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US Presidential Election 2020

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  • Options
    #542
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Jamiekelly wrote: »
    So Andrew Yang appeared on The Ben Shapiro show a few days ago and it has nearly a million views and judging by the comments it looks like he is being very well received by a solid right wing audience. Which is amazing considering his flagship proposal is Universal Basic Income and that idea usually goes down in flames when presented to any audience even slightly right of centre. He has a CNN town hall booked on Sunday and judging by his reception from the likes of Joe Rogan's audience, Ben Shapiro's audience and The Breakfast Club's audience I think he will easily overtake most of the other candidates by the time the 2020 campaigning gets going.


    Yang and Buttigieg are the bolters in this race - worth keeping an eye on. Both smart young men that would run rings around Trump in debates. Buttigieg particularly wouldn't be bullied by him; and importantly has an honourable record having served in Afghanistan as an intelligence officer.

    Mayor Pete would be more palatable to the Dems centre I feel as Yang's UBI flagship policy will probably scare the cows too much.

    America needs a young President. If it's Biden, I fear the under 35s will stay at home like they did in 2016.


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    #543
    Diceicle
    Registered Users Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭Diceicle


    I though this short video had some interesting takes on the potential fissures in the Democrats base when you take into account the increasing success of the asians and hispanics and their move into Americas middle-class in increasing numbers.



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    #544
    breatheme
    Registered Users Posts: 375 ✭✭breatheme


    I don't know. That video seems to assume that as you move up the economic ladder you tend to vote more Republican, which does not have to be necessarily true.


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    #545
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,022 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://spectator.us/notes-gravelanche-2020/

    Not a serious contender but nonetheless Gravel is a lot of fun.

    His viewpoint however along with others does raise the fear that the left may et themselves if this turns into a purity contest. The contempt a lot of the high profile Bernie backers have for Mayor Pete, Beto and well pretty much everyone bar Tulsi, Yang and er Gravel could be worrying next year. This race while it wont get as ugly as the republicans in 2016 could get quite messy.


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    #546
    DreamsBurnDown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 136 ✭✭DreamsBurnDown


    Five Democratic town halls tonight. Kamala Harris very impressive, needs to tighten up her message, but definitely has the right stuff to demolish Trump.


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    #547
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,940 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    DreamsBurnDown wrote:
    Five Democratic town halls tonight. Kamala Harris very impressive, needs to tighten up her message, but definitely has the right stuff to demolish Trump.


    The democrats have a lot of work to do, he could still very well get a second term, wouldn't surprise me in the least


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    #548
    DreamsBurnDown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 136 ✭✭DreamsBurnDown


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    The democrats have a lot of work to do, he could still very well get a second term, wouldn't surprise me in the least

    Agreed, the big mistake Democrats could make is underestimate him and assume anyone could beat him. They are two key issues for 2020, (i) the state of the economy next November, and (ii) the quality of the candidate the Democrats run.

    Regardless of how unpopular Trump is, the first issue is huge, as there is a natural resistance to change when the economy is doing well. In the only two cases in the past fifty years where a first term president was not reelected (Carter and Bush Sn), the country was in recession and unemployment was roughly 8%.

    This is why the Democratic nominee and platform is so critical. The lessons of history are clear. Nixon was a very unpopular figure in 1972, but because Democrats ran the wrong candidate and the economy was strong, he won in an absolute landslide.

    The path for Democrats is clear, run a strong candidate who can unite the party, and can clearly articulate a vision for the country that the electorate believes can be accomplished.


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    #549
    The Phantom Jipper
    Registered Users Posts: 879 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    I dipped in and out of the CNN debates, all five of them are on YouTube for anyone who wants to get a flavour for the candidates. Buttigieg is starting to wear a bit thin on me. There's only so many times I can hear the same talking points again and again. He got badly exposed on having literally no policies, it's disappointing that he seems to be a more cerebral Beto O'Rourke as I was impressed by him initially.

    Warren was very impressive. Its baffling that she's doing so poorly in the polls as she seems to offer a good mix of policy expertise and personal backstory.


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    #550
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,575 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Anyone running against Trump is going to have to find a way to deflect or absorb his verbal attacks. I understand that most politicians still subscribe to the dignified statesman role model and are reticent to mud wrestle with Trump, but whether they do or not, he's still going to splash mud on them, and worse is that when you're trying to promote a squeaky clean image, any little mud that does get on you is that much more noticeable, whereas Trump's been covered in mud from the beginning.

    Any bland candidate, promoting a vague message of unity and progress, is going to find the going hard against Trump.


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    #551
    Twenty Grand
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭Twenty Grand


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    Not much change


    The Hill poll but it's a much smaller sample size

    What I gather from that poll is that people don't know what the f*ck they want.

    This is a huge problem for Dems. As candidates get whittled down they'll lose voters to Republicans.


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    #552
    DreamsBurnDown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 136 ✭✭DreamsBurnDown


    briany wrote: »
    Anyone running against Trump is going to have to find a way to deflect or absorb his verbal attacks. I understand that most politicians still subscribe to the dignified statesman role model and are reticent to mud wrestle with Trump, but whether they do or not, he's still going to splash mud on them, and worse is that when you're trying to promote a squeaky clean image, any little mud that does get on you is that much more noticeable, whereas Trump's been covered in mud from the beginning.

    Any bland candidate, promoting a vague message of unity and progress, is going to find the going hard against Trump.

    Kamala would make bits of him. A 3 decade state deputy DA/DA/AG isn't going to wilt facing a bully.


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    #553
    DreamsBurnDown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 136 ✭✭DreamsBurnDown


    Twenty Grand wrote: »
    What I gather from that poll is that people don't know what the f*ck they want.

    This is a huge problem for Dems. As candidates get whittled down they'll lose voters to Republicans.

    It's far too early in the process. Half the candidates are not even well known nationally.


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    #554
    peddlelies
    Closed Accounts Posts: 840 ✭✭✭peddlelies


    Buttigieg is very impressive I must say, prob the best speaker of the lot and an impressive CV. I'd say he's the dark horse and I expect him to pick up momentum as the months roll on.

    Like Bernie, he's going to do a town hall on Fox.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/439088-buttigieg-fox-news-in-talks-on-town-hall

    "Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is in talks with Fox News about appearing in a town hall event on the network, a campaign spokesperson told The Hill on Tuesday.

    The spokesperson, speaking a day after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) appeared on a Fox town hall, told The Hill that “reaching out to the Fox audience is something we intend to do.”"


  • Options
    #555
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    DreamsBurnDown wrote: »
    It's far too early in the process. Half the candidates are not even well known nationally.
    Joe Biden expected to announce on Thursday.


  • Options
    #556
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    DreamsBurnDown wrote: »
    Agreed, the big mistake Democrats could make is underestimate him and assume anyone could beat him. They are two key issues for 2020, (i) the state of the economy next November, and (ii) the quality of the candidate the Democrats run.

    Regardless of how unpopular Trump is, the first issue is huge, as there is a natural resistance to change when the economy is doing well. In the only two cases in the past fifty years where a first term president was not reelected (Carter and Bush Sn), the country was in recession and unemployment was roughly 8%.

    This is why the Democratic nominee and platform is so critical. The lessons of history are clear. Nixon was a very unpopular figure in 1972, but because Democrats ran the wrong candidate and the economy was strong, he won in an absolute landslide.

    The path for Democrats is clear, run a strong candidate who can unite the party, and can clearly articulate a vision for the country that the electorate believes can be accomplished.
    I don't think they have to go that far. Picking someone who can win should do that. They can worry about all those cracks after, they're very good at fretting anyway!


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    #557
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,022 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I don't think they have to go that far. Picking someone who can win should do that. They can worry about all those cracks after, they're very good at fretting anyway!

    Yep, pick the person most likely to win the rust belt states that Trump edged in 2016 and its game over. Its that simple. Biden and Sanders look the safest bets in that scenario.


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    #558
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Mods, might I suggest this thread gets moved to a new one ever month or so? The poll is pointless with only one vote over a couple of years, whereas monthly ones would be interesting.


  • Options
    #559
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Yep, pick the person most likely to win the rust belt states that Trump edged in 2016 and its game over. Its that simple. Biden and Sanders look the safest bets in that scenario.
    The sensible view outside the Dems. Whether they can see that is another question, I don't think Bernie suits now. Far too inclined to rant and seem to be as intransigent as Trump on some things. Makes him an easier target. Biden might be the person or one of the others might hit that middle ground. Either way they need that field to reduce fast and resist bouncing way left.


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    #560
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,121 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Twenty Grand wrote: »
    What I gather from that poll is that people don't know what the f*ck they want.

    This is a huge problem for Dems. As candidates get whittled down they'll lose voters to Republicans.

    The problem that Democrats have in general is that their voters are far more interested in the candidate then the "badge" as it were.

    It's not that they'll lose votes to the GOP , they'll just lose voters.

    US Democrat voters have a tendency to simply stay at home if their preferred candidate isn't on the ballot.

    There are significantly more Democrat voters in the US than Republicans.

    The single biggest thing that every single one of the losers in the Democratic primary can do, is stand on the Dais repeatedly and tell their supporters to vote for the winning Democratic party candidate , even if that means "holding their nose" to some extent because the winner is too centrist or too Left-wing or whatever for their particular liking.


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    #561
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Twenty Grand wrote: »
    What I gather from that poll is that people don't know what the f*ck they want.

    I made the point in the aftermath of Trump's election that what the people seem to want is to be told what they want to hear, which isn't exactly a recipe for a happy electoral outcome.


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    #562
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,575 ✭✭✭✭briany


    peddlelies wrote: »
    Buttigieg is very impressive I must say, prob the best speaker of the lot and an impressive CV. I'd say he's the dark horse and I expect him to pick up momentum as the months roll on.

    Like Bernie, he's going to do a town hall on Fox.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/439088-buttigieg-fox-news-in-talks-on-town-hall

    "Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is in talks with Fox News about appearing in a town hall event on the network, a campaign spokesperson told The Hill on Tuesday.

    The spokesperson, speaking a day after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) appeared on a Fox town hall, told The Hill that “reaching out to the Fox audience is something we intend to do.”"

    The big elephant in the room regarding Paul Buttigieg is that he's a gay man. It's not something I expect any high profile political commentator or political opponent to question in terms of political attack ads, but I expect it to be a big issue in the minds of every conservative-leaning voter that isn't exactly happy with Trump Republicanism. Political dark matter, I suppose you could say.

    Watching his town hall, I thought he was very composed and handled the questions well, but he seemed a bit rehearsed as well. I wonder how that cool, calm, studious approach will hold up if Trump comes out swinging in the 2020 debates (and you have to think he will). I didn't work out that great for Hil.


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    #563
    Gbear
    Registered Users Posts: 12,775 ✭✭✭✭Gbear


    briany wrote: »
    The big elephant in the room regarding Paul Buttigieg is that he's a gay man. It's not something I expect any high profile political commentator or political opponent to question in terms of political attack ads, but I expect it to be a big issue in the minds of every conservative-leaning voter that isn't exactly happy with Trump Republicanism. Political dark matter, I suppose you could say.

    Watching his town hall, I thought he was very composed and handled the questions well, but he seemed a bit rehearsed as well. I wonder how that cool, calm, studious approach will hold up if Trump comes out swinging in the 2020 debates (and you have to think he will). I didn't work out that great for Hil.

    I would've thought the bulk of the homophobes will be fairly securely in Trump's camp, and will be unlikely to switch to a gay-friendly Democratic party come what may.

    I can't see it being a big deal for either the base or the bulk of the floating vote.

    With things this polarised I think it's important for candidates not to waste time worrying about things they can't change.

    There's a larger electorate of Democrats than Republicans. They'll gain more by having someone energetic and who motivates large turnout than they will by trying to work in the margins of wooing dyed in the wool conservatives.


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    #564
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,728 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    If he's gay he has no hope and even less against Trump. It'll be pointed out that he is not a family man and doesn't understand what it's like to have kids. Then there is the religious side.
    No chance he gets elected.
    Beto is the one who will beat Trump of he gets the chance.


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    #565
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,022 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The sensible view outside the Dems. Whether they can see that is another question, I don't think Bernie suits now. Far too inclined to rant and seem to be as intransigent as Trump on some things. Makes him an easier target. Biden might be the person or one of the others might hit that middle ground. Either way they need that field to reduce fast and resist bouncing way left.

    Bernie would be the more dodgy of the two as older voters don't trust him, but he is very strong in those states and Trump simply can not win if he loses any of those states.

    I'd stick Warren as his VP which would keep the more establishment dems happy. In a perfect world it would be Gabbard, but sadly this is not her moment and she alienates a lot of the mainstream dems. Some have suggested other lefty options, but Bernie needs to be sensible here and try to unite the party, having Warren as VP would do that.


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    #566
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,575 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Gbear wrote: »
    I would've thought the bulk of the homophobes will be fairly securely in Trump's camp, and will be unlikely to switch to a gay-friendly Democratic party come what may.

    I'm thinking more of middle-America, really. To them, I wonder if the idea of having a gay man as POTUS is just a bit too unusual. The reason I call it political dark matter is because it could be one of those things that's an issue but remains unspoken and exists as a lingering thought in the back of the U.S. electorate's mind. Something hard to accurately poll.


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    #567
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,022 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    The biggest concern for Mayor Pete, is how much support does he have? Others have made the point better than I, but while the media clearly love him does it translate into votes? The media for the most part are upper class, white, and would consider themselves liberal, but outside of that bubble can he win?

    The hard left are Sanders die hards and the likes of Biden will eat into the more centreist older base.


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    #568
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,575 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Is there any merit to me having the feeling that Joe Biden is running because it's "his turn"? With this super delegates thing the Democrats have it seems to be that the their primaries are weighted in favour of one person.


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    #569
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,022 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Biden is the most likely person to beat Bernie and most importantly Trump, those are the reasons why he is running.


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    #570
    DreamsBurnDown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 136 ✭✭DreamsBurnDown


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Biden is the most likely person to beat Bernie and most importantly Trump, those are the reasons why he is running.

    If Biden had run in 2016 we wouldn't have Trump. The DNC deciding it was Hillary's "turn" was a huge mistake, as was shafting Bernie which kept millions of young voters from voting.


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    #571
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    DreamsBurnDown wrote: »
    If Biden had run in 2016 we wouldn't have Trump. The DNC deciding it was Hillary's "turn" was a huge mistake, as was shafting Bernie which kept millions of young voters from voting.

    New York was a joke. Loads of people wanted to vote for Sanders but the date to register as a Democrat was very early.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/12/new-york-primary-deadlines-voter-registration


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