Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 11:29PM

Enzokk wrote: »

For those Labour MPs that somehow still want Brexit but want workers rights protected, here we go.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1155936177620283392?s=20.

That's a great cover. Sturgeon literally did a hatchet job on him. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving person.

Call me Al · 29-07-2019 11:33PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can bizarrely see it from Boris' perspective. What's the point in having meetings where you're going to say, "can we talk about the wa"? And the reply is, "no. It's already agreed".

Talks can only go so far

He can't be seen to traipse across the channel again for another humiliating walk of shame home with nothing gained.
He's a brinkmanship fan, and said as much on rte when he was interviewed in Dublin earlier this year.

BobbyBobberson · 29-07-2019 11:33PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

That's a great cover. Sturgeon literally did a hatchet job on him. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving person.

She did indeed, and rightly so. UK promised Scotland they would remain part of the EU and that went well.

fqollere · 29-07-2019 11:36PM

Call me Al wrote: »

He can't be seen to traipse across the channel again for another humiliating walk of shame home with nothing gained.
He's a brinkmanship fan, and said as much on rte when he was interviewed in Dublin earlier this year.

I don't see the brinkmanship?

Call me Al · 29-07-2019 11:44PM

schmittel wrote: »

It’s not that Machiavellian. It’s pragmatic in the face of very few other options.

Essentially it’s a case of who blinks first:

1) Leo offers a concession on the border - win for Johnson, “I’ve put the Irish back in their box, they know their place” etc
2) EU cave on the backstop and ask Ireland to take one for the team - win for Johnson - “I’ve put the Irish and the Eu back in their box”
3) Parliament win a vote of no confidence - he can fight an election as champion of democracy.
4) none of the above - Boris blinks at last minute and asks for extension on basis of GenerL election, not as strong as having his hand forced but he can spin it.

All of the above are better than a continuation of Mays struggle with the parliamentary arithmetic.

If he is truly being Machiavellian his strategy might actually be to scare the DUP - “it’s ok Arlene, we’ve got your back, and it will be no deal before we’ll let you down”

maybe he thinks Arlene will blink first and realize tht no deal will hasten a United Ireland, and she will say “actually Boris, give us another billion and put the border in the Irish Sea”

The one person who i would feel pretty certain won't blink at all is Arlene Foster, and her party. There is no game for her. It's a "whole of UK" approach or its nothing with no deal because her electorate will not vote for anyone else once their union is seen to be maintained by them That trumps absolutely everything, and the rest of the NI electorate doesn't matter. It also doesn't matter that the medium/long-term consequences will destroy them. They aren't thinking that far ahead.

Call me Al · 29-07-2019 11:46PM

fqollere wrote: »

I don't see the brinkmanship?

I mean that he is going to drag this out until the last minute.

hometruths · 30-07-2019 12:00AM

Call me Al wrote: »

The one person who i would feel pretty certain won't blink at all is Arlene Foster, and her party. There is no game for her. It's a "whole of UK" approach or its nothing with no deal because her electorate will not vote for anyone else once their union is seen to be maintained by them That trumps absolutely everything, and the rest of the NI electorate doesn't matter. It also doesn't matter that the medium/long-term consequences will destroy them. They aren't thinking that far ahead.

I was reading about the PLaid/Lib Dems pact in the Breton byelection and it got me thinking that the DUP ought to be very vulnerable to tactical voting in a general election.

If the Lib Dems could go into NI on a on a remain campaign, and say forget about Nationalist/unionist for just one election, punish the DUP for what they have done here, they could do well.

given that this is an area that the anti-DUP electorate votes in MPs in the full knowledge they will not take their seats you’d think some of them might lend their votes elsewhere in just one election!

Shelga · 30-07-2019 12:08AM

Why did Labour and others ever vote to agree to hold the referendum? Genuine question.

And why did they vote to trigger article 50, without a plan? The Tories are mostly responsible for this mess, but any MP who voted for either of these things has to have some accountability as well.

Call me Al · 30-07-2019 12:12AM

schmittel wrote: »

I was reading about the PLaid/Lib Dems pact in the Breton byelection and it got me thinking that the DUP ought to be very vulnerable to tactical voting in a general election.

If the Lib Dems could go into NI on a on a remain campaign, and say forget about Nationalist/unionist for just one election, punish the DUP for what they have done here, they could do well.

given that this is an area that the anti-DUP electorate votes in MPs in the full knowledge they will not take their seats you’d think some of them might lend their votes elsewhere in just one election!

"...say forget about Nationalist/unionist for just one election..." ??? LOL
It's practically a genetic condition. And the behaviour of the Tories over this past three years has done nothing more than make each side more entrenched.

J Mysterio · 30-07-2019 12:13AM

I can't quite believe what I am reading here.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1155882827927425024

This is mad how we are casually being mentioned as a potential victim here.

Lackadaisical · 30-07-2019 12:19AM

It could also end up completely backfiring and throwing the UK deal with the US into absolute chaos. I don't think they UK media fully realises that's a possibility.

Strazdas · 30-07-2019 12:27AM

Shelga wrote: »

Why did Labour and others ever vote to agree to hold the referendum? Genuine question.

And why did they vote to trigger article 50, without a plan? The Tories are mostly responsible for this mess, but any MP who voted for either of these things has to have some accountability as well.

Everyone bought into the "will of the people" nonsense. The supposed instruction from the public trumped everything : logic, commonsense, lack of planning etc

The atmosphere in the nine months after the referendum was toxic. The right wing rags were calling anyone who disagreed with the referendum result a "traitor".

Strazdas · 30-07-2019 12:31AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I can't quite believe what I am reading here.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1155882827927425024

This is mad how we are casually being mentioned as a potential victim here.

This is very good from Faisal, one of the best theories I've heard about what Johnson is up to in the last week or so. As he says though, it's incredibly high risk and there's a danger things could spiral out of Johnson's control

Bit cynical · 30-07-2019 12:35AM

Shelga wrote: »

Why did Labour and others ever vote to agree to hold the referendum? Genuine question.

And why did they vote to trigger article 50, without a plan? The Tories are mostly responsible for this mess, but any MP who voted for either of these things has to have some accountability as well.

They also voted against the deal May negotiated with the EU which means we'll most likely have a hard border after the current extension runs out.

J Mysterio · 30-07-2019 12:35AM

Strazdas wrote: »

This is very good from Faisal, one of the best theories I've heard about what Johnson is up to in the last week or so. As he says though, it's incredibly high risk and there's a danger things could spiral out of Johnson's control

I thought it a poor theory myself. I thought we ourselves had already nailed it.

Strazdas · 30-07-2019 12:39AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I thought it a poor theory myself. I thought we ourselves had already nailed it.

There is zero chance it would succeed though. Ireland caving in on the backstop would be a massive setback for the Irish Govt and the EU.

BobbyBobberson · 30-07-2019 12:43AM

From the article

"If he can also convey a sense of parliamentary unity behind his position, he should be able to force the EU into compromise -- that is, the EU agreeing to a multi-stage process that combines a formal Brexit on Oct. 31 with various transitional agreements to minimize the risks of a disorderly exit process."

What a load of piss. The EU have kept the same line for three years now, they have their set position and to be honest why would they change when the lunatics are running the asylum. The EU project is much more important than the UK as a whole. They will not throw Ireland under the bus, neither will they allow the UK to cherry pick.

fqollere · 30-07-2019 01:08AM

Talk radio LBC discussion

Why does Boris Johnson continue to be so inflexible?

hill16bhoy · 30-07-2019 01:12AM

Irish public opinion will ultimately decide whether our Government folds under British pressure as regards the backstop.

Prepare for a full blown propaganda campaign with bots attempting to run riot.

I don't think it'll work and I think it'll probably have the opposite effect to what is intended, i) because most Irish people who are online are wise to this sort of carry on and ii) because most people are not on Twitter.

One thing Britain doesn't really understand about the mentality of most Irish people is that there are huge colonial overtones to the pressure they are trying to put on the Irish Government - if there's one thing we're deeply hostile to, it's our former colonial master trying to bully and blackmail us.

Bit cynical · 30-07-2019 01:15AM

fqollere wrote: »

Talk radio LBC discussion

Why does Boris Johnson continue to be so inflexible?

He can't reopen negotiations on a deal because any deal acceptable to parliament is not acceptable to the EU and vice versa.

reslfj · 30-07-2019 01:24AM

VinLieger wrote: »

... "its not No deal because weve already done all these mini deals"....

"all these deals" = EU's planned unitaerally actions the help (only) EU citizens and companies.

Maybe we - in the EU27 - should not mitigate anything at all post Brexit date. If the UK refuses to understand, people in the UK better feel everything hard and full - from day 1.

I.E. No UK long haul lorries within the EU27, no flights to/from the EU27 , no EURATOM, no radioactive medicine, no..., no ...

From Brexit day 1

Lars

Foghladh · 30-07-2019 06:39AM

Shelga wrote: »

Why did Labour and others ever vote to agree to hold the referendum? Genuine question.

And why did they vote to trigger article 50, without a plan? The Tories are mostly responsible for this mess, but any MP who voted for either of these things has to have some accountability as well.

Because they thought the majority would be in favour of remaining in the EU, put simply. Nick Clegg did a Guardian piece as the leader of the Lib Dems 10 years ago calling for the Under 50s to have their voice. It was supposed to lance the boil of Euroscepticism and expose it as the most minority. It didn't work out very well.

woohoo!!! · 30-07-2019 06:58AM

Several comentators in the UK pointing out now that the whole strategy is based on the EU blinking, particularly Dublin. However, whilst the EU always tries to move to ensure unity with it's members, the UK is exiting to be a third country. So ratcheting up the rhetoric and propaganda aimed to divide for the next 3 months. Cos I'm worth it, problem is they ain't.

ambro25 · 30-07-2019 07:37AM

reslfj wrote: »

"all these deals" = EU's planned unitaerally actions the help (only) EU citizens and companies.

Maybe we - in the EU27 - should not mitigate anything at all post Brexit date. If the UK refuses to understand, people in the UK better feel everything hard and full - from day 1.

I.E. No UK long haul lorries within the EU27, no flights to/from the EU27 , no EURATOM, no radioactive medicine, no..., no ...

From Brexit day 1

Lars

As Schadenfreundish as all that sounds, it's not in the EU's, nor in each of the EU27's, collective and individual best interests to be seen to throw an ex-member, even a foul-mouthed piece of aggravation like the current UK, under the geopolitical bus.

It would fuel up hard right Eurosceptics the length and breadth of the Continent for starters, besides PR-turning the UK into a martyr, rather than the sovereign country reaping the fruits of its self-decided course of action.

Far better for the EU27 to just continue free-wheeling as they have done since November 2018, impassive in the face of the UK political system tearing itself apart before the world, and fast-preparing (prep-finishing, even?) for no-deal to make that outcome ever-more manageable.

So Johnson doesn't want to meet unless we re-open the WA? Fine then, got better things to do with our time anyway, starting with a long holiday after the past roller-coasting year. Toodle-doo.

First Up · 30-07-2019 07:40AM

BluePlanet wrote:

Let me paint you a dark picture:

This picture was obvious to everyone in the Commission by about 8 am the morning after the Brexit vote. Believe me, nobody has doubted it would be part of the UK's strategy.

BluePlanet wrote:

They intentionally sabotage our "commitment" to the Customs Union and Single Market by smuggling prohibited food stuffs (bovine growth hormones or cholorinated chicken) into mainland Europe via the NI border.

The border issue is yet to be finalised but nothing will be allowed leave Ireland for mainland Europe until it has shown to be in full compliance with SM rules. The checks may not be at the border but they will be at Dublin, Rosslare and Ringaskiddy. The plans for this are are ready.

BluePlanet wrote:

France and Germany and others are appalled and are compelled to place checks on goods and produce from Ireland, or even bans, due to the mounting impracticability and political poison of policing the border here.

Not necessary as explained above and in numerous posts previously. This issue has been flagged for years. The EU's border administration (Frontex) is all over it.

VinLieger · 30-07-2019 07:50AM

Looks like the pound dipped below 1.09 overnight, gonna be a very interesting day, will we see a 5 year low?

KildareP · 30-07-2019 08:28AM

Mr. Sammy Wilson, Esq., M.P. on TalkRadio UK this morning with the usual Brexit bingo montage:
- Backstop is a trap (no mention of indications of support for it in NI)
- Boris approach is going to win through because its in the EU's interests to do a deal
- No Deal going to impact the EU just as dramatically as the UK (but no specifics on impact of UK, or specifically NI impact)
- Ireland will suffer from not having access to UK security intelligence
- Irish exports are in trouble because 60% beef goes to UK (and they're going to stop eating beef on Nov 1st?)
- We are just mostly Brit-Bashing because it's popular to do here
- Ireland overplayed our hand
- Germany and France will ultimately force our hand to do a deal
- We will be disposed of once our usefulness is done with by the EU
- We are now panicking as the realisation sinks in

When challenged about the possibility of break-up of the UK:
- United Ireland is not going to happen
- No election or opinion poll indications of a desire for a UI
- Scottish Independence is just the SNP being hellbent on having a re-run of the referendum and that it's up to the UK parliament whether a second referendum is allowed

brickster69 · 30-07-2019 08:29AM

Sounds like everything has gone back to the start again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nT-Cq7zVdpY&feature=youtu.be

KildareP · 30-07-2019 08:31AM

And now the following studio panel discussion, including presenter, are talking about the French, the Germans, Varadkar's approval rating has plummeted, No Deal will decimate Ireland, the EU will cave, in the EU interests to have a deal so they will do one.

Jesus wept, "we are where we are", should instead be "we are where we were" three years ago!

MrMusician18 · 30-07-2019 08:38AM

I think we need to rewind a bit. Somehow the discussion in the media and here seems to have changed into the strategy being a game of chicken. It not. Johnson's government doesn't expect the EU to change course.

This is all about putting the frighteners on parliament, to engineer a general election. Torpedoing the pound is part of that. Wait and watch the rhetoric ramp up to force the saner people into action.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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