Liverpool FC Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours 2019/2020

5starpool · 06-06-2019 08:54PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

How. Current deal fairly massive and we couldn't hope for more coverage . Unless we get to CL final again.

Even the most optimistic pool fan would think a 3rd CL final in a row is probably about 20/1

We're currently about 6/1 to win it next year. Why the hell would we be 20/1 to reach the final?

FixdePitchmark · 06-06-2019 09:03PM

5starpool wrote: »

We're currently about 6/1 to win it next year. Why the hell would we be 20/1 to reach the final?

Are pool 6/1 . Jaysus .

Based on money put on so.
I think that's crazy and based on emotion of the post final euphoria.

How many teams have got to 3 finals in a row.

We got to final by the skin of our teeth.

The odds are based on money placed. Statistics are different thing.

garra · 06-06-2019 09:05PM

5starpool wrote: »

We're currently about 6/1 to win it next year. Why the hell would we be 20/1 to reach the final?

Someone posted about a similar phenomenon in relation to gambling on red/black on the roulette wheel. The common mistake is to assume (for example) that if red comes up 10 times in a row, there is a great chance of black coming up on the next spin... whereas it's still 50:50.

Iused2likebusts · 06-06-2019 09:14PM

Cant see why we wouldnt be 6 to 1 apart from City there is no team better than us in europe.

Kirby · 06-06-2019 09:19PM

garra wrote: »

Someone posted about a similar phenomenon in relation to gambling on red/black on the roulette wheel. The common mistake is to assume (for example) that if red comes up 10 times in a row, there is a great chance of black coming up on the next spin... whereas it's still 50:50.

This is true. However it doesn't apply here. The roulette wheel has no memory. Football does. Which is to say the factors at play are not the same.

13 black can't become unhappy at his position in the wheel. 3 red is unlikely to suffer a hamstring injury and 00 isn't likely to be tempted to try his hand managing another wheel.

A team winning the champions league for the third time running, where millions of factors can dictate winning or losing, is a lot longer than 6/1. Anyone making that bet is......an optimist.

Kirby · 06-06-2019 09:23PM

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Cant see why we wouldnt be 6 to 1 apart from City there is no team better than us in europe.

Because cup competitions don't work like that. In a league format, everyone plays each other, usually twice. Which means that the odds of the "best" team coming out on top are very good.

The champions league is a cup competition. The best team doesn't always win it. There are a lot more intangibles at play.

Iused2likebusts · 06-06-2019 09:31PM

Kirby wrote: »

Because cup competitions don't work like that. In a league format, everyone plays each other, usually twice. Which means that the odds of the "best" team coming out on top are very good.

The champions league is a cup competition. The best team doesn't always win it. There are a lot more intangibles at play.

But a bookies is still going to price up the second best team at short odds.

FixdePitchmark · 06-06-2019 09:34PM

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

But a bookies is still going to price up the second best team at short odds.

Yes they will.

But it is not their chances of winning.

Again

Probably only Real who have got to 3 finals . We are not at that level and don't have a Ronaldo type player.

Even the best Barcelona team didn't do it.

Kirby · 06-06-2019 09:35PM

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

But a bookies is still going to price up the second best team at short odds.

A bookies isn't going to JUST care who the best is or not. They will base the odds on where the money is going....thats what dictates their profit. If somebody put 100 million on Dundalk to win it, they would become the favourites.

Osmosis Jones · 06-06-2019 09:36PM

So the more finals you make in a row the more unlikely it is you make the next one?

~Rebel~ · 06-06-2019 09:40PM

Kirby wrote: »

Because cup competitions don't work like that. In a league format, everyone plays each other, usually twice. Which means that the odds of the "best" team coming out on top are very good.

The champions league is a cup competition. The best team doesn't always win it. There are a lot more intangibles at play.

Yes, and yet at the same time the 2-legged format clearly favours Liverpool more than other clubs. Under Klopp we have a 100% record of reaching European finals. 100%. Three consecutive campaigns of successfully navigating and thriving in 2-legged knockouts against the best in the world. That's bound to affect the odds a fair bit.

Iused2likebusts · 06-06-2019 09:41PM

Kirby wrote: »

A bookies isn't going to JUST care who the best is or not. They will base the odds on where the money is going....thats what dictates their profit. If somebody put 100 million on Dundalk to win it, they would become the favourites.

The odds have to start from somewhere how do they price them up for the first time. Man City will be favourites for next seasons PL because they are one of the best teams. Liverpool are going to be short for the CL as they are one of the best teams. If people lump on they will become shorter or vice versa. City are currently 5/1 id find it hard to believe the bookies at this stage have taken more money on city winning it then some Liverpool fans caught up in the euphoria of a CL win and placing a bet on them to win it next year. Apart from those people I cant imagine anyone has really considered placing a bet on next seasons CL at this stage.

~Rebel~ · 06-06-2019 09:43PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The first transfer we’ll make will just be announced. The days of our business being leaked is in the past.

To a large extent yes, but there will always be times where talk filters out. Fabinho last year caught everyone by surprise, but Shaqiri was talked about plenty before he was eventually signed, for instance.

FixdePitchmark · 06-06-2019 09:44PM

Osmosis Jones wrote: »

So the more finals you make in a row the more unlikely it is you make the next one?

Well that is what the model has shown forever.

Again look up how many teams have played 3 in a row.

5starpool · 06-06-2019 09:55PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Well that is what the model has shown forever.

Again look up how many teams have played 3 in a row.

It's absolutely irrelevant though as we have already done 2 of them, so they have zero part in us getting there or not next season.

Checking the odds again (I was slightly out last time, we are widely quoted at 8/1), City are favs, Barca second favs and us around the same (but possibly slightly shorter) as Real, PSG, Bayern, Juve, which is about right.

No team will be odds on due to the cup nature of it, but we have shown that European football is right up our street over the last few years under Klopp, never mind the fact that we are the holders. Of course we are among the favourites.

06-06-2019 09:59PM

We've come a long way even debating whether we can make another final!

Good times folks

FixdePitchmark · 06-06-2019 10:00PM

5starpool wrote: »

It's absolutely irrelevant though as we have already done 2 of them, so they have zero part in us getting there or not next season.

Checking the odds again (I was slightly out last time, we are widely quoted at 8/1), City are favs, Barca second favs and us around the same (but possibly slightly shorter) as Real, PSG, Bayern, Juve, which is about right.

No team will be odds on due to the cup nature of it, but we have shown that European football is right up our street over the last few years under Klopp, never mind the fact that we are the holders. Of course we are among the favourites.

So the odds are saying we will not be in the final

~Rebel~ · 06-06-2019 10:02PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

So the odds are saying we will not be in the final

I mean, of course... i presume that was never in doubt?

rossie1977 · 06-06-2019 10:08PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Well that is what the model has shown forever.

Again look up how many teams have played 3 in a row.

Real Madrid played in the 16/17/18 finals and won them all.

However its obvious that a team who has reached last two finals would be one of the favourites again.

Harry Palmr · 06-06-2019 10:15PM

Sure you could more or less expect Liverpool to reach the quarter finals as it is. Only a really tough draw plus injuries will stop a semi finals appearance.

gimli2112 · 06-06-2019 10:17PM

a hear City can't get into a semi-final despite being slightly better than us

garra · 06-06-2019 10:18PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

So the odds are saying we will not be in the final

Feck it so, sell the club Mr. Henry and take your missus on a holiday for the rest of your days!

jesus_thats_gre · 06-06-2019 10:20PM

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It looked like we weren't gonna get out of the Group stage at one point having lost 3 matches.

5starpool · 06-06-2019 10:26PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

So the odds are saying we will not be in the final

The odds are saying we are very much shorter than 20/1 to make the final.

~Rebel~ · 06-06-2019 10:26PM

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It looked like we weren't gonna get out of the Group stage at one point having lost 3 matches.

Honestly, I'd have worried about us more in the groups than in the straight knockouts. Shouldn't be so much of an issue next season though, with the jump from pot 3 to pot 1.

Anyone can have a bad day, so of course there's always the chance of going out early in the knockouts, but Anfield really is such a huge advantage that gives Liverpool the edge in key moments. It's those fine margins that tip the odds in your favour. But sure regardless, we have it this year, so the pressure is off next year to a large extent.

Damien360 · 06-06-2019 10:26PM

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It looked like we weren't gonna get out of the Group stage at one point having lost 3 matches.

Too soon. Shhhhh. Feel the good vibes for another while

Turtyturd · 06-06-2019 10:28PM

gimli2112 wrote: »

a hear City can't get into a semi-final despite being slightly better than us

But that’s because of the conspiracy.

citytillidie · 06-06-2019 10:29PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Are pool 6/1 . Jaysus .

Based on money put on so.
I think that's crazy and based on emotion of the post final euphoria.

How many teams have got to 3 finals in a row.

We got to final by the skin of our teeth.

The odds are based on money placed. Statistics are different thing.

Paddy Power had them at 7/1 last week to win the CL next season even before the final on Saturday

Turtyturd · 06-06-2019 10:31PM

Damien360 wrote: »

Too soon. Shhhhh. Feel the good vibes for another while

We should probably hand the trophy back.

Osmosis Jones · 06-06-2019 10:35PM

van Dijk vs Sterling

Liverpool FC Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours 2019/2020

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