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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • #7202
    Infini
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,655 ✭✭✭Infini


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    NI nationalists won't rule the roost in a new UI. Unionists will be fully entitled to protections agaisnt being overwhelmed by their neighbours. Devolution allowing unionism some protection within a region of the new Irish state is one option. But regardless, unionism won't disapear, there will still be unionist dominated councils in a UI for example.

    If there's a united ireland ultimately while things will change but they arent going to just be left behind. If anything the North will likely be the target of serious investment and development both politically and with EU support to try and get the place to be able to stand on its own feet, not the situation where its essentially neglected by Westminster.

    What ultimately will have to happen though in regards to politics is that they'll need to face the new reality though and start thinking constructively instead of this "flegs and never never" approach that has poisoned and paralysed the place for many years. They'll also need to realise that many fears about a UI are either overblown or utterly outdated, this isnt 1950s Ireland and I wonder if some up there dont realise just how much things changed down here in the last 3 decades. If anything its a major oppertunity for them not to mentiom Ireland is many governed by coalitions so they'd likely be able to have a share of power anyway provided they got reasonable and constuctive policies and not populist ojes.

    Also the likes of the DUP will have to take responsibility when they mess up not the carryon that Arlene pulled by refusing to step aside when she messed up and wasted huge amounts of money on a defective scheme.


  • #7203
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,051 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    Has anyone actually asked them what is the basis of calling the backstop undemocratic, or antidemocratic as I have also heard?


    The referendum was DEMOCRACY because 17.4 MILLION PEOPLE !! voted to leave the UNDEMOCRATIC EU. The backstop is something NO-ONE voted for. When the UK voted to leave, we were meant to LEAVE, not have one bit of the UK trapped in the EU by UNELECTED, globalist EU bureaucrats !!



    This is basically a summation of most Daily Mail and Youtube comment sections. See, there's a certain class of Brexiteer who need to be told where the emphasis should be in sentences, and they feel compelled to use the technique themselves, too...



    Like talking to a wall of yet-to-be-achieved hardness.


  • #7204
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    Has anyone actually asked them what is the basis of calling the backstop undemocratic, or antidemocratic as I have also heard?

    The phrase doesn't even make the slightest bit of sense - it seems to be just a meaningless slogan


  • #7205
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    Ok guys, excellent thread, and I only occasionally dip in and out.

    From what I am hearing, it would seem that the most likely upcoming scenario (most likely but not a cert) we are facing could be a border in the Irish sea.

    I would assume this would be the best possible scenario we could hope for? And in layman's terms, how "bad" would this be for us in the long run, if at all?

    Thanks in advance.


  • #7206
    Mezcita
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Mezcita


    Shelga wrote: »
    They need another protest in London, with 10+ million people.

    Can't see it happening. That's my biggest problem with this whole thing. Living here it's as if the vast majority of people I speak with simply expect the whole thing to be sorted out eventually. That nothing really bad will happen even in the event of no deal. Even when people get round to actually protesting the numbers are still relatively small beans.


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  • #7207
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,979 ✭✭✭Russman


    Strazdas wrote: »
    The phrase doesn't even make the slightest bit of sense - it seems to be just a meaningless slogan

    Exactly, in a similar vein to how they managed to make "take back control" the defining slogan of the original referendum and debate.
    How it was rarely (if ever) seriously challenged is beyond me.


  • #7208
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    Ok guys, excellent thread, and I only occasionally dip in and out.

    From what I am hearing, it would seem that the most likely upcoming scenario (most likely but not a cert) we are facing could be a border in the Irish sea.

    I would assume this would be the best possible scenario we could hope for? And in layman's terms, how "bad" would this be for us in the long run, if at all?

    Thanks in advance.


    Border in the sea would be a massive boost and success for NIs economy. Thee have the best of both worlds.

    Our dear friends in the DUP are blocking it because an imaginary border in the water somehow makes them less British and taken out of the United Kingdom to use their language.

    So the whole of Northern Ireland is going to suffer because of their identity insecurities.


    That said it’s looking like Boris is lining up to find support / votes elsewhere so he can dump the DUP, put the border in the sea and hey presto brexit is delivered.


    The unionists all know this is happening if twitter is any indication. The dogs in the street everywhere know this is the most likely and only sensible option remaining


  • #7209
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,169 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Any time someone posts about 500 million for some Brexit thing, someone comes along on twitter and points out its just money already allocated being called Brexit money. There's been no budget to vote through more cash yet


  • #7210
    BluePlanet
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,444 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    Ok guys, excellent thread, and I only occasionally dip in and out.

    From what I am hearing, it would seem that the most likely upcoming scenario (most likely but not a cert) we are facing could be a border in the Irish sea.

    I would assume this would be the best possible scenario we could hope for? And in layman's terms, how "bad" would this be for us in the long run, if at all?

    Thanks in advance.
    After BoJo had a private dinner with the DUP i am highly doubting he's going to turn around the throw them under the bus.
    We are hard brexiting and i believe there'll be no border poll.


  • #7211
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    I am more pesimistic, if Johnson calls an election I think he will win and I think the momentum to a no-deal Brexit will be too hard to break at this point. There is massive, even if not majority, support for no-deal in the UK at this point, and it seems to be far more motivated than those who should be putting a stop to it.

    We will have a no-deal crash and a Johnson lead government trying to lead Britain through a disasterous Brexit with the "Blitz Spirit". A much damaged UK will emerge in a few years time having been forced to pick up the peices and only then will a moderate leadership emerge to do a reasonable deal.

    In the latest opinion poll relating to your assertion (July 16th), the following question was asked:

    Do you agree or disagree that, ‘If Boris Johnson is the next Prime Minister and is unable to get a better deal from the EU by the 31st of October, the UK should just leave without a deal’?

    The results show it pretty neck-and-neck between the agrees and disagrees ("strongly" and "somewhat" combined)

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-agree-or-disagree-that-if-boris-johnson-is-the-next-prime-minister-and-is-unable-to-get-a-better-deal-from-the-eu-by-the-31st-of-october-the-uk-should-just-leave-without-a-deal/?groups%5B0%5D%5B0%5D=Strongly%2Bagree&groups%5B0%5D%5B1%5D=Somewhat%2Bagree&groups%5B1%5D%5B3%5D=Somewhat%2Bdisagree&groups%5B1%5D%5B4%5D=Strongly%2Bdisagree


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  • #7212
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,687 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Stop moaning ffs wrote: »
    Border in the sea would be a massive boost and success for NIs economy. Thee have the best of both worlds.

    Our dear friends in the DUP are blocking it because an imaginary border in the water somehow makes them less Britishness and taken out of the United Kingdom to use their language.

    So the whole of Northern Ireland is going to suffer because of their identity insecurities.


    That said it’s looking like Boris is lining up to find support / votes elsewhere so he can dump the DUP, put the border in the sea and hey presto brexit is delivered.


    The unionists all low this is happening if twister is any indication. The dogs in the street everywhere know this is the most likely and only sensible option remaining

    Not sure of this anymore.

    Boris has boxed himself into a corner here. He has said very loudly, 'pull the entire backstop out' or we exit with No Deal.

    Not seeing a way for him to back out of that by opting for a sea border.


  • #7213
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Russman wrote: »
    Exactly, in a similar vein to how they managed to make "take back control" the defining slogan of the original referendum and debate.
    How it was rarely (if ever) seriously challenged is beyond me.

    Yes, that was a brilliant slogan and an effective one, but completely meaningless - take back control of what exactly and from whom?


  • #7214
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    After BoJo had a private dinner with the DUP i am highly doubting he's going to turn around the throw them under the bus.
    We are hard brexiting and i believe there'll be no border poll.

    Well considering the rhetoric being spouted from Arlene and pals, it would be plausible that the dinner Boris had with them was to tell them to tighten up and brace themselves, that then alternative could be much, much worse.

    I'm having an open mind about the dinner for now.


  • #7215
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    After BoJo had a private dinner with the DUP i am highly doubting he's going to turn around the throw them under the bus.
    We are hard brexiting and i believe there'll be no border poll.

    That dinner is exactly why he’ll sell them down the river.
    The last supper / Judas analogy is kind of delicious :)

    If you can’t placate the unionists you buy them off. It was ever thus and remains the status quo.


    He might have even explained to them at dinner his plan they just have to play along and formulate a way to climb down and spin it.

    As they did just yesterday by explaining way their £1 billion bribe from May.


  • #7216
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,870 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    Ok guys, excellent thread, and I only occasionally dip in and out.

    From what I am hearing, it would seem that the most likely upcoming scenario (most likely but not a cert) we are facing could be a border in the Irish sea.

    I would assume this would be the best possible scenario we could hope for? And in layman's terms, how "bad" would this be for us in the long run, if at all?

    Thanks in advance.

    Peregrinus has an excellent post here as to how Johnson might engineer NI remaining inside the Single Market and Customs Union.

    By "us", I assume you mean Ireland as a whole including NI. I think the best scenario there is, unsurprisingly canning Brexit.

    I don't know how likely leaving NI in the single market and customs union is. However, if it happens, it will be a much lesser evil for both sides of the border in terms of trade, commuting, employment and political tensions not being stoked. It does mean that NI will be aligned with Dublin and Brussels rather than London though and may encourage the SNP to agitate for equal treatment for Scotland if not an outright Indyref2. If this happens, I would hope that the EU continues its programme of supporting cross-border projects such as the PEACE programme.

    This won't help Irish exporters to mainland Britain though which would make up the bulk of exports to the UK market. It's really horrible for those whose livelihoods depend on such trade. I hope they won't be hit too hard and that the government has tried to help them access EU markets to supplant that of the UK.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #7217
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    fash wrote: »
    UK citizens have reciprocal rights in relation to the respective constitutions.
    When Irish can elect the Queen and vote to change the UK Constitution, they will be entitled to do so in Ireland

    The Irish in the UK would get a vote in any such referendum in the UK the same as any UK citizen would. Irish citizens in the UK got a vote in Brexit and the Scottish independence referendum which were pretty fundamental constitutional questions regarding the future of the country.

    UK residents in Ireland would not have got a vote in the marriage referendum which whilst it was a major social change, doesn't really change the makeup of the country in anyway.

    Getting off track now, but the point was merely that Irish in the UK are considered 100% equivalent to UK citizens in the UK. The opposite is not quite true, although close.


  • #7218
    BluePlanet
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,444 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    Stop moaning ffs wrote: »
    He might have even explained to them at dinner his plan they just have to play along and formulate a way to climb down and spin it.

    As they did just yesterday by explaining way their £1 billion bribe from May.
    What did they do yesterday?

    I also think SF are firing too early for a border poll.
    I don't think it would go the way we want, and then it would set-back unification for another generation.
    We need to let Brexit bite.


  • #7219
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    What did they do yesterday?

    I also think SF are firing too early for a border poll.
    I don't think it would go the way we want, and then it would set-back unification for another generation.
    We need to let Brexit bite.

    They spun their billion pound bribe..what, two years after getting it? This also a preamble to a further two billion bribe/payoff from Boris.
    https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1156654452973166593?s=21


  • #7220
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,979 ✭✭✭Russman


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    What did they do yesterday?

    I also think SF are firing too early for a border poll.
    I don't think it would go the way we want, and then it would set-back unification for another generation.
    We need to let Brexit bite.

    I tend to agree with this. It'll take something extraordinary (like the impact of a crash-out) to focus minds on reality up there, and especially to change a few minds. Until that happens it will all be written off as "Project Fear".


  • #7221
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    In the latest opinion poll relating to your assertion (July 16th), the following question was asked:

    Do you agree or disagree that, ‘If Boris Johnson is the next Prime Minister and is unable to get a better deal from the EU by the 31st of October, the UK should just leave without a deal’?

    The results show it pretty neck-and-neck between the agrees and disagrees ("strongly" and "somewhat" combined)

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-agree-or-disagree-that-if-boris-johnson-is-the-next-prime-minister-and-is-unable-to-get-a-better-deal-from-the-eu-by-the-31st-of-october-the-uk-should-just-leave-without-a-deal/?groups%5B0%5D%5B0%5D=Strongly%2Bagree&groups%5B0%5D%5B1%5D=Somewhat%2Bagree&groups%5B1%5D%5B3%5D=Somewhat%2Bdisagree&groups%5B1%5D%5B4%5D=Strongly%2Bdisagree

    This is the elephant in the room for remainers. While it is true that no-one voted for no-deal, many many people now support no-deal in the UK. The only way to put the UK back together at this point is to show them the error in their ways be giving them what they want, painful as that may be for the rest of us.


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  • #7222
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,870 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    This is the elephant in the room for remainers. While it is true that no-one voted for no-deal, many many people now support no-deal in the UK. The only way to put the UK back together at this point is to show them the error in their ways be giving them what they want, painful as that may be for the rest of us.

    The economic devastation that the Brexiters want to unleash upon the working classes as part of their odious disaster capitalist project isn't going to put anything back together, not even the Conservative party. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely agitate to leave the UK while jobs, money, investment and people trickle out to Ireland and the continent.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #7223
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    The HoC's/Tory Party's very own Reg Holdsworth is reiterating his stance from last week - that the ERG will vote down the WA even if the backstop is entirely removed. Although this time he puts a number on it - 60 of them will vote it down
    Dozens of hardline Brexiteer MPs are vowing to vote down the Withdrawal Agreement even if it does not include the backstop, after Boris Johnson suggests there will be a transition period.

    Mark Francois, the vice chairman of the European Research Group, warned of a "running Parliamentary war probably for at least a month" if Mr Johnson tries to force the agreement through the Commons.

    Mr Johnson wants the European Union to agree to remove the 200 page long section covering the Northern Ireland backstop in Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement to get the deal approved by MPs.

    However Mr Francois said that Tory members of the ERG on the backbenches - now understood to be around 60 - would vote down any...
    ....the rest is paywalled

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/01/sixty-backbench-tories-will-vote-withdrawal-agreement-even-irish/


  • #7224
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,411 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    This is the elephant in the room for remainers. While it is true that no-one voted for no-deal, many many people now support no-deal in the UK. The only way to put the UK back together at this point is to show them the error in their ways be giving them what they want, painful as that may be for the rest of us.

    The problem is that so many Leave voters have been brainwashed by the right wing rags and Farage that they have no comprehension of what No Deal means. They probably think it will be scarcely any different to their personal situation right now.


  • #7225
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    The economic devastation that the Brexiters want to unleash upon the working classes as part of their odious disaster capitalist project isn't going to put anything back together, not even the Conservative party. Scotland and Northern Ireland will likely agitate to leave the UK while jobs, money, investment and people trickle out to Ireland and the continent.

    No, but I have to believe that eventually the Brexit revolution will eat its own children and a moderate reaction will at some point be forced to act and get a grip on things again. So far, all we have seen is an abdication of responsibility from the centre, allowing the looney fringes to run the madhouse.


  • #7226
    PeadarCo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    Laois_Man wrote:
    The HoC's/Tory Party's very own Reg Holdsworth is reiterating his stance from last week - that the ERG will vote down the WA even if the backstop is entirely removed. Although this time he puts a number on it - 60 of them will vote it down

    Johnson is barely in the job a week and he is already being undermined. This damages his request to get the backstop removed as it wouldn't be enough to get the WA through.


  • #7227
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,169 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Mark Francois is bogeyman level stuff - Steve Baker not taking a junior ministerial post was an interesting warning shot to show that the hardliners are still there and not taking part in the comedy


  • #7228
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,870 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    No, but I have to believe that eventually the Brexit revolution will eat its own children and a moderate reaction will at some point be forced to act and get a grip on things again. So far, all we have seen is an abdication of responsibility from the centre, allowing the looney fringes to run the madhouse.

    It won't. It's turned on the media, Parliament, anyone with a different opinion, the Bank of England, the BBC, etc.. It just keeps moving from one target to another because it knows deep down that getting this thing across the line was a fluke built on lies and subterfuge. They're using extremist language to try and drag the UK out before it's too late and they know that Parliament can push Johnson aside and take over the process as it did before. This is why proroguing Parliament was in vogue recently amongst Brexiters.

    There's too much at stake to simply let this happen. Millions of people moved here in good faith from the EU. A lot of people in deprived areas stand to get much poorer and not all of them voted for Brexit. Of those who did, some would vote remain. I think they deserve that chance. And then there's the supply chains and Ireland's high amount of trade with the UK. People deserve a second chance to abort this charade.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #7229
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,516 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    The HoC's/Tory Party's very own Reg Holdsworth is reiterating his stance from last week - that the ERG will vote down the WA even if the backstop is entirely removed. Although this time he puts a number on it - 60 of them will vote it down
    Same ERG that were going to oust May in the Tory leadership vote due to their numbers etc.? Sorry if I don't trust their claims of actual votes.


  • #7230
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    Leo earlier today states ‘everyone should be afraid of a no deal brexit’

    Cut to twitter. And actual respected news sources.

    ‘Leo Varadkar says he is afraid of no deal brexit’

    Mere hours after accusing him of being in charge of project fear MKii




    Jesus


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  • #7231
    Limpy
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 1,105 ✭✭✭Limpy


    I don't see how half the population are brainwashed or were sheeply led to vote leave. Sure, many people voted blindly but to say the leave side are all just and righteous voters is silly.
    Farage took advantage of the Syria immigrant situation which was a real issue with voters. He got votes for it.

    David Cameron was only elected because he promised a vote. Remember that.

    They won the vote. So if that's democracy they should get there wish.


This discussion has been closed.
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