Italexit. Proposals for new Italian currency gaining traction

Jimmy Garlic · 08-06-2019 11:19am #1

Looks like Italy is getting very itchy feet, proposals for a new Italian currency gaining traction in Rome. It will be interesting to see what unfolds as Italy starts preparing to bail out of the EU.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1137044/Italy-eurozone-euro-currency-EU-European-Commission-debt-latest-news-update

listermint · 08-06-2019 11:21am

Nonsense.

End thread.

InTheShadows · 08-06-2019 11:22am

This along with the coming hard brexit should be enough to tip the EU over the edge.

First Up · 08-06-2019 11:26am

InTheShadows wrote:

This along with the coming hard brexit should be enough to tip the EU over the edge.

You mean fall off their seats laughing?

pixelburp · 08-06-2019 11:33am

Leaving aside the fact it's a Daily Express article and was likely written with hysterical glee to bad mouth the EU, it mentions nothing of Italy leaving the EU, just some corners of its ... unconventional government proposing a parallel currency. Hardly the same thing, and unlikely to gain any traction. It's Italy, there'll be another government due in another 12 months anyway.

If anything, Brexit has shone a light on the harsh realities of leaving the EU, with many 'populist', anti-EU parties dropping "leave the union" from their respective manifestos. For all the bluster of Italy, Hungry et al, I don't believe they're foolish enough to take the plunge. Now if Brexit turns out to be some kind of economic miracle for Britain, let's return to this thread in 5-10 years, but until then, this kind of talk just feels like projection on the authors' part...

meeeeh · 08-06-2019 11:36am

This is to get Italy out of eurozone not our of EU. Italy can't devalue Euro to make itself more competitive but it could devalue their own currency. This type of ideas are not new, they were floated here during financial crisis and in Greece. Italian economy is a mess and being part of eurozone probably doesn't help.

Italy is a lot bigger problem for EU than Brexit. It has unsustainable debt and no growth. I don't know if separate currency is a solution but all ideas should be on the table because current situation can't continue. And it doesn't matter who is in power in Italy, this is a consequence of mismanagement of public finances for decades.

Jimmy Garlic · 08-06-2019 11:39am

First Up wrote: »

You mean fall off their seats laughing?

The only thing that would fuel their laughter is their arrogance, so detached they are from the reality that the cracks are getting bigger in their 'project'.

pixelburp · 08-06-2019 11:44am

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

The only thing that would fuel their laughter is their arrogance, so detached they are from the reality that the cracks are getting bigger in their 'project'.

Yet as has been flagged, this article is demonstrably NOT about Italy leaving the EU, no matter how much you might want it to be. Italy's public finances are a joke, need some kind of stimulus and it's obvious there are those entertaining Big Swings as ideas - though again, it's the Daily Express here and lord knows the amount of truth involved here

Twenty Grand · 08-06-2019 11:44am

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

The only thing that would fuel their laughter is their arrogance, so detached they are from the reality that the cracks are getting bigger in their 'project'.

I have never once heard a credible case for Ireland leaving the EU.

We need them more than ever with Brexit.

meeeeh · 08-06-2019 11:45am

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

The only thing that would fuel their laughter is their arrogance, so detached they are from the reality that the cracks are getting bigger in their 'project'.

The mess that is in Italy has a potential to cost us all dearly. If Italy needed a bailout it would be huge in comparison to Ireland and Greece. To me cheering something like that would be incredibly dumb but knock yourself out.

08-06-2019 11:50am

This 'traction' will halt suddenly when the ludicrous proposal meets reality.

Jimmy Garlic · 08-06-2019 12:16pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This 'traction' will halt suddenly when the ludicrous proposal meets reality.

The pomposity of the EUs imperial class will be their undoing.

First Up · 08-06-2019 12:20pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote:

The pomposity of the EUs imperial class will be their undoing.

Oh right.

What will happen then?

Stephen15 · 08-06-2019 12:27pm

Great to see pity our politicians are all EU lap dogs who are always willing to bow down to their masters in Brussels rather than looking out for our country. Italy has been under constant attack from the EU with of the few politicians in Salvini that's a true man of the people and not another useless bureaucrat. It's not only this look at how the EU has treated Italy with the migrant situation.

Jimmy Garlic · 08-06-2019 12:32pm

First Up wrote: »

Oh right.

What will happen then?

Countries will be free to act in their own interest again, instead of being hamstrung by layers of detached imperial bureaucracy.

Nody · 08-06-2019 12:42pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

Countries will be free to act in their own interest again, instead of being hamstrung by layers of detached imperial bureaucracy.

Right; so are you actually going to give a real argument backed up by facts or will you continue to do sound bites from Farage et al corner for the rest of the thread without bothering to engage? Only want to double check before I post again after this.

As for Italy leaving the Euro; the first political party there to propose it will be met with so many pitchforks and angry mobs that they will revert it quickly. The euro is one of the things Italians likes the most about EU because it stops their politicians to take the easy way out and devalue their currency (again and again and again) as in the past. Heck look at what happened when the two most populistic parties joined up to form a government; both being clearly anti EU and talked about leaving EU etc. How much of that remained once they went into government again? Yea; facts over soundbites.

Stephen15 wrote: »

Great to see pity our politicians are all EU lap dogs who are always willing to bow down to their masters in Brussels rather than looking out for our country. Italy has been under constant attack from the EU with of the few politicians in Salvini that's a true man of the people and not another useless bureaucrat. It's not only this look at how the EU has treated Italy with the migrant situation.

You mean the rules blocked by your beloved Hungarian, Polish etc. parties that don't want to take any part of it all? Because Germany, Sweden etc. all stood behind supporting Italy and sharing the burden but several far right wing anti EU countries blocked that idea; you know the people who are in the same veign and policy as Salvini... Hence look in the mirror rather than blame everything on EU next time because the issue here is looking straight back at you in that mirror.

08-06-2019 1:01pm

The leftist who were in charge of that country ruined it, by constantly running a ferry service to import migrants through Libya, without ever asking the Italians if thats what they wanted. After alot of the crimes/rapes/murders that took place, I don't blame Italy for wanting to be conservative now. It seems the more liberal a country is the more dangerous it becomes by importing all these migrants from the third world. I recommend the extreme leftist should move to the developing world, then the EU wont be falling apart.

murphaph · 08-06-2019 1:45pm

Abram Zealous Quarterfinal wrote: »

The leftist who were in charge of that country ruined it, by constantly running a ferry service to import migrants through Libya, without ever asking the Italians if thats what they wanted. After alot of the crimes/rapes/murders that took place, I don't blame Italy for wanting to be conservative now. It seems the more liberal a country is the more dangerous it becomes by importing all these migrants from the third world. I recommend the extreme leftist should move to the developing world, then the EU wont be falling apart.

Lol at the Idea that the birthplace of the Mafia was somehow this innocent crime free paradise before those awful migrants.

The EU, mostly in the shape of the eastern states let Italy and Greece down badly. Germany and some other countries pulled their weight but the Slavic states and Hungary were a disgrace.

pixelburp · 08-06-2019 1:52pm

It's curious that the entire travails of a country's wobbly economy can somehow be boiled down to a single issue by those neither living in the country, or suffering from that same single issue (suffering being euphemistic as how much do these things drain an economy, really). Italy's problems with debt, stagnant growth and the euro predate the ongoing migration crisis, but why let a sober discussion on a brittle Mediterranean economy get in the way of some "grr, outsiders" ranting.

Charles Babbage · 08-06-2019 1:54pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

Countries will be free to act in their own interest again, instead of being hamstrung by layers of detached imperial bureaucracy.

Yes, but it is in their own interest to cooperate with other countries and join trading blocs and the like.

Sometimes I think these threads are in After Hours.

First Up · 08-06-2019 1:59pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote:

Countries will be free to act in their own interest again, instead of being hamstrung by layers of detached imperial bureaucracy.

And how should they act differently to how they act now?

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-06-2019 2:45pm

The odds on Italexit are so short it might actually happen, last year they were 4.3, today it's 3.0.
E.g Invest 100notes get a (gross) return of 300. Bear in mind this take a good few years, so would loose out on any otherwise invested, compound interest gains, taking it down to 2.75 {5%x5yr) {excluding inflation}.

ILoveYourVibes · 09-06-2019 5:21am

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

Looks like Italy is getting very itchy feet, proposals for a new Italian currency gaining traction in Rome. It will be interesting to see what unfolds as Italy starts preparing to bail out of the EU.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1137044/Italy-eurozone-euro-currency-EU-European-Commission-debt-latest-news-update

Not a chance that currency will float. They will go to pieces if they exit.

Imo better for the EU if they are gone. Spain too.

ILoveYourVibes · 09-06-2019 5:22am

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Yes, but it is in their own interest to cooperate with other countries and join trading blocs and the like.

Sometimes I think these threads are in After Hours.

Yes. But they are THAT ****ing stupid.

brickster69 · 09-06-2019 11:52am

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Imo better for the EU if they are gone. Spain too.

That is the worst thing possible for the Eurozone.

Who would bail out Germany, Luxemburg, Holland & Finland ?

https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

Those debts BTW are not secured :eek:

No doubt Super Mario has a plan though. Yep, print more money and buy toxic junk bonds with it.

https://twitter.com/ecb/status/1136683885583130625

Jim2007 · 09-06-2019 7:08pm

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

The only thing that would fuel their laughter is their arrogance, so detached they are from the reality that the cracks are getting bigger in their 'project'.

Reality! This is reality for you, Italy does not have the national reserves sufficient to support a new currency for more than about 24 hours. At which point it would turn into monopoly money and they would not be able even buy essentials such as medical supplies, etc....

In 2017, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) attempted to devalue or at least peg the Franc to the Euro. In the process they acquired Eurobonds equal to the deficit of the 7 largest Euro Group economies before it got too expensive for them. Now the SNB is the only European central bank, with sufficient resources, capable of taking on the ECB and it even became too much for them. Even today the SNB conducts market operations in defence of Irish Euro bonds, when necessary to protect the large block they hold.

So when you can figure not Italy can manage a defend a new currency with such limited reserves, then and only then can you expect anyone to take your nonsense seriously.

brickster69 · 18-06-2019 11:51am

He is getting ready to fire up the printing presses again.

https://twitter.com/economics/status/1140932013441945603

Jim2007 · 19-06-2019 10:01pm

brickster69 wrote: »

He is getting ready to fire up the printing presses again.

https://twitter.com/economics/status/1140932013441945603

If all you can do is post links without any meaning full commentary, then we are left to assume you fully support the move.

CrabRevolution · 19-06-2019 10:46pm

I get the impression it's more a case of "Proposals for new Italian currency gaining traction among those who already supported new Italian currency anyway".

is_that_so · 19-06-2019 10:52pm

Foster Future Whistle wrote: »

The odds on Italexit are so short it might actually happen, last year they were 4.3, today it's 3.0.
E.g Invest 100notes get a (gross) return of 300. Bear in mind this take a good few years, so would loose out on any otherwise invested, compound interest gains, taking it down to 2.75 {5%x5yr) {excluding inflation}.

Greece really can't and the others are just hacked off with their own internal issues. A good bit of robust reform would help Italy no end. Being inside the Euro while doing it is the safer bet.

is_that_so · 19-06-2019 10:59pm

brickster69 wrote: »

He is getting ready to fire up the printing presses again.

https://twitter.com/economics/status/1140932013441945603

No, he's just offering observations on things that might or might not be agreed. He'll be done soon enough and a new guy will come in in his place. Maybe his next job can be to fix Italy!

brickster69 · 21-06-2019 7:18pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

If all you can do is post links without any meaning full commentary, then we are left to assume you fully support the move.

I do not support it, it is what it is.

Inflation has fallen and interest rates have fallen in the Eurozone despite QE of 12 Trillion. There is a 93% probability of interest rate cuts by Q1 2020. That will mean savers lose money having it in a bank. :eek:

You cannot print money you do not have, then borrow it to Countries that will never be able to pay it back.

Deub · 21-06-2019 7:35pm

brickster69 wrote: »

I do not support it, it is what it is.

Inflation has fallen and interest rates have fallen in the Eurozone despite QE of 12 Trillion. There is a 93% probability of interest rate cuts by Q1 2020. That will mean savers lose money having it in a bank. :eek:

You cannot print money you do not have, then borrow it to Countries that will never be able to pay it back.

So you think US is going to collapse as well?

Jim2007 · 21-06-2019 8:46pm

brickster69 wrote: »

You cannot print money you do not have, then borrow it to Countries that will never be able to pay it back.

Except that that is not what is happening.

hmmm · 22-06-2019 12:56pm

The only reason governments issue a parallel currency is so they immediately inflate away its value by printing lots of it. The first thing anyone with a bit of sense will do when they receive this ****e is convert it into Euros.

Hopefully the anti-EU crowd will leap from Bitcoin into this, and we can all have a bit of a laugh as they try and work out who to blame for the value of their monopoly money disappearing.

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 6:49pm

France has now overtaken Italy for debt in the Eurozone

https://twitter.com/jvanovertveldt/status/1152278588135227392

Wanderer78 · 28-07-2019 6:50pm

brickster69 wrote:

France has now overtaken Italy for debt in the Eurozone

Is that public or private debt?

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 6:57pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Is that public or private debt?

National debt

Wanderer78 · 28-07-2019 6:59pm

brickster69 wrote:

National debt

Ah nothing too much to worry about then, private debt generally causes more problems

oceanman · 28-07-2019 7:22pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

This along with the coming hard brexit should be enough to tip the EU over the edge.

we can only live in hope...

Wanderer78 · 28-07-2019 7:24pm

oceanman wrote:

we can only live in hope...

Oh careful what you wish for there, a collapsing eu would probably be detrimental to us all

brickster69 · 28-07-2019 7:54pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Ah nothing too much to worry about then, private debt generally causes more problems

Not as much as the 300 Billion Euro of Italian sovereign debt France is sat on. :eek:

Wanderer78 · 28-07-2019 8:07pm

brickster69 wrote:

Not as much as the 300 Billion Euro of Italian sovereign debt France is sat on.

Ah tis all a bit of a game, again, I'd be more concerned about the growing private debt levels in France than the public debt levels, history shows, private debt causes far more damage

meeeeh · 28-07-2019 9:01pm

This is in absolute levels. While French debt is too high it's around 100% of gdp, Italian is at 130% of gdp (or something like that I'm writing from memory). Cost of French borrowing is a lot lower than cost of Italian borrowing.

kowloon · 29-07-2019 12:09am

SNIP.

ancapailldorcha · 29-07-2019 8:33am

Off topic posts deleted. We already have a thread on migration to Europe.

ancapailldorcha · 29-07-2019 10:12am

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Off topic posts deleted. We already have a thread on migration to Europe.

Post deleted and sanction issued.

McGiver · 04-08-2019 10:01am

meeeeh wrote:

This is in absolute levels. While French debt is too high it's around 100% of gdp, Italian is at 130% of gdp (or something like that I'm writing from memory). Cost of French borrowing is a lot lower than cost of Italian borrowing.

And Irish national public debt is approx 105% of modified GNI (as debt to GDP ratio is useless in the Irish case), which indicates very similar high level of indebtedness.

Nody · 08-08-2019 8:33pm

And Italy goes to the polling stations again as Matteo Salvinis hopes he can replicate his gains in the EU elections; and another populist right wing government falls. My guess is neither party will end up in the next (albeit likely short lived) government coalition.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-08-2019 10:22pm

Nody wrote: »

And Italy goes to the polling stations again as Matteo Salvinis hopes he can replicate his gains in the EU elections; and another populist right wing government falls. My guess is neither party will end up in the next (albeit likely short lived) government coalition.

Is it not the case that as the League’s poll numbers approach 40%, it indicates they could get a result that could allow the party to govern on its own (without any need for coalition).

Add in the offer of deep tax cuts Salvini promises, could do very well. Has until Monday to decide the next move.

They remain nearly twice as likely as any other country - as the next to leave the EU (a position Greece used to hold for well over a decade).

listermint · 08-08-2019 11:03pm

Foster Future Whistle wrote: »

Is it not the case that as the League’s poll numbers approach 40%, it indicates they could get a result that could allow the party to govern on its own (without any need for coalition).

Add in the offer of deep tax cuts Salvini promises, could do very well. Has until Monday to decide the next move.

They remain nearly twice as likely as any other country - as the next to leave the EU (a position Greece used to hold for well over a decade).

Nah I don't see it. Let's join back here and see .

Italexit. Proposals for new Italian currency gaining traction

Comments