Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus · 29-07-2019 09:52AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Would find it very hard to believe that the above still holds given the utter disregard and disdain shown to Scotland since the Brexit vote..

I think you may well be right. While the strong Tory performance in Scotland in teh 2017 General election was a contrast with the rest of the UK, in the EP elections in May the Tory performance was as dismal in Scotland as it was everywhere else.

Beechwoodspark · 29-07-2019 09:52AM

The reality is if no deal happens the Eu can tighten the screws in many ways.

which after a period of chaos (length of time at the UKs choosing) will end up with the UK Back knocking on the door in Brussels asking for this that and the other.

Ppl seem to be of a view (possibly because we receive their media coverage) that the UK are the stronger hand in this. They are not.

IAmTheReign · 29-07-2019 09:59AM

lawred2 wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-northern-ireland-direct-rule-dominic-raab-boris-johnson-a9024801.html

And we're back 50 years. DUP will be dancing for joy and ensuring that Stormont never reconvenes.

Sickened

Direct rule in the north was inevitable if a no deal Brexit happened and Stormont still wasn't sitting. Someone needs to manage the carnage at the border.

KildareP · 29-07-2019 10:01AM

lawred2 wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-northern-ireland-direct-rule-dominic-raab-boris-johnson-a9024801.html

And we're back 50 years. DUP will be dancing for joy and ensuring that Stormont never reconvenes.

Sickened

Not necessarily

The amendment that passed in the last fortnight effectively said direct rule will happen if Stormont is not up and running by October 21st.

However, this also come with a provision of normalising the laws regarding same-sex marriage and abortion in line with mainland UK.

It puts the DUP in what must be a horrific conundrum - get their dream scenario of the UK having ultimate say over NI, or maintain their strong stance against SSM and abortion rights?

And in the longer term gain, it presents a huge risk to them.
Once Westminster is in ultimate control the DUP suddenly become very small fish in a very big pond. Johnson in an election scenario can aim to squeeze the DUP out, thereby reducing the need to bend to their will - Irish Sea backstop here we come!

Tell me how · 29-07-2019 10:02AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

The reality is if no deal happens the Eu can tighten the screws in many ways.

which after a period of chaos (length of time at the UKs choosing) will end up with the UK Back knocking on the door in Brussels asking for this that and the other.

Ppl seem to be of a view (possibly because we receive their media coverage) that the UK are the stronger hand in this. They are not.

Once they are out, I fear we are going to see a wider propaganda war. Any difficulties experienced in UK will most definitely be blamed on EU intransigence and, more significantly, the UK will encourage others to join them.

I bet French nationalists will start to talk about an Anglo-Franco alignment which would be much better for French citizens than what the EU is (or so they'll say).

Nigel launched 'Global Brexit' last week in NY. The big players in this want the EU destroyed (or at a minimum, severely distracted) I fear and they have a plan to do it.

It is v worrying, not least because it's preventing coordinated action on climate change. French had record heat temp last week, and on the same day, a hail storm forced the cancellation of a stage in the Tour de France.

KildareP · 29-07-2019 10:09AM

Tell me how wrote: »

Once they are out, I fear we are going to see a wider propaganda war. Any difficulties experienced in UK will most definitely be blamed on EU intransigence and, more significantly, the UK will encourage others to join them.

I bet French nationalists will start to talk about an Anglo-Franco alignment which would be much better for French citizens than what the EU is (or so they'll say).

Nigel launched 'Global Brexit' last week in NY. The big players in this want the EU destroyed (or at a minimum, severely distracted) I fear and they have a plan to do it.

It is v worrying, not least because it's preventing coordinated action on climate change. French had record heat temp last week, and on the same day, a hail storm forced the cancellation of a stage in the Tour de France.

The French *hate* the British, in some cases even more than the Irish are perceived to. I can't see it being even slightly popular in France.

The difference between being largely ignored and met with French-only dialogue, and being warmly welcomed with near-fluent English, is letting them know you're "Irlandais" and not "Anglais".

lawred2 · 29-07-2019 10:13AM

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Direct rule in the north was inevitable if a no deal Brexit happened and Stormont still wasn't sitting. Someone needs to manage the carnage at the border.

Someone like the British Army? We could go full 1970s on it.

Tell me how · 29-07-2019 10:14AM

KildareP wrote: »

The French *hate* the British, in some cases even more than the Irish are perceived to. I can't see it being even slightly popular in France.

Agree completely.
But it doesn't have to make sense. It just has to sound like it does.

It would have nothing to do with nationalists wanting to join with the UK but just to say 'we could do it if we were free of the ties of the EU' and here's the catchphrase 'it would be on our terms'.

Like both UK and Trump are talking about a trade deal between a former Empire and colony like it's going to be the best thing ever.

KildareP · 29-07-2019 10:22AM

Tell me how wrote: »

Like both UK and Trump are talking about a trade deal between a former Empire and colony like it's going to be the best thing ever.

True that!

I'm just waiting for the moment of realisation that Trump will be approaching this entirely with his/America's interests to the fore, not the UK's... It's going to be something to behold.

Enzokk · 29-07-2019 10:24AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I don't think Scottish voters are so thick as to vote in an election primarily based on their perception of someone who isn't a candidate in the election, and cannot play any role in the government which will emerge from that election. I admit I have never lived in Scotland but I have lived in other democracies where there are separate national and regional/state elections, and generally the voters seem to have no difficult at all in distinguishing the issues and personalities that are relevant to the different elections.

Nicola Sturgeon represents which constituency in Scotland in Westminster?

General election 2017: BBC hosts debate with six Scottish leaders

BBC Scotland's live election debate from Edinburgh will now feature six party leaders.

The BBC had originally announced a 90-minute debate featuring Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson, Kezia Dugdale, Willie Rennie and Patrick Harvie.

However, following confirmation of the number of candidates standing in the election, UKIP Scottish leader David Coburn will now join them.

The debate will take place at 19:30 on Sunday 21 May.

It will be the first Scottish leaders' debate of the General Election campaign and will be presented by Sarah Smith and Jackie Bird.

Peregrinus wrote: »

False dichotomy; it doesn't have to be due to either May or Davidson.

For the reasons already given I doubt that Davidson has much to do with the Tory success in Scotland in the 2017 general election. And, for reasons which are obvious, I also doubt that May had to do with it.

So what did? Well, I think it's notable that the swing to the Tories, 13.7%, almost exactly matched the swing away from the SNP, 13.1%. I think the factor was Brexit. Some former supporters of Scottish independence felt that it was a less attractive prospect if rump UK would be outside the EU, and so abandoned the SNP. But pro-EU unionists did not switch to the SNP; they prioritised the British union over the European Union. And of course it was not at that stage clear what a complete pig's breakfast May and the Tories were about to make of the Brexit project.

See my link above, Davidson was the voice for the Conservatives in Scotland like Sturgeon was for the SNP. Just because they are not in Westminster doesn't mean they are not in charge of their campaigns for their countries.

As for why the SNP lost votes, there were a lot of influences on why they lost 13%. I think a lot of it had to do with the fact they kept on talking about a new independence referendum when the circumstances did not change since the last one. Now in the subsequent years there has been a change and so people seem to have more of an appetite for independence again.

Also, Scotland had a vote of 38% to leave the EU. If you accept that most of that vote went to the Conservatives with the collapse of UKIP then there is still about 10% of leavers out there. Maybe Labour sitting on the fence took some of those as well.

Borderhopper · 29-07-2019 10:36AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Borderhopper wrote: »

Just listening to news talk at the minute with Dan O’Brien from the Irish independent. His opinion is that the backstop is a tactical mistake, the Irish government should’ve agreed a time limit, there’s a massive miscalculation by the EU and Irish government that the UK aren’t really serious about no deal. In other words, no one is stupid enough to shoot themselves in the head.

Is this a narrative developing in the media in Ireland now? It’s a few time I’ve heard both guests and hosts comment on how much of a mistake the backstop is.

Dan O'Brien is a dose.

Did you mean "no one is NOT stupid enough to shoot themselves in the head."

Either way - that's not exactly a credible basis from which to set out a negotiation position is it? That you need to prepare and cater for the lunatic excesses of your counter negotiating party?

At the end of it all - while no deal Brexit is bad for Ireland - it's infinitely worse for the UK and the Tories are on record as saying even without a backstop they still wouldn't vote for the WA so why does Dan think Ireland and the EU should compromise everything for nothing in return?

What was his alternative?

No, I meant it as written as a glib summation of the EU approach to the WA negotiation.

His opinion was that a time limit should’ve been offered to May’s team, but it’s too late now as the EUs position has forced the UK into a corner and enabled the rise of the current regime. Never mind that it’s UK painting the floor with red lines that formed the EUs approach.

Personally, I think the EU and Ireland can’t give on the WA, even if it means the return of border infrastructure. There are more issues at stake than just Brexit. US, China etc are watching closely, not just to asset strip UK, but also for the EUs response to pig headed negotiating. And I say this as an Irish citizen in the north.

Enzokk · 29-07-2019 10:44AM

Dominic Raab showing why he is not fit for office as he is caught out in an interview,

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1155759804968833024?s=20

So the EU has not been flexible in not shelving the backstop. When asked what flexibility the UK has shown he mentions they have only had a week so there is still time to show that flexibility. They have only been asking the EU to drop the backstop a week. What a charlatan and fraud.

DOCARCH · 29-07-2019 10:50AM

Enzokk wrote: »

They have only been asking the EU to drop the backstop a week. What a charlatan and fraud.

The 'undemocratic backstop'....that the UK proposed and the EU accepted.

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 11:06AM

Enzokk wrote: »

Dominic Raab showing why he is not fit for office as he is caught out in an interview,

twitter link removed

So the EU has not been flexible in not shelving the backstop. When asked what flexibility the UK has shown he mentions they have only had a week so there is still time to show that flexibility. They have only been asking the EU to drop the backstop a week. What a charlatan and fraud.

Stunning.

Reminds me a bit of a teenager caught out in a lie. 'Were you smoking'? no, uh, uhm...

I too now notice that the backstop is no longer the 'backstop' but is now referred to by all UK cabinet ministers/ Brexiteers as the 'undemocratic backstop', as pointed out by someone here the last few days. Obviously they are looking to get the Brexity public onside with them in opposition to the backstop by referring to it as 'undemocratic'.

The Undemocratic EU, the Undemocratic Backstop. Spin, spin, spin. Lies, lies, lies. Unashamed and unabashed bo1locks.

Getting very annoyed with the new UK government to be honest. They are a disgrace.

ISOP · 29-07-2019 11:09AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Stunning.

Reminds me a bit of a teenager caught out in a lie. 'Were you smoking'? no, uh, uhm...

I too now notice that the backstop is no longer the 'backstop' but is now referred to by all UK cabinet ministers/ Brexiteers as the 'undemocratic backstop', as pointed out by someone here the last few days. Obviously they are looking to get the Brexity public onside with them in opposition to the backstop by referring to it as 'undemocratic'.

The Undemocratic EU, the Undemocratic Backstop. Spin, spin, spin. Lies, lies, lies. Unashamed and unabashed bo1locks.

Getting very annoyed with the new UK government to be honest. They are a disgrace.

the undemocratic backstop which the UK came up with it. It has been drilled into them now to drive this message at every opportunity. I can't actually take much more of this ****e

lawred2 · 29-07-2019 11:11AM

ISOP wrote: »

the undemocratic backstop which the UK came up with it. It has been drilled into them now to drive this message at every opportunity. I can't actually take much more of this ****e

the whole thing is being clearly stage managed by some entity that has purchased these shameless politicians

Enzokk · 29-07-2019 11:12AM

Just as an aside to the conversation on Scotland, here we have Ruth Davidson being firm that she is not on board with no-deal.

I won’t support no-deal Brexit, says defiant Ruth Davidson

Ruth Davidson has issued a defiant challenge to Boris Johnson, pledging she will refuse to back a no-deal Brexit before his first visit to Scotland as prime minister.

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives is expected to meet Johnson in Edinburgh on Monday, after the prime minister begins his trip north with a visit on the west coast.

What I find interesting is that she is safe in that she can oppose Johnson for the very fact that she is not an MP so doesn't have to sign up to the no-deal pledge that would likely follow if there is a general election. Also, she is not happy with the route the government is taking but she is happy to sit behind their resources.

She also underlined her opposition to the creation of a separate Scottish Conservative party, which some supporters have suggested is the only way to consolidate the gains that she has achieved in Scotland against the ramifications of Johnson’s Brexit strategy.

I would have thought if she was so opposed to her Tory Party position she would be happy to go on her own, but it seems like she is more in tune with the party message than she pretends to be to the electorate.

lawred2 · 29-07-2019 11:16AM

Saw an interview with Ruth Davidson during the run up to Boris' elevation to top deviant - she hadn't spoken to him - he had made zero effort to engage with her, had made no plans to nor shown any inclination to ever do so and she seemed less than enthusiastic about following up with him...

It's clear that Boris is SE England man and that's all he's playing to.

I wonder did he ever ring her?

He'll need her and her colleagues votes!

BobbyBobberson · 29-07-2019 11:17AM

BBC news dominated by No Deal headlines this morning. Stories from Vauxhall, CBI IfG all leading the news.

fash · 29-07-2019 11:22AM

DOCARCH wrote: »

The 'undemocratic backstop'....that the UK proposed and the EU accepted.

I'm thinking the plan is to move to a " let's see what the people of NI want".

Stop moaning ffs · 29-07-2019 11:28AM

fash wrote: »

I'm thinking the plan is to move to a " let's see what the people of NI want".

I’m seeing that pop up now and then.
They can’t give NI a referendum on the backstop (though they should). You’ll have massive outcry in Britain saying ‘how come they get effectively a second referendum on brexit and we don’t?’

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 11:29AM

Our Irish-American friends are increasing the pressure, per IT:

US/UK trade deal ‘impossible’ if peace accord undermined, warns letter

A committee set up in the United States to protect the Belfast Agreement has warned the incoming Northern Ireland Secretary that a future US-UK trade deal will be “all but impossible” if the peace accord is undermined.

The bipartisan group, which includes five former US ambassadors to Ireland, two former state governors and foreign policy experts including Nancy Soderberg, said it was “deeply concerned” at UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s rejection of the backstop last week.

“We remain deeply concerned given the new prime minister’s recent statement in the Commons that there can be no Irish backstop in the withdrawal agreement, even one with a time limit,” states the letter to Julian Smith that has been seen by The Irish Times. “We view the belief that alternative arrangements can easily solve the problem of the Irish Border with a healthy scepticism as do many experts.”

Noting house speaker Nancy Pelosi’s comments to The Irish Times last week that Congress will not sign off on a trade deal if the peace agreement is undermined, the letter states that a trade deal will be “all but impossible”.

lawred2 · 29-07-2019 11:40AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Our Irish-American friends are increasing the pressure, per IT:

US/UK trade deal ‘impossible’ if peace accord undermined, warns letter

How much of this is a genuine concern for Ireland and NI and how much of this is internal US intra party politics with the purpose to frustrate the Trumpster and his love for Boris and the best trade deal ever?

VinLieger · 29-07-2019 11:54AM

lawred2 wrote: »

How much of this is a genuine concern for Ireland and NI and how much of this is internal US intra party politics with the purpose to frustrate the Trumpster and his love for Boris and the best trade deal ever?

The support for Ireland is one of the few issues that seems to bridge the normal partisan politics in the US, however we will need to see if that holds true once Trump gets more involved in any trade negotiations.

Laois_Man · 29-07-2019 11:55AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Our Irish-American friends are increasing the pressure, per IT:

US/UK trade deal ‘impossible’ if peace accord undermined, warns letter

Johnson won't care - he's only interested in what voters will believe on a soon to be election day!

Leroy42 · 29-07-2019 11:56AM

There will be a deal with the US, I think I recall seeing that Australia were ready for a deal as soon as the UK exits.

And they will be sold as great achievements, a poke in the eye of the EU and proof that 'Project Fear' was a nonsense.

But what media outlet is actually going to do any deep dive on the agreements? C4 maybe.

Any interviews will be dominated by people like Raab etc claiming that it was done, they said it couldn't be done, Brexit is a success blah blah. But at no stage will anybody actually ask how it is better than what they had before.

robinph · 29-07-2019 11:56AM

lawred2 wrote: »

How much of this is a genuine concern for Ireland and NI and how much of this is internal US intra party politics with the purpose to frustrate the Trumpster and his love for Boris and the best trade deal ever?

I doubt that the US population particularly cares one way or the other about a trade deal with the UK or anything that Trump might do or say regarding it so don't think it has much weight regarding anti/ pro Trump issues.

It does show that some politicians in the US are paying attention and care about the UK not being too much of an idiot and doing something damaging to Ireland.

DOCARCH · 29-07-2019 11:58AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There will be a deal with the US, I think I recall seeing that Australia were ready for a deal as soon as the UK exits.

Any deals done that quickly is unlikely to be favorable to the UK!

The UK may accept deals for the optics.

Lackadaisical · 29-07-2019 11:58AM

Well Boris may have miscalculated too by wedding the UK to the Trump side of US politics as the trade deal is now US domestic political issue.

Also if Trump starts to go into decline, they're faced with being tarnished by the whole thing. It could even become more of a mess if any UK based actors in the big data space show up in trying to influence US elections.

Leroy42 · 29-07-2019 12:13PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any deals done that quickly is unlikely to be favorable to the UK!

The UK may accept deals for the optics.

That is exactly what they will do.

Headline in the Express:

"Shock to EU as UK lands MASSIVE US Trade Deal"

Trump talked about increasing trade 4 or 5 times. But he is talking about US trade, not UK trade.

And nobody will actually pay attention. Headlines are all that matters.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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