Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim · 07-08-2019 05:07PM

Originally Posted by ancapailldorcha
think it's possible that he's trying to goad Parliament into taking control and forcing him to go to Brussels to request an extension. That way, he'll have a new scapegoat and can dodgy the missiles which will inevitable be fired at him.

But - and this is what I'm stuck on at the moment - why ? What's the point if at the end of the extension you still go hard out . Assuming cold hard axioms like 'nothing matters but the tory party'

A) if you extend and call an election you've massively caused problems for yourself as Brexit party can point and shriek

No deal out Oct 31 = Brexit party neutralized , party for all , country fked but the Tories survive AND in government

I'm struggling to see anything beyond B for them here

brickster69 · 07-08-2019 05:13PM

declanflynn wrote: »

The Eu have said negotiations are finished

So they have ended negotiations. Have they are mandate to do that ?

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 05:14PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

That is a theory that I have heard quite a lot, but I am not so sure. Johnson, being the unprincipled opportunist that he is, will do whatever is in his own interest. Right now, I can't see the above strategy being in his best interests. Firstly I think it is reasonably clear what he wants, to win a good sized majority for himself as PM. I think he see's the best path to doing that in a No-Deal Brexit.

Right now the counry is devided between Brexiteer and Remainer. With both sides also devided, the Brexiteer side between the Brexit Party and Conservatives and the remain side between Lib-Dems and Labour. The trick for Borris in an election is to unite the Brexiteer side behind him while keeping the remainers devided. If he goes for an election before Brexit, then the Brexiteer side will be devided with alot of the vote going to the Brexit Party. After a no-deal Brexit, however, the Brexit party has no reason to exist. If there was a no-deal at the end of October and an election in mid November then the Conservatives could reasonably expect to pick up the Brexit vote, while there is every reason to expect an angry and frustrated remain camp would be devided in recriminations between the Lib Dem's and Labour.

Borris could get a large majority simply because the other side was too devided to stop him. Then he could do whatever he likes, including for the optimists among us, ditch the DUP and do a quick deal with the EU not unlike the deal on offer now with backstop included. Remember, no-deal is not the end. The UK and the EU will still need a deal, and if a Johnson Government is willing and able to accept the deal after Brexit that May could not get through before Brexit, then I think the EU would find a way to put the genie back in the bottle as far as trade relations go for an interim period while both sides settle in for the long slog of talks to finalise the future arangement.

If he plays his cards right, he could, maybe, be the PM who delivers no-deal Brexit and also saves the UK from no-deal Brexit. But that is very much a glass half full picture of where all this is headed.

For many British people, the status of Ireland is a bit of a blur. There are plenty who think the ROI is a 'UK region', others think NI is part of the Republic etc.

Even when Brexiteers complain about Varadkar, there's probably a good few who think he's like Nicola Sturgeon and a first minister from one of the regions.

Sam Russell · 07-08-2019 05:15PM

brickster69 wrote: »

So they have ended negotiations. Have they are mandate to do that ?

The EU have ratified the agreement - fully. The UK have not. The EU do not need a mandate anymore - the job is done.

lawred2 · 07-08-2019 05:18PM

brickster69 wrote: »

So they have ended negotiations. Have they are mandate to do that ?

well yeah... from 26 nationally elected parliaments who ALL ratified the agreed deal

brickster69 · 07-08-2019 05:21PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The EU have ratified the agreement - fully. The UK have not. The EU do not need a mandate anymore - the job is done.

They did well. Good job

Imreoir2 · 07-08-2019 05:23PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't agree. Firstly because he'd be mad to try and campaign after a hard brexit. The reality would repel all lies. The chaos at ports and shortages in supermarkets would be hard to ignore and even harder to spin. And secondly because the blame would fall squarely on his shoulders. That's something he would sell his (undetermined number of) children to avoid.

And regardless of all that, the EU could not reinstate the WA after a hard brexit. It would breach EU law to in effect, grant membership to a third country in that way. There isn't a mechanism and would never get through the EuCo.

I don't think the crash will be as sharp a day one shock as some people expect. Lets take a timeline of No-Deal happening at the end of October, withe an election taking place two weeks later. The election campaign itself would be talking place in the first weeks of no-deal, before the worst effects are felt. For Brexiteers this will probably be a time of joy. They got what they wanted and it will be months before the full consequences of the severe economic impact is felt with job losses etc. Food/medicine shortages wont really have begun to bite becasue of the prep already done to stockpile the essentials. The EU has already said that it will take unilateral steps to soften the blow on the EU side in the first instance. These measures wont last for too long in most cases but in the first few weeks would soften the initial blow.

As for the EU, I am not going to pretend to know the legalities, but I don't think it would be impossible to give a transititon period to the UK, which is legally no longer a member, a month after Brexit happens given that this is exactly what they were planning to do on the eve of Brexit under the WA.

prawnsambo · 07-08-2019 05:29PM

trellheim wrote: »

But - and this is what I'm stuck on at the moment - why ? What's the point if at the end of the extension you still go hard out . Assuming cold hard axioms like 'nothing matters but the tory party'

A) if you extend and call an election you've massively caused problems for yourself as Brexit party can point and shriek

No deal out Oct 31 = Brexit party neutralized , party for all , country fked but the Tories survive AND in government

I'm struggling to see anything beyond B for them here

A) If you're forced into an extension due to an election brought about by the HoC, you can campaign on the basis that a majority will give you a free hand to sideline the remainers (who having forced the election will also have forced the extension) and promise to deliver brexit when you've got that majority.

I don't think Johnson wants no deal. The WA with a NI only backstop would suit him fine.

BluePlanet · 07-08-2019 05:30PM

brickster69 wrote: »

So they have ended negotiations. Have they are mandate to do that ?

Wow are you not reading?
Google this: Text of Agreement to Extend Brexit.

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 05:34PM

brickster69 wrote: »

So they have ended negotiations. Have they are mandate to do that ?

The reason the negotiations ended was the EU saying "This is as far as we are prepared to budge on the rules of the Single Market. Anything beyond this is too much for us to concede".

The UK negotiators would have been fully aware of this at the time and still are. But it's the British political class who weren't even involved in the talks who are now kicking off and demanding yet more concessions (Johnson, Gove, Cummings etc)

brickster69 · 07-08-2019 05:34PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Wow are you not reading?
Google this: Text of Agreement to Extend Brexit.

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

prawnsambo · 07-08-2019 05:35PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't think the crash will be as sharp a day one shock as some people expect. Lets take a timeline of No-Deal happening at the end of October, withe an election taking place two weeks later. The election campaign itself would be talking place in the first weeks of no-deal, before the worst effects are felt. For Brexiteers this will probably be a time of joy. They got what they wanted and it will be months before the full consequences of the severe economic impact is felt with job losses etc. Food/medicine shortages wont really have begun to bite becasue of the prep already done to stockpile the essentials. The EU has already said that it will take unilateral steps to soften the blow on the EU side in the first instance. These measures wont last for too long in most cases but in the first few weeks would soften the initial blow.

Did you see this slide that Sam Coates obtained?
EA8EJKVUEAgnjeB.jpg:large

Imreoir2 wrote: »

As for the EU, I am not going to pretend to know the legalities, but I don't think it would be impossible to give a transititon period to the UK, which is legally no longer a member, a month after Brexit happens given that this is exactly what they were planning to do on the eve of Brexit under the WA.

Well it's in Article 50: "All treaties cease to apply". Can't get around that really without an agreement reached under that same Article 50. Which is confined to EU member states that have said they are leaving.

BluePlanet · 07-08-2019 05:37PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

It's clear.
Negotiations are over, Withdrawal Agreement is the only game in town.
Political Declarations on future relationship can be fleshed out more.

What part are you having trouble with?

Call me Al · 07-08-2019 05:42PM

First Up wrote: »

Perhaps but the point is that Brexit has no affect on immigration from the UK's former colonies.

I tend to disagree. They will still need immigration to fill jobs in an expanding economy. Where will these come from if not the EU?
I think an unpalatable fact (for many over there) is that this will mean more immigration from former comparatively poor colonies to fill this space.

lawred2 · 07-08-2019 05:43PM

Call me Al wrote: »

I tend to disagree. They will still need immigration to fill jobs in an expanding economy. Where will these come from if not the EU?
I think an unpalatable fact (for many over there) is that this will mean more immigration from former comparatively poor colonies to fill this space.

Extra visas will without doubt be a precondition of any trade talks that the UK would engage in with any prospective partners..

First Up · 07-08-2019 05:48PM

Call me Al wrote:

I tend to disagree. They will still need immigration to fill jobs in an expanding economy. Where will these come from if not the EU? I think an unpalatable fact (for many over there) is that this will mean more immigration from former comparatively poor colonies to fill this space.

Of course they will and immigration from former colonies in Asia, Africa and the West Indies is likely to increase.

But I think you misunderstand my point; there are those who voted for Brexit under the mistaken inpression that the EU is somehow to blame for immigration in general and their geographic ignorance added to their confusion.

sparkling sea · 07-08-2019 06:08PM

Time is of the essence and Boris may not have everything his own way yet. If a majority of MPs of what ever persuasion, won a vote of no confidence and agreed a No deal Brexit situation was an unprecedented national emergency, they maybe able pass an act of parliament revoking article 50, but this is likely to happen only with the help of The Speaker.

Conservative MPs may consider this the best option, as they won't be specifically 'blamed' and they will have 14 days to form a new government. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act , an election will be held if a vote of no confidence in the Government is passed and 14 days elapses without a further motion being passed expressing confidence in the Government. If a governing arrangement of any sort cannot win the confidence of the house, parliment is automatically dissolved 17 days before the date of an election, but Boris still advises the Queen on the date of the election. This is why only a government of unity, who can command confidence from the majority of MPS, can take the bull by the horns and stop a No Deal Brexit.

The other option, as Fintan O Toole has suggested, Sinn Fein could put the country before party by stepping down and allowing 7 remainers to topple Boris. Sinn Fein could hold an EGM of members and request a temporary change to its absentionist mandate but only in relation to the Brexit issue.

brickster69 · 07-08-2019 06:17PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

Time is of the essence and Boris may not have everything his own way yet. If a majority of MPs of what ever persuasion, won a vote of no confidence and agreed a No deal Brexit situation was an unprecedented national emergency, they maybe able pass an act of parliament revoking article 50, but this is likely to happen only with the help of The Speaker.

Conservative MPs may consider this the best option, as they won't be specifically 'blamed' and they will have 14 days to form a new government. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act , an election will be held if a vote of no confidence in the Government is passed and 14 days elapses without a further motion being passed expressing confidence in the Government. If a governing arrangement of any sort cannot win the confidence of the house, parliment is automatically dissolved 17 days before the date of an election, but Boris still advises the Queen on the date of the election. This is why only a government of unity, who can command confidence from the majority of MPS, can take the bull by the horns and stop a No Deal Brexit.

The other option, as Fintan O Toole has suggested, Sinn Fein could put the country before party by stepping down and allowing 7 remainers to topple Boris. Sinn Fein could hold an EGM of members and request a temporary change to its absentionist mandate but only in relation to the Brexit issue.

Have you considered how many Labour Mp's will be watching all of this going and vote for the Government. I reckon Labour has more or less destroyed itself.

trellheim · 07-08-2019 06:24PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

A) If you're forced into an extension due to an election brought about by the HoC, you can campaign on the basis that a majority will give you a free hand to sideline the remainers (who having forced the election will also have forced the extension) and promise to deliver brexit when you've got that majority.

I don't think Johnson wants no deal. The WA with a NI only backstop would suit him fine.

But why bother ? no deal from the tory ERG point of view is simple and delivers Brexit on time as delivered. Like I said if you assume nothing but Tory self-interest - and that's been a recurring theme all along - Hard Brexit is the obvious choice

BonnieSituation · 07-08-2019 06:35PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

Please stop. This is infuriating.

BonnieSituation · 07-08-2019 06:38PM

sparkling sea wrote: »

The other option, as Fintan O Toole has suggested, Sinn Fein could put the country before party by stepping down and allowing 7 remainers to topple Boris. Sinn Fein could hold an EGM of members and request a temporary change to its absentionist mandate but only in relation to the Brexit issue.

The other option?

This is not an option. It's pure madness from O'Toole. It's barely credible. And the sort of thing that if you had read it on here you'd dismiss it out of hand. Nonsense.

Professor Moriarty · 07-08-2019 06:39PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Have you considered how many Labour Mp's will be watching all of this going and vote for the Government. I reckon Labour has more or less destroyed itself.

Labour MPs who will vote against their whip to keep a very right wing Tory party in power so that the Tories can destroy the economy by doing exactly what the vast majority of Labour party members do not want? I'd be interested in names and numbers.

FrancieBrady · 07-08-2019 06:43PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The other option?

This is not an option. It's pure madness from O'Toole. It's barely credible. And the sort of thing that if you had read it on here you'd dismiss it out of hand. Nonsense.

O'Toole is running out of things to say about Brexit. I think he may have thought this would get some of viral traction. But he didn't model what would happen if his Baldrickian cunning plan looked like working. There would be even more mayhem in the UK parliament.

trellheim · 07-08-2019 06:50PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

That is true. All freely entered and signed up to by the Her Majesty's Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the current parliament, only a few weeks back, if you needed a memory jog

First Up · 07-08-2019 06:53PM

FrancieBrady wrote:

O'Toole is running out of things to say about Brexit. I think he may have thought this would get some of viral traction. But he didn't model what would happen if his Baldrickian cunning plan looked like working. There would be even more mayhem in the UK parliament.

I wouldn't waste energy on trying to figure out what is going to happen in the UK. Nobody in the EU is.

The UK has created an almighty mess and everyone can see they are in serious trouble. But its a mess of their own making and for them to clean up.

Ireland and the rest of the EU is putting its energy into building the future without them. The UK is a sideshow.

brickster69 · 07-08-2019 06:53PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Labour MPs who will vote against their whip to keep a very right wing Tory party in power so that the Tories can destroy the economy by doing exactly what the vast majority of Labour party members do not want? I'd be interested in names and numbers.

I would love to have a bet that more Labour MP's would vote against Labour than Conservatives would in a VONC if Labour commited to stopping Brexit. They know fine well they would have a better chance of being elected again even as an independent.

ambro25 · 07-08-2019 06:54PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

eeeh none, actually: 7 months were granted to the UK in good faith, for sorting themselves out and getting the WA signed, rather than end up out on their a55 without any degree of preparations overnight.

It was a massive favour the EU did the UK. And the UK still got around 3 months' worth of it running now.

Now, for a next extension starting on Halloween, yes: now you're talking. Expect a boatload of strings attached.

Nobody will be forcing the UK's hand, mind. No more so than the last time. And the UK may well not get it anyway, even if it accepts all the conditions.

BluePlanet · 07-08-2019 07:01PM

ambro25 wrote: »

eeeh none, actually: 7 months were granted to the UK in good faith, for sorting themselves out and getting the WA signed, rather than end up out on their a55 without any degree of preparations overnight.

It was a massive favour the EU did the UK. And the UK still got around 3 months' worth of it running now.

Now, for a next extension starting on Halloween, yes: now you're talking. Expect a boatload of strings attached.

Nobody will be forcing the UK's hand, mind. No more so than the last time. And the UK may well not get it anyway, even if it accepts all the conditions.

The media are really not doing a good job here.
The Tory's are basically pissing all over the 'Agreement to Extend Brexit ' by wasting everybody's time trying to re-open it.
Nobody is calling them out on this, why?

They have certainly scuppered any goodwill the EU would have for them.

Professor Moriarty · 07-08-2019 07:02PM

brickster69 wrote: »

I would love to have a bet that more Labour MP's would vote against Labour than Conservatives would in a VONC if Labour commited to stopping Brexit. They know fine well they would have a better chance of being elected again even as an independent.

Which Labour MPs will vote against their party and its members' wishes and vote for a very right wing Tory government and for a No Deal Brexit - thus keeping that very right wing Tory party in government?

Popeleo · 07-08-2019 07:03PM

brickster69 wrote: »

You have been played mate, in lots of ways. Eu know how but no one on here.

Such a high standard of post. Do keep it up, dear boy!

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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