Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

robinph · 24-07-2019 08:30PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

robinph wrote: »

But if Parliament demands and extension an Boris won't request it, then parliament can trigger an election just the same.

Even if that all happens on 31st October such that there isn't time for the letter requesting the extension to make it to Brussels I can't see the EU not being sympathetic towards parliament and allowing the extension despite the exact correct things being done in the exact right order.

But who does anyone approach. Only the PM can request an extension and the EU accepts it Or the EU requests an extension and the PM would except it.

Even if there is an Election called. Won’t Boris be PM until he is either re-elected or replaced.

There will be some arcane process where the PM would get arrested by the seargent at arms and locked in the parliamentary prison, then next in line gets the chance to deliver the notice to the EU etc.

There was some article about the process and the prison for going against the will of Parliament back in the shenanigans in March, but it was never needed.

Sam Russell · 24-07-2019 08:32PM

Of course it could all go horribly wrong for thr Boris gang.

As follows:

1: Vote on No Confidence called. (in Sept). Vote lost.

2: Attempt made to form a new Gov, with renegade Remain Tories, SNP, Lib Dems, and renegrade Remain Labour MPs. If they can agree with who should be PM, form a cabinet, and plan to stop No Deal Brexit and/or to hold second referendum with a view to revoke. If successful, the Boris and the Tories are toast.

3: GE follows before Brexit, and Gov seeks a delay, or not. Everything is then up in the air.

Bizarre.

brickster69 · 24-07-2019 08:33PM

Rees Mogg - Leader of the house

Capt'n Midnight · 24-07-2019 08:33PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Raab as foreign secretary is just so depressing. I had hoped we had had heard the last of him when he lost the leadership bid.

For most of those making noises about the leadership bid it was about getting into the cabinet.

Boris Johnson
Michael Gove
Andrea Leadsom
Dominic Raab
Jeremy Hunt
Rory Stewart
Sajid Javid
James Cleverly
Matthew Hancock
Esther McVey
Mark Harper
Sam Gyimah
Kit Malthouse

J Mysterio · 24-07-2019 08:35PM

Williamson is Education Secretary. Man who leaked top secret info while Defence Sec.

Who will be NI Secretary?

Capt'n Midnight · 24-07-2019 08:35PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Rees Mogg - Leader of the house

So plenty of airtime and can't be held accountable for policies

24-07-2019 08:35PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

From memory the Labour Party membership backed him big time the last time out. I think it was a lot of young members who for whatever reason see him as a potential future prime minister.

It would be interesting to see how many are still active members of the party, or did they join to elect a no hoper to scupper any future labour government hopes?

FrancieBrady · 24-07-2019 08:37PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Williamson is Education Secretary. Man who leaked top secret info while Defence Sec.

Who will be NI Secretary?

Julian Smith was mentioned earlier in Boards.ie dispatches.

J Mysterio · 24-07-2019 08:37PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So plenty of airtime and can't be held accountable for policies

He will love it so much. The pomp and ceremony, the archaic traditions. He can grandstand and sneer all the finer.

robinph · 24-07-2019 08:40PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

2: Attempt made to form a new Gov, with renegade Remain Tories, SNP, Lib Dems, and renegrade Remain Labour MPs. If they can agree with who should be PM, form a cabinet, and plan to stop No Deal Brexit and/or to hold second referendum with a view to revoke. If successful, the Boris and the Tories are toast.

The only possible way the numbers are there for that is if it were a totally single issue grouping and no attempt to do anything government like other that revkoke/ call 2nd referendum and immediately dissolve parliament.

It would require the entire rest of parliament plus the handful of Conservative rebels to happen, and they are not going to team up with Corbyn for anything other than that one issue and even then they will only do it whilst holding their noses and looking the other way.

Sam Russell · 24-07-2019 08:45PM

robinph wrote: »

The only possible way the numbers are there for that is if it were a totally single issue grouping and no attempt to do anything government like other that revkoke/ call 2nd referendum and immediately dissolve parliament.

It would require the entire rest of parliament plus the handful of Conservative rebels to happen, and they are not going to team up with Corbyn for anything other than that one issue and even then they will only do it whilst holding their noses and looking the other way.

I would not see Corbyn as part of it. I think it would have to be a Tory - perhaps Dominic Grieve or Ken Clarke. Otherwise the rebel Tories would have nothing to do with it.

It would be a single issue all right, but you never know, they might get along famously and decide to see out this Parliament - like a coalition Gov, as seen all over Europe.

For Forks Sake · 24-07-2019 08:47PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Been said many times Brexit can’t get more bizarre and it always does somehow.

We are now into a fatally comedic ridiculous cabinet.

The only upshot is when it all goes south it’ll be on the laps of each one of the absolutely unfit for office clowns Johnson has appointed and his own.

You don't seriously think these people are going to take responsibility for their own ineptitude do you? Every available scapegoat, and a few previously unheard of ones, will be wheeled out to be used as an excuse.

J Mysterio · 24-07-2019 08:52PM

It will have to be as follows:

1. Boris sets hardline, right wing government and expects to fail in negotiations with EU when they 'refuse to negotiate' despite his 'mandate'.

2. With the departures from Government, Boris has further widened the division in the Tories and there may even be resignations from the party.

3. He can't command a majority, there will have to be an election. Boris Brexit line will be clear and simple, Corbyn is struggling to define his. Boris thinks he is a good campaigner and will win against Corbyn in a GE and have a fresh majority.

Stop moaning ffs · 24-07-2019 08:54PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

You don't seriously think these people are going to take responsibility for their own ineptitude do you? Every available scapegoat, and a few previously unheard of ones, will be wheeled out to be used as an excuse.

Oh I know. It won’t wash with the public though. Not now.
Boris said leave 31st no matter what. When it’s apparent to all he’ll have to ask for an extension. It’ll roll downhill as sh!t has a habit of doing.
They’re all screwed this new cabinet to the last one. And it’s delightful

54and56 · 24-07-2019 08:57PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

You don't seriously think these people are going to take responsibility for their own ineptitude do you? Every available scapegoat, and a few previously unheard of ones, will be wheeled out to be used as an excuse.

You're ignoring the Brexit party who will massively dilute the Tory vote.

Joe_ Public · 24-07-2019 09:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be interesting to see how many are still active members of the party, or did they join to elect a no hoper to scupper any future labour government hopes?

I read over past couple of days that there has been a slight drop off in Labour membership figures, but nothing particularly severe. Corbyn was elected leader largely because there was a yearning for a figure from the left wing of the party to address the slide to the right that had been in train since the early years of blairism. Its kind of cyclical how it goes i guess. I think the tragedy for Labour is that somebody like Corbyn is the only real chance they have of properly addressing the issues of inequality they care most about and in ditching him, as they will inevitably do, they will fall back on one of those middle ground triangulators who will immediately abandon the traditional Labour working class voters as Blair did back in the day.

Stop moaning ffs · 24-07-2019 09:04PM

Has anyone from the DUP ever been given a cabinet position?

That today would be the only way this could get crazier

Professor Moriarty · 24-07-2019 09:06PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Has anyone from the DUP ever been given a cabinet position?

That today would be the only way this could get crazier

Sammy Wilson - Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. You heard it here first.

Berserker · 24-07-2019 09:08PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

3. He can't command a majority, there will have to be an election. Boris Brexit line will be clear and simple, Corbyn is struggling to define his. Boris thinks he is a good campaigner and will win against Corbyn in a GE and have a fresh majority.

If Labour can get a leader with a clear Brexit strategy, that'd be a game changer. Boris is a good campaigner to be fair. Far better than Corbyn or May.

54&56 wrote: »

You're ignoring the Brexit party who will massively dilute the Tory vote.

Not if Boris is going to the electorate with a strong pro-Brexit line. He'll bring back the Tory voters that the Brexit party have won.

A Shropshire Lad · 24-07-2019 09:09PM

If you dont know how good Liz Truss is , have a look at this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXL7dzlEUYQ

Stop moaning ffs · 24-07-2019 09:11PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sammy Wilson - Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. You heard it here first.

You almost gave me a heart attack.

BobbyBobberson · 24-07-2019 09:11PM

Does this feel anyway definitive to anyone? It does to me. Definitively towards a ****show but nevertheless definitive.

Joe_ Public · 24-07-2019 09:14PM

Berserker wrote: »

If Labour can get a leader with a clear Brexit strategy, that'd be a game changer. Boris is a good campaigner to be fair. Far better than Corbyn or May.

Believe me, i am fully cognizant of Corbyns flaws - and they are many - but i would have to take some issue with these statements. Corbyn may indeed be a brexiteer himself, at least of the soft variety, but i dont know how clearer the partys brexit policy could be. Labour has voted against the governments brexit policy every step of the way, twice whipped its MPs to vote in favour of a second referendum. Its current policy is to insist on a referendum to whatever deal the government agrees and then to campaign to remain, it seems very clear to me anyway.

Corbyn does not impress at the dispatch box, but he has at least proved himself to be a good campaigner at the 2017 election. Has to prove it was more than a one-off to be fair.

J Mysterio · 24-07-2019 09:16PM

As the DUP are a separate party to the Conservatives, assuming they cannot have cabinet positions in their government. Could be that a confidence and supply arrangement might change that - not sure - but would assume not.

Arlene and DUP want promises and money. If there is to be a GE, they will be irrelevant again and will have lost their leverage, and wasted any leverage NI as a whole once held.

Terrible to hear 'never mind the backstop, the buck stops here'. If there is to be a Brexit, the backstop would have been the best thing to ever happen to NI, as it's currently constituted.

Berserker · 24-07-2019 09:18PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sammy Wilson - Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. You heard it here first.

I'd be happy with that. The man has spent his life working hard to the people of NI. You could do an awful lot worse.

gooch2k9 · 24-07-2019 09:18PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

As the DUP are a separate party to the Conservatives, assuming they cannot have cabinet positions in their government. Could be that a confidence and supply arrangement might change that - not sure - but would assume not.

Arlene and DUP want promises and money. If there is to be a GE, they will be irrelevant again and will have lost their leverage, and wasted any leverage NI as a whole once held.

Terrible to hear 'never mind the backstop, the buck stops here'. If there is to be a Brexit, the backstop would have been the best thing to ever happen to NI, as it's currently constituted.

I believe for them to have cabinet positions it would make it a coalition as opposed to C&S, as they would be an actual part of the government then. Now they only support it.

J Mysterio · 24-07-2019 09:18PM

gooch2k9 wrote: »

I believe for them to have cabinet positions it would make it a coalition as opposed to C&S, as they would be an actual part of the government then. Now they only support it.

My thinking also.

FrancieBrady · 24-07-2019 09:18PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sammy Wilson - Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. You heard it here first.

He thinks he runs the place as it is...no biggie to pay him for thinking it I suppose.

Water John · 24-07-2019 09:20PM

The worst of it all is Dominic Cummings, a man held in contempt of Parliament, and his team, is running No 10.

robinph · 24-07-2019 09:21PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its current policy is to insist on a referendum to whatever deal the government agrees and then to campaign to remain, it seems very clear to me anyway.

You forgot the next line of their policy which is in the event of Labour getting into power then to go for a Labour version of Brexit instead.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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