WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 09:48AM

quickbeam wrote: »

There's also stuff I thought of with fresh perspective this morning that I'd like to do some research on. Stuff unrelated to Whippy and Duffman as I really don't want to tunnel them either, in case I'm wrong about them.

I'm here for the next 2 hours - I can do some research too - but can you give me some wolf hunting ideas.

I want to go back to Bag's GnR analysis too

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 09:51AM

Start D2 D3 D4
Seer 1 1 0 0
Wolf 3 3 3 2
Village 9 7 6 5

dead 2 2 2

There are still 5 of us good

1. Kitten_K
3. whiplashy
6. kolido
8. duffman
9. clarabel
10. baggly
13. quickbeam

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 09:53AM

Second observation. I do my wagonomics and come to the conclusion that GnR's teammates are Duffman and Whippy:

quickbeam wrote: »

If we're ruling out Kolido, then that means Whippy is a wolf per D1 votes (one of the two outliers).

Which leaves just Duff as a Tusk voter D1 as a wolf.

So there you go? Thoughts?

Bags goes his own way and also comes to the same conclusion:

Baggly wrote: »

Combined with the vote analysis, im happier with a duff/whip/GNR team.

And Clara's quick to point out "parings" that I'd missed:

Clarabel wrote: »

QB - there is the pair too.

FFA today for tomorrow vote pls.

FFA4
Whippy
K - wolf or lazy
Bags

If QB is not munched she is DEFO wolf. DEF

*If* I'm wrong about Whippy and Duffman, it seems like there's a bit of an attempt to keep me focused in their (incorrect) direction. In psychology experiments this is called the "confederate", the player placed there to agree with the subject (usually) in order that the subject strengthens their resolve in their initial opinion.

And interestingly, Bags' continuing needling of me, could be his way of scaring me away from looking in his direction again.

My next observation could be Clara's way. But have to find the quotes first.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 09:54AM

I'm not a wolf. Why are you going in hard on me straight off the bat qb when your own analysis yesterday and own conclusions made me less wolfy.

Is it because I'm still suss of you and all the work you did yesterday to clear yourself?

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 09:56AM

My really stupid STUPID remark yesterday about QB was to try avoid her getting munched. Wolves tend to take people doing the work and I selfishly didn't want you gone. Someone called me out on it last night and I felt really stupid.

Spend time today looking me up, but I am not the wolf, I'm gone completely at 2pm and won't be able to defend further. So let's get this out the way now please?

Baggly · 05-07-2019 09:58AM

I said your analysis was good and said the interactions analysis didn't contradict it. I gave everyone the interactions analysis to use themselves. If my conclusions are motivated as you have indicated above, surely that analysis must be wrong?

You and the other wolf have been planning this all night. Hence why munch didnt happen earlier.

You know you have to discredit me because I'm not going to let me suss of you go.

I'm at a test site today this morning but I'm happy to pull together all the lobbying qb did yesterday to clear herself. Coupled with her untraceable votes so far and this attack, it's pretty damning.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 09:59AM

The other thing was gnr was under no pressure when I posted that straight after munch. No-one but ecto knew he was a wolf. It would be throwing away a wolf under no pressure in your scenario qb.

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:00AM

Bags - any chance you will do vote analysis on D1 and D2 with fresh info? I'll give you the quote with the colours?

Baggly · 05-07-2019 10:01AM

Clarabel wrote:

Bags - any chance you will do vote analysis on D1 and D2 with fresh info? I'll give you the quote with the colours?

Can do later. On mobile at site test so can't til after lunch.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 10:01AM

Would you give it a shot yourself clara

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:03AM

Baggly wrote: »

Would you give it a shot yourself clara

I will of course. I find it easier to reason against your analysis then to do it myself but I will.

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:04AM

Okay, my observations on Clara. I thought I'd more examples, but these will do. I have felt bit pocketed by Clara this game. Here are two examples where she came to my defense.

Clarabel wrote: »

No one. Not one person can use a 10k fluff post as a reason...ever.

Clarabel wrote: »

Sure QB was looking for reactions, it was VERY QUIET

So (again) *if* I'm wrong about Whippy and Duffman, and Clara and Bags are trying to keep me focused incorrectly on them, and Bags is doing the "bad cop" routine of needling me and making me wary of looking at him, Clara could be doing the "good cop" routine of being my best bud?

Look, I'll be honest. I'm not sure I believe my three observations - Baggly posting post Ecto-munch like he knew he'd not be the victim; Bags and Clara pushing me to focus in the incorrect area by using two methods ... But, I wanted to post the ideas regardless, as others might gain use from them, or might clarify things in my own head a bit. I see Bags has posted above, but I haven't read it yet. Off to read his backlash against me daring to accuse him

duffman13 · 05-07-2019 10:04AM

So from reading back over the munch yesterday, I noted that QB found Ectos GnR analysis relatively quickly but I don't think that's necessarily wolfy in itself.

Thoughts in the GnR "slip" if it's a legit slip then obviously QB is wolf. If it's a preprepared slip then I dont think Baggly or QB are wolves. I need to look back after a few of GnR posts, the formatting of the post initially looks like a copy and paste job which would move me away from QB.

Whippy I'm just not sure on, yesterday I felt next lynch should be her and still do but I'll need to go back over things with an open mind today

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:05AM

Baggly wrote: »

I'm not a wolf. Why are you going in hard on me straight off the bat qb when your own analysis yesterday and own conclusions made me less wolfy.

Is it because I'm still suss of you and all the work you did yesterday to clear yourself?

Hardly going in hard. I made loads of caveats that I could be wrong.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 10:07AM

quickbeam wrote:

Hardly going in hard. I made loads of caveats that I could be wrong.

Yeah but straight in after munch. With a prepared post.

duffman13 · 05-07-2019 10:07AM

Thoughts on Baggly, found his and GnRs interaction on day 1 to be a bit contrived. Both doing the angryman very well and both defensive! Do wolves go hard at each other while neither of them land a killer blow? I'm leaning no on that but Baggly has been defensive

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:08AM

Person D2 up to 6pm D2 at lynch Posted D2 6pm - 10pm D3 6pm D3 Open to 6pm D3 lynch D3 6pm to lynch
Whiplashy 51 62 11 64 2 71 7 Low enough poster, actually increased at lynch
duffman13 33 43 10 48 5 54 6 Steady low poster
sullivlo dead dead dead 62 dead 63 1 sad
Kolido 20 26 6 37 11 39 2 generally low poster but drops off the earth last night
kitten_k 29 35 6 57 22 57 0 generally low poster but drops off the earth last night
Green&Red 120 132 12 159 27 162 3 caught wolf not posting
Clarabel 77 115 38 147 32 155 8 I guess there wasn't a huge amount to say last night
Baggly 92 92 0 146 54 146 0 ballsport *frown*
quickbeam 160 198 38 266 68 280 14 I guess there wasn't a huge amount to say last night

Baggly · 05-07-2019 10:09AM

Against the other remaining loud poster. Like it's clearly you trying to eliminate the other loud voice. Or shade it at least. So that you run the village.

Look if we had more mislynches it would be grand. Lynch me, if qb lives she is a wolf. But we don't have lynches to spare

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:10AM

Baggly wrote: »

I said your analysis was good and said the interactions analysis didn't contradict it. I gave everyone the interactions analysis to use themselves. If my conclusions are motivated as you have indicated above, surely that analysis must be wrong?

You and the other wolf have been planning this all night. Hence why munch didnt happen earlier.

You know you have to discredit me because I'm not going to let me suss of you go.

I'm at a test site today this morning but I'm happy to pull together all the lobbying qb did yesterday to clear herself. Coupled with her untraceable votes so far and this attack, it's pretty damning.

Your first two paragraphs contradict each other. My analysis was good and you came to the same conclusion (re Whippy and Duff). Yet, I'm the wolf?

Do you not agree that it's best to look at all angles? That tunneling is never a good option for a Villager? That's simply what I'm doing. I don't want to tunnel on two people. If I was the wolf, why would I look at all angles? I'd get a mislynch going on both and wolves would win?

I'm not lobbying to be cleared. Once Kitten found it, I was totally happy to accept that Sully was most likely Ecto's N0 and even found further supporting evidence to back this up.

If you are a villager (and on balance of probabilities I think you *probably* are), then I suggest you do as I'm doing and stop tunneling.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 10:10AM

Like do ye want me to post my reffing schedule. It's probably too meta. It's legit tho.

Whiplashy · 05-07-2019 10:11AM

What are the numbers like now? How many mislynchs left? I’m not a wolf but if we can afford the mislynch maybe it will help to get me out of the way so that the focus can go elsewhere. When I flip green I think you need to be taking a closer look at kitten, Clara, duff and kolido. Particularly duff and kolido because they’re getting away with totally flying under the radar.

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:11AM

duffman13 wrote: »

Thoughts on Baggly, found his and GnRs interaction on day 1 to be a bit contrived. Both doing the angryman very well and both defensive! Do wolves go hard at each other while neither of them land a killer blow? I'm leaning no on that but Baggly has been defensive

QB and Baggly had an argument that day too. I recall saying that I felt it made Baggly look more wolf.

Can you go back and read the argument with QB and see if you feel that it is more or less contrived?
At the time I didn't feel either of them were contrived, so I'll go back and read both of them now knowing GnR is a wolf.
I don't think both QB and Baggly are wolf but I have been suss of Bags since the start and I am always suss of QB

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:11AM

Baggly wrote: »

The other thing was gnr was under no pressure when I posted that straight after munch. No-one but ecto knew he was a wolf. It would be throwing away a wolf under no pressure in your scenario qb.

Did you not read my post? That's more or less what I said? I said under point 1) that you highlighting this was to your credit. FFS!!!

Baggly · 05-07-2019 10:12AM

quickbeam wrote:

If you are a villager (and on balance of probabilities I think you *probably* are), then I suggest you do as I'm doing and stop tunneling.

So you come out the gates posting about how I could be a wolf, but you think I'm probably not, and somehow that's not tunnelling. Go away out of that qb

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:12AM

Whiplashy wrote: »

What are the numbers like now? How many mislynchs left? I’m not a wolf but if we can afford the mislynch maybe it will help to get me out of the way so that the focus can go elsewhere. When I flip green I think you need to be taking a closer look at kitten, Clara, duff and kolido. Particularly duff and kolido because they’re getting away with totally flying under the radar.

I'd rather mislynch on duff or K than you, if I am honest. I've stonger feelings that you are wolf.

Baggly · 05-07-2019 10:12AM

I have to go. My boss is giving me looks for being on phone.

Clarabel · 05-07-2019 10:12AM

Clarabel wrote: »

I'd rather mislynch on duff or K than you, if I am honest. I've stonger feelings that you are wolf.

fiirst, as in leave you standing and mislynch on someone else

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:13AM

Baggly wrote: »

Yeah but straight in after munch. With a prepared post.

I didn't prepare it. In fact, I didn't want to waste my time preparing and looking for posts in case I was the munched. Hence, the delay finding all relevant quotes, and the amount of time that passed between each one was posted.

quickbeam · 05-07-2019 10:15AM

Baggly wrote: »

Like do ye want me to post my reffing schedule. It's probably too meta. It's legit tho.

What's this in relation to?

Whiplashy · 05-07-2019 10:15AM

Clarabel wrote: »

fiirst, as in leave you standing and mislynch on someone else

Well I’ve not put in a vote so that if you guys want to lynch me we can get to majority quicker. I’ll happily vote for any of those four if that’s what the village decides, but I’m not going to try and self pres because at this stage it may be more helpful to the village to confirm my green flip. I’ll go with what the majority want.

WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

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