Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

I'm probably going to be voting for Dooley at next GE. But that tweet was off the charts stupid.
I'd say only reason he hasn't deleted is it would be admitting he made a mistake.

FF need to come out asap and distance themselves from this as the Bojo team will jump on this as apparent disunity in the Irish government over the backstop..

Could have very serious implications and FF will have to take the blame if things go arseways because of this..

Tell me how wrote: »

I'd say they're ok there. UK media already focusing on only 43% of Irish people being happy with Varadkar Brexit approach. Thats a stat they can run with rather than an 'opposition' td.

Not so sure, some picked up on it straight away. This is from political editor of spectator. They are defo watching for any wobbling

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1156145767054270464

I'm not so sure about that...with Cummings on board every trick in the book will be used to get them out by the 31st if possible..

I'm wondering is the plan to make Bojo and co. look like the hardest brexiteers in order to win a snap election in a few weeks, dump the DUP and revert to the NI only backstop when suddenly it will become a non issue, according to them, as they will soon do a great deal with the EU therefore no need to worry....

BobbyBobberson wrote:

The foreign secretary was on the BBC saying this yesterday.

I'm asking if you have proof that they don't have the mandate?

.....

Editorial in the Financial Times - Brexit has become the enemy of the UK union :

"Boris Johnson’s ‘do or die’ strategy is gambling with Britain’s future...The prime minister’s twin ambitions are on a dangerous collision course. Brexit in any shape promises to weaken the bonds between the nations of the British Isles. I......"

lawred2 wrote: »

paywalled

displayed fine for me earlier - maybe you get one article free ?

"Boris Johnson declares himself a champion of the UK union, a prime minister who wants to strengthen “the ties that bind our United Kingdom”. Mr Johnson also promises to leave the EU — “do or die” — by the end of October. Just days in office, he has flatly dismissed the withdrawal deal agreed with Brussels by Theresa May, and ordered Whitehall to draw up plans for Britain to crash out of the EU without a deal.The prime minister’s twin ambitions are on a dangerous collision course.



Brexit in any shape promises to weaken the bonds between the nations of the British Isles. In the extreme form that seems to be the working assumption by Mr Johnson’s new administration, it will impose intolerable strains. This could set in train a process that ends with the break-up of the union. Mr Johnson’s promise of some extra Westminster funding scarcely measures up to the political forces he seems ready to unleash.


Visiting Scotland at the start of a tour to polish his unionist credentials (Belfast and Cardiff are also on the itinerary), Mr Johnson said he still wants an amicable agreement with the EU27. But he flatly rejected again any “backstop” clause to ensure the preservation of the open border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. The prime minister knows this is an impossible demand. The open border is integral to the Good Friday

Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland. The Republic of Ireland and the rest of the EU have rightly made it a red line.



Inconveniently, the start of Mr Johnson’s tour coincided with the publication of a blunt, independent analysis prepared by the Institute for Government think-tank. The prime minister’s no-deal Brexit, it said, would put “unprecedented pressure” on the UK union. Northern Ireland would suffer a double blow: its economy would take a disproportionate hit because of its close integration with the Republic, while political stability would be jeopardised by an inevitable hardening of the border. Opinion could begin to tip towards Irish reunification.


If Mr Johnson harboured any doubts as to the effects in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, will have removed them. Ms Davidson, the architect in recent years of a Tory revival in Scotland, has strongly criticised Mr Johnson’s ultimatum. She has also been angered by his decision to sack as Scottish secretary the middle-of-the-road Tory David Mundell, in favour of the hardline Brexiter Alister Jack.



Ms Davidson fears, and rightly so, that the economic chaos of a no-deal Brexit would play directly into the hands of Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish Nationalist party. Support for the SNP has been rising and demand for a second referendum on Scottish independence could become irresistible.


The IFG report debunked the idea that the government could properly prepare for a cliff-edge Brexit. The EU would set unilaterally the terms of any emergency arrangements, the government could not compel business to prepare for tariffs and regulatory controls, and ministers would lose all bargaining leverage once Britain had left the EU.


Mr Johnson and his fellow Brexiters like to talk about “the will of the people” because of the 52:48 per cent UK-wide majority in the 2016 referendum. In its latest guise, Brexit more closely resembles an English nationalist project. In Scotland some 62 per cent, and in Northern Ireland 56 per cent, voted to remain in the EU. Riding roughshod over these views by crashing out of the EU would be more than an act of gross political irresponsibility. It would be a signal of Mr Johnson’s contempt for the union."

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm asking if you have proof that they don't have the mandate?

Find a Leave referendum campaign position, or a Tory GE 2017 manifesto pledge, for no-deal Brexit, and that would be proof of the mandate Boris claims to have for his current policy.

So far, nobody (incl. FactCheck) has been able to find it, but you're welcome to present it and get your 15 mins of fame across the Brexit twittersphere and beyond.

eagle eye wrote: »

Have you proof of this?

See the data here, it's very telling when people started to realise they needed to know what No Deal was.

https://twitter.com/mikebutcher/status/1155830876963528706

https://twitter.com/denisstaunton/status/1156163199709974529

So, David Frost the now chief Brexit negotiator is already coming after worker's rights. No surprise, this is a big goal of life post-Brexit:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-eu-workers-rights-david-frost-theresa-may-barnier-a9025596.html

54&56 wrote: »

I think the point is that the referendum question is actually silent on the terms on which the UK would leave the EU.

It doesn't say "leave with a deal" and it doesn't say "leave with no deal", it just says "leave" and in the absence of a specific instruction on the terms of leaving it is up to the government of the day, with the consent of parliament to determine the terms on which the UK leaves and unfortunately the A50 Withdrawal Act (or whatever it's called) permits the govt to leave on Oct 31st without a deal unless some other law to the contrary is passed (very unlikely) or the govt falls due to a no confidence motion being successful in which case BoJo will likely ask for and get an extension from the EU to facilitate a GE which if he wins will enable him to return with an even stronger mandate for a NDB.

If in fact they end up in a GE, the best outcome would be that whatever government results, does not include the DUP. If that's Boris's goal, more power to him, those crazed bigots shouldn't be near the levers of power anywhere.

Looks like FF have been getting a lot of heat alright:

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1156169979135442946

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

There is no mandate from the British Public for WTO tarriffs.

WTO Tarrifs on imports which the UK will keep, are twice they amount Uk exporters EU customers will pay.

https://twitter.com/nealerichmond/status/1156127793840869376

Neale Richmond rightly nailing this.