how sterling is tanking, I'm wondering if I'd be better holding off for a bit yet?

In my mind (for all that's worth:)) surely if sterling is going to reach parity with the euro (and possibly even fall below it) - then the cost of a foreign holiday to stg earners is going to become phenomenally expensive.

You would have to imagine that, in an effort to still be able to still attract the Brits, holiday operators will lower their euro prices to attract them?

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Are you living in the UK?

I was in Florence a few months after the referendum and was horrified when I was getting only about 98c for every £1 from the ATM's there. Obviously, there's rates and fees involved but it was still a shock.

McMurphy · 10-08-2019 10:35AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Depends who youre booking with but if it is a UK based company, will they still be there when you want to travel?

Possibly booking direct from the hotel (Spanish)

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Are you living in the UK?

I was in Florence a few months after the referendum and was horrified when I was getting only about 98c for every £1 from the ATM's there. Obviously, there's rates and fees involved but it was still a shock.

Ireland.

I might actually end up booking a place this morning with a free cancellation policy, and then look at prices again if things go one way or the other.

I'll tell you what, it's starting to become a reality now, and some of the papers (and I'm talking Irish press) discussing how bad things are in the UK politically wise is a bit worrying now.

Sam Russell · 10-08-2019 10:36AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Are you living in the UK?

I was in Florence a few months after the referendum and was horrified when I was getting only about 98c for every £1 from the ATM's there. Obviously, there's rates and fees involved but it was still a shock.

Off topic.

If you are travelling, you get a better deal if you pre-load your credit card with the full amount you are going to need. There are no charges for drawing from the ATM (as your CC is in credit and you are getting your own money back). If travelling in Euroland, convert the money and get a € CC. The best currency rate is generally by using your CC for all purchase where possible.

Hope that helps.

/Off topic.

Jizique · 10-08-2019 10:37AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

What are they going to export?

Weapons.
Loads of shiny weapons to despots.
And coal, possibly.
And jam

First Up · 10-08-2019 10:41AM

Jizique wrote:

Weapons. Loads of shiny weapons to despots. And coal, possibly. And jam

No, there won't be jam because the East Europeans who used to pick the fruit will be gone home.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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