WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:16AM

Baggly wrote: »

Like do ye want me to post my reffing schedule. It's probably too meta. It's legit tho.

Ha! Oh, not me. So used to it being against me that I assumed

Yeah, I'm not bothered by you being afk for times. Most of us have lives.

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:17AM

Baggly wrote: »

Like do ye want me to post my reffing schedule. It's probably too meta. It's legit tho.

You're fierce tetchy! Fierce!

All I am saying there is - no posts cause he was away, vs....oh look he didn't post cause he was a wolf and throwing shade. This reaation is fierce tetchy!

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:17AM

Baggly wrote: »

So you come out the gates posting about how I could be a wolf, but you think I'm probably not, and somehow that's not tunnelling. Go away out of that qb

It's really not.

I still think it's most likely Whippy and Duffman.

I'm just considering other possibilities.

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:18AM

Clarabel wrote: »

I'd rather mislynch on duff or K than you, if I am honest. I've stonger feelings that you are wolf.

Why?

This is interesting.

I've said that if Whippy is a wolf then you are not (post 1154 - when we were discussing the CFD you'd not have suggested Whippy then).

So, why Duff more than Whip?

duffman13 · 05-07-2019 10:20AM

Clarabel wrote: »

fiirst, as in leave you standing and mislynch on someone else

Can you clarify what you mean here? Sounds like you feel whippy is more wolfy but would rather mislynch me or Kolido first?

My thoughts on it are simple, lynch Whippy, if she's wolf then lynch me to get this "connection" off the table. However it's then LYLO, I'm not a wolf and lynching me comes back green but I'm thinking whippy is possibly a wolf.

Caveat to the above is whippy could say the exact same about me.

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:21AM

Gonna do wagonomics again. First time doing it I made some assumptions that might not be correct, eg: just one wolf on Strawbs, one wolf on Tusk and one outlier. If the assumptions are wrong then the result will likely be wrong, so will see what we get instead.

duffman13 · 05-07-2019 10:21AM

Clarabel wrote: »

QB and Baggly had an argument that day too. I recall saying that I felt it made Baggly look more wolf.

Can you go back and read the argument with QB and see if you feel that it is more or less contrived?
At the time I didn't feel either of them were contrived, so I'll go back and read both of them now knowing GnR is a wolf.
I don't think both QB and Baggly are wolf but I have been suss of Bags since the start and I am always suss of QB

Gonna read it now and see where I sit on that one

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:22AM

quickbeam wrote: »

Why?

This is interesting.

I've said that if Whippy is a wolf then you are not (post 1154 - when we were discussing the CFD you'd not have suggested Whippy then).

So, why Duff more than Whip?

NO NO, I definetly think that Whips is a wolf! Right now.

However you posted last night about warming up to her and also she seems to be pleading her case this morning. If what she is saying is true - that we should mislynch her to get rid of the discussion, then I would we waste the mislynch on K or Duff.

I;ve two things to do.
1. read the arguments Bags had yesterday
2. Vote analysis with new info

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:23AM

sKeith wrote: »

The day 3 has ended.

Green&Red : quickbeam, Baggly, Whiplashy, kitten_k, Clarabel, sullivlo, duffman13, Kolido

Green&Red has been lynched, they were a wolf.

Night 3 has begun.

Day 4 will begin as soon as the munch is finalized and will end either at 10pm tomorrow or when a majority lynch has been reached.

Cease posting until the munch post.

Just PMed our fabulous game mod to ask him if/who GnR voted for. Probably irrelevant, but you never know. And I like having all info.

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:23AM

duffman13 wrote: »

Can you clarify what you mean here? Sounds like you feel whippy is more wolfy but would rather mislynch me or Kolido first?

My thoughts on it are simple, lynch Whippy, if she's wolf then lynch me to get this "connection" off the table. However it's then LYLO, I'm not a wolf and lynching me comes back green but I'm thinking whippy is possibly a wolf.

Caveat to the above is whippy could say the exact same about me.

We only have 1 mislynch to LYLO

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:24AM

Clarabel wrote: »

NO NO, I definetly think that Whips is a wolf! Right now.

However you posted last night about warming up to her and also she seems to be pleading her case this morning. If what she is saying is true - that we should mislynch her to get rid of the discussion, then I would we waste the mislynch on K or Duff.

I;ve two things to do.
1. read the arguments Bags had yesterday
2. Vote analysis with new info

Find a wolf catch a wolf. Yes, we've one mislynch available to us, but if we lynch wolf-Whippy we still have the mislynch later to use.

duffman13 · 05-07-2019 10:27AM

Clarabel wrote: »

We only have 1 mislynch to LYLO

I know, I'm pointing out that if whippy comes back wolf, a few people seem to think we are linked and I'll be lynched.

If I'm lynched it's LYLO is basically my point. If I'm wrong and whippy is village, it's LYLO aswell. We really need to get this lynch right cause I feel like we'll get the next one wrong regardless

Whiplashy · 05-07-2019 10:27AM

Guys I really think you should just lynch me and get on with finding the furballs. If you lynch someone else we’re just going to be right back here for next lynch.

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:27AM

quickbeam wrote: »

Find a wolf catch a wolf. Yes, we've one mislynch available to us, but if we lynch wolf-Whippy we still have the mislynch later to use.

If she's not - we are ****ed.

We've work to do.

Options:
1. Whip/Duff - QB led
2. Whip / (Duff or K or Kitten) - Clara led
3. Bags or QB as a wolf - QB/Clara led, Duff on this - started by wolf GnR
4. Kitten or Clara - Whips led

Are there any other combinations / leads

duffman13 · 05-07-2019 10:30AM

Baggly, who's your thoughts for two wolves?

Kolido · 05-07-2019 10:47AM

I havent been around much but here is what Ive gathered.

Town lean,
Clara - some dodgy posts but cant see anything in it.
Whippy - cleared by a fake seer early on, trit was vil so maybe some merrit in it.
Baggly - if he can post a pic of him in his reffing gear with todays paper, that would be super. Joking aside, he has tried to slip people up, looks more like a vil play to me.
Kitten - nothing cries town about her, maybe hasnt been around as much like myself
Duffers - Another low poster I believe like me, either me or him could be a low lying wolf, I know Im not.
Qb - sulli and qb tried cfd, sulli was good. Still on my list since d0.
Wolf lean

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:48AM

Wagonomics with different assumptions (and, it also really bothered my OCD that the first set were provided in table format and the second set not, so I've edited so they're in the same format, that's just my idiosyncrasy!)

sKeith wrote: »

Strawberry Milkshake : tritium, sullivlo, Clarabel, tusk, Green&Red
tusk : kitten_k, baggly, duffman13
kitten_k : Strawberry Milkshake, Whiplashy
quickbeam : kolido
Clarabel : Ectoplasm
Baggly : quickbeam

sKeith wrote: »

tusk : Baggly, duffman13, Clarabel
Baggly : Green&Red, Kolido
Clarabel : Whiplashy, kitten_k
kitten_k : tusk, sullivlo
Green&Red : Ectoplasm
Kolido : quickbeam

Okay, so two villagers in the top 2 on the first lynch. Wolves could have had one vote in each, but didn't necessarily so. So any of Clara, Kitten, Bags or Duff could be a wolf. Would they have had one in the outliers too? Kitten voters weren't wholly outliers, as there were two on them. The only literal outliers was Kolido on me and me on Bags. I know I'm good, but as I haven't really made any assumptions yet, I haven't really narrowed anyone down, so let's just assume that like me, Kolido isn't a wolf.

So, the second lynch, any of the top four could potentially have been lynched with 2-3 votes on each, it wouldn't have taken much for one of them to be voted off. Though we now know the status of only one of those four leaving the others as unknowns.

Another strong indication here that Kolido isn't a wolf though as he voted the same as GnR. Unless ... he Clara or Kitten were team-mates and both thought they were in danger. This would absolutely rule Baggly out as wolf in that scenario.

If Kolido isn't a wolf, would GnR vote for fellow wolf Baggly when it was fairly tight? Last time I said he probably wouldn't and I find it hard to say any different this time. Unless ... they underestimated the danger that was on him?

Two confirmed villagers on Kitten, and two unknowns on Clara.

And tusk voters themselves: Bags, Duff and Clara. Still doesn't rule any of them out as being the wolf....

Grrrr, nothing's jumping out at me here! I prefer my first wagonomics. I've got zilch conclusions when I can't make any assumptions.

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:57AM

quickbeam wrote: »

Just PMed our fabulous game mod to ask him if/who GnR voted for. Probably irrelevant, but you never know. And I like having all info.

Okay, got a reply. GnR presumably didn't vote.

duffman13 · 05-07-2019 10:59AM

Your own votes on both lynches were outliers and attempted CFDs so nothing to be gained from analysing yours QB

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 11:00AM

Kolido wrote: »

.
Qb - sulli and qb tried cfd, sulli was good. Still on my list since d0.

Seriously! If I was a wolf, why would I not just put all effort in to Whip and Duff. Two mislynches required, there they are? I'm not a wolf. I'm well aware of how close to LYLO we are, and wanting to avoid this. I want to get this right. A wolf wouldn't care, and just let those two hang.

You haven't been around much. Maybe you should be and put in some effort to actually finding the wolves!

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 11:01AM

duffman13 wrote: »

Your own votes on both lynches were outliers and attempted CFDs so nothing to be gained from analysing yours QB

They were. Feel free to do your own analysis and come to a conclusion.

Whiplashy · 05-07-2019 11:01AM

quickbeam wrote: »

Seriously! If I was a wolf, why would I not just put all effort in to Whip and Duff. Two mislynches required, there they are? I'm not a wolf. I'm well aware of how close to LYLO we are, and wanting to avoid this. I want to get this right. A wolf wouldn't care, and just let those two hang.

You haven't been around much. Maybe you should be and put in some effort to actually finding the wolves!

Unless you and duff are the wolves and you can’t try take the heat off of him only or it would look too suspicious.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 11:13AM

Post from the Jack's.

My issue with going after whipper and duffer is if we go after one tonight for lynch and they flip village where are we.

Keep going after the other one regardless?

The votes won't tell us anything if we go after them. So we will be in the same position tomorrow with largely the same info.

I think there is a wolf that has been sitting back. I'd be amazed if there were two loud wolves*

Kitten, whipper, kolido. They are the sit back people. One wolf in there I think.

The other in the mid group. Duffers clara.

*unless it's qb. And I wouldn't put it past her given how she has won games before.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 11:13AM

Post from the Jack's.

My issue with going after whipper and duffer is if we go after one tonight for lynch and they flip village where are we.

Keep going after the other one regardless?

The votes won't tell us anything if we go after them. So we will be in the same position tomorrow with largely the same info.

I think there is a wolf that has been sitting back. I'd be amazed if there were two loud wolves*

Kitten, whipper, kolido. They are the sit back people. One wolf in there I think.

The other in the mid group. Duffers clara.

*unless it's qb. And I wouldn't put it past her given how she has won games before.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 11:13AM

I really hate we can't take anything from kolido and qbs votes.

That would be some wolf team.

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 11:21AM

Baggly wrote: »

Post from the Jack's.

My issue with going after whipper and duffer is if we go after one tonight for lynch and they flip village where are we.

Keep going after the other one regardless?

The votes won't tell us anything if we go after them. So we will be in the same position tomorrow with largely the same info.

I think there is a wolf that has been sitting back. I'd be amazed if there were two loud wolves*

Kitten, whipper, kolido. They are the sit back people. One wolf in there I think.

The other in the mid group. Duffers clara.

*unless it's qb. And I wouldn't put it past her given how she has won games before.

If Whippy flipped green, I'd be definitely looking at Clara and Kitten.

Whiplashy · 05-07-2019 11:22AM

My issue is I know I’m village so I’m a mislynch, but I don’t think people are going to be able to let go of the idea that I’m a wolf. If you guys don’t lynch me now then you’ll most likely lynch me next. If you mislynch this time that means we lose when you mislynch me. If you mislynch me now what info will you get when I flip green? You may be able to then get a wolf on the next lynch.

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 11:23AM

quickbeam wrote: »

<baggly FFA>

Only two names given (so did Trit who I know is a villager, so not something to hang over, but worth noting). Both villagers, believe me. Otherwise, not a lot to gleam:

.

quickbeam wrote: »

Yeah, it is a bit wolfy to stick to your guns and not be flexible with your opinions on players. When I'd provided you with evidence that you were wrong, you didn't consider it and make an adjustment, or even comment about how my evidence wasn't good enough to dissuade you. And absolutely, not giving a third is a sign of being a wolf (not proof positive, I grant), but villagers had 12 people to choose from for our FFAs. Wolves, effectively had only 10, so it makes it harder to make up reasons against people that you *know* are not wolves. I've had plenty of experience of being a wolf, especially of late, so believe me, I know the difficulty in compiling FFAs as one.

I would really like some evidence of my change in tact. I didn't even get aggressive to your first accusation. I just said "you are wrong" (hell, if it was Clara she'd be accusing me of being a wolf for being too smooth with my response there - can't win!! ). It was when you came down with information that was spurious that I countered. I argued strongly perhaps, but I was not aggressive. It's a game, which I enjoy playing, why would I be getting aggressive about it?

Reminder for myself - I don't think QB and Bags are working together despite this post

Baggly · 05-07-2019 11:26AM

That wolves give 2 name's thing is, with respect, utter horse****e.

Whiplashy · 05-07-2019 11:28AM

Baggly wrote: »

That wolves give 2 name's thing is, with respect, utter horse****e.

I don’t know, I’ve done it as a wolf, but I’m a really bad wolf!

WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

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