Saving/Applying for a mortgage 2015/16/17/18/19

Bluefoam wrote: »

I see... You refer to the three months up to January. No stats there for the past three months.

You will not get more up to date stats as these are based on real life transaction data which is being recorded post transaction - sometimes well over 1 month after the transaction takes place.

Bluefoam wrote: »

Your same report says:


I'm not sure where you are getting all this infor, but you seem to be cherrypicking to support your particular viewpoint.

The report says the prices dropped but are still higher than they were 1 year ago.

Bluefoam wrote: »

So did prices drop or did growth drop?

Prices dropped. The growth has been negative for the last 3 months.

Open the report page and expand the table below:
"Show Table: Residential Property Price Index Breakdown(Base Jan 2005=100)"

it should get all clear.

voluntary wrote: »

Yeah, the prices dropped in November, December and January. The report for February is scheduled to be out tomorrow.
The Dublin's properties dropped by 2.8% in the last 3 reported months which equals to 8400 Euros drop for an average home in the 300k bracket.

voluntary wrote: »

What's also interesting is that the prices decrease accelerate, especially in dublin

Price changes of properties in Dublin:
November -0.7%
December -0.8%
January -1.6%

but you originally said 2.8%... what is it?

I wonder is part of that seasonal and will there be a jump in first quarter as 2019 exemptions come online.

It’s turning into the old car sales model

Bluefoam wrote: »

Okay, but your figures don't add up. 100 less .7, less .8, less 1.6% does not add up to 2.8 accrued over three months... Like I said you seem to be cherrypicking to suit your point.

Now its my turn...

• WOW, Property prices nationally have increased by 82.1% from their trough in early 2013.
• Dublin residential property prices have risen 92.3% from their February 2012 low
• Residential property prices increased by 5.6% nationally in the year to January.

Thats incredible!!! 5.6%. What amazing growth in the past year!!!

Thats a growth of €16,800 on a €300,000 home. **** thats amazing! OMG, OMG, OMG...

Oh man, you're stubborn.
First of all, these are not my numbers, these are reported by the CSO.
Secondly these numbers add up, you just count them wrong. You can't simply add % montly drops to give you a cummulative drop, it doesn't work like that.

There was a drop in each of these three months comparing to previous months. What's confusing about that? 2.8% is a cumulative 3 months drop (Jan19 comparing to Oct18)

The report also states that in a year there was a price increase (here's your increase), which means the prices in January 2019 were still higher than they were in January 2018.

The prices were probably also higher then in January 1916, but what does it tell us?

The property prices started to fall in November and kept falling. Note, these are transaction prices so the buyers' sentiments must have been changed already few months before that (sale agreed dates vs transaction dates).


.

Bluefoam wrote: »

Have they? Please provide a link to this information. It's new information, so please provide the source...

Are you refering specifically to the 1% drop in one suburb of one city in the entire country?

Are you actually saving/applying for a mortgage ?

Amirani wrote: »

Why are you comparing to data from 2012 and 2013? That's irrelevant to the current discussion. The point is that after successive years of large price growth in Dublin, there have been signs of price moderation. Prices in Dublin in January 2019 were down 2.8% on 3 months before. This is a fact, and is what the other poster is highlighting.

Why you want to change things around to look at a 7 year timeline instead I have no idea.

It is absolutely relevant to anyone saving, applying for a mortgage or purchasing a house. It shows sustained growth, growth following a downturn and is informative about the possible future growth of the property market. A home is a long term investment for many & risk should be assessed over the long term, as well as the short.

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

You seem to have a lot of knowledge on pricing and figures. Is this your 2nd or 3rd house ? Have you been negatively affected in the past with property prices ? Any pointers ? When’s the best time to buy ? You seem to be the man/woman with the answers.

I'm not claiming to have all the answers, just hitting back at all the doom and gloom merchants. I just think that there are too many buyers wishing the market to collapse so that they can capitalise (or so they think). Property is a long term purchase in most cases, so should be assessed and thought of as such. I'm sick of the 'poor me' brigade, moaning about how difficult it is for them... well, it's difficult for everyone. Get on with it, make your descisions and deal with your circumnstances. The market may drop in the short or even medium term, it may rise, who knows? But one thing is innevitable... the market will rise again. There are a huge number of happy home owners who bought at the height of a peak. We need (as a nation) to deal in positivity whether the market is rising or falling... Most people are going to repay over decades, get on with it and find a home you like and stop wishing for a recession, or crash or substantial drop.

voluntary wrote: »

Am I the 'doom and gloom merchant' you're referring to? Why? I posted pure, unedited statistics ont the last three months transactions data available. Moreover reported by the CSO. With no personal comment. It's you who created the whole 'doom and gloom' areola around that.

Why did you question me when I quoted longer term data from the information you provided? Apparently the long term view was not relevant, but the short term is?

The short term data is certainly a correction in the market. It is only a small drop in a rising trend. We will find out if it is to continue... I don't deny that. But even the CSO present the headline figure as being a 5.6% rise. So while I understand where you are coming from, I don't agree with your limited point of view.

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

You’re the only one to bring negativity to this thread and in turn sparked an argument with 3 other posters, this thread was all positivity until you nearly took the head off someone, looking for charts and figures of a drop in price. However I think we should move on now.

Nope, I didn't. Just sought details of claims that were being made, as is normal practice on this forum.

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Does anyone know if there’s new exceptions RE the 4.5 borrowing limit for this year ? Has anyone successfully borrowed over the 3.5 this year ?

Yes & Yes

Misssally wrote: »

Thanks! A few weeks I could deal with. But what about deposit? Would I need the funds from my sale for the deposit? I don’t have 10% in savings & I imagine I can’t use the deposit placed by a buyer on my home? (Presuming I’m
Sale agreed with contracts signed on my place). Interested to hear how’s others do it?

Estate agents generally ask for 5k booking deposit. Upon signing contracts you then provide the remainer of the 10% deposit, the rest is paid at drawdown.

If you need to extract equity from your sale, you should try to be a step ahead. Your bank may be willing to assist you, but I'm sure that if you don't have the depost saved and can't guaruntee the final sale of your house, you may not be an ideal candidate. They may also consider a bridging loan, but these are high interest loans & should be used with great care.

charlietheminxx wrote: »

Yes, I am. We were offered 4.5 times our salary, but only needed 4. We initially tried to apply in September 2018 but were told that we had no chance of getting an exception so late in the year, so held back until January and then it went fine for us.

Oh that's interesting. Good to know. We were hoping to apply for a LTV exemption so we can put down less of a deposit.

We have a good bit of equity due to be released from the house we're currently selling so it's not that we don't have 20%. I would just prefer to keep that money back to renovate the house we plan to buy. We're in no rush to buy it (it's owned by family and we currently live in it paying rent) so maybe I'll apply for a new mortgage in January 2020. That'll give us lots of time to sell the house we currently own too and save a bit more.

Frank Castle wrote: »

I may be misreading what you are saying, but as a non first time but I'm pretty sure you need the 20% deposit, regardless of receiving a exception to the 3.5 rule.

No, you can apply for either an exemption to the 3.5 rule or the LTV rule, but cannot receive both (and may receive neither)

Applying next month with AIB first, using the next few weeks to research interest rates properly and talk to a few knowledgeable relatives as I find it difficult to assess what is best. Really nervous even though initial meeting a few months ago went really positively. 3.5 times our salaries and savings...houses we would be looking at are in the region of 250-270k so fingers crossed approval is straightforward.