Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk · 24-07-2019 09:33AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Wow - Dominic Cummings tipped to be senior advisor or chief of staff today. Sam Coates and Laura K both have it on twitter.

Nothing to see here, just one of the key people of Vote Leave who broke electoral law and who's investigation by police was seemingly slow tracked due to "political sensitivities" getting a high profile job. I guess it is true that crime pays.

Leroy42 · 24-07-2019 09:35AM

I can see the WA agreement, with amended PD, voted through. With TM, she was not trusted and a terrible leader. Few, if any, even within the Tory party supported her.

It was risk free to vote it down. Worst case, or best case depending, was TM would go.

But now they have Johnson. If he fails Brexit really is dead. So the likes of the ERG have a risk. Do they believe that he will allow a crash out, or play for time with a possible 2nd ref or GE.

So I can see plenty opting for the WA, with the line that it is only temporary until the technology is in place and US trade deal is signed.

Professor Moriarty · 24-07-2019 09:51AM

Enzokk wrote: »

Nothing to see here, just one of the key people of Vote Leave who broke electoral law and who's investigation by police was seemingly slow tracked due to "political sensitivities" getting a high profile job. I guess it is true that crime pays.

Let's see how many One Nation Tories put principle before party in the face of Boris's dodgy chums taking over government.

Enzokk · 24-07-2019 09:54AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I can see the WA agreement, with amended PD, voted through. With TM, she was not trusted and a terrible leader. Few, if any, even within the Tory party supported her.

It was risk free to vote it down. Worst case, or best case depending, was TM would go.

But now they have Johnson. If he fails Brexit really is dead. So the likes of the ERG have a risk. Do they believe that he will allow a crash out, or play for time with a possible 2nd ref or GE.

So I can see plenty opting for the WA, with the line that it is only temporary until the technology is in place and US trade deal is signed.

But how? Johnson has said of the deal that you say he will now get through, it will make the UK a vassal state of the EU. The backstop that many profess to be against is still there and will not be changed and the PD is nothing more than words as it means nothing. If/when he loses a no-confidence vote or calls a GE after getting the deal through and loses the subsequent election it will mean nothing as the new incoming PM will have other ideas about the future relationship.

He has tied himself in all directions. He is against the deal, is for no-deal, said he wouldn't call a GE. Any way he goes he is breaking a promise, either by taking the deal or by calling an election or he will have his time cut short if he goes for no-deal. He has nowhere to go.

Leroy42 · 24-07-2019 09:57AM

Interesting interviews on Newstalk this morning. Both MPs he interviewed were asked what the plan was. Neither of them had a clue.

The presenter rightly pointed out that Johnson has had 3 years to make a plan and the Tories have not just voted for someone whom they have no idea what he is planning to do or how he plans to do it.

BobbyBobberson · 24-07-2019 09:57AM

Cummings is going to be seriously interesting (for want of a better word). He was Goves spad when he become the most hated education secretary ever and has said this about the ERG

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1153950256041811968

Stop moaning ffs · 24-07-2019 09:59AM

Lets not forget Corbyn has said he’s going to call a motion of no confidence. But didn’t say when. Will the numbers be there to support the given they all seem to loathe Corbyn? Or will it be a case of which the loathe more, him or Johnson

Enzokk · 24-07-2019 10:00AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Let's see how many One Nation Tories put principle before party in the face of Boris's dodgy chums taking over government.

Looking at the way politicians in the US has given up their own moral code to support Trump, I think a lot of "good people" in the Conservative Party will be doing nothing. The Party will win for most politicians unfortunately. That is why I cannot understand the criticism of the likes of Soubry or Swinson and their voring records. People understand they are part of a party, if Labour had such control of their own party they would have run May out of No.10 a long time ago, instead you have a leader who defied the whip many times and as such now others will follow suit. I give credit to Soubry for quitting the Tories because she didn't agree with the party on Brexit. That takes some courage, more than most people will ever have.

I know this isn't going to happen, but what would you give to have those 7 SF MPs rock up to Westminster to take their seats? (Just imagining and thinking how even more screwed up this whole situation could get)

Professor Moriarty · 24-07-2019 10:01AM

Patser wrote: »

Bingo, that's exactly who he looks like. Head pulled in to neck, poor salute, all that's missing is the tongue sticking out.

Boris is a caricature of a politician, a made up eccentric cartoon character, who has never had any clear vision and instead runs to the front of whatever way the crowd is looking. For all his political career he has little to point back at and say I done that - instead it's just photo ops or video clips of him being goofy. And somehow he's magically forgiven for the mess ups that happened while he held responsibility - the waste on the London garden bridge for example.

And here he is, suddenly leading his nation, on promises of day dreams and hope while an absolute, intricate, detail laden deal needs to be done.

You could be describing Trump there. Except for the womanising. No, scrap that. Except for the racist remarks. No, scrap that. Except for the privileged and elitist background. No, scrap that. Hmmm. So hard.

Professor Moriarty · 24-07-2019 10:05AM

Enzokk wrote: »

Looking at the way politicians in the US has given up their own moral code to support Trump, I think a lot of "good people" in the Conservative Party will be doing nothing. The Party will win for most politicians unfortunately. That is why I cannot understand the criticism of the likes of Soubry or Swinson and their voring records. People understand they are part of a party, if Labour had such control of their own party they would have run May out of No.10 a long time ago, instead you have a leader you defied the whip many times and as such now others will follow suit. I give credit to Soubry for quitting the Tories because she didn't agree with the party on Brexit. That takes some courage, more than most people will ever have.

I know this isn't going to happen, but what would you give to have those 7 SF MPs rock up to Westminster to take their seats? (Just imagining and thinking how even more screwed up this whole situation could get)

Yes, when it came down to the wire, Soubry had the character to do the right thing as she saw it. I have hope that other One Nation Tories will follow suit and have just been staying inside the tent to try to influence from within. There is no way SF will take their seats for a variety of reasons. Would be a laugh though.

ArmaniJeanss · 24-07-2019 10:14AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Cummings is going to be seriously interesting (for want of a better word). He was Goves spad when he become the most hated education secretary ever and has said this about the ERG

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1153950256041811968

A fuller quote. I can only read it in a Benedict Cumberbatch voice though.

Dom Cummings wrote:

Those of you in the narcissist-delusional subset of the ERG who have spent the last three years scrambling for the 8.10 Today slot while spouting gibberish about trade and the law across SW1 – i.e exactly the contemptible behaviour that led to your enforced marginalisation during the referendum and your attempt to destroy Vote Leave – you are also in the pirate category.

You were useful idiots for remain during the campaign and with every piece of bull**** from Bill Cash et al you have helped only Remain for three years.

Remember how you WELCOMED the backstop as a ‘triumph’ in December 2017 when it was obvious to everybody who knew what was going on – NOT the cabinet obviously – that this effectively ended the ‘negotiations’?

Remember how Bernard Jenkin wrote on ConHome that he didn’t have to ‘ruin his weekend’ reading the document to know it was another success for the natural party of government — bringing to mind very clearly how during the referendum so many of you guys were too busy shooting or skiing or chasing girls to do any actual work. You should be treated like a metastasising tumour and excised from the UK body politic.

BobbyBobberson · 24-07-2019 10:19AM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

A fuller quote. I can only read it in a Benedict Cumberbatch voice though.

Hahaha, me too. Plenty of suggestions now that Johnson is choosing his staff based on elections rather than negotiations. Interesting/mental/bat**** times.

Tell me how · 24-07-2019 10:48AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Lets not forget Corbyn has said he’s going to call a motion of no confidence. But didn’t say when. Will the numbers be there to support the given they all seem to loathe Corbyn? Or will it be a case of which the loathe more, him or Johnson

Isn't this just so typical Corbyn once again. Like the No Confidence dilly-dallying with May at the start of the year.

Either say nothing, or call the motion!!!

Patser · 24-07-2019 10:54AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You could be describing Trump there. Except for the womanising. No, scrap that. Except for the racist remarks. No, scrap that. Except for the privileged and elitist background. No, scrap that. Hmmm. So hard.

There is 1 big difference with Trump though. Trump was not a politician, he was unashamedly a reality TV star and a business man, who you knew exactly what you were getting. Whatever about his scatter ball approach, politically he had a clean slate.

Boris has held ministerial positions and was Mayor of London, there should be some sort of legacy or plan you could look at, but its surprisingly empty. Politically theres very little there, because politically he was never really taken seriously. But now he's in charge, and still without really having any clear plan, while massive gaffes like the Kippers are overlooked

Stop moaning ffs · 24-07-2019 10:59AM

Tell me how wrote: »

Isn't this just so typical Corbyn once again. Like the No Confidence dilly-dallying with May at the start of the year.

Either say nothing, or call the motion!!!

Barry gardener saying the no confidence motion will come before the conference season.
That’s when parliament returns right? Or just before?

Larbre34 · 24-07-2019 11:24AM

I think its fair to say the Johnson era will be short and will consist of a bunch of toy robots marching aimlessly about until they knock each other over and their duracells run out.

Johnson can appoint who he likes, but really there isn't a move he can make with the majority he has that will reconcile his party factions, the Parliament, the People, Industry, the UK nations or a future relationship with the EU meeting the needs of both. This will end with an election and /or a referendum, nothing less.

Prepare for at least 6 more months of high blood pressures and grinding teeth across the water.

Tell me how · 24-07-2019 11:50AM

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think its fair to say the Johnson era will be short and will consist of a bunch of toy robots marching aimlessly about until they knock each other over and their duracells run out.

Johnson can appoint who he likes, but really there isn't a move he can make with the majority he has that will reconcile his party factions, the Parliament, the People, Industry, the UK nations or a future relationship with the EU meeting the needs of both. This will end with an election and /or a referendum, nothing less.

Prepare for at least 6 more months of high blood pressures and grinding teeth across the water.

I have found the whole thing fascinating. To have lived through this period and being able to observe the dynamics of what actually goes on in politics through such a momentous event is very interesting. We've heard of historical events in the past but reading them summarised in to 500 words is the difference between reading a match report and being at the game.

Of course, I can do so because I am unlikely to be immediately affected by Brexit in the way that many could be and my interest in observing it is not discounting how serious the impact could be for them (and for Ireland, north and south in a no deal scenario) but in an sociological analytical type of way, it's like a real life Game of Thrones with scarcely less drama.

24-07-2019 11:57AM

Tell me how wrote: »

I have found the whole thing fascinating. To have lived through this period and being able to observe the dynamics of what actually goes on in politics through such a momentous event is very interesting. We've heard of historical events in the past but reading them summarised in to 500 words is the difference between reading a match report and being at the game.

Of course, I can do so because I am unlikely to be immediately affected by Brexit in the way that many could be and my interest in observing it is not discounting how serious the impact could be for them (and for Ireland, north and south in a no deal scenario) but in an sociological analytical type of way, it's like a real life Game of Thrones with scarcely less drama.

Bit off topic but I've been watching a lot of videos on YouTube from this channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC22BdTgxefuvUivrjesETjg

The reason your post reminded me of it is that when we think of history we (or I, certainly) think through the prism of what we already know, some half-remembered stuff from school or simplified one side against another from a TV documentary at 2am. That channel while simple and glib at times does a decent job of conveying the disparate aims, qualities and abilities through different factions through an event.

Similar to now, we're seeing it play out and it's all just so stupid. It isn't all brilliant people who get everyone on-side. It isn't all tactical masterclasses. History is just lurching between events while the majority of people try to get on with their lives.

Laois_Man · 24-07-2019 12:50PM

It may have taken 'til her last day to do it, but Teresa May has finally said something good in the HoC....to Jeremy Corbyn....as a leader who recognized when it was her time to go, perhaps it's time for you to do the same"

O'Neill · 24-07-2019 01:01PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

It may have taken 'til her last day to do it, but Teresa May has finally said something good in the HoC....to Jeremy Corbyn....as a leader who recognized when it was her time to go, perhaps it's time for you to do the same"

That wasn’t good at all! It was a bizarre comment to make considering he hasn’t been in power

BorneTobyWilde · 24-07-2019 01:07PM

Bad form form front bench Labour not to applaud her , sat there like a bunch of spoilt kids, at least the back bencher's did.

VinLieger · 24-07-2019 01:09PM

O'Neill wrote: »

That wasn’t good at all! It was a bizarre comment to make considering he hasn’t been in power

Whoosh.

Hes been an awful opposition leader against what could be considered quite possibly the worst UK government for nearly a century and he has let them away with all of it. With any other leader Labour could so easily be topping the polls and the tories would have had to have a GE or 2nd ref over a year ago but no he still manages to be lower in the polls than this tory government who have utterly failed at everything they set out to do.

Leroy42 · 24-07-2019 01:11PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Bad form form front bench Labour not to applaud her , sat there like a bunch of spoilt kids, at least the back bencher's did.

Really? Her own party tore her to shreds, JRM, IDS, Johnson himself. JRM led a no confidence vote against her and when he lost he claimed she had to resign anyway.

TM deserves no praise, no applause. She lied, uturned and tried every trick in the book to try to stay in power. It is telling that the best people can say about her is praising her sense of public duty. Damning with faint praise.

seamus · 24-07-2019 01:13PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Bad form form front bench Labour not to applaud her , sat there like a bunch of spoilt kids, at least the back bencher's did.

Meh. Too much is made of adhering to pointless pomp and tradition. It's half of the reason the UK is in this mess.

I don't see why anyone should be obliged by convention to applaud someone that they don't respect.

BobbyBobberson · 24-07-2019 01:18PM

She has been a woeful PM and I am surprised anyone stood for her aside perhaps from letting her pass them on the way out.

Her record voting as been poor and gay bashing, while the one task she had she made ridiculously hard for herself. Cowing to the ERG she set ridiculously tough red lines which made Olly Robbins job incredibly hard. Her red lines made the whole thing so much more difficult and she only has herself to blame.

Chuck in the decision to hold a GE which meant she relied on the DUP to remain government again was a mistake. NI could be part of the EU and UK now and would absolutely thrive, the UK would be on the way to brexit but instead we are where we are. Tories members themselves would happily get rid of NI totally for brexit never mind have it in a separate customs union. Let her off up walking the hills where she made that daft decision.

listermint · 24-07-2019 01:20PM

'The Great Hack' out on netflix today.

One for my watch list later

ancapailldorcha · 24-07-2019 01:21PM

listermint wrote: »

'The Great Hack' out on netflix today.

One for my watch list later

Arron Banks has apparently threatened to sue Netflix over it which alone is reason enough to justify watching it IMO.

Tell me how · 24-07-2019 01:22PM

Adam Boulton tweeting that Mrs May must have loved being patronised by JRM while Adam is on duty outside Downing St and Sky posting the tweet on screen while May's final questions are continuing is where the media is at at this point.

Everyone recognizes the platform strength which Twitter brings in it's immediacy to commenting on matters. Sky or Adam didn't even wait to make his comment on JRM for when he was going to be on camera in just a few minutes.

Professor Moriarty · 24-07-2019 01:23PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

She has been a woeful PM and I am surprised anyone stood for her aside perhaps from letting her pass them on the way out.

Her record voting as been poor and gay bashing, while the one task she had she made ridiculously hard for herself. Cowing to the ERG she set ridiculously tough red lines which made Olly Robbins job incredibly hard. Her red lines made the whole thing so much more difficult and she only has herself to blame.

Chuck in the decision to hold a GE which meant she relied on the DUP to remain government again was a mistake. NI could be part of the EU and UK now and would absolutely thrive, the UK would be on the way to brexit but instead we are where we are. Tories members themselves would happily get rid of NI totally for brexit never mind have it in a separate customs union. Let her off up walking the hills where she made that daft decision.

I wonder who the next Brexit minister will be now that Raab seems to be heading foreign. Smart money is on Mark Francois.

Stop moaning ffs · 24-07-2019 01:27PM

Please let it be Francois. Only way this could become more farcical

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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