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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • #2432
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    It's not us, it's you, declares Raab, trying to set the narrative that the EU kicked them out and it had nothing to do with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1143780549665968128


  • #2433
    kunst nugget
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    Hurrache wrote: »
    It's not us, it's you, declares Raab, trying to set the narrative that the EU kicked them out and it had nothing to do with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1143780549665968128

    Great reply on that thread.

    https://twitter.com/MRLibDem/status/1143785454287933440


  • #2434
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Beth Rigby also flags his nonsense. Sky have always been good on the subject, but there does seem to be bit more of a bite from the media over there, although that probably could be due to Johnson more so than a revelation on Brexit.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1143780699880792065


  • #2435
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 43,021 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Enzokk wrote: »
    I don't think we need to move before the UK though. Why should we be talking and preparing for a border when the UK has indicated multiple times there will not be a border? We may be the first to start preparations, but that will only be after the UK has indicated it will break their obligations and what they have said and written to the EU and Ireland,


    But the UK Parliament has also ruled out no-deal repeatedly as well which would mean no border. All options are on the table and none have been ruled out by the UK so why should we focus on one outcome?

    What we also have to take into account is that we are in a election campaign so we should not be making decisions or take actions when it could influence the two candidates and what they promise they will deliver.

    The UK are the ones leaving. The UK are the ones who, as it stands, have not agreed to the agreement which will mean a smooth transition and good relationship with the EU.

    You mention how the UK has ruled out a no-deal scenario. However, the UK have failed to tell the EU what they actually want. Without an agreement, what do the UK want? What do they expect?

    The EU can not do anything else: it is all down to the UK.
    If the EU are the first to erect a border, it is simply as a result of the UK's choices.


  • #2436
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,532 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Enzokk wrote: »
    I don't think we need to move before the UK though. Why should we be talking and preparing for a border when the UK has indicated multiple times there will not be a border? We may be the first to start preparations, but that will only be after the UK has indicated it will break their obligations and what they have said and written to the EU and Ireland,
    The UK has "guaranteed" no hard border, but it has also refused to make any of the choices needed to deliver on that guarantee. And many in the UK seem to think it simply means that the UK itself will not operate border controls. Which, obviously, even if were credible to think of the UK doing this unilaterally for more than a short period, is nothing like enough to avoid a hard border.

    In short, the UK appears to be completely unrealistic/in denial about what delivering on its guarantee actually requires, and the credibility and dependability of its guarantee, and even perhaps the good faith of its guarantee, is very much in question. We are long past the point where there is any advantage to Ireland/to the EU in not acknowledging this.
    Enzokk wrote: »
    But the UK Parliament has also ruled out no-deal repeatedly as well which would mean no border. All options are on the table and none have been ruled out by the UK so why should we focus on one outcome?
    Parliament has not rules out no deal. It has said that it rejects no deal, but at the same time is has passed legislation under which, unless Parliament takes further action, no deal will happen on 31 October. And Parliament has several times voted not to take that further action. Parliament not liking the outcome of its own choices and actions is not enough to avert that outcome, no matter how often parliament says that it doesn't like it.

    I'm not saying that no deal is inevitable, or that it is the only circumstance for which we must plan, but it is definitely a possibility, and one of the circumstances for which we should plan. And of course in other respects we are planning for it, explicitly and openly. So there is not case at all for saying that we should not openly plan to address the implication a no-deal Brexit would have for the border.
    Enzokk wrote: »
    What we also have to take into account is that we are in a election campaign so we should not be making decisions or take actions when it could influence the two candidates and what they promise they will deliver.
    You're talking about the Tory party leadership selection process? My point is that not acknowledging the need for border controls in the event of a no-deal Brexit allows the candidates in that process to promote, or hide behind, and entirely mendacious case that the backstop is unnecessary because border controls can and will be avoided by the Irish and UK authorities simply failying to operate any border controls. There is no interest at all for Ireland in encouraging, facilitating or failing to counter this wholly dishonest lie.


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  • #2437
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,516 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    You mention how the UK has ruled out a no-deal scenario. However, the UK have failed to tell the EU what they actually want. Without an agreement, what do the UK want? What do they expect?
    No they have stated what they want; EU to pay them for leaving; to be allowed full access to single market and all EU benefits without paying or follow any EU rules while doing so and of course the four freedoms only to apply one way along with things such as trademark recognition etc.

    In short; they (the Brexiteers) are stamping on the ground like a petulant three year old at a restaurant demanding to be Emperor of the Universe who can get anything they want and don't understand why the adults are rolling their eyes at them and asking them to choose from the menu in front of them of actual options.


  • #2438
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,837 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Beth Rigby also flags his nonsense. Sky have always been good on the subject, but there does seem to be bit more of a bite from the media over there, although that probably could be due to Johnson more so than a revelation on Brexit.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1143780699880792065

    She's also wrote a good article on things today:
    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-time-to-be-straight-about-the-no-deal-trade-off-11749050

    The problem is that there's such an ideological shift that Brexit will be great for the country that many people now are of the opinion that anything is worth it no matter how much damage it does. Unfortunately they will be getting a very rude awakening before they realise all the things that they have taken for granted. They dont know what hardship is but they migth soon.


  • #2439
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,988 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    The EU can not do anything else: it is all down to the UK.
    If the EU are the first to erect a border, it is simply as a result of the UK's choices.

    I have no doubt we will be the first to erect a border, I am talking about being the first to acknowledge that we will be putting up a border. We should only talk about and "start" our preparations for a border once the UK has guaranteed and is leaving without a deal. Talking about our plans and making them public until then will serve no purpose but give talking points to the newspapers and politicians in the UK.

    We are in a tough spot here, either we confirm we have plans for a border which will cause an uproar as we will not be looking to fulfill our part of the GFA, or we wait and do nothing and get caught out when a border is needed. I just feel it is better not to start talking about a border in public right now.

    Peregrinus wrote: »
    The UK has "guaranteed" no hard border, but it has also refused to make any of the choices needed to deliver on that guarantee. And many in the UK seem to think it simply means that the UK itself will not operate border controls. Which, obviously, even if were credible to think of the UK doing this unilaterally for more than a short period, is nothing like enough to avoid a hard border.

    In short, the UK appears to be completely unrealistic/in denial about what delivering on its guarantee actually requires, and the credibility and dependability of its guarantee, and even perhaps the good faith of its guarantee, is very much in question. We are long past the point where there is any advantage to Ireland/to the EU in not acknowledging this.


    Parliament has not rules out no deal. It has said that it rejects no deal, but at the same time is has passed legislation under which, unless Parliament takes further action, no deal will happen on 31 October. And Parliament has several times voted not to take that further action. Parliament not liking the outcome of its own choices and actions is not enough to avert that outcome, no matter how often parliament says that it doesn't like it.

    I'm not saying that no deal is inevitable, or that it is the only circumstance for which we must plan, but it is definitely a possibility, and one of the circumstances for which we should plan. And of course in other respects we are planning for it, explicitly and openly. So there is not case at all for saying that we should not openly plan to address the implication a no-deal Brexit would have for the border.


    You're talking about the Tory party leadership selection process? My point is that not acknowledging the need for border controls in the event of a no-deal Brexit allows the candidates in that process to promote, or hide behind, and entirely mendacious case that the backstop is unnecessary because border controls can and will be avoided by the Irish and UK authorities simply failying to operate any border controls. There is no interest at all for Ireland in encouraging, facilitating or failing to counter this wholly dishonest lie.

    As my reply above, we are being forced to play a political game about the border with the UK right now. We both know what the other cannot do and we are having to play a game of chicken about the border. The UK knows we cannot confirm we are preparing for a border, just as we know they cannot confirm they are preparing for a border. We are both waiting for the first mover on the border to blame the other side. I just feel we have time before we go public about it and we can move until either the UK confirms they are leaving and are starting preparations for a border or they leave without a deal on the 31st October. Either way we do not move first.

    My hope it still that we have plans, under the utmost secrecy, for a border already. But we cannot let people know we have these plans as they are against the very thing we have been telling the UK they cannot breach. That would be some own goal, telling the UK they cannot erect a border but here is our plans in the open.

    Hurrache wrote: »
    It's not us, it's you, declares Raab, trying to set the narrative that the EU kicked them out and it had nothing to do with the UK.
    https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1143780549665968128


    The blame game being set up by Raab for a policy they are advocating for. Why do you need to blame someone for a policy you want?


  • #2440
    kunst nugget
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    Enzokk wrote: »
    The blame game being set up by Raab for a policy they are advocating for. Why do you need to blame someone for a policy you want?

    Because he wants it for the benefit of him and his cronies, but he needs to blame the EU when the shyt hits the fan for Joe Public and they have to queue for tins of beans.


  • #2441
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,587 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I've been hearing that a well organised Brexit will end up costing us big but a disorganised chaotic Brexit means we'll get loads of funding. Is this true?


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  • #2442
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,220 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    trellheim wrote: »
    Note that the EU are trying to sort out Switzerland at same time and thats taken years and without any WA

    It was said by someone at some point in the last few years that due to the headache of "sorting out" Switzerland, the EU would never let that kind of relationship develop with another country ever again.
    Peregrinus wrote: »
    As long as Varadkar doesn not say, very clearly, that if there is a crash-out Brexit with no backstop, border controls are inevitable, then he allows the delusional to cherry-pick his own past comments to spin the line that the backstop is unnecessary, since border controls can be avoided without it.

    But the delusional will cherry-pick any part of any comment and spin it any way they want, to be believed and re-tweeted and re-stated by all of their True Believers.

    Peregrinus wrote: »
    In short, the UK appears to be completely unrealistic/in denial about what delivering on its guarantee actually requires, and the credibility and dependability of its guarantee, and even perhaps the good faith of its guarantee, is very much in question. We are long past the point where there is any advantage to Ireland/to the EU in not acknowledging this.

    We have seen, over the last three years, that "Dublin" and "Brussels" talk to each other all the time, that they game-plan for all possible scenarios, and that they have a single coherent response ready to distribute to the media within 30 minutes (at most) after any official declaration by a member of Her Majesty's Government.

    I see no evidence to suggest that the same planning and model documents are not already filed in a cabinet in Brussels, with one or other to be pulled out if or when the Tories stop playing silly buggers with each other and get back to governing the country.

    Assuming BoJo is elected PM and hangs on to the job till Halloween, my prediction is that as the new cliff-edge approaches, the EU will remind the UK with increasing emphasis that "No Deal" means no deals of any kind, that the existing unilateral transitional arrangements for planes, trains and isotopes have already expired, and that come November 1st, the gates to the EU will be shut and locked. All of them.

    The EU will - in the first instance - indicate that it will assume responsiblity for shutting the Irish border, along with every other point of entry into the bloc, and hammer home the message on every media platform that there are no mini-deals on offer, and so as of 00:00 01 Nov, Britain can try fending for herself with no plans in place, or (finally) sign the WA and move on to the next stage.


  • #2443
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,839 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Entrenchment is strange human trait, gets moreso as we age.
    The Family Brain Show BBC2 explores this each night and shows dramatically the difference between adults and children. We use it as a mechanism to shut off having to reassess all that we have concluded. It thus prevents us from doing a full evaluation. Thus Brexiteers once having made that leap along with some other magical leaps, find it impossible to reevaluate their rational.

    To quote from 150 years ago, Silas Marner ' A dull mind arriving at an inference that flatters a desire, is rarely able to retain the impression that, the notion from which the inference comes is, purely problematic'


  • #2444
    farmchoice
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,026 ✭✭✭farmchoice


    eagle eye wrote: »
    I've been hearing that a well organised Brexit will end up costing us big but a disorganised chaotic Brexit means we'll get loads of funding. Is this true?


    no the exact opposite is true, a well organized orderly Brexit ( backstop included) will be least harmful to us.
    a disorganized Brexit will in the short term place this country into a near emergency situation. a situation we have been planning for and that the EU have said they will help us with but none the less a very challenging position.
    that is why we are drawing up two complete budgets for the autumn.
    one premised on a organized Brexit and one on a no deal Brexit.


  • #2445
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,977 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    farmchoice wrote: »
    no the exact opposite is true, a well organized orderly Brexit ( backstop included) will be least harmful to us.
    a disorganized Brexit will in the short term place this country into a near emergency situation. a situation we have been planning for and that the EU have said they will help us with but none the less a very challenging position.
    that is why we are drawing up two complete budgets for the autumn.
    one premised on a organized Brexit and one on a no deal Brexit.


    Also theres almost certainly going to be a post brexit budget too according to Paschal


  • #2446
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,052 ✭✭✭Shelga


    How can even the most unicornist of Brexiters not acknowledge that any change to the border in the north is because they voted for the stupidity that is Brexit?

    Dominic Raab on the radio today said that it is ultimately the EU’s fault if there’s a no deal Brexit, basically because they wouldn’t give the UK everything they want, or compromise on the four pillars. His sense of superiority is quite something. He’s the epitome of all that is wrong with the British public school system, where humility seems to be viewed as a weakness.


  • #2447
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,977 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Shelga wrote: »
    How can even the most unicornist of Brexiters not acknowledge that any change to the border in the north is because they voted for the stupidity that is Brexit?


    Because they don't care what happens in the North so they will say and do anything to get their precious Brexit over the line.


  • #2448
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    volchitsa wrote: »
    But that is complete delusion, especially from people for whom one of the major issues with the EU was the need to "control our borders". And there's really no point in trying to reason with someone who is delusional. They will just take what you've said and integrate it into their fantasy. Or dismiss it.
    That delusion unfortunately is still being peddled not only on here but in the media and in the UK generally - that it's the EU that will need to put up a border; that it's all an EU thing and Ireland should be siding with the UK on this.

    The first major mis-step as I said on here months ago was accepting the UK's "red lines" which framed the deal being pitched to them as opposed to vice versa.


  • #2449
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,071 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Accepting the red lines? What was the alternative?

    It was their choice, nothing we could have done. All we could do, and did do, was lay out the possible outcomes based on the red lines


  • #2450
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,375 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Shelga wrote: »
    How can even the most unicornist of Brexiters not acknowledge that any change to the border in the north is because they voted for the stupidity that is Brexit?

    Dominic Raab on the radio today said that it is ultimately the EU’s fault if there’s a no deal Brexit, basically because they wouldn’t give the UK everything they want, or compromise on the four pillars. His sense of superiority is quite something. He’s the epitome of all that is wrong with the British public school system, where humility seems to be viewed as a weakness.

    Dominic Raab is the guy who did not know that Dover was near Calais.

    Dominic Raab, who was Brexit Secretary, said in a Commons Committee that he had never read the GFA - all 38 pages of it, despite how pivotal it was to Brexit negotiations.

    Dominic Raab was the guy who was appointed Brexit Secretary and went over to Brussels, thumped the table, rescinded all the already agreed matters, and went back home and was sacked or resigned to spend more time gardening in quick order.

    He is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.


  • #2451
    mickoneill31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 855 ✭✭✭mickoneill31


    The UK has red lines. So does the EU. That's fine.

    The problem is when the UKs contradict each other. But they set them. They have to figure out how to untangle them.


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  • #2452
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,424 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    FreudianSlippers wrote: »
    That delusion unfortunately is still being peddled not only on here but in the media and in the UK generally - that it's the EU that will need to put up a border; that it's all an EU thing and Ireland should be siding with the UK on this.

    The first major mis-step as I said on here months ago was accepting the UK's "red lines" which framed the deal being pitched to them as opposed to vice versa.

    Brexiteers keep speaking as if it is a binary UK-Ireland issue, when in fact it is an EU Single Market - UK one. I don't think a lot of them even fully understand this.


  • #2453
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,895 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Brexiteers keep speaking as if it is a binary UK-Ireland issue, when in fact it is an EU Single Market - UK one. I don't think a lot of them even fully understand this.

    I hope the Irish do. I don't really keep tabs but I would hate for Irish people to get the impression that anyone but the British is responsible for the erection of a border with Northern Ireland.

    I think the Brexiters are getting ready to justify the Brexit economic catastrophe by laying down the foundations for a long term case for blaming Ireland and the EU for the mess before they begin project Singapore-on-Thames which will miraculously be the next unicorn to be sold to the British public.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #2454
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 43,021 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I hope the Irish do. I don't really keep tabs but I would hate for Irish people to get the impression that anyone but the British is responsible for the erection of a border with Northern Ireland.
    I think 99.9% of Irish people realise the sheer idiocy of the Uk position and how the Irish are in no way responsible for it.
    The other 0.1% think Irexit is a good idea.


  • #2455
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,895 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    I think 99.9% of Irish people realise the sheer idiocy of the Uk position and how the Irish are in no way responsible for it.
    The other 0.1% think Irexit is a good idea.

    I'm specifically talking about the border though. There are people who will spread misinformation and unless the government takes the initiative, there's a risk that an Irexit movement could make it into Ireland's equivalent of the £350 million a week for the NHS. As I said, I'm not well up on how Irish people view Brexit but I think this is a legitimate area of concern.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #2456
    kunst nugget
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I'm specifically talking about the border though. There are people who will spread misinformation and unless the government takes the initiative, there's a risk that an Irexit movement could make it into Ireland's equivalent of the £350 million a week for the NHS. As I said, I'm not well up on how Irish people view Brexit but I think this is a legitimate area of concern.

    Well, the only way we'll be able to get rid of the border on this island if we leave the EU is if a) there's a border poll and the North joins the Republic or b) the Republic joins the UK.

    I can't see joining the UK being a great prospect for getting mass acceptance of the Irexit movement.


  • #2457
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 43,021 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I'm specifically talking about the border though. There are people who will spread misinformation and unless the government takes the initiative, there's a risk that an Irexit movement could make it into Ireland's equivalent of the £350 million a week for the NHS. As I said, I'm not well up on how Irish people view Brexit but I think this is a legitimate area of concern.
    IMO people in the republic realise a number of things:
    * Brexit is an unjustifiable mess
    * NI is not being represented and it's desire to remain is being ignored
    * we stand to lose a lot more if an EU border is put between us and "mainland" Europe
    * none of this is our doing

    If this means that a border goes up then so be it. We did not ask for it nor do we want it but it is a necessary evil.

    As for Irexit, whilst I don't think anyone with a level of reasonable mental capacity would consider leaving the best thing that happened this country. However, you're right that the government should be conscious of any BJ or Farage-type bull being spread


  • #2458
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    eagle eye wrote: »
    I've been hearing that a well organised Brexit will end up costing us big but a disorganised chaotic Brexit means we'll get loads of funding. Is this true?
    Sounds like the kind of fantasy stuff that someone invents to try and get support for Brexit tbh. "The EU will give you loads of grants!".


  • #2459
    BluePlanet
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,444 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    It's all about the blame game now.

    I would rather Leo and Coveney never said they had no plans on putting up border infastructure.

    Problem is the media and opposition would be doing nothing but hounding them to spell out WHEN and WHAT infastructure would go up.


  • #2460
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,130 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    It's all about the blame game now.

    I would rather Leo and Coveney never said they had no plans on putting up border infastructure.

    Problem is the media and opposition would be doing nothing but hounding them to spell out WHEN and WHAT infastructure would go up.
    I think that's what a lot of posters here are forgetting when they say the Irish government should spell out exactly what happens if there is no deal. There had been remarkable unity in Irish politics and that comes from the vagueness of the plans and to be fair the unwillingness of the opposition to press the government on it's plans.

    If they came out, well then the opposition would be forced to oppose it, this laying bare divisions in Ireland that the brexiters will press to take advantage of.


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  • #2461
    serfboard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Since the British do nothing but lie over Brexit and the border specifically, perhaps we should come up with some lies of our own?

    Cue a Daily Express/Mail/Telegraph/Ranting Tory Rag headline: "Flood of immigrants expected at the border"

    'Irish Government sources have said that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, with no border infrastructure on the British side, they simply will be not able to control the expected deluge of Eastern European immigrants expected to pour into the UK through its the border with the Republic. Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary has stated that they are seeing "unprecedented" demand for flights from Romania and Bulgaria to Ireland from October 31st (Brexit day) onwards. "We are really surprised at the number of forward bookings that we are getting on flights from various Eastern European countries to Dublin, and we are going to double our flights, particularly from Romania and Bulgaria to Dublin from November."

    From Dublin, it is only a two-hour train or bus journey to Belfast, and with no border posts in place, there will be nothing to stop Eastern European immigrants entering the UK. The Home Office has proposed having immigration checks at ports on the UK mainland, but the DUP are believed to have ruled that out insisting that it will mean that Northern Ireland will be treated differently from the rest of the UK.'

    I bet they'd put up a Border infrastructure fairly sharpish in response to articles like that ...


This discussion has been closed.
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