Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Spanish Eyes · 27-07-2019 09:53PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Brexit as a farce. "Do as I say, not as I do"

The official transcript of parliamentary proceedings, Hansard, records more than 700 instances of Rees-Mogg using one or other of the banned words or phrases.

Command and control of the Civil Servants there. Sure didn't Cummings say that the present make up of the Civil Service is outdated, and the end is nigh for Permanent Secretaries.

There is something sinister happening now in UK. I cannot put my finger on it, but maybe I am over reacting or something now.

Sam Russell · 27-07-2019 09:59PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Everyone lives through history, every year, decade, had it's pivotal moments.

I guess what's rare here is that this is recognized as historic before it's even happened.

Well, yes.

But some events are more pivotal than others. Why, just fifty years ago, man walked on the moon. That is possibly the most pivotal moment in the last fifty years, possibly 70 years.

The GFA was pivotal for Ireland, NI, and the UK. Possibly the most pivotal in the last fifty years since the moon landing.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, that will be significant - and possibly pivotal for the UK, the EU, and most definitely for us.

Now other things have happened, like the Berlin Wall coming down, but on the scale of those events for us, they do not really figure in our world.

BobbyBobberson · 27-07-2019 10:06PM

On top of that, Brexit is so drawn out which makes you feel like you are living through history. Other events were so much quicker and you live in the aftermath but we are three years into this shyte and still have to hit the aftermath!

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 10:08PM

Next pivotal moment following from all this is the Union Jack being taken down over stormont and the tricolour or whatever replaces the Irish flag going up over it.

Zubeneschamali · 27-07-2019 10:12PM

People thought the moon landings were pivotal, but they weren't. They ended the space race, and started a 50 year retreat from manned space flight.

Brexit feels historic, but it is still possible that it never even happens and in 5 years Brexit and Boris are remembered only as farce.

FrancieBrady · 27-07-2019 10:16PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

People thought the moon landings were pivotal, but they weren't. They ended the space race, and started a 50 year retreat from manned space flight.

Brexit feels historic, but it is still possible that it never even happens and in 5 years Brexit and Boris are remembered only as farce.

Has the UK gone beyond the point of healing though? In my opinion I think it has, it is pulling itself apart because of the inherent fault that was always present - it's England-centric core.

27-07-2019 10:21PM

In five years time (if it happens) Brexit will be seen as the first step in the reversal of corporate globalisation, or the replacement of the EU with the US as the external influence over the UK.

Water John · 27-07-2019 10:22PM

The fringes can only feel unloved. Presuming a GE (likely) what is the possibility of the Tories losing all Scotland?

Donal, funny if UK ties itself to a waning manufacturing powerhouse.

BobbyBobberson · 27-07-2019 10:24PM

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1155222882223624192

This from the Times. Telegraph leads with story on Javid splashing the cash on no deal. Three years ago people voted for the best deal ever, now its destination No Deal. Mental.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1155223245618077696

Sam Russell · 27-07-2019 10:31PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

People thought the moon landings were pivotal, but they weren't. They ended the space race, and started a 50 year retreat from manned space flight.

Well, that is your opinion.

The moon missions ended because they were pointless as there was no future in them. Technology at the time had been overstretched. Men currently occupy the Space Station as it circles the earth, and many unmanned missions have been successful.

However, there have been many missions (unmanned) such as Voyager I and II that have brought us huge value in terms of knowledge about the Solar System, and about the Universe.

Plans are there for manned missions to Mars - if ever they go ahead.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-07-2019 10:33PM

Sunday Times saying UK govt going to go all out for No Deal with no negotiations until the EU drops the backstop.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2/R-ofAjJIHtaB0unSz-ljNQ/https/storify.com/services/proxy/2/cCZW6SWMICBQ2xO2-Z6E7w/https/media.fyre.co/ZKNn62Tl6lE1ob4cBhig_stpp2807n001-01_1564258219_001.png

Prepare for a lot of nastiness coming Ireland's way. What we have seen so far is just the start.

There is no way they actually want to leave with No Deal. This is just a charade for the hard core Brexiter base.

hill16bhoy · 27-07-2019 10:36PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1155222882223624192

This from the Times. Telegraph leads with story on Javid splashing the cash on no deal. Three years ago people voted for the best deal ever, now its destination No Deal. Mental.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1155223245618077696

Ooh, a "war" cabinet.

It's like The Day Today.

Did the Brits say "the Irish are ramping up the rhetoric"?!

Zubeneschamali · 27-07-2019 10:43PM

Nothing on Brexit since Christmas has had anything to do with the EU. It's all just for effect on Westminster politics. The EU just has to nod and smile until the next deadline forces the UK to acknowledge reality long enough to ask for another extension, and then go back to nodding and smiling.

Strazdas · 27-07-2019 11:24PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

People thought the moon landings were pivotal, but they weren't. They ended the space race, and started a 50 year retreat from manned space flight.

Brexit feels historic, but it is still possible that it never even happens and in 5 years Brexit and Boris are remembered only as farce.

My gut feeling is the UK is heading for something really bad. I could easily imagine riots in cities all over the country directly linked to Brexit (maybe that is the thing that would snap them out of the nuttiness).

Water John · 27-07-2019 11:28PM

Kermit, we have no way of knowing whether they would actually leave with No Deal. More importantly, we shouldn't be wasting any time trying to find the answer. Just play the game in front of us.

listermint · 27-07-2019 11:28PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In five years time (if it happens) Brexit will be seen as the first step in the reversal of corporate globalisation, or the replacement of the EU with the US as the external influence over the UK.

I quite literally do not understand where this unadulterated nonsense comes from.

Brexits sole purpose was to remove tax directives from the EU from the UK sphere.

Coupled with that it's an ample opportunity for diaster capitalism, which will be a collective sell off off bits and pieces of the UK national services property etc to international hedge funds.

The pretence that this is not going to be a local coup with global money is laughable. I can't understand how someone can think this will make the UK some sort of North Korea isolated and void of foreign influence.

Gas stuff altogether. Do you come up with this yourself or is it twitter?

Reverse globalization ! Excellent!lol

reslfj · 27-07-2019 11:35PM

Deleted User wrote: »

.... Brexit will be seen as the first step in the reversal of corporate globalisation, ....

Not a chance in hell. Globalisation is her to stay. It's just like the Luddites in 1800-1825 did not succeed in removing any new technology for more than a few days or weeks.

Globalisation has nothing to do with the EU or US as organisations/states, but is driven by technology that has made it possible:

To get a full container with goods from Asia/China to Europe or USA for around $1000.
To fly to Australia return for under £500
To browse almost for free even the .cn, .jp, .au or .nz web-domains from servers in these countries.
etc, etc....

This is not going to change - not now, not ever.

I and most people will buy inexpensive clothes, shoes and phones ... from Asia or in some years from Africa. We will not - as in never - care about or buy any local production unless they they are strictly competitive. You simply can't save jobs by closing a country.
Protectionism is very much a dead-end and is* really only useful when doing trade deals to force trading partners to give up protectionism too.
The EU is the world leader in free trade keeping standards and safety high while most tariffs very low and for much trade at zero - ( e.g. EBA, high 0% quotas ...)

* Farm and food protection is to a degree needed to ensure countries can feed themselves if need be.

Deleted User wrote: »

or the replacement of the EU with the US as the external influence over the UK.

The US can't - not by a million miles - replace the EU in UK trade or in many other fields. Gravity is an unavoidable fact of life in trade. The UK will be forced to seek a comprehensive trade agreement and agreements around many other needed mutual relations with the EU27. The UK will have little choice, but to seek such deals even faster after a 'No Deal' Brexit.

I don't think the UK will get much influence on anything, but the UK will in the real world simply have to comply rigorously with all EU standards, rules and regulations for the SM and much outside the SM too.

And I may well be overly positive towards the UK and its negotiation leverage.

Lars

MrMusician18 · 27-07-2019 11:39PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sunday Times saying UK govt going to go all out for No Deal with no negotiations until the EU drops the backstop.

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2/R-ofAjJIHtaB0unSz-ljNQ/https/storify.com/services/proxy/2/cCZW6SWMICBQ2xO2-Z6E7w/https/media.fyre.co/ZKNn62Tl6lE1ob4cBhig_stpp2807n001-01_1564258219_001.png

Prepare for a lot of nastiness coming Ireland's way. What we have seen so far is just the start.

There is no way they actually want to leave with No Deal. This is just a charade for the hard core Brexiter base.

It's not a charade for the Brexit base, quite the opposite actually. It's a charade to provoke a vote of no confidence in Johnson's government to trigger the election he feels he'll win. And the party he returns with after the election win be moulded in the right wing image of the radicalised grass roots party. The script is writing itself for him, EU/remainers are thwarting the will of the people and only he can deliver them to the promised land.

The first past the post system would make it very difficult to stop him, and impossible if remain/labour don't have an electoral pact, while Brexit party/cons do. He could well win a landslide on 40pc of the vote.

Lackadaisical · 27-07-2019 11:44PM

Deleted User wrote: »

In five years time (if it happens) Brexit will be seen as the first step in the reversal of corporate globalisation, or the replacement of the EU with the US as the external influence over the UK.

Quite the opposite. Globalization and a free wheeling, absolutely economically liberal agenda will have cleaved their UK out of the EU and exposed it to the very harsh realities of raw globalization for the first time ever really. It’s going to be a relatively small and highly debt loaded player in a very changed world. It’s not the 1850s or the 1950s and a lot of things have changed.

The EU is big enough and developed enough to have become a global rule maker that’s capable of setting the agenda. None of its members are capable of that on their own and I suspect that’s why Trump is so anti EU. 27 weak European US dependencies rather than an independently minded Europe capable of pushing forward with its own social democracy type ideologies - that would appeal to someone who wants to eliminate competition and have global hegemony. The UK is very likely to end up as a rule taker, being unable to do anything other than what the US, China or possibly even the EU tells it. It is going to have to accept whatever rules of trade are imposed by those big players and won’t have a seat at the table in Brussels to have influence on those agendas.

The EU has been one of the major forces trying to regulate global corporations - it has regularly lead the way with antitrust and competition law, consumer protection, environmental regulation, workers rights, human rights and so on.

It’s not perfect and it’s a work in progress and always will be, but it’s still a hell of a lot better than going it alone and being bounced around.

fly_agaric · 28-07-2019 12:07AM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The EU has been one of the major forces trying to regulate global corporations

Yes, the EU has been criticised for this by the US (pre Trump) at the behest of these corporations (who have captured the US political system).

It is currently under more direct attack from wealthy interests who fund eurosceptic movements and projects like "Brexit" for their own purposes.

Corporations and "plutocrats" are generally big fans of more (rather than less) corporate control over all our lives.

The EU obstructs them from applying their wealth & power to do what they want or it restricts their profits so they attack it.

BonnieSituation · 28-07-2019 12:20AM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Sammy Wilson speaking his mind again...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/dup-accuses-government-of-poor-little-ireland-act-on-brexit-1.3969709

That would be hilarious if it wasn't so serious. When loyalists become self aware it will be quite a day.

28-07-2019 12:54AM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The EU French has been one of the major forces trying to regulate global corporations -.

If it wasn't for the French, The US "multinationals" would be having free reign over where they place their European headquarter and choosing where they pay taxes, well, actually they have chosen to pay those lower taxes in Ireland.

The French have chosen to make them pay their share in France, something I agree with, one reason why I see the Brexit vote as being against globalisation.

It's one up on the globalist management in the UK that brings in cheap labour from anywhere to undermine the local workforce.

ancapailldorcha · 28-07-2019 01:17AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The French have chosen to make them pay their share in France, something I agree with, one reason why I see the Brexit vote as being against globalisation.

Yeah, I think it can be fairly argued that the Brexit vote was one against globalization.

However, the disaster capitalists, oligarchs, special interests (like US healthcare firms) and press barons will use Brexit to foist more globalization on the British public, not less.

Take the purported US-UK trade deal which is supposed to be all things to all people. Who do you think the Congressmen and Congresswomen in the US who will have to ratify the deal will listen to? Boris Johnson? Nigel Farage? Of course not. They will listen to their local lobbies. That's chicken producers, pork producers, local industries, pharma firms, insurance firms, financial services providers, etc. These groups will demand greater access to the British market on the same terms they enjoy with the US market.

Take pork, for example. The US is extremely like to insist that the UK sign up to Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS). US agricultural practices are appalling. For starters, 70% of antibiotics in the US are used as prophylactics on farm animals. The US also permits the use of Ractopamine, a phenol-based feed additive which is banned in 160 countries including China and Russia.

Brexit is a project designed to enrich a tiny few people at the expense of the many. The EU at least is supposed to seek international consensus to regulate globalization and endeavour to mitigate the unfairness that results from it by investing in poorer countries. All Brexit does is take the brakes off globalisation.

BonnieSituation · 28-07-2019 01:44AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

And the fact that No Deal isn't an outcome. It is a complete failure. The Tory party, and BP, are now running on the ticket of being unable to achieve something.

'Vote for me to ensure you get nothing done' is a new type of election slogan.

What is the plan after No Deal. FTA seems to be the goal but nobody seems to be asking the question why the EU would allow a crash out but then give in afterwards when the damage is done.

This is an absolutely wonderful post. It's just mind boggling.

28-07-2019 02:41AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Yeah, I think it can be fairly argued that the Brexit vote was one against globalization.

However, the disaster capitalists, oligarchs, special interests (like US healthcare firms) and press barons will use Brexit to foist more globalization on the British public, not less.

Take the purported US-UK trade deal which is supposed to be all things to all people. Who do you think the Congressmen and Congresswomen in the US who will have to ratify the deal will listen to? Boris Johnson? Nigel Farage? Of course not. They will listen to their local lobbies. That's chicken producers, pork producers, local industries, pharma firms, insurance firms, financial services providers, etc. These groups will demand greater access to the British market on the same terms they enjoy with the US market.

Take pork, for example. The US is extremely like to insist that the UK sign up to Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS). US agricultural practices are appalling. For starters, 70% of antibiotics in the US are used as prophylactics on farm animals. The US also permits the use of Ractopamine, a phenol-based feed additive which is banned in 160 countries including China and Russia.

Brexit is a project designed to enrich a tiny few people at the expense of the many. The EU at least is supposed to seek international consensus to regulate globalization and endeavour to mitigate the unfairness that results from it by investing in poorer countries. All Brexit does is take the brakes off globalisation.

Yes, what the voters who voted for Brexit wanted and what the politicians who will "deliver" Brexit will provide are two completely different outcomes.
The main point that I have repeatedly stated that the EU is not the main issue to the discontent within the general population of the UK, it is being screwed over by globalist multinational corporations and local business leaders (English) who exploit the free movement of workers to undercut the locals.

listermint · 28-07-2019 07:31AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, what the voters who voted for Brexit wanted and what the politicians who will "deliver" Brexit will provide are two completely different outcomes.
The main point that I have repeatedly stated that the EU is not the main issue to the discontent within the general population of the UK, it is being screwed over by globalist multinational corporations and local business leaders (English) who exploit the free movement of workers to undercut the locals.

For clarity sake and goal post moving. That is not what you said yesterday, when you made the initial point.

Leroy42 · 28-07-2019 08:02AM

Deleted User wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Yeah, I think it can be fairly argued that the Brexit vote was one against globalization.

However, the disaster capitalists, oligarchs, special interests (like US healthcare firms) and press barons will use Brexit to foist more globalization on the British public, not less.

Take the purported US-UK trade deal which is supposed to be all things to all people. Who do you think the Congressmen and Congresswomen in the US who will have to ratify the deal will listen to? Boris Johnson? Nigel Farage? Of course not. They will listen to their local lobbies. That's chicken producers, pork producers, local industries, pharma firms, insurance firms, financial services providers, etc. These groups will demand greater access to the British market on the same terms they enjoy with the US market.

Take pork, for example. The US is extremely like to insist that the UK sign up to Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS). US agricultural practices are appalling. For starters, 70% of antibiotics in the US are used as prophylactics on farm animals. The US also permits the use of Ractopamine, a phenol-based feed additive which is banned in 160 countries including China and Russia.

Brexit is a project designed to enrich a tiny few people at the expense of the many. The EU at least is supposed to seek international consensus to regulate globalization and endeavour to mitigate the unfairness that results from it by investing in poorer countries. All Brexit does is take the brakes off globalisation.

Yes, what the voters who voted for Brexit wanted and what the politicians who will "deliver" Brexit will provide are two completely different outcomes.
The main point that I have repeatedly stated that the EU is not the main issue to the discontent within the general population of the UK, it is being screwed over by globalist multinational corporations and local business leaders (English) who exploit the free movement of workers to undercut the locals.

What evidence is there that FoM undercuts locals? Have the car plants, for example, buses in thousands or foreigners on lower rates?

ancapailldorcha · 28-07-2019 08:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, what the voters who voted for Brexit wanted and what the politicians who will "deliver" Brexit will provide are two completely different outcomes.
The main point that I have repeatedly stated that the EU is not the main issue to the discontent within the general population of the UK, it is being screwed over by globalist multinational corporations and local business leaders (English) who exploit the free movement of workers to undercut the locals.

You were saying that Brexit could reverse globalization yesterday.

The UK isn't being screwed over by multinational corporations. It is being screwed over by years of failed austerity which was imposed for purely ideological reasons. I'd like to see an academic study to prove this assertion of local workers being undercut.

Big corporations are becoming less and less labour intensive. Facebook in 2018 only employed just over 35,000 workers for example (Source). Wages are set by the market with a minimum wage at the floor. People on zero-hours contracts would be better off asking why companies like Amazon are allowed to effectively not pay tax and why George Osborne vetoed an EU attempt to cap bankers bonuses, not vote to leave because the EU was looking at finally clamping down on tax avoidance.

Joe_ Public · 28-07-2019 09:10AM

Sophie Ridge trying hard to push Jeremy Corbyn to say he's a remainer, but it's fairly clear he's never going to say it, however much people want him to.

Silent Running · 28-07-2019 09:24AM

I think it would be a huge spike in Boris' plans if Corbyn stepped down. A new Labour leader - any new Labour leader - would make Labour more electable. If Corbyn were to step down now and, say, Starmer were to take over. It would give Labour a bit more time to set out their remain position to the electorate, and form a remain alliance. If Boris thinks he can get a majority over the Corbyn led Labour in a general election, he might have to think again if a Labour led remain alliance emerged as a viable alternative.

At this point, Corbyn is probably doing just as much to sabotage the UK as the ERG . If he knows this he is complicit. If he doesn't know this he is too stupid to hold his position.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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