2020 EV Scrappage scheme

26000 Elephants wrote: »

Where's all this electricity coming from? Were there detailed plans of how all the extra power is being generated, what carbon impact it will have and where the investment is coming from?

Quick back of envelope calculations on the amount of diesel and petrol used in Ireland every year and the amount of KW/h power required to replace it make unclear how it will be achieved in the time frame given.

The renewables (wind) that are switched off at night due to low demand currently perhaps?

And it's kWh, not KW/h

ELM327 wrote: »

And it's kWh, not KW/h

Derp.

Off shore most likely. People wouldn't be able to even see them from land. You need storage too for when it's not windy. Storage as in pumped water, batteries, interconnects with other countries, etc.

EVs are only the start. Use of fossil fuel will be slowly phased out entirely. As in heating houses, running factories, etc.

http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/#roi


A lot lot more :eek:

unkel wrote: »

A lot more wind. A lot of solar PV.

Irishphotodesk wrote: »

Why not create kinetic roads and ensure cars are adapted to benefit from the kinetic energy created, any surplus could go into the national grid.

Even if we did it for motorways a lot of EVs would be charged while travelling.

We are derailing the original thread... I'm open to a scrappage scheme in 2020 for EVs but it would need to really make the purchase affordable.

Are people really this dumb and unquestioning? Just throw a few quid at them and they will accept anything? There is unlikely *ever* to be a charging network of sufficient scale and capacity to serve an EV population at the level of car ownership we currently have. The only long term solution to this issue is the eventual banning of private car ownership for the masses. The discussion then, no doubt, will be the anger at how little the government gives you for scrapping your EV.

Currently 90% of our Energy is sourced from dead dinosaurs. In the last 20 years, the transition towards renewables has hardly made a dent in this. But somehow, in the next 20 that will miraculously turn around. At the moment, renewables are only capable of supplying 28% of our electricity needs - but electricity only meets 20% of our total energy needs!! ( Transport and heat are 66% of our energy needs, but renewables are barely 7% here) Our NDP for 2018- 2027 doesn't even hint at how will expand our electricity network to accommodate such a huge increase in demand - bar some vague idea of a multi-billion Euro extension cable plugged into the French grid. Anyone have any idea of how the French plan to generate our electricity?

Source

But, yeah, I take your point. How much will I get for scrapping my car?

26000 Elephants wrote: »

There are enormous obstacles to replacing fossil fuel sourced energy with renewables. Vague solutions like 'off-shore' and 'pumped water' are really not good enough when a deadline for outlawing ICE vehicles is already on the table. I dont think many people realise the scale of the issue: hense my question:

Is there a document that (even in outline) describes how the extra energy is going to be generated within the timeframe of the ban?

The ban is really effective from 2045 via the NCT with new ICE cars banned from 2030. That is enough time for us to adjust. The average age of cars here is 8.2 years so it's not as if there will be a huge rush , even in the next five years. The energy conundrum includes a lot more renewables along with a push on domestic solar plus options to feed extra into the grid. The whole insulation/ heat pump plans, in theory, will reduce our domestic consumption but there are still many bits that need to be fleshed out. 10-11 years is probably enough for a good bit of it.

elperello wrote: »

The last Government scrappage scheme was for 1.5k.
Given that almost all 10 year old cars are worth more than that they will have to offer a higher incentive to attract the people who have the money to buy a new electric.

Increased choices from manufacturers will help a lot and I imagine they'll add their own inducements.

unkel wrote: »

Incorrect. At the moment the maximum our grid can handle from renewables is 75% (this increases every year). Already our wind production can be much higher than this.

And Ireland has almost zero solar PV. To give you an idea what you can do with solar micro generation alone: I have a modest semi-d house. My attic is converted (3 velux windows) and I have solar thermal. With my PV panels on the roof that I have left, I already generate more electricity than I consume (apart from what my EV consumes)

Incorrect?

From the quoted SEAI document:

Over 500 MW of wind generation was installed
during the year. This saw wind generation account
for 25.2% (normalised) of the electricity generated
making it the second largest source of electricity
generation after natural gas.

You can take up yuur spurious interpretation of figures with the SEAI. Even they recognise that saying wind can "potentially" generate 75% of our needs is puerile: You cannot have electricity one day and none the next.

But you have skillfully avoided addressing my main point; How do we go from renewables providing (28% of 20%) 6% of our current energy needs to supplying nearly all of them? In 20 years? You and I are lucky enough to have private property sufficient to generate some of our energy needs, but what about those who dont?

Do you honestly believe that private car ownership can continue?

is_that_so wrote: »

The average age of cars here is 8.2 years

I've been wondering about this. Where did you get this number? I'm really wondering the median end-of-life/scrappage age of cars here? Always assumed it was around 10-11yrs but it must be some years longer if the average is 8.2...

unkel wrote: »

. One wind farm with 400-500 large wind generators off the west coast would generate the same yearly electricity Ireland currently consumes.

Off shore wind generation isnt exactly a new idea, so why arent we doing this now? I dont see any money allocated to off-shore wind generation (its not even mentioned) in the 2018-2027 National Strategy - considering the vast expense required ( its obvious stumbling block to date) you would have thought it was worth a mention in a document created only last year?

Maybe you are still speaking in hypotheticals? Which is fair enough because thats about as realistic as it will get. The logistic problems in managing off-shore farms on such a massive scale will ensure that they will never be a realistic solution to our energy needs.

Considering transport consumes 66% of our energy, dont you think a much more plausible solution would be to simply reduce "transport" to the bare essentials? Dont you believe that is where we are heading?

unkel wrote: »

Even the USA already has 100GW in wind power. .

Of which how much is off-shore? I'll tell you: 30MW

Thats 0.003% of their wind-power is generated off-shore, but its going to be the norm over here? Within 20 years?

If the yanks struggle to raise the funding for off-shore, where do you think we will get it? And within what time frame? Bear in mind that the planning for a combined National Childrens Hospital started in 1998, and has already ballooned to 600% of original estimates, how do you reckon a challenging project like off-shore wind will fare?

Lets say it again: 6% of our energy is renewable electricity. And we need to go to 90% within 20 years to meet targets. It wont be done.

is_that_so wrote: »

The ban is really effective from 2045 via the NCT with new ICE cars banned from 2030. That is enough time for us to adjust. The average age of cars here is 8.2 years so it's not as if there will be a huge rush , even in the next five years. The energy conundrum includes a lot more renewables along with a push on domestic solar plus options to feed extra into the grid. The whole insulation/ heat pump plans, in theory, will reduce our domestic consumption but there are still many bits that need to be fleshed out. 10-11 years is probably enough for a good bit of it.

However, on a rolling basis, cars aged 40 or more are exempt from NCT.
And cars aged 30-40 get a 2 year NCT. So if you have a 38 year old car that you NCt on 31/12/2044 you get an NCT for 2 years and its then exempt


Therefore it is only really ICE cars from 2006 onwards that are impacted. And on a rolling basis other cars are added. EG my 2009 superb. Will be impacted by the ban, but 3 years later hits 40 years old and is NCT exempt and therefore road legal by default

I agree in the long run having an EV does pay off. But what if you can’t meet the increased upfront cost in the immediate term?