Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio · 07-08-2019 12:46AM

It should be pointed out that frustration is ultimately directed at the UK political elite i.e. those who are driving this disaster (I could retain some empathy with the average person). It is the privileged Eton/ Oxbridge/ whatever gang who have constructed and conducted this circus, and it is they who have let down and lied to the population for so many years now, and with no accountability.

NHS lies on a bus - no accountability
Immigration lies on billboards - no accountability
Illegal funding - no accountability
Electioneering malpractice - no accountability
Foreign interference - no accountability
Windrush etc.

These guys themselves tolerate, and are up to, all sorts. They are fancy free. A number of the cabinet have made huge blunders and embarassed themselves massively over the last few years, yet they just plough on nonetheless. Not so long ago, people would quietly resign from public life for these things. Many of the top Tories have no shame whatsoever - consider David Davis.

People need to be held accountable for their failures/ mistakes, and the UK needs to ensure proper order in government and its institutions. They are pointing the finger at others, but assumed high standards in the UK have been seemingly lost, or are slipping, and the integrity of their system is under question regardless of Brexit.

Labour are of course deserving of their share of ire too in that they have let the Tories away with all of this and have not held the government to account. So much so that good MPs actually left them for that reason. Labour have failed to ensure proper order and have failed to engage with the public in a meaningful way. I presume this is largely due to Corbyn's vapid and dithering leadership.

reslfj · 07-08-2019 01:08AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Most UK cars are exported and so will face 10% tariffs.
For generic volume cars the profit margin is about 4%.
You've just made previously profitable industries completely uneconomic.

So you'd need to subsidise an industry for perhaps seven years

The UK can't subsidise car production to overcome tariffs and expect to get away with it.
The car companies will side with the WTO and EU27 and not the UK or their own UK assembly lines.

Besides subsidising would also be extremely costly to the UK and feed the subsidies directly into the EU's budget. This is a non option, I should think.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

....
UK cars are only about 41% local content. [/URL] And that's not counting the % of parts the UK suppliers import and resell and under Rules Of Origin you can't ignore those imports.

The UK auto industry was earlier this year saying that some standard cars had down to a mere 25% UK value added - huge gab up to the 55% needed.

But total production reduction/stop may not happen on Brexit day nor e.g on day+30. These large companies will accept a loss for a shorter period until production has been moved.

Honda will in 2021 close in Swindon, but they may not reduce production earlier if the pound is low enough, the new FTA with Japan hasn't reached the lower tariff for cars yet or they may produce simply because they are in need of fossil powered cars (the old model range).

Don't expect big companies to act in panic - they have the money to do things in a controlled way.

Lars

J Mysterio · 07-08-2019 01:19AM

One of the most significant problems is a majority of the aforementioned political elite are and have been cynically manipulating their countrymen with what they know to be false for their own ends, for some time.

Some of these are surely idelogues, but others who have spurred things on must have a vested interest in Brexit - disaster capitalists/ followers of the Shock Doctrine. The problem is that this transference soon becomes a cancer and there are now a lot of people in the UK with extreme (and illogical) views.

The unholy bonds twixt UK politics and their suspect tabloid media have assuredly allowed a succession of lies over many years to soak into the national consciousness/ lexicon and this has been exacerbated and accelerated by irresponsible politicians. This can/ did/ is becoming a thing which they no longer control - they have wrecked the UK.

They will need to be held accountable. If not now, then in the Brexit Shambles Mad Max Wasteland post mortem report.

reslfj · 07-08-2019 01:30AM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

What? 27 countries governing in the EU are an oliarchy? What does that make the UK with Cummings / Johnson / Gove tripartite?

Or with the Barclay brothers, Rupert Murdoch and Richard Desmond ?

Lars

Strazdas · 07-08-2019 01:35AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

One of the most significant problems is a majority of the aforementioned political elite are and have been cynically manipulating their countrymen with what they know to be false for their own ends, for some time.

Some of these are surely idelogues, but others who have spurred things on must have a vested interest in Brexit - disaster capitalists/ followers of the Shock Doctrine. The problem is that this transference soon becomes a cancer and there are now a lot of people in the UK with extreme (and illogical) views.

The unholy bonds twixt UK politics and their suspect tabloid media have assuredly allowed a succession of lies over many years to soak into the national consciousness/ lexicon and this has been exacerbated and accelerated by irresponsible politicians. This can/ did/ is becoming a thing which they no longer control - they have wrecked the UK.

They will need to be held accountable. If not now, then in the Brexit Shambles Mad Max Wasteland post mortem report.

80% of newspaper sales in the UK are of right wing papers. This disaster has been coming down the tracks for a long time, probably for decades. The public have been brainwashed by their media into believing all sorts of falsehoods. Maybe there was a touch of inevitability about the whole thing blowing up now.

BluePlanet · 07-08-2019 03:07AM

Varadkar and Johnson ‘planning to meet’, says Minister
Paschal Donohoe confirms Taoiseach’s and PM’s offices in contact during BBC interview
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/varadkar-and-johnson-planning-to-meet-says-minister-1.3978991

Watch now as Guido Fawkes, SNIP. Use the correct names please. and other pro Brexit media run with this as the Irish are blinking.

Mr.Wemmick · 07-08-2019 07:37AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

One of the most significant problems is a majority of the aforementioned political elite are and have been cynically manipulating their countrymen with what they know to be false for their own ends, for some time.

Some of these are surely idelogues, but others who have spurred things on must have a vested interest in Brexit - disaster capitalists/ followers of the Shock Doctrine. The problem is that this transference soon becomes a cancer and there are now a lot of people in the UK with extreme (and illogical) views.

The unholy bonds twixt UK politics and their suspect tabloid media have assuredly allowed a succession of lies over many years to soak into the national consciousness/ lexicon and this has been exacerbated and accelerated by irresponsible politicians. This can/ did/ is becoming a thing which they no longer control - they have wrecked the UK.

They will need to be held accountable. If not now, then in the Brexit Shambles Mad Max Wasteland post mortem report.

Strazdas wrote: »

80% of newspaper sales in the UK are of right wing papers. This disaster has been coming down the tracks for a long time, probably for decades. The public have been brainwashed by their media into believing all sorts of falsehoods. Maybe there was a touch of inevitability about the whole thing blowing up now.

You both nailed it. This exactly.

Interesting the way we've all fallen for the idea that the country will be spilt with public outrage if brexit is not delivered, etc. But when have the political class ever given a toss about the public. The country's beloved NHS has been torn to shreds and the public just sit and take it, like sheep. Why? Because the papers tell them to. The right wing press and political class use the excuse of public outrage only to give themselves the elbow room to deal with the immediate damage inflicted on the party by the ERG and Farage. If they had a clear road, and no serious underlying threat within the tories, brexit would've been kicked so far down the road, it would've been forgotten about within a couple of years. With a grumble and a moan, it would be been seen off.

This is a tory sh!t show through and through. And the real crime for the public is that they do not have real political choices. The balance is simply not there.

Inevitability, indeed.

L1011 · 07-08-2019 07:49AM

Reach - the former Trinity Mirror - retaining the Express line to protect sales is the most sickening part of it all really

kuro68k · 07-08-2019 08:42AM

briany wrote: »

If there were too many burqas in the street, pre-Brexit, there will still be too many in the street, post-Brexit. It would be 'interesting' to see where the xenophobic part of Brexit goes when the number of brown faces and veiled faces doesn't really diminish after Oct. 31st.

They voted for more brown faces and burkas. People like Rees-Mogg were very clear that post-brexit the immigration situation for those countries would get easier. He and many others promised that.

Since they all knew exactly what they were voting for an were not mislead at all, they must have wanted that.

devnull · 07-08-2019 08:47AM

Not sure if it's been covered already but there's tlak on SKy this morning that the Tory party have a three point plan to thawt any chance of No Deal being topped by democratically elected representatives.

The three weapons they have are
- Prorouging Parliament
- Calling an election with an extremely long lead time
- Boris refusing to leave Downing Street if losing a vote of no confidence and squatting there.

Basically the feeling is now that they will do anything to push No Deal through and are effectively now saying that they will cease to be politicians and will simply start dictating how it will work like a true dictator.

Democracy it ain't.

Popeleo · 07-08-2019 08:48AM

Of course, it is not just newspapers that are the playthings of very rich men. The "new media" is also affected by this, except it is probably easier to hide financial ties.

It is amazing that someone like Brendan O'Neill is getting so much airtime when financial links between Spiked and the Koch brothers (of Tea Party infamy) are public knowledge. But, you know, every debate needs balance....

How US billionaires are fuelling the hard-right cause in Britain

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/07/us-billionaires-hard-right-britain-spiked-magazine-charles-david-koch-foundation

Peregrinus · 07-08-2019 08:56AM

devnull wrote: »

Not sure if it's been covered already but there's tlak on SKy this morning that the Tory party have a three point plan to thawt any chance of No Deal being topped by democratically elected representatives.

The three weapons they have are
- Prorouging Parliament
- Calling an election with an extremely long lead time
- Boris refusing to leave Downing Street if losing a vote of no confidence and squatting there.

Basically the feeling is now that they will do anything to push No Deal through and are effectively now saying that they will cease to be politicians and will simply start dictating how it will work like a true dictator.

Democracy it ain't.

Well, in fairness, there's also the view that Johnson is promoting talk of this kind precisely to goad Parliament into acting to stop his drive for the cliff-edge. The thinking here is that he wants it stopped; he just doesn't want to wear the responsiblity for stopping it.

It's his "stop me before I kill again!" strategy.

First Up · 07-08-2019 08:59AM

kuro68k wrote:

Since they all knew exactly what they were voting for an were not mislead at all, they must have wanted that.

The typical reader of the Sun wouldn't be familiar with the nuances of international migration. "Keep the darkies out" was a line famously quoted in one Brexit forum.

I have no doubt that many voted for Brexit because they don't like Pakistanis.

Will they ever learn? Who cares?

Roger_007 · 07-08-2019 09:04AM

kuro68k wrote: »

They voted for more brown faces and burkas. People like Rees-Mogg were very clear that post-brexit the immigration situation for those countries would get easier. He and many others promised that.

Since they all knew exactly what they were voting for an were not mislead at all, they must have wanted that.

What the Brexiteers were advocating was that immigration should only on a 'points' based system. What they want is only people with the qualifications and skills that, (in their view), will benefit the economy.
What seems not to have occurred to them is that the result of this policy would be that all the low-skill jobs would exclusively be occupied the 'natives'. I'm not sure that many leave voters voted for that outcome.

InTheShadows · 07-08-2019 09:07AM

devnull wrote: »

Not sure if it's been covered already but there's tlak on SKy this morning that the Tory party have a three point plan to thawt any chance of No Deal being topped by democratically elected representatives.

The three weapons they have are
- Prorouging Parliament
- Calling an election with an extremely long lead time
- Boris refusing to leave Downing Street if losing a vote of no confidence and squatting there.

Basically the feeling is now that they will do anything to push No Deal through and are effectively now saying that they will cease to be politicians and will simply start dictating how it will work like a true dictator.

Democracy it ain't.

It is democracy. It's parliament doing all it can to enforce the democratic will of the people.

swampgas · 07-08-2019 09:08AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think it's unfair to suggest of Corbyn that he is a hard brexiteer who secretly wants a no deal crash-out. I know quite a few people hold this view, and i've seen it written by at least one serious commentator, but i dont believe it and i dont believe i've seen a scintilla of evidence in support of it in the 3 years since the referendum. I think corbyn can be criticised for many things, he has been weak on all the main issues no question, but the criticism can be overdone and the media, right and left, certainly does him no favours.

I don't really have an axe to grind with Corbyn (apart from him being totally dishonest about his position), but my reading of everything he has said and done so far is that his least preferred option is EU membership, and that he is prepared to gamble on the UK crashing out with no-deal rather than risk Article 50 being revoked or a future arrangement that resembles full membership in terms of constraints on what he might do as PM.

Johnson and Corbyn seem to have come to the same conclusion: the withdrawal agreement is not acceptable, staying fully in is not acceptable, so the only option is to crash out and then work on new arrangements with the EU afterwards.

If he really does want to stay in the EU, well his leadership has been so weak and ineffectual that he may as well be a hard Brexiter. He has neither articulated a strong remain argument nor has he stood down as leader to let someone else do so. He and his supporters are, unwittingly perhaps, assisting the likes of Rees-Mogg, Johnson and the ERG rather than doing what the majority of Labour Party members claim to believe in.

Peregrinus · 07-08-2019 09:11AM

InTheShadows wrote: »

It is democracy. It's parliament doing all it can to enforce the democratic will of the people.

Huh? It's not Parliament doing anything at all. It's unelected bureacrats like Dominic Cummings doing everything they can to prevent Parliament from takign control of the situation.

Christy42 · 07-08-2019 09:12AM

InTheShadows wrote: »

It is democracy. It's parliament doing all it can to enforce the democratic will of the people.

Didn't Boris Johnson say no government would be stupid enough to take them out of the single market? Did they vote for no deal? Did they vote for the WA? Did they vote for Norway style deal?

The question was badly phrased so we don't know what they voted for.

Right now it is like asking someone if they want to go to the shops and taking them on a 3 hour journey across the country to a Tesco 100 miles away shouting at them that this was their choice and they wanted to go to the shops. And sure wasn't it absolutely clear that the question meant the Tesco miles away instead of the one around the corner.

beggars_bush · 07-08-2019 09:17AM

First Up wrote: »

The typical reader of the Sun wouldn't be familiar with the nuances of international migration. "Keep the darkies out" was a line famously quoted in one Brexit forum.

I have no doubt that many voted for Brexit because they don't like Pakistanis.

Will they ever learn? Who cares?

You cannot yearn for a return of The Empire, when all the peoples from the countries you subjugated followed you home; and then you complain about them

LuckyLloyd · 07-08-2019 09:31AM

InTheShadows wrote: »

It is democracy. It's parliament doing all it can to enforce the democratic will of the people.

I do wonder sometimes whether western people who have essentially been radicalised by a media divide and conquer assault realise it? Are people cognisant of how they have been manipulated in a grand game of disaster capitalism?

murphaph · 07-08-2019 09:32AM

I was originally hoping that the whole thing would be stopped somehow but now we see the vitriol aimed at us in Ireland for daring to put the peace process and an open border on our island ahead of Brexit. If it is stopped we will be painted as the Eternal Paddy.

I would much rather now that somehow Johnson calls a GE and wins a majority and can throw the DUP under the bus, deliver the NI only backstop and take GB out of the EU to see what it's like outside.

It would be the icing on the cake to see the NI economy prosper inside the EU (effectively) while GB goes into decline. That would hopefully show the idiots once and for all that being in the EU makes sense.

Fed up of the UK now.

Leroy42 · 07-08-2019 09:34AM

One thing that is clear is that politicians are no longer accountable for previous positions or statements. Gove came out yesterday saying that it was wrong and sad that the EU won't renegotiate yet during the ref he said that the UK would hold all the cards in any talks.

Johnson has said it would be crazy to leave the SM, yet here he is almost defying the HoC to get it.

We have people like JRM claiming that the EU took away sovereignty and now are more than happy to see the HoL and HoC completely sidelined in order to get what they want.

I think at this stage a crash out is really the only option, even if Johnson was to do a uturn and accept the WA, can anyone really have any confidence that it would be adhered to? They have zero credibility.

I see that BBC are doing a No Deal day, looking at the realities of No Deal. I only heard a small bit, when someone talked about the possibile issues with No Deal, and then then had another person on about the opportunities. Of course the issues were pretty clear (tariffs, delays, costs, inflation, job losses etc) whilst the opportunities were nebulous at best (future growth, new markets, chance to try new things).

Faisal Islam is talking about food distribution in No Deal Britain and the supermarkets etc are asking that Competition laws been suspended to allow them to manage the crisis, like one would do in war or in the oil crisis. Just that part alone should have alarms bells ringing. There is no need for a crisis, this is all under their control.

So the result of Brexit will be the abandonment of competition laws! Really. Of course employment laws won't be far behind, a given since the Tory party have no problem with Fixed Hour Contracts.

FrancieBrady · 07-08-2019 09:40AM

murphaph wrote: »

I was originally hoping that the whole thing would be stopped somehow but now we see the vitriol aimed at us in Ireland for daring to put the peace process and an open border on our island ahead of Brexit. If it is stopped we will be painted as the Eternal Paddy.

Our revenge will be the laughter of our finance minister delivering the surplus budgets for a UI!

Nody · 07-08-2019 09:42AM

beggars_bush wrote: »

You cannot yearn for a return of The Empire, when all the peoples from the countries you subjugated followed you home; and then you complain about them

Of course you can; same way Brexiteers say there is a technological solution for NI in the same breath they can't accept the backstop as it would lock them into remaining in EU forever. Facts or logic does not need to apply; heck look at Boris interview on the GATT rules...

Seth Brundle · 07-08-2019 09:44AM

kuro68k wrote: »

They voted for more brown faces and burkas. People like Rees-Mogg were very clear that post-brexit the immigration situation for those countries would get easier. He and many others promised that.

Since they all knew exactly what they were voting for an were not mislead at all, they must have wanted that.

So they all knew what they were voting for?
Why then the need to google what the EU was? Even the poisonous Express "newspaper" writes

HOURS after the UK voted to leave the European Union, "What is the EU?" has become the second-most Google search term on the issue.

Google Trends showed the top query directed to the search engine was "What does it mean to leave the EU?"

The third most searched question on the EU was "Which countries are in the EU?", followed by "What will happen now we've left the EU?"

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/683240/google-brexit-eu-referendum-vote-leave

Given, as you say, they all knew, did they all choose to have the same type of Brexit?
By ticking the yes option, did everyone choose to leave the single market?
By ticking the yes option, did everyone choose to leave the customs union?

As for the brown faces nonsense, Farage's group pushed the xenophobic angle in order to keep out the foreigners. So were people only listening to JRM and not Farage or are you wrong?

Valhallapt · 07-08-2019 09:54AM

What I’ll never understand is their insistence to leave everything all at once. I get that they want to leave SM and CU, but why couldn’t they manage this with a phased plan.

12 months after having voted to leave they could have left all the political institutions of the EU, aka the Norway plus model, in the scheme of things this would have been easy to implement.

After that settles down, they could give themselves another year to leave the customs union, some trade offs in NI would have to happen, the size of the changes would be smaller in a presumably less febrile atmosphere.

Then a few years after they make plans to leave the single market, probably the most complex transition with the biggest impact on NI, but the backstop wouldn't be seems as so undemocratic as now they are outside the EU it’s more of a technical protocol to ensure a future FTA.

FTA negotiations continue and Ireland has a veto it wields to minimize impact on the border to get a FTA that works for Ireland.

Doesn’t fit the disaster capatilism model though....

storker · 07-08-2019 10:20AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Our revenge will be the laughter of our finance minister delivering the surplus budgets for a UI!

A United Ireland could well turn out to be as much of a money-pit for Dublin as Northern Ireland has been for London.

Bit cynical · 07-08-2019 10:20AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

FTA negotiations continue and Ireland has a veto it wields to minimize impact on the border to get a FTA that works for Ireland.

I don't think Ireland's veto is that valuable to us since in the case of future negotiations between the UK and the EU, Ireland will want an FTA more than the EU as a whole.

Enzokk · 07-08-2019 10:22AM

devnull wrote: »

Not sure if it's been covered already but there's tlak on SKy this morning that the Tory party have a three point plan to thawt any chance of No Deal being topped by democratically elected representatives.

The three weapons they have are
- Prorouging Parliament
- Calling an election with an extremely long lead time
- Boris refusing to leave Downing Street if losing a vote of no confidence and squatting there.

Basically the feeling is now that they will do anything to push No Deal through and are effectively now saying that they will cease to be politicians and will simply start dictating how it will work like a true dictator.

Democracy it ain't.

Peregrinus has mentioned it before, but the irony of leaving the EU due to the unelected bureaucrats running it only to have one as the brains behind the PM.

PETER OBORNE: Why I fear the future of Britain (and Boris Johnson) is now in the hands of unelected Svengali Dominic Cummings

Dominic Cummings, who is today installed in Downing Street as arguably the second most powerful man in Britain, first came to public attention when played by Benedict Cumberbatch in Channel 4's Brexit: The Uncivil War.

The drama told the behind-the-scenes story of Vote Leave's successful campaign in the 2016 EU referendum.

Cumberbatch interpreted Cummings, the campaign director, as a sinister anti-hero and eminence grise controlling events.

Carole Cadwalladr warned and was vocal about that Channel 4 program and the dangers of humanizing Cummins, and so it has turned out to be.

I will just have one more quote from the article on the dangers of Cummins,

Tony Blair was also a creature of his powerful adviser, Alastair Campbell. They showed equal arrogance and contempt for Parliament.

They, too, were indifferent to truth. They, too, had little integrity. The Blair/Campbell double act ended in the tragedy of the Iraq war, the unnecessary deaths of countless Iraqis, 179 brave British service personnel and ultimately the rise of Islamic State.

We can only hope that the double act of Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings has a happier outcome.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, in fairness, there's also the view that Johnson is promoting talk of this kind precisely to goad Parliament into acting to stop his drive for the cliff-edge. The thinking here is that he wants it stopped; he just doesn't want to wear the responsiblity for stopping it.

It's his "stop me before I kill again!" strategy.

On the Remainiacs podcast last week it was mentioned the danger of Johnson is that he actually wants to be the best PM ever to prove the doubters wrong. This means he is more likely to take risks and his pronouncement of (and I am paraphrasing here) not seeing risk but opportunities speaks to this.

I have no idea what the plan is, but my worst case scenario is that his team believes that he can cement his place in history by making a success of Brexit. That would eliminate the Brexit Party and if it goes well would win over the moderates once more. Then he would have a free hand for years to come.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see that BBC are doing a No Deal day, looking at the realities of No Deal. I only heard a small bit, when someone talked about the possibile issues with No Deal, and then then had another person on about the opportunities. Of course the issues were pretty clear (tariffs, delays, costs, inflation, job losses etc) whilst the opportunities were nebulous at best (future growth, new markets, chance to try new things).

Faisal Islam is talking about food distribution in No Deal Britain and the supermarkets etc are asking that Competition laws been suspended to allow them to manage the crisis, like one would do in war or in the oil crisis. Just that part alone should have alarms bells ringing. There is no need for a crisis, this is all under their control.

So the result of Brexit will be the abandonment of competition laws! Really. Of course employment laws won't be far behind, a given since the Tory party have no problem with Fixed Hour Contracts.

I think what will happen is that there will be laws suspended to mitigate the worst of no-deal at the beginning. This would include the competition rules that you mention to ensure the shortages are held to an acceptable level. In the first few weeks after no-deal after a week of panic you will have 2 weeks or so of calm where the shelves will be managed and the predictions of doom and gloom will appear to have been project fear.

The Brexiteers will at this stage claim victory, ignoring why this has happened and being emboldened to shun the EU and head to the US and talks with Trump.

FrancieBrady · 07-08-2019 10:22AM

storker wrote: »

A United Ireland could well turn out to be as much of a money-pit for Dublin as it has been for London.

As a solution at the moment, it is of huge value:

To the rest of the EU
To London
And to us.

Each of the above benefit differently and to varying degrees.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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