Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

I am sure this has been reported already but investment in the car industry in the UK was only £90m for the first six months this year. Before Brexit this was £2.5bn to £2.7bn per year. That is some fall.

Brexit causes UK car industry investment to crash to 'pitiful' £90m

Investment in Britain’s car industry has effectively stopped amid fears over Brexit, with a “pitiful” £90m pledged for new developments in the first six months of this year, according to the industry body.

Before Brexit clouded the horizon, the automotive industry was investing between £2.5bn and £2.7bn a year in research and development.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) said a Brexit deal was imperative to help the embattled industry to bounce back, otherwise the government will face demands for the same type of tax breaks farmers need to stay afloat.

The irony that the pressure is coming from the UK car manufacturers to get a deal done and not the German car makers.

Peregrinus wrote: »

It keeps the whole UK in the customs union, which means no difference in treatment between NI and GB as regards tariffs and customs regulations. However it still leave NI co-ordinated with EU as regards single market regulations, but not GB, which means goods coming from GB to NI would have to be subject to checks and controls to ensure compliance with EU regulations. DUP's position is that there should be no difference at all between the treatment of NI and GB.

The irony of there being a difference in standards already between NI and the rest of the UK in some areas is obviously lost on the DUP.

Enzokk wrote: »

The irony that the pressure is coming from the UK car manufacturers to get a deal done and not the German car makers.

That was always going to be the case. Brexit posed a much bigger threat to the UK car industry than it did to the German car industry. I'm genuinely mystified as to how anyone could have failed to spot this right off.

The only way the Brexiter "German car industry will ensure we get a good deal" trope made any sense at all was if you assume that the EU authorities are sensitive to the concerns of the German car industry, but HMG is indifferent to the much more acute concerns of the UK car industry.

Another interesting link from an earlier piece (4 July) in the FT about why an FTA with no border will have complications on tax revenues for both countries.

What an Ikea bed tells us about Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan

To understand whether Boris Johnson’s plans for Brexit will work, consider the humble Malm bed from Ikea. The frontrunner to become UK prime minister denies he is already measuring the curtains for Number 10, but if he was checking out bedroom furniture on this week’s visit to Belfast, the bed would set him back £315. Alternatively he could drive to Dublin Ikea and buy the bed for €350. The prices match at Wednesday’s euro exchange rate of €1.114 against sterling.

In Belfast, having charged 20 per cent value added tax, HM Revenue & Customs would receive £52.50, while in one of the two Ikea stores near the Irish capital, Irish Tax and Customs would collect €65.45 from its 23 per cent VAT rate.

Let’s wind the clock forward four months to Mr Johnson’s dream Brexit, in which the EU signs a basic free trade agreement with the UK and keeps the Irish border open with no tariffs, no checks and no border infrastructure.

Under EU rules, British people would become eligible for an Irish VAT refund on their purchase of the Malm bed in Dublin. So long as they showed proof of residence in Northern Ireland and declared the goods would leave the EU, they would get a refund. The trip to Dublin would save Belfast consumers almost 20 per cent, not bad for a 100-mile drive and a bit of bureaucracy.

Hint to read the article, google the title and you should be able to read it when the search result is returned.

Enzokk wrote: »

James O'Brien is talking about the Irish border right now, link here to their player, not much of interest at the moment as yet. But he has shared this tweet about the Irish border with NI. I am not sure if this has been shared already.

https://twitter.com/marksugruek/status/1155957402312663041?s=20

There is a few tweets in that thread with pictures of the border, some very interesting areas where cows will be moving between the EU and outside of the EU within a barn.

And Johnson promised there would not be a border but they will leave the single market and customs union. As others have pointed out, we are back to the beginning where the UK wants to square that circle without any detail.

My local hardware store in in there. The border runs across the middle of the yard. Timber and supplies are in the south the shop bit is in the north.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

My local hardware store in in there. The border runs across the middle of the yard. Timber and supplies are in the south the shop bit is in the north.

Interesting pictures but the thought occurs; many of these structures, roads etc. pre-date the GFA and EU membership so how was the border administered in previous times?

First Up wrote: »

Interesting pictures but the thought occurs; many of these structures, roads etc. pre-date the GFA and EU membership so how was the border administered in previous times?

Many roads were blown up, simply impassable in a vehicle. Then you had 'unapproved' roads that crossed, where if caught transporting livestock or goods they were confiscated/you were fined etc. Then you had the approved roads with checkpoints and border posts.

That hardware business was a farm before the the GFA and has appeared since.

First Up wrote: »

Interesting pictures but the thought occurs; many of these structures, roads etc. pre-date the GFA and EU membership so how was the border administered in previous times?

Many people made a good living out of maximising movement of goods in both direction to avoid tax ,pocketing a 23% vat margin instead of handing it over to the tax man is a good example . And when the authorities tried to enforce collection , guns explosions and fire were used to discourage enforcement . Lawlessness ensues and the heavies take over , often using sectarian nicknames as cover .

Enzokk wrote: »

James O'Brien is talking about the Irish border right now, link here to their player, not much of interest at the moment as yet. But he has shared this tweet about the Irish border with NI. I am not sure if this has been shared already.

https://twitter.com/marksugruek/status/1155957402312663041?s=20

There is a few tweets in that thread with pictures of the border, some very interesting areas where cows will be moving between the EU and outside of the EU within a barn.

And Johnson promised there would not be a border but they will leave the single market and customs union. As others have pointed out, we are back to the beginning where the UK wants to square that circle without any detail.

The problem with tweets like this is that they seem to be saying that no technology can solve the border question, but that would imply that it is impossible for the UK to make a full break from the EU, and if you say that's impossible then the Brexit grassroots can ask why they're even bothering with the charade of respecting the Good Friday Agreement. In other words, they're playing into Brexiteers' hands. I mean, if these people are willing to endure a nosedive into recession, they're probably willing to endure a destabilised Northern Ireland.

Larbre34 wrote: »

What previously pertained, prior to Ireland and the UK entering the Common Market with businesses whose premises straddled the border, as they surely did?

Look up Slab Murphy.

Larbre34 wrote: »

What previously pertained, prior to Ireland and the UK entering the Common Market with businesses whose premises straddled the border, as they surely did?

Getting documents in order at 50's customs post.

briany wrote: »

The problem with tweets like this is that they seem to be saying that no technology can solve the border question, but that would imply that it is impossible for the UK to make a full break from the EU, and if you say that's impossible then the Brexit grassroots can ask why they're even bothering with the charade of respecting the Good Friday Agreement. In other words, they're playing into Brexiteers' hands. I mean, if these people are willing to endure a nosedive into recession, they're probably willing to endure a destabilised Northern Ireland.

It is not saying it is not possible for the UK to leave the EU, just not to do so without any impact on one party of another. Be that the GFA, Ireland, EU, NI or whatever. They nned to stick with the GFA because not do so is incredibly irresponsible to UK citizens living and working in NI.

This is something that seems to have totally bypassed the Brexiteers who even now are of the opinion that something should be done to fix the whole thing, but they don't seem to know what.

After 3 years we are back at the point we all started at, in a way Davis was right in terms of the fight of the summer. But instead of having the fight directly, the UK simply lied that they accepted the conditions and then spent 3 years complaining about the conditions.

But at the end of the day, none of this (problem with GFA) shou;d be a surprise to anyone and certainly not the UK government. That they have gone s far down a cul de sac is a problem of their making but instead of stopping and turning around they want the wall and houses at the end of the road torn down so they can continue on without having to stop.

Edit: I am pretty fed up with this line from the UK that Brexit is terribly hard and everyone should really help make it easier on them. As Brexiteers are so fond of telling everyone, people know what they were voting for, thus hey must have known the complications of the GFA and the NI. So why all this supposed angst that it is all so very difficult.

Even Johnson, only recently made PM, only policy seems to be that the EU need to sort out a solution. He can only say what he doesn't want, but has nothing to offer. Apparently this passes as leadership these days

Leroy42 wrote: »

That they have gone so far down a cul de sac is a problem of their making but instead of stopping and turning around they want the wall and houses at the end of the road torn down so they can continue on withut having to stop.

Very nicely put!

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is not saying it is not possible for the UK to leave the EU, just not to do so without any impact on one party of another. Be that the GFA, Ireland, EU, NI or whatever. They nned to stick with the GFA because not do so is incredibly irresponsible to UK citizens living and working in NI.

The reason so few Tory politicians (and, arguably, so few British citizens) care about their citizens in Northern Ireland is because they don't see them as fellow citizens in the UK.

Northern Ireland is "over there". It's not really part of the UK like England is, or Wales is, or that 'region' Scotland is. No, Northern Ireland is filled with Irish citizens. Not UK citizens and certainly not British citizens. They're practically outsiders, troublemakers, a heavy chain around the leg of the Union. Look at how much online discourse paints the potential for violence as an 'Irish' problem, completely ignoring the fact that the Troubles was a civil war inside the United Kingdom. The innocent Catholics gunned down while having their evening pints were UK citizens, the Protestant families displaced by IRA aggression were UK citizens. The protesters shot in the back by the British Army were UK citizens. But nope, no, far too difficult to admit that good and proper UK citizens could ever do that to each other. That was the Irish.

And if you look at how the backstop gets discussed, if you look at the tone of online discourse (or the tone coming out of some MPs) when Northern Ireland gets brought up, if you look at how easily the concerns of the Northern Irish are dismissed you'll see how those in power view their fellows in Northern Ireland. The people of Northern Ireland don't really count as citizens of the UK.

They're not British after all.

I may be a little bitter over how the people of NI have been treated and ignored and derisively insulted since the referendum, and I don't even have any family or friends there.

Yeah you constantly hear people from Northern Ireland being described as 'Irish' by the British media or British sportscasters.

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

So what do people think will happen. Johnson says he wont approach the EU unless they change the WA. EU says they wont, so what happens? Both sides sit it out until a No Deal?

Pretty much, the EU in granting the extension were quite clear and they would be crazy to roll back