Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Out of interest does Hunt speculate anywhere as to who he'd negotiate with? Does Barnier get his band back together for one night only or does the EU put some sort of temporary committee in place to combat the UK's mighty no deal leverage? Sounds like a lot of hassle for them on the face of it.

Also, watching that Johnson interview with Sophie Ridge, after trying to deflect on a question about costing his fantasy plans and schemes with some waffle about a 14th century Tunisian lord, he then mentions something about £22-25bn "headroom". Now, i may be wrong here, but i took this to be actually referring to the war chest Phillip Hammond had built up in the event of a no deal exit. If thats the case as i believe, it is incredibly disingenuous of Johnson to justify his fantastical financial promises on this as this is money set aside for the emergencies that will arise in the ensuing chaos. As i said, i may be mistaken, but that is what i took from it.

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AdamHawkinsGB/status/1145350216893304832

And Farage has not named a single one of them. Trawling through their Facebook comments I imagine before they can actually tell us who they are.

Adam Hawkins must be an example of the level of TAF intelligence in the Brexit party.

On his twitter handle, he has the Irish flag with England, Scotland and Wales.....

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Hope their money tree writes off my student loans to them.

On a serious note it will all likely just lead to a GE in the autumn. No Deal wont happen, govt will fall and we have a GE.

What happens in that case with the EU? Say an election is called mid October, do the EU say "You have three months until after this election to sort it out?" Thoughts anyone?

First, the UK has to ask for an extension. No extension can or will be given unless the UK asks for one.

There's a convention that, if the general election is triggered by a Vote of No Confidence in Parliament, the government become a "caretaker government" and must avoid any dramatic changes or irreversible measures until after the election. Some people argue that this means the government would have to ask for an extension. Others say no, a no-deal Brexit happening by automatic operation of Article 50 is something Parliament already approved when it voted to trigger Article 50; a caretaker government would be under no obligation to try to stop it happening.

So there might be some row over whether the outgoing government was constitutionally required to seek an extension. Of course, even if not constitutionally required, they might choose to seek one.

If the outgoing government doesn't seek an extension, it's game over and crash-out no-deal Brexit on 31 October, half-way through the election campaign. That'll be fun.

So let's suppose they do seek an extension, which seems more likely. How does the EU react?

They've been very strongly indicating that they won't grant an extension just so the UK can waste more time. The extension has to be something that might facilitate a resolution of the UK's hopeless indecision. But a general election does look like that thing. Obviously nobody knows what the outcome of a GE will be, but that very fact means that it's hard to rule out any possibility, from a government committed to choosing a no-deal Brexit (as opposed to merely failing to stop one), to a government that holds a second referendum, to a government that accepts the negotiated deal. And because these options are possible, and because the EU would be very reluctant to seem to push out a member that didn't want to leave yet and could yet stay indefinitely, I think the EU would grant the extension. But it would be fairly short - long enough to finish the election, new government to be installed, Parliament to reconvene, vote on a course of action. No longer.

If the new government came up with a course of action that would require longer to implement (e.g. drop the red lines and renegotiate Brexit on the basis that the UK would pursue a Norway-type solution) and could get Parliament to approve that, then they could seek another extension of the required length.

Mezcita wrote:

Too Game of Thrones?

Too Fawlty Towers.

Mezcita wrote: »

How about this? Boris seems fully aware of the potential loss of seats to the Conservatives if an election happens without the UK having left the EU. While asking for an extension immediately puts him in the same fire fighting situation which Mrs. May boxed herself into.

Therefore the UK (reluctantly) requests an extension from the EU. But Boris gets one of his minions to have a quiet word with the likes of Italy or Greece and asks them to object to an extension in return for some type of favourable deal to that country. As all EU states need to agree to a potential extension the UK is therefore out on the 31st of October.

That way the Brexit decision is fully out of the UK's hands and parliament can no longer do anything to stop it. Boris dodges the massively anti democratic bullet of proroguing parliament. Also cuts off the electoral threat of the Brexit party so that the Conservatives still have a fighting chance once another election happens. Tea and cucumber sandwiches on the 1st of November before all hell breaks loose.

Too Game of Thrones?

Could be far fetched but who knows? Johnson referring to a member of the 27 as "t*rds" could as well achieve all of the above without any need for the cloak and dagger stuff.

Here's another scenario of uncertain plausibility. A number of tory mps (say 10+) approach Theresa May and say they wont support Johnson for PM under current conditions. May approaches Johnson with this information and says unless he brings back WA before HOC with amendment to grant a 2nd ref, he wont have the support to become PM.

How likely is that? Probably not much, but i am quite certain that the leave side are not the only ones with a few possible tricks up their sleeve in this whole sordid affair.

ambro25 wrote: »

Beg to differ: this is all entirely predictable, and has been duly predicted for a good year at least.

What is bizarre, is the apparent apathy with which the British public continues to let all this carry on, 3 years on.

British politics have been snookered by the outcome of an advisory referendum ever since 24 June 2016, and there's still not one iota of common sense developing a breakout on the horizon, with about 4 months to go before the expiry of an existential-grade extension of time. That, for a modern western democracy like the UK, I find absolutely incredible.

It's as damning an indictment of democratic accountability, political awareness and average educational grade in the UK, as it's possible to get in this day and age.

im actually starting to think that this must all come back to some serious problem with the educational system.

ambro25 wrote: »

Beg to differ: this is all entirely predictable, and has been duly predicted for a good year at least.

What is bizarre, is the apparent apathy with which the British public continues to let all this carry on, 3 years on.

British politics have been snookered by the outcome of an advisory referendum ever since 24 June 2016, and there's still not one iota of common sense developing a breakout on the horizon, with about 4 months to go before the expiry of an existential-grade extension of time. That, for a modern western democracy like the UK, I find absolutely incredible.

It's as damning an indictment of democratic accountability, political awareness and average educational grade in the UK, as it's possible to get in this day and age.

It's crazy stuff. "There are probably years of economic hardship coming down the tracks, perhaps millions of job losses and the break up of the UK, but 52% of the public democratically voted for this to happen in an advisory referendum, so everything is fine and their wishes must be respected".

It's a government's job to protect the sane members of the public from such stupidity, not enable it.

Strazdas wrote: »

It's crazy stuff. "There are probably years of economic hardship coming down the tracks, perhaps millions of job losses and the break up of the UK, but 52% of the public democratically voted for this to happen in an advisory referendum, so everything is fine and their wishes must be respected".

It's a government's job to protect the sane members of the public from such stupidity, not enable it.

Nobody voted for any particular form of Brexit. Not even 1%.

Strazdas wrote: »

It looks like the British public have been brainwashed by their lying and corrupt media into thinking that the reversing of a referendum result would be the end of the world and the end of democracy in the UK.

As you say though, nobody in Britain can even agree on what Brexit is and what should be implemented. We now have the insane narrative developing that 17m people voted for No Deal.

Exactly. Even though recent polls show that only 33% would prefer a No Deal Brexit. But we mustn't forget that Johnson and Hunt aren't wooing the British electorate, just 260,000 Tories.

Strazdas wrote: »

It looks like the British public have been brainwashed by their lying and corrupt media into thinking that the reversing of a referendum result would be the end of the world and the end of democracy in the UK.

As you say though, nobody in Britain can even agree on what Brexit is and what should be implemented. We now have the insane narrative developing that 17m people voted for No Deal.

Thats so very true and those on the remain side need to get a bit more active in getting the truth out there. The UK may well now have no choice but to leave the EU if the latter refuses to facilitate them to their wishes, but as things stand, they don't HAVE TO leave the EU to fulfill some supposed democratic mandate that never actually existed in the first place. The remain side has lost momentum - tory leadership contest has sucked a lot of the oxygen out of whole debate - but i am certain it will regain the thread soon, particularly as no deal spectre looms.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exactly. Even though recent polls show that only 33% would prefer a No Deal Brexit. But we mustn't forget that Johnson and Hunt aren't wooing the British electorate, just 260,000 Tories.

that's still an absurdly high amount of people... 20m people... a lot of whom would in many other walks of life be considered rational sensible individuals. But Brexit just like pretty much like any rampant populist movement has become a cult.

But rampant populism is only something that happens to Germans.