Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Sierra Oscar · 03-08-2019 10:20PM

Just looking at the Sunday papers, some mad stuff in there.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157755040951611393

Hard to see where the compromise is going to come from.

Stop moaning ffs · 03-08-2019 10:34PM

Hope it’s ok to post this again in case anyone missed it. Fascinating interview on brexit by the ever insightful billy Bragg on the Irish Times podcast. Cuts exactly very to why this happened and how the mindset have been given over to ‘monomania’ and propaganda

Give it a spin. You’ll be glad you did

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/irish-times-inside-politics/id794389685?i=1000445935266

prawnsambo · 03-08-2019 10:38PM

McGiver wrote: »

Quickest but also the most expensive. Because hard Brexit would throw NI into a deep recession, unemployment, debts, deficits, so going ahead with UI in the such condition is significantly more costlier and also difficult in terms of economic asset well as political integration.

It would be a long time before we'd be picking up the bill for NI. A UI would take years. At least a decade before it would be complete.

road_high · 03-08-2019 10:40PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Just looking at the Sunday papers, some mad stuff in there.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157755040951611393

Hard to see where the compromise is going to come from.

If they’re so ready and able for No deal then why the major focus on stopping hit? I thought they were so prepared and gung ho that surely the press would be extolling the benefits accrued on 01st November next.

Stop moaning ffs · 03-08-2019 10:47PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

It would be a long time before we'd be picking up the bill for NI. A UI would take years. At least a decade before it would be complete.

That would be another divorce bill for the uk. Possibly more expensive than €39 billion. And the rest funded by the EU until stabilisation economically.

Gas part is Britain has no say in that either and lets be honest. They’d be happy to see the back of Northern Ireland. Economically and socially.
When they’re rarely aware it exists it only causes them hassle.
Hello backstop.

Enzokk · 03-08-2019 11:11PM

Steve Barclay has some big words for Barnier,

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1157749358265327616?s=20

Basically it is to give the UK what they want or they will leave without a deal on October 31st. There is many reasons why the EU should give in, the recent EU elections mean that 61% of MEPs are new. How that squares with a new deal is a mystery, but it is a reason.

Then there is the fact that the backstop has been voted down 3 times already. This is reason for the EU to give in, because the UK cannot accept the deal on the table for them to leave. The plan is for alternative arrangements to sort out the border and the talks on the border to be settled once trade talks start. If only that arch remainer David Davis hadn't given in when the negotiations started.

But the real reason why a new deal should be given is that the UK should have an orderly exit from the EU. It is in the interest of all sides. So the one side has to work very hard and to give in or the other side will throw a tantrum and leave. These are supposed to be the adults in the room, threatening to hurt others because they don't get their way. Screw them, let them leave and come crawling back in a few months time. The GBP will have tanked by that stage so getting to agree to the euro will not make that much of a difference.

reslfj · 03-08-2019 11:17PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Just looking at the Sunday papers, some mad stuff in there.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1157755040951611393

Hard to see where the compromise is going to come from.

I'm just saying:
The EU can be surprisingly creative when they feel they and Ireland are pawns in a game. It may not feel pleasant in London.

Lars

road_high · 03-08-2019 11:18PM

So pretty much no reason to change tack then from the EUs perspective.

Stop moaning ffs · 03-08-2019 11:19PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Steve Barclay has some big words for Barnier,

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1157749358265327616?s=20

Basically it is to give the UK what they want or they will leave without a deal on October 31st. There is many reasons why the EU should give in, the recent EU elections mean that 61% of MEPs are new. How that squares with a new deal is a mystery, but it is a reason.

Then there is the fact that the backstop has been voted down 3 times already. This is reason for the EU to give in, because the UK cannot accept the deal on the table for them to leave. The plan is for alternative arrangements to sort out the border and the talks on the border to be settled once trade talks start. If only that arch remainer David Davis hadn't given in when the negotiations started.

But the real reason why a new deal should be given is that the UK should have an orderly exit from the EU. It is in the interest of all sides. So the one side has to work very hard and to give in or the other side will throw a tantrum and leave. These are supposed to be the adults in the room, threatening to hurt others because they don't get their way. Screw them, let them leave and come crawling back in a few months time. The GBP will have tanked by that stage so getting to agree to the euro will not make that much of a difference.

Christ. He wrote that in a tabloid rather than writing to the man he was addressing.
So, this is all window dressing. And blame game. Polished turds for public consumption.

I want them to crash out hard now. Have a little look around and realise the empire is long gone and it’s reality now kicking their notions to death.

Safe to say their retreat back to table with the begging bowl will be much faster than the three years of chasing their tails to bite it off.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-08-2019 11:24PM

I think this is the Tories puffing themselves up, thumping their chests for an election to be honest.

trashcan · 03-08-2019 11:25PM

It's hard to think that they really believe that a deal is possible with this kind of carry on. If they do, and this is their idea of hard nosed negotiating, then the mind just boggles. It's like they are playing poker with a pair of twos, against the EU with four aces, and what's more, the EU can see their hand.

briany · 03-08-2019 11:30PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Steve Barclay has some big words for Barnier,

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1157749358265327616?s=20

Basically it is to give the UK what they want or they will leave without a deal on October 31st. There is many reasons why the EU should give in, the recent EU elections mean that 61% of MEPs are new. How that squares with a new deal is a mystery, but it is a reason.

Then there is the fact that the backstop has been voted down 3 times already. This is reason for the EU to give in, because the UK cannot accept the deal on the table for them to leave. The plan is for alternative arrangements to sort out the border and the talks on the border to be settled once trade talks start. If only that arch remainer David Davis hadn't given in when the negotiations started.

But the real reason why a new deal should be given is that the UK should have an orderly exit from the EU. It is in the interest of all sides. So the one side has to work very hard and to give in or the other side will throw a tantrum and leave. These are supposed to be the adults in the room, threatening to hurt others because they don't get their way. Screw them, let them leave and come crawling back in a few months time. The GBP will have tanked by that stage so getting to agree to the euro will not make that much of a difference.

/Brexiteer hat on

Oh, come now. The GBP tanking in value will be wonderful news for its exporters. The UK will turn this supposed negative into a massive plus!

Look, the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs them. After all, who's going to buy those German cars? The UK holds ALL the cards in this thing, and it's only now that they have a PM with the balls to play them! It's time for the EU to get real, tell Ireland to put a sock in it. When they're ready to come back to the table and talk like adults, then we can do a proper deal.

/Brexiteer hat off

I feel dirty...

Strazdas · 03-08-2019 11:34PM

trashcan wrote: »

It's hard to think that they really believe that a deal is possible with this kind of carry on. If they do, and this is their idea of hard nosed negotiating, then the mind just boggles. It's like they are playing poker with a pair of twos, against the EU with four aces, and what's more, the EU can see their hand.

Reopening negotiations to talk to these loons would be a disastrous move by the EU and well they know it. The Brexiteers are shifty, mendacious and couldn't be trusted to stick to a new deal for five minutes.

listermint · 03-08-2019 11:39PM

They've burned all bridges, I don't think there is a person out there that doesn't have the opinion of leave them off send them on their sorry way.

It's a gas situation altogether go from king maker and the top table making your own rules to exiting like a pauper and having absolutely no power at all.

The country will be stripped by their own vultures within not foreign ones and the people will cheer it on.

Let them taste it and consume it. 2008 will pale in comparison.

MrMusician18 · 03-08-2019 11:40PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think this is the Tories puffing themselves up, thumping their chests for an election to be honest.

You're right imo. The issue with this is that everyone can read their press. The way they've been carrying on its like they think that only people in the UK read their papers and the rest of the world is oblivious to the domestic rhetoric.

McGiver · 03-08-2019 11:47PM

road_high wrote:

It would already be like that without the subvention. Itâ€™s a basket case long before Brexit appeared

Yep but:
Single basket < double basket case

That was my point.

reslfj · 03-08-2019 11:54PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Steve Barclay has some big words for Barnier,

“if the EU takes a “reasonable & sensible approach””

The EU27 is taking the very “reasonable & sensible approach” and says "No No No" to any reopening of the WA - full stop.

Enzokk wrote: »

“... the recent EU elections mean that 61% of MEPs are new.”

The EU parliament is not giving instructions to the EU commission and Michel Barnier. The EU parliament has approved the WA. It will have to approve future deals, but that's it. The number of new MEP is totally irrelevant.
The parliament can stop a deal, but not really advance one.

It's only the EU Council (the PMs) that agrees on the negotiating guidelines given to Michel Barnier and the EU commission.

The EU is a much larger trader (7 times) and a much more powerful negotiator.
We need not only benefits - as a starting point we need 7 times better conditions than we need to offer the UK.

When HMG tells the EU27 it's to late to avoid a 'No Deal' - it's no longer a game of "wif waf", but will be gloves off. Behind Michel Barnier's soft diplomatic words and inside his velvet gloves is an iron fist.

Lars

road_high · 03-08-2019 11:57PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Reopening negotiations to talk to these loons would be a disastrous move by the EU and well they know it. The Brexiteers are shifty, mendacious and couldn't be trusted to stick to a new deal for five minutes.

You even contemplated one concession to these loons it would open up a Pandora’s box of demands. They’d want full on EU benefits without any of the responsibility

road_high · 04-08-2019 12:05AM

listermint wrote: »

They've burned all bridges, I don't think there is a person out there that doesn't have the opinion of leave them off send them on their sorry way.

It's a gas situation altogether go from king maker and the top table making your own rules to exiting like a pauper and having absolutely no power at all.

The country will be stripped by their own vultures within not foreign ones and the people will cheer it on.

Let them taste it and consume it. 2008 will pale in comparison.

I would have been soft leaning before ie “can’t we all sit down and work out sensible arrangements” but after the goings on of recent months the hard line is the only way. And if that means a No Deal then so be it really. These lot aren’t worth the hassle, it’s like negotiating with a cult

reslfj · 04-08-2019 12:06AM

road_high wrote: »

You even contemplated one concession to these loons it would open up a Pandora’s box of demands. They’d want full on EU benefits without any of the responsibility

I think the backstop with the border in the Irish Sea will be the only change the EU27 will accept - and will accept without any objections.

Lars

Enzokk · 04-08-2019 12:25AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think this is the Tories puffing themselves up, thumping their chests for an election to be honest.

But I don't see the end game, have an election without having left and the Brexit Party will have a say in the election. Have an election after they have left and the consequences will be theirs to own. Maybe there is a small window where they have left and the consequences has not been felt, but surely it will be so small as to aim for it would be folly.

The other reason is to be so transparent to try and get the EU to give them their deal that will get through parliament. But we know this deal will break up the EU as they want EU membership without the obligations. Either way the Tories are screwed, right?

reslfj wrote: »

The EU parliament is not giving instructions to the EU commission and Michel Barnier. The EU parliament has approved the WA. It will have to approve future deals, but that's it. The number of new MEP is totally irrelevant.
The parliament can stop a deal, but not really advance one.

It's only the EU Council (the PMs) that agrees on the negotiating guidelines given to Michel Barnier and the EU commission.

The EU is a much larger trader (7 times) and a much more powerful negotiator.
We need not only benefits - as a starting point we need 7 times better conditions than we need to offer the UK.

When HMG tells the EU27 it's to late to avoid a 'No Deal' - it's no longer a game of "wif waf", but will be gloves off. Behind Michel Barnier's soft diplomatic words and inside his velvet gloves is an iron fist.

Lars

I know, he may be right that 61% of MEPs are new, but I also fail to see the relevance of it on a new deal. The European Parliament is not negotiating the deal but they have to approve it. There is zero indication that they will not back the EU Commission so why he should mention it is a mystery.

Seems like it is just something he put in there without much thought or reason.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-08-2019 12:34AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

No, they have secured a valuable trade deal with the Faeroe Islands that allows the Faeroes to land fish into the UK without tariffs. They have secured a deal with Switzerland that allows the Swiss to repatriate their gold. A deal with Southern Africa which allows the UK to continue foreign aid.

Canada have not allowed their EU deal to be rolled over. Australia likewise.

Anyway, check it out here.

98% of Faroese exports are seafood. The UK imports about a third of that. Massive leverage one would think.

UK exports to the Faroes are about 3% of the value of what they import. So there's very little to loose by playing hardball.

The Faroe Islands deal allows them to fish in UK waters, ie. Scottish but not visa versa. And about 8 Tory MPs in Scotland were elected areas were fishing issues were a major concern. And could be lost if Boris goes for a snap election.

Best. Deal. Ever.

The Sauth Effrika deal involved £4Bn in aid for countries in the group. CBA looking up the totals but IIRC they represent about 1.3% of UK exports.

Buying deals at that rate is unsustainable.

Water John · 04-08-2019 12:37AM

He may be seeking to justify looking for a new mandate for talks with the EU, following a GE in the UK. He'll be arguing that a new Gov'nt has a legitimate case to new negotiations to a new deal.
Might be giving Raab too much vision there.

road_high · 04-08-2019 12:39AM

Those Faroese know how to strike a hard deal alright. The one that got away !!

Water John · 04-08-2019 12:42AM

Ask Brian Kerr, they were hard taskmasters. Old viking stock.

Capt'n Midnight · 04-08-2019 12:42AM

briany wrote: »

/Brexiteer hat on

Oh, come now. The GBP tanking in value will be wonderful news for its exporters. The UK will turn this supposed negative into a massive plus!

Look, the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs them. After all, who's going to buy those German cars? The UK holds ALL the cards in this thing, and it's only now that they have a PM with the balls to play them! It's time for the EU to get real, tell Ireland to put a sock in it. When they're ready to come back to the table and talk like adults, then we can do a proper deal.

/Brexiteer hat off

I feel dirty...

All you have to look at how UK exports surged up when Sterling dropped 10% after the referendum.

Exports went up, but not by 10% if measured in Euro or Dollars.

When you live in a country that imports most of it's food and raw materials (like car parts) that eats into buying power.

German car industry costed Brexit at something like €1.2Bn but individual German car companies are paying multiples of that for the emissions scandal. The drop in Sterling is a bigger problem. It's about the same as the new tariffs would be.

Gunmonkey · 04-08-2019 12:49AM

Enzokk wrote: »

I know, he may be right that 61% of MEPs are new, but I also fail to see the relevance of it on a new deal. The European Parliament is not negotiating the deal but they have to approve it. There is zero indication that they will not back the EU Commission so why he should mention it is a mystery.

Seems like it is just something he put in there without much thought or reason.

Just trying to paint Barniers mandate as now being "un-democratic" or such: if Barnier pushes ahead with it (as he is right to do), then the Tories twist it as EU ignoring "the common person" and stamping over democracy and trying to hurt the UK as its "liberating itself from the jack-boots of Johnny-Foreigner in the EU" and other self congratulatory drivel. If Barnier did go back, then they hope the new MEPs will try to force a more pro-UK set of guidelines.

Kinda hilarious of a pro-Brexiter to demand a change in mandate as time has passed and the "voter" makeup has changed; could argue the same of the voter makeup in Britain over the past 3 years (tens of thousands of kids hitting 18+, same number on the other end passing).....enough of a change that the mandate from the first ref might not reflect the voter makeup today!

Strazdas · 04-08-2019 01:09AM

Water John wrote: »

He may be seeking to justify looking for a new mandate for talks with the EU, following a GE in the UK. He'll be arguing that a new Gov'nt has a legitimate case to new negotiations to a new deal.
Might be giving Raab too much vision there.

That's not the way it works. International agreements are concluded between states, not individual governments. Using hard Brexiteer logic, the new European Commission could throw out the withdrawal agreement this autumn as there has been a change in personnel.

reslfj · 04-08-2019 02:51AM

Gunmonkey wrote: »

....,then they hope the new MEPs will try to force a more pro-UK set of guidelines.....

As I wrote earlier, the EU parliament is not part of the negotiation loop.

reslfj wrote: »

...
The EU parliament is not giving instructions to the EU commission and Michel Barnier.

It's only the EU Council (the PMs) that agrees on the negotiating guidelines given to Michel Barnier and the EU commission.

Lars

The EU parliament has a Brexit following group that gets briefings from Michel Barnier, but until a final negotiation result is available for approval it really is all the group has power to do.

Donald Tusk is the central figure in the EU councils having all 27 agreeing to the guidelines.

Lars

declanflynn · 04-08-2019 07:14AM

road_high wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

They've burned all bridges, I don't think there is a person out there that doesn't have the opinion of leave them off send them on their sorry way.

It's a gas situation altogether go from king maker and the top table making your own rules to exiting like a pauper and having absolutely no power at all.

The country will be stripped by their own vultures within not foreign ones and the people will cheer it on.

Let them taste it and consume it. 2008 will pale in comparison.

I would have been soft leaning before ie “can’t we all sit down and work out sensible arrangements” but after the goings on of recent months the hard line is the only way. And if that means a No Deal then so be it really. These lot aren’t worth the hassle, it’s like negotiating with a cult

Agree fully and I think more Irish people are think along these lines not less like the British press is reporting

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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