Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

murphaph · 01-08-2019 01:11PM

lawred2 wrote: »

why would Polish villagers be illegal migrant workers in the UK?

They may be working in the black market but that would be a matter for the employer.

Post Brexit the doors slam shut on legal migration from Poland but illegal migration will continue. There are a million Poles in the UK. They can act as the front and employ the new arrivals illegally in their firms.

It's how Paddy gets work in Boston to this day.

Imreoir2 · 01-08-2019 01:12PM

robinph wrote: »

Irish citizens have more rights in the UK than UK citizens do in Ireland, admittedly it is only referendums and presidential elections that UK citizens don't get to take part in.

Irish citizens in the UK don't get to vote for their head of state, why should they get to vote for ours?

MrMusician18 · 01-08-2019 01:17PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I am more pesimistic, if Johnson calls an election I think he will win and I think the momentum to a no-deal Brexit will be too hard to break at this point. There is massive, even if not majority, support for no-deal in the UK at this point, and it seems to be far more motivated than those who should be putting a stop to it.

We will have a no-deal crash and a Johnson lead government trying to lead Britain through a disasterous Brexit with the "Blitz Spirit". A much damaged UK will emerge in a few years time having been forced to pick up the peices and only then will a moderate leadership emerge to do a reasonable deal.

Wasn't the blitz spirit largely a fiction invented in the decades after the war.

One would expect a great deal of disharmony if the consequence is a deep recession. They're wasn't much blitz spirit here during the 2008-12 crisis, one would expect similar or worse in a relatively similar country.

Igotadose · 01-08-2019 01:17PM

murphaph wrote: »

Post Brexit the doors slam shut on legal migration from Poland but illegal migration will continue. There are a million Poles in the UK. They can act as the front and employ the new arrivals illegally in their firms.

It's how Paddy gets work in Boston to this day.

Hmm... Post-Brexit, the immigration doors *can* slam shut. It's never that clearcut in politics. Plus the immigration doors were closeable in the past, but HMG chose to do nothing effective as far as I can see, more content to blame the EU for its problems.

And a million Poles resident in the UK are impacting the economy. Make it unpleasant for them, make it impossible to bring in more workers, might mean HMG decides not to slam doors.

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 01:26PM

Interesting idea.
This £2 billion no deal brexit fund they’ve just pulled out from the back of the sofa is more about election promises than it is preparedness for brexit.

storker · 01-08-2019 01:28PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Wasn't the blitz spirit largely a fiction invented in the decades after the war.

I don't think Johnson or his government are overly concerned with the difference between fact and fiction. Why start now...?

J Mysterio · 01-08-2019 01:30PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1156874248851460096

It's never been about the backstop for these people . That is just a handy hook to hang their hats on. They want no deal

Unbelievable. 60? Determined to destroy their country. As they wish.

robinph · 01-08-2019 01:30PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

robinph wrote: »

Irish citizens have more rights in the UK than UK citizens do in Ireland, admittedly it is only referendums and presidential elections that UK citizens don't get to take part in.

Irish citizens in the UK don't get to vote for their head of state, why should they get to vote for ours?

But neither do the UK citizens get that vote.

Of course everyone is free to vote for a republican party if they wanted to.

Imreoir2 · 01-08-2019 01:35PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Wasn't the blitz spirit largely a fiction invented in the decades after the war.

One would expect a great deal of disharmony if the consequence is a deep recession. They're wasn't much blitz spirit here during the 2008-12 crisis, one would expect similar or worse in a relatively similar country.

That may well be entirely true. Now, do you think that will stop a Johnson led governemnt envoking the blitz spirit as a cover for their own incompetance?

As I said, the UK will be severly damaged by a no-deal Brexit. The blitz spirit stuff is just window dressing.

J Mysterio · 01-08-2019 01:36PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

They've already spent £4.2 Billion and are still nowhere near ready!

Javid committed another 1.5B or thereabouts in the last day or so, bringing the total to over. 6.5B.

Edit: 2.1B

Strazdas · 01-08-2019 01:39PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Wasn't the blitz spirit largely a fiction invented in the decades after the war.

One would expect a great deal of disharmony if the consequence is a deep recession. They're wasn't much blitz spirit here during the 2008-12 crisis, one would expect similar or worse in a relatively similar country.

Even during the War in fact. The British propagandists were very worried by the prospect of civil unrest and riots on the streets and created a myth of a stoic and unified community going about their business and untroubled by the bombs.

In truth, historians say people were terrified out of their wits, fed up and often angry and resentful (most people living in the cities were working class while the rich were out in the countryside).

BonnieSituation · 01-08-2019 01:40PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I only found out today that if we have a UI ref, we have to have one every seven years?
Is that if it doesn’t pass we try again in 7 years? Or if it does pass we have one every 7 years?
Or both? Really confused on this anyone know for sure?

No, what happens is that we can't have another one again for at least 7 years. There is no compulsion to keep having them. The SoS continues to have the veto/decision making power.

Shelga · 01-08-2019 01:40PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Unbelievable. 60? Determined to destroy their country. As they wish.

Is their grip on sanity actually missing?

What do they think will be better for the average UK citizen after a no-deal Brexit? I think I just still sometimes struggle with such a large number of people in power genuinely not caring at all for the negative consequences of their actions, and how it will affect people who are already struggling.

Do they really not care? Or have they reached levels of delusion I didn’t think possible?

The ERG is a poisonous group indeed.

BonnieSituation · 01-08-2019 01:42PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In the event of a UI, there is no land border to harden. Joining Schengen before a UI happens would be a breach of the GFA.

After a UI the GFA would most likely have to be replaced by a successor agreement, though this is not spelled out in the GFA itself. It is likely that there would be a new agreement between Ireland and Britain setting out the new relationship and allowing for the contiuation of some of the provissions of the GFA like continued access to dual citizenship in NI and the continuation of the GFA institutions like the British/Irish Council and possibly a devolution settlement for NI within the Irish state.

Why would any Nationalist want a devolution settlement in the event of a UI that has them continuing to be a minority in Fermanagh, Antrim, Tyrone, Derry, Armagh and Down (FATDAD)?

A unified Ireland with just NI tacked onto the ROI just can't be allowed to happen. A new settlement should be considered. But that's not it.

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 01:43PM

Shelga wrote: »

Is their grip on sanity actually missing?

What do they think will be better for the average UK citizen after a no-deal Brexit? I think I just still sometimes struggle with such a large number of people in power genuinely not caring at all for the negative consequences of their actions, and how it will affect people who are already struggling.

Do they really not care? Or have they reached levels of delusion I didn’t think possible?

The ERG is a poisonous group indeed.

He could as easily be bullsh!tting let’s not forget.

BobbyBobberson · 01-08-2019 01:43PM

One aspect Brexiteers forget about when they talk about WW2 and the Blitz Spirit is that no one voted for a war. I can only imagine the spirit in London Underground shelters had 52% of people voted for the war.

J Mysterio · 01-08-2019 01:50PM

Shelga wrote: »

Is their grip on sanity actually missing?

What do they think will be better for the average UK citizen after a no-deal Brexit? I think I just still sometimes struggle with such a large number of people in power genuinely not caring at all for the negative consequences of their actions, and how it will affect people who are already struggling.

Do they really not care? Or have they reached levels of delusion I didn’t think possible?

The ERG is a poisonous group indeed.

Tory twits living in a Westminster Brexit bubble. Going to secretive meetings and clapping each other on the back as they insult the EU and reminisce about the empire and 'winning WWII'.

Is Francois estranged from his Italian mother? Maybe she has passed on. Would be tough for her to see her progeny behaving in such a way you would imagine. How could anyone follow such a turnip?

Imreoir2 · 01-08-2019 01:51PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Why would any Nationalist want a devolution settlement in the event of a UI that has them continuing to be a minority in Fermanagh, Antrim, Tyrone, Derry, Armagh and Down (FATDAD)?

A unified Ireland with just NI tacked onto the ROI just can't be allowed to happen. A new settlement should be considered. But that's not it.

NI nationalists won't rule the roost in a new UI. Unionists will be fully entitled to protections agaisnt being overwhelmed by their neighbours. Devolution allowing unionism some protection within a region of the new Irish state is one option. But regardless, unionism won't disapear, there will still be unionist dominated councils in a UI for example.

Strazdas · 01-08-2019 01:53PM

I see Javid referred to "the undemocratic backstop" today. They (Tory spokesmen) appear to be under strict instructions from Cummings to do so.

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 01:54PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I see Javid referred to "the undemocratic backstop" today. They (Tory spokesmen) appear to be under strict instructions from Cummings to do so.

Earlier O Brien asking why aren’t we calling it the undemocratic no deal.
Nobody voted for it

Imreoir2 · 01-08-2019 01:57PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I see Javid referred to "the undemocratic backstop" today. They (Tory spokesmen) appear to be under strict instructions from Cummings to do so.

Has anyone actually asked them what is the basis of calling the backstop undemocratic, or antidemocratic as I have also heard?

BonnieSituation · 01-08-2019 01:57PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

NI nationalists won't rule the roost in a new UI. Unionists will be fully entitled to protections agaisnt being overwhelmed by their neighbours. Devolution allowing unionism some protection within a region of the new Irish state is one option. But regardless, unionism won't disapear, there will still be unionist dominated councils in a UI for example.

I'm sorry imreoir. You're falling into that trap of the assumption that those with am Anglo-centric culture will likely be treated in the way Nationalists were on the creation of the Statelet in 1922.

Of course they won't disappear. And I fully expect the State to treat them as one would expect of any minority.

But a carved off autonomous region is not the answer and will just continue the us v them attitude.

fash · 01-08-2019 02:03PM

robinph wrote: »

Irish citizens have more rights in the UK than UK citizens do in Ireland, admittedly it is only referendums and presidential elections that UK citizens don't get to take part in.

UK citizens have reciprocal rights in relation to the respective constitutions.
When Irish can elect the Queen and vote to change the UK Constitution, they will be entitled to do so in Ireland

VinLieger · 01-08-2019 02:05PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I wish someone would point out "undemocratic" PM Boris elected by less than one percentage of population

Who made some very negative public remarks when Gordon Brown was elected PM by the exact same means

Boris Johnson (2007) wrote:

“They voted for Anthony Charles Lynton Blair to serve as their leader. They were at no stage invited to vote on whether Gordon Brown should be PM… They voted for Tony, and yet they now get Gordon, and a transition about as democratically proper as the transition from Claudius to Nero. It is a scandal. Why are we all conniving in this stitch-up? This is nothing less than a palace coup… with North Korean servility, the Labour Party has handed power over to the brooding Scottish power-maniac.”

“The extraordinary thing is that it looks as though he will now be in 10 Downing Street for three years, and without a mandate from the British people. No one elected Gordon Brown as Prime Minister…”

Tell me how · 01-08-2019 02:06PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I wish someone would point out "undemocratic" PM Boris elected by less than one percentage of population

Or that every single piece of legislation ever enacted was undemocratic because the entire electorate did not specifically vote on it.

Any media person allowing the Brexiteers to use the 'undemocratic backstop' line without questioning them on the veracity of the phrase is negligent in their own role.

prawnsambo · 01-08-2019 02:06PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Has anyone actually asked them what is the basis of calling the backstop undemocratic, or antidemocratic as I have also heard?

It would be just as silly to call it democratic. It's the result of a negotiation, the same as any other negotiation outcome.

Laois_Man · 01-08-2019 02:07PM

jem wrote: »

If labour had a decent leader I am very confident they would lead the next UK govt however it is dam hard to get rid on him as was shown in 2016 when the vast majority of the parlimentary party wanted rid but the members (mainly momentium) voted him back in with a higher % than he got the first time.
I believe that H benn would have the best chance of beating corbyn with his family history (tony Benn) and his own ability.

There's been a lot of water under the bridge since 2016 though. That combined with the need to out him to get in government should see him voted out. But they'd have to do it in a hurry and I'm not familiar with the Labour leadership contest procedure timelines!

Shelga · 01-08-2019 02:11PM

They need another protest in London, with 10+ million people.

What is happening is absolutely staggering. £2 billion spent on this stuff is absolutely criminal. The average person should be doing everything in their power to stop this insanity.

And yet they’re still going to sleepwalk into no deal, because the people who are against this are still not motivated enough. I wouldn’t even call them remainers anymore, just normal people FFS!

fash · 01-08-2019 02:13PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Has anyone actually asked them what is the basis of calling the backstop undemocratic, or antidemocratic as I have also heard?

Especially given that the backstop is merely putting in writing one of the guarantees given by all leave campaigners during the referendum campaign - that there would be no change on the border.
Hence the backstop has at least 52% support.

jem · 01-08-2019 02:18PM

robinph wrote: »

If Johnson says he doesn't have the confidence then the HoC gets two weeks to come up with an alternative I think before a GE is triggered. As long as someone other than Corbyn becomes the figure head then they could probably be PM for the duration of a couple of weeks and do "something" else.

The something could be merely to request an extension and then call a GE themselves

Sam Russell wrote: »

No, if he goes to Her Maj, she cannot call a GE without 2/3rd approval of the HoC. Instead they can suggest a PM who can command a majority. Now if 30 or so Tories back a Gov of National Unity, then they form such with a PM nominated by the combined opposition, and they form the Gov.

First item would be Revoke Art 50 and be done with Brexit.

lads that wont happen.
Remember JC is and always has been anti EU.
If he has the opportunity of a general election he will run with it.
Also the is not a chance that he will stand back to allow someone else to be PM.
Wishful thinking I fear

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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