Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 11:15AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I honestly think if the vote was run again it would be won by Remain but within a percent or 2.

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

robinph · 02-08-2019 11:24AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

Think it would still need a lot more work to persuade the younger generation to turn out to vote though. They don't want to leave the EU, but they would still rather not go to the bother of voting. It's a system that they don't understand and they are being fed lies about their votes not counting and politicians all lying to them so why waste their time. It suits most politicians to keep them thinking that as it's far easier to round up a bunch of pensioners to get them to the polls and vote for you than a bunch of 20 year olds.

There are a couple of constituencies, think one is in Northumberland, where they are super speedy at getting the votes counted after each election and they have a very efficient setup with the local 6th form kids running ballot boxes back and forth to the count in order to try and be the first to declare each election. I wonder if the voting amongst those youngsters is any higher ratio than other areas once they turn 18 just due them being more involved in the process.

02-08-2019 11:25AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

You also have a sizeable proportion who unenthusiastically voted Remain. Would they bother again or switch? Or just abstain?
Glancing at recent polls they seem to be in/around what they were before the vote, especially the YouGov ones.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 11:26AM

robinph wrote: »

Think it would still need a lot more work to persuade the younger generation to turn out to vote though. They don't want to leave the EU, but they would still rather not go to the bother of voting. It's a system that they don't understand and they are being fed lies about their votes not counting and politicians all lying to them so why waste their time. It suits most politicians to keep them thinking that as it's far easier to round up a bunch of pensioners to get them to the polls and vote for you than a bunch of 20 year olds.

There are a couple of constituencies, think one is in Northumberland, where they are super speedy at getting the votes counted after each election and they have a very efficient setup with the local 6th form kids running ballot boxes back and forth to the count in order to try and be the first to declare each election. I wonder if the voting amongst those youngsters is any higher ratio than other areas once they turn 18 just due them being more involved in the process.

In a normal election, yes. However, I do think the turnout among the youth would be significantly higher. This wouldn't be an election, it would be their last chance to retain their rights to live and work in Europe as they currently are.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 11:27AM

Deleted User wrote: »

You also have a sizeable proportion who unenthusiastically voted Remain. Would they bother again or switch? Or just abstain?
Glancing at recent polls they seem to be in/around what they were before the vote, especially the YouGov ones.

I can't see them switching. What for? Abstaining out of fatigue I can see but I think they'd probably do as they did before.

02-08-2019 11:34AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

I disagree based on what I've seen with my English friends who voted Brexit, then regretted it, and are now keen for No Deal.

I'm aware you live there so you have a better handle on the local sentiment. But I do think the rerun would be painted so negatively, it would still be against Remain or anything sensible.

robinph · 02-08-2019 11:35AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In a normal election, yes. However, I do think the turnout among the youth would be significantly higher. This wouldn't be an election, it would be their last chance to retain their rights to live and work in Europe as they currently are.

Would need a concerted effort with the campaigning though to counteract the theme about having a vote as being undemocratic and similar nonsense.

If I was king of the world then I'd make all 6th form colleges and uni's close for the day, and anyone coming back in the next day showing that they went to actually vote gets an extra credit on their coursework or something, and anyone under 25 in work gets a paid half day off, funded by the government if needed, again with proof that they turned up to vote.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 11:40AM

robinph wrote: »

Would need a concerted effort with the campaigning though to counteract the theme about having a vote as being undemocratic and similar nonsense.

If I was king of the world then I'd make all 6th form colleges and uni's close for the day, and anyone coming back in the next day showing that they went to actually vote gets an extra credit on their coursework or something, and anyone under 25 in work gets a paid half day off, funded by the government if needed, again with proof that they turned up to vote.

Personally, I think voters should have to submit a 500-word essay with their vote to an AI which would evaluate it to make sure they have some understanding. Off topic fantasy but it annoys me that so many people can just tick a box based on which candidate is the most attractive or which logo they like. My cousin thinks Nigel Farage is funny and may have voted on that basis.

I think there would be a much better Remain campaign this time around and they'd have some serious firepower this time as well. Instead of mealy mouthed tripe about house prices and security, they can now go to town on Johnson as well as the Cambridge Analytica scandal, dodgy funding from people like Arron Banks, etc...

Stop moaning ffs · 02-08-2019 11:41AM

If in the event that an election comes about and the Lib Dem’s get in with some form of coalition with ______ and they revoke article 50 and cancel the whole thing, what would public reaction be? I can see that bringing about trouble.
The most vocal leavers online are the very sort to cause ructions from what I can tell

Winters · 02-08-2019 11:42AM

robinph wrote: »

If I was king of the world then I'd make all 6th form colleges and uni's close for the day, and anyone coming back in the next day showing that they went to actually vote gets an extra credit on their coursework or something, and anyone under 25 in work gets a paid half day off, funded by the government if needed, again with proof that they turned up to vote.

Or just schedule voting days on weekends like the rest of the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_day

robinph · 02-08-2019 11:47AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If in the event that an election comes about and the Lib Dem’s get in with some form of coalition with ______ and they revoke article 50 and cancel the whole thing, what would public reaction be? I can see that bringing about trouble.
The most vocal leavers online are the very sort to cause ructions from what I can tell

I think it will be the same as now, a few loud mouthed people shouting and screaming about the EU taking over but otherwise people will just grumble and get on with their lives. There will be a couple of days of people throwing bricks at whatever party HQ it is who has the PM at the time, but then they will get bored and go back home because nothing has really changed that much and they need to get back to work.

Much the same as why there isn't really any major uprising about revoking so far is because nothing has really changed yet and so people are mostly just getting on with their lives and hoping for the best.

It needs something to actually change in peoples lives before they would get agitated enough to go out and cause a ruckus about things and a hard Brexit is the only way that kind of change will happen. The options we are all hoping for of soft or no brexit will mostly just result in a small bit of grumbling.

Tell me how · 02-08-2019 11:53AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think there would be a much better Remain campaign this time around and they'd have some serious firepower this time as well. Instead of mealy mouthed tripe about house prices and security, they can now go to town on Johnson as well as the Cambridge Analytica scandal, dodgy funding from people like Arron Banks, etc...

Unless Brexit happens and there is a hit, I'd be afraid that the next GE would still be dominated by a news cycle of Brexiteers claiming the WA was negotiated by a remainer, May (ignoring Davis's or Raab's role in it) and so is not a true reflection of what a deal should be.

They'll say that Leave fines, CA and Arron Banks are Remainer propaganda and any legal actions have been politically motivated.

They'll say that all negative events/predictions are influenced be remainers trying to get to stay.

They'll go extra heavy on the message that democracy is being railroaded.

They'll utilise Trump's promise of a favourable deal.

And they're better at getting the above messages to the less than 10% of people who are potentially open to being influenced in order to swing it. Way better.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 11:56AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I disagree based on what I've seen with my English friends who voted Brexit, then regretted it, and are now keen for No Deal.

I'm aware you live there so you have a better handle on the local sentiment. But I do think the rerun would be painted so negatively, it would still be against Remain or anything sensible.

Well, I live in London and I work for a University so my perspective would be far different than if I were living in an impoverished part of Manchester, say.

Yeah, there is an argument that a second referendum would be undemocratic so that will need to be addressed in the campaign. Also, people would need to realize that staying in restores the status quo which did lead us to Brexit. Staying in must therefore be the first step in radically changing the UK to be a fairer place given the huge economic disparity it has.

Christy42 · 02-08-2019 11:58AM

Tell me how wrote: »

Unless Brexit happens and there is a hit, I'd be afraid that the next GE would still be dominated by a news cycle of Brexiteers claiming the WA was negotiated by a remainer, May (ignoring Davis's or Raab's role in it) and so is not a true reflection of what a deal should be.

They'll say that Leave fines, CA and Arron Banks are Remainer propaganda and any legal actions have been politically motivated.

They'll say that all negative events/predictions are influenced be remainers trying to get to stay.

They'll go extra heavy on the message that democracy is being railroaded.

They'll utilise Trump's promise of a favourable deal.

And they're better at getting the above messages to the less than 10% of people who are potentially open to being influenced in order to swing it. Way better.

Even with a bit they will say it is all independent of Brexit. They have so far and sure all those companies are just making excuses.

I can see why you would ignore Raab's role in the WA. Negotiators quickly realised he was of little relevance for negotiations and ignored him.

FrancieBrady · 02-08-2019 12:00PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well, I live in London and I work for a University so my perspective would be far different than if I were living in an impoverished part of Manchester, say.

Yeah, there is an argument that a second referendum would be undemocratic so that will need to be addressed in the campaign. Also, people would need to realize that staying in restores the status quo which did lead us to Brexit. Staying in must therefore be the first step in radically changing the UK to be a fairer place given the huge economic disparity it has.

An in-law of mine works for a London University too. Did you get a very scary letter assuring you of your job and status after the referendum result?

I am saying 'scary' as that was how my in-law described it's sudden appearance.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 12:04PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

An in-law of mine works for a London University too. Did you get a very scary letter assuring you of your job and status after the referendum result?

I am saying 'scary' as that was how my in-law described it's sudden appearance.

We've had emails alright but they were more about updating people with where we are on the subject. The University has launched a support service for EU nationals but I'm Irish so I've not looked at it. They did try to reassure us about jobs and status though and I think they're trying to help people apply for permanent residency as well.

Stop moaning ffs · 02-08-2019 12:06PM

Listening to Miriam o Callaghan yesterday on the growing anti Irish sentiment and rhetoric in the British press, she has Trevor McDonald and some other guy literally blaming the anti Irish sentiment on Remainers.
It’s wont give me a link but it’s in the podcasts. Well worth a listen.

FrancieBrady · 02-08-2019 12:10PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Listening to Miriam o Callaghan yesterday on the growing anti Irish sentiment and rhetoric in the British press, she has Trevor McDonald and some other guy literally blaming the anti Irish sentiment on Remainers.
It’s wont give me a link but it’s in the podcasts. Well worth a listen.

You sure it was 'Trevor'?

The segment she did yesterday was with Dearbhail McDonald, Irish journalist from Newry area, Brendan O'Neill of Spiked (he of 'I'm from peasant stock' fame) and Roy Greenslade, Media commentator and contributor to The Guardian.

Shelga · 02-08-2019 12:12PM

I am kind of coming to see that a second referendum is extremely difficult to justify, when the UK hasn’t actually left yet.

A second referendum will be ten times more ugly than the first one, and will just add to the underlying anger of the Brexit masses. Even if Remain wins, the margin will be small, and the country will resent the vote.

From a long term point of view, like 20-30 years, maybe it’s better to let them crash out and realise over time that it is infinitely better to be a member of the EU.

Maybe they’ll never realise, but at least the rest of us will be free of their whingeing and obstruction.

I realise the EU is far from perfect and people should of course be allowed to criticise it and debate it freely, but Brexit Britain takes that to a whole other level.

Do the rest of us (EU 27) really think it’s worth keeping them on board, at this stage? They are completely toxic and adrift, and will be for at least another 5-10 years.

Stop moaning ffs · 02-08-2019 12:13PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You sure it was 'Trevor'?

The segment she did yesterday was with Dearbhail McDonald, Irish journalist from Newry area, Brendan O'Neill of Spiked (he of 'I'm from peasant stock' fame) and Roy Greenslade, Media commentator and contributor to The Guardian.

I spoke wrong thanks.

Shelga · 02-08-2019 12:13PM

I do also realise that there are many, many millions of sane, reasonable and decent people in the UK, both Remain and Leave voters, who never envisioned any of this. But I am getting to the point where I’m kind of thinking, brace for impact, or leave.

ancapailldorcha · 02-08-2019 12:17PM

Shelga wrote: »

I am kind of coming to see that a second referendum is extremely difficult to justify, when the UK hasn’t actually left yet.

A second referendum will be ten times more ugly than the first one, and will just add to the underlying anger of the Brexit masses. Even if Remain wins, the margin will be small, and the country will resent the vote.

From a long term point of view, like 20-30 years, maybe it’s better to let them crash out and realise over time that it is infinitely better to be a member of the EU.

Maybe they’ll never realise, but at least the rest of us will be free of their whingeing and obstruction.

I realise the EU is far from perfect and people should of course be allowed to criticise it and debate it freely, but Brexit Britain takes that to a whole other level.

Do the rest of us (EU 27) really think it’s worth keeping them on board, at this stage? They are completely toxic and adrift, and will be for at least another 5-10 years.

I think it's important to try and not judge the UK by sensationalist vox pops and tweets. I'm not saying that you are of course, just that it's easy to do.

Most people who don't spend much time listening to, reading about or discussing politics, certainly not so much that they post on a thread like this. I think it can be reasonably argued, therefore that when prominent figures like Gove and Johnson drive around in a bus and tell them that Brexit will be good for the NHS and the country as a whole, taking them at their word doesn't make them stupid.

These days it is becoming easier and easier to judge people by tweets, edited videos and other nonsense and we end up dehumanizing them. The UK is just a more extreme example of this but it is not alone by any stretch.

Tell me how · 02-08-2019 12:18PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You sure it was 'Trevor'?

The segment she did yesterday was with Dearbhail McDonald, Irish journalist from Newry area, Brendan O'Neill of Spiked (he of 'I'm from peasant stock' fame) and Roy Greenslade, Media commentator and contributor to The Guardian.

When I read the post you responded to here, I thought that that sounded like Brendan O'Neil.

Shelga · 02-08-2019 12:18PM

Also, Irish people are used to emigrating when times get tough. Britain has never experienced that before. I’m not saying it’s a good thing, but we’ve all done it, and you adapt.

Shelga · 02-08-2019 12:23PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it's important to try and not judge the UK by sensationalist vox pops and tweets. I'm not saying that you are of course, just that it's easy to do.

Most people who don't spend much time listening to, reading about or discussing politics, certainly not so much that they post on a thread like this. I think it can be reasonably argued, therefore that when prominent figures like Gove and Johnson drive around in a bus and tell them that Brexit will be good for the NHS and the country as a whole, taking them at their word doesn't make them stupid.

These days it is becoming easier and easier to judge people by tweets, edited videos and other nonsense and we end up dehumanizing them. The UK is just a more extreme example of this but it is not alone by any stretch.

But I’m not basing my judgement on just the media. I went back to England recently, for a visit to some old colleagues from my team, one of whom was leaving. A lot of them are middle-aged men, they all voted for the Brexit Party.

They work for an automotive company, for god’s sake.

I came away feeling really unsettled. It’s honestly like they’ve been brainwashed.

These people cannot be helped. A shock to the system is the only thing that will do it, and even then, I think they will blame other factors rather than admit they were fooled.

Calina · 02-08-2019 12:23PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Well, I live in London and I work for a University so my perspective would be far different than if I were living in an impoverished part of Manchester, say.

Yeah, there is an argument that a second referendum would be undemocratic so that will need to be addressed in the campaign. Also, people would need to realize that staying in restores the status quo which did lead us to Brexit. Staying in must therefore be the first step in radically changing the UK to be a fairer place given the huge economic disparity it has.

The UK will not do this. They will campaign on the need to reform the EU from within.

The need for substantial reform in the UK is not discussed.

Seth Brundle · 02-08-2019 12:25PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it could be more than this. Thing is you now have a younger generation who are more numerous than before by way of now being old enough to vote. Then you have the sheer farce the Tories have made of the whole thing and the fact that a lot of people will simply have died since 2016 who statistically would have been more likely to vote Brexit.

I'd be curious to know how many of those are informed of the pros & cons of leaving and the different impact on the UK from either remaining, the WA and from a no-deal exit.
I'd put money down that they still largely don't know or understand the details and would vote in whatever way their Facebook feed tells them.

Fr Tod Umptious · 02-08-2019 12:35PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Disturbing that hard/no-deal Brexit parties between them muster 50.3% of the vote, though. This is only about 1.5% down on the Leave vote in that constituency in the 2016 referendum. If that's replicated nationally - admittedly, that's a very big "if" - then the Leave vote has (a) held up pretty well, despite all that has happened since, and (b) has if anything hardened in its outlook.

I'm frankly astonished that the Tory vote is as high as it is. I don't agree with a Brexit Party vote, but I can understand it. But the Tories have worked really, really hard over the past three years to repel voters and to present themselves as radically unfit for office. They've been utterly single-minded about this, and I don't see that they could possibly have done more. And yet nearly four in ten voters simply will not get the message. What would have to happen, I wonder, for them to vote for some other party?

If I'm not mistaken the Tory candidate was an incumbent who had to resign his seat due to a petition about questionable expenses claims.

So maybe the voters who voted for him though he was a good MP who was getting shafted.

Remember all politics is local, maybe his support had little to do with national politics.

The exact same would happen here.

BobbyBobberson · 02-08-2019 12:47PM

I read ignorant comments from Brexiteers and sometimes I get so angry I think that if Ireland were not to be affected I would wish the hardest of Brexits on some of them. Anyone else get like that? Their ignorance rattles me.People commenting about Mark Carney being a remoaner. The man can't wait to leave the absolute basketcase of a country I imagine.

Just following up on AnCopaills comments, I lived in London during and after the ref and spend time in poorer areas of Northern UK and honestly there is not much of regret at all. People I have spoken to are either pissed its not happened or think it will be fine. To be honest if they were daft enough to vote first time there will not be much of a swing around. Now that is just people I have spoken to, so a small sample size.

I do think there was an early misconception that No Deal equalled the status quo.

BobbyBobberson · 02-08-2019 12:48PM

Shelga wrote: »

Also, Irish people are used to emigrating when times get tough. Britain has never experienced that before. I’m not saying it’s a good thing, but we’ve all done it, and you adapt.

British people working in Ireland sending money home, will be quite the historical turn around. UK government has worse case scenario for sterling as losing another 25%. Worse case scenario obvs but would be astonishing to see impacts if it lost even another 10%.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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