US Presidential Election 2020

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 19-03-2019 11:41AM

It's looking like Biden is about to announce and, unusually, he's going to apparently announce his VP candidate at this stage. Sounding like Stacey Abrams is the safe money, but I'm not sure about that personally.

Quin_Dub · 19-03-2019 12:16PM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

It's looking like Biden is about to announce and, unusually, he's going to apparently announce his VP candidate at this stage. Sounding like Stacey Abrams is the safe money, but I'm not sure about that personally.

That's a mistake I think.. Removes the possibility of choosing one of the other candidates as VP to consolidate the voters..

qwerty ui op · 19-03-2019 03:02PM

Gbear wrote: »

Beto has exploded with a $6m+ opening 24 hours of donations, so it certainly suggests he's very much a credible candidate at this early stage.
.

Anyone have a breakdown on this $6m, as in how many donors? It's an impressive figure and grabbed the headlines, but it's meaningless in terms of his popularity on the ground without knowing where the money came from.

Also $6m is easily got if it's from people who'll be looking for access and a possible return on investment at some later stage.

There is no good reason for him not to disclose this info.

rossie1977 · 19-03-2019 03:40PM

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1107636695091040256

Some solid tweets there about Beto. The Bernie brigade may call Beto an Obama clone, for many fed up with the madness of the last few years that's not the insult they may think.

B

Beto entering race hurts Sanders chances.

Beto is far more progressive than Obama was so it's weird they would compare him to Obama. In saying that the longer the Texas Senate race went the more to the centre and even right O'Rourke moved in an attempt to appeal to everyone.. didn't work. So maybe Bernie supporters have a point

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's a mistake I think.. Removes the possibility of choosing one of the other candidates as VP to consolidate the voters..

When was last time a primary winner picked one of their rivals as vp? Usually those primaries are so bitter and hard-fought it's unusual to turn around and forgive that fast. Even Obama choosing Clinton as secretary of state surprised many given how ugly their campaign was

Abrams is solid choice. She is a much better talker than pence so their debate should be home run win for Dems

eagle eye · 19-03-2019 06:35PM

Isn't Beto the guy who took no contributions from big money in the Senate race?

Also he lost out by 1% to a very well known Republican Senator in Texas which is some achievement even with a loss.

rossie1977 · 19-03-2019 08:30PM

Biden moving further ahead, gaining 4 points in last week and 6 since late February.

O'Rourke seeing very little bump after announcement

Muahahaha · 20-03-2019 01:23AM

Biden definitely seems to be running, he let it slip at a speech yesterday and just now the WSJ is reporting

Former Vice President Joe Biden reached out to at least a half-dozen supporters Tuesday to tell them he intends to run for president and to ask for their help in lining up contributions from major donors so he can quickly raise several million dollars, a person familiar with the matter said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-tells-supporters-he-plans-2020-bid-11553033380

eagle eye · 20-03-2019 08:24AM

If Biden runs, or any old guy, they are handing Trump a second term.

realdanbreen · 20-03-2019 11:01AM

Must say there is some difference between the dignified response of the New Zealand prime minister to the mass shooting there than there has been from president trump when the same thing happens in the US.

Penn · 20-03-2019 11:10AM

eagle eye wrote: »

If Biden runs, or any old guy, they are handing Trump a second term.

Why? Biden or "an old guy" would probably appeal more to moderates who could vote either way but may be opposed to a woman being nominated, whereas progressives who do want a woman nominated and are opposed to old white guys being nominated would still be more likely to vote for one or Biden if the alternative is Trump.

While there are definitely those who don't want to see another privileged old white guy or whatever get the nomination, those same people would likely see them as the far lesser of two evils, particularly given how Trump and the GOP are going after women's rights such as abortion etc.

Rjd2 · 20-03-2019 01:46PM

No such thing as a perfect candidate, the white guys will be attacked by the identity politics police and the establishment Democrats will be attacked by the hard left for not been radical enough.

Beating Trump is not all that complicated, take the rust belt, aka states he barely won in 2016 and he is goosed he he won't be winning states that Clinton won. Biden has as good chance as most of winning those battle ground states.

The Phantom Jipper · 20-03-2019 03:02PM

eagle eye wrote: »

If Biden runs, or any old guy, they are handing Trump a second term.

Biden is comfortably ahead in recent polls versus Trump.

BonnieSituation · 20-03-2019 03:05PM

I know it didn't matter to Trump in the end but what potential skeletons are there for Biden?

Also, delighted to see Warren wavering. Cannot stand her.

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-03-2019 03:15PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Biden is comfortably ahead in recent polls versus Trump.

You could earn x3 more by betting on Biden for POTUS, than Trump - because Trump is still the firm outright favourite.

One question would be: Is DT tiring of the role in office? As it may affect his motivation to run for re-election again at the age of 74. Does he enjoy the though of another 4yrs after 2020?

/ or prefer getting back to golf, hotels, casinos and the freedom of regular life. If the latter, who would be his preffered canidate on either side to replace him.

Ultros · 20-03-2019 03:17PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I know it didn't matter to Trump in the end but what potential skeletons are there for Biden?

If ( when ) it gets dirty and personal Trump will throw rocks in a glass because of the endless hours of footage of Biden acting inappropriately towards Children/Women.

If someone came forward with accusations it would severely damage his otherwise "clean" image and shock some people, whereas accusations against Trump just seem to brush off now and won't damage him.

After the pussygrab tape and numerous allegations he ( rightly ) can't sink much lower in some peoples eyes. While it's not a positive it does protect him somewhat in a new election.

Given Biden's choirboy persona and the general public probably not super aware of footage like below there's no doubt in my mind Trump will adopt the nickname "Creepy Joe".

Richard Hillman · 20-03-2019 03:19PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I know it didn't matter to Trump in the end but what potential skeletons are there for Biden?

Also, delighted to see Warren wavering. Cannot stand her.

I think the whole "Creepy Joe" thing will start to blow up. We're all Internet savvy here and have probably all see the videos but if Trump continuesly calls him "Creepy Joe", it will be something that will be inserted into every day conversation for Americans.

No matter if his actions around children are harmless or not, that sort of insinuation sticks. Just like "Crooked Hillary" did.

I think no matter where you are on the political divide, those videos make very uncomfortable viewing.

The Phantom Jipper · 20-03-2019 03:34PM

Misael Bewildered Sobriety wrote: »

You could earn x3 more by betting on Biden for POTUS, than Trump - because Trump is still the firm outright favourite./QUOTE]

You're comparing apples and oranges here. Biden's odds are longer because he's competing against the Democratic field, and then Trump. Trump doesn't have 20 other Republicans to defeat before making it on the ballot.

If Biden is the nominee, his current polling suggests he would beat Trump, which was my original point.

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-03-2019 03:43PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

You're comparing apples and oranges here. Biden's odds are longer because he's competing against the Democratic field, and then Trump. Trump doesn't have 20 other Republicans to defeat before making it on the ballot.

If Biden is the nominee, his current polling suggests he would beat Trump, which was my original point.

Only to a certain extent, if he was so great, the odds would be still be double Trumps 2.0, but less than the current offering of x8.0.

The fact remains Bernie is ahead, then there's (less creepy, easy to market) Beto, and some guy called Yang who's offering everyone in the audience a free $1,000 at the end of every month.

Have a feeling Biden is about to have a major credit card bill from parading around in an campaign bus, only for Beto/Bernie/Yang to pick up the spoils.

A few more creepy videos, or just the existing ones getting from utube to the regular older folks living room tv, and he hasn't a chance against Trump.

The Phantom Jipper · 20-03-2019 03:43PM

Ultros wrote: »

If ( when ) it gets dirty and personal Trump will throw rocks in a glass because of the endless hours of footage of Biden acting inappropriately towards Children/Women.

If someone came forward with accusations it would severely damage his otherwise "clean" image and shock some people, whereas accusations against Trump just seem to brush off now and won't damage him.

After the pussygrab tape and numerous allegations he ( rightly ) can't sink much lower in some peoples eyes. While it's not a positive it does protect him somewhat in a new election.

Given Biden's choirboy persona and the general public probably not super aware of footage like below there's no doubt in my mind Trump will adopt the nickname "Creepy Joe".

I can't see that being a problem for Biden - an awkward exchange, in public, standing next to her parents, in front of X amount of cameras. I've no doubt Trump fans would try and imply something else but given what Trump has said about his own daughter / has allowed other men to say about his daughter / has said about children, I don't think it's in his interests to go down that road.

The Phantom Jipper · 20-03-2019 03:55PM

Misael Bewildered Sobriety wrote: »

Only to a certain extent, if he was so great, the odds would be still be double Trumps 2.0, but less than the current offering of x8.0.

The fact remains Bernie is ahead, then there's (less creepy, easy to market) Beto, and some guy called Yang who's offering everyone in the audience a free $1,000 at the end of every month.

Have a feeling Biden is about to have a major credit card bill from parading around in an campaign bus, only for Beto/Bernie/Yang to pick up the spoils.

A few more creepy videos, or just the existing ones getting from utube to the regular older folks living room tv, and he hasn't a chance against Trump.

You're still not comparing like with like - Biden has longer odds because the betting markets don't rate his chances of beating Harris, O'Rourke and Sanders etc. Also bear in mind he hasn't officially entered the race. The fact remains that current polling suggests he would beat Trump (55%/45% according to the latest poll).

A better way of looking at this to see who the bookies think the winning party will be. The Democrats are strong favourites to win by this measure.

I would prefer if Biden wasn't the nominee personally, but it's absurd to suggest Trump would wipe the floor with him, especially based on what we currently know.

Ultros · 20-03-2019 03:56PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

I can't see that being a problem for Biden - an awkward exchange, in public, standing next to her parents, in front of X amount of cameras.

There's dozens of those "awkward exchanges" as you put it. Youtube "creepy joe biden" and you'll see multiple videos with millions of hits so it's certainty something that has garnered public interest.

The Washington Post mentioned Biden's behavior on their own official youtube channel as a talking point during the 2016 campaign

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfpWL7IFAQ4

I'm not disagreeing with you that it would be highly hypocritical of Trump to attack Biden on such a topic, but you have to understand Trump's sexual reputation is already at deviant level whereas Biden's a choirboy. It won't damage Trump much for him to go down that road but it will certainty damage Biden's clean image.

Trump isn't one to care much about being hypocritical, he'll act on impulses whether his campaign tell him to do something or not. If it is Trump and Biden the topic will come up, what else if he going to attack Biden on? I can't think of much really. Biden is a good candidate.

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-03-2019 04:02PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

... markets don't rate his chances of beating Harris, O'Rourke and Sanders etc. ...

Exactly, will have a very hard time beating other (much less creepy) Democrats, nevermind anyone else.

The Phantom Jipper · 20-03-2019 04:06PM

Ultros wrote: »

There's dozens of those "awkward exchanges" as you put it. Youtube "creepy joe biden" and you'll see multiple videos with millions of hits so it's certainty something that has garnered public interest.

The Washington Post mentioned Biden's behavior on their own official youtube channel as a talking point during the 2016 campaign

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfpWL7IFAQ4

I'm not disagreeing with you that it would be highly hypocritical of Trump to attack Biden on such a topic, but you have to understand Trump's sexual reputation is already at deviant level whereas Biden's a choirboy. It won't damage Trump much for him to go down that road but it will certainty damage Biden's clean image.

Trump isn't one to care much about being hypocritical, he'll act on impulses whether his campaign tell him to do something or not. If it is Trump and Biden the topic will come up, what else if he going to attack Biden on? I can't think of much really. Biden is a good candidate.

Being gregarious and prone to social gaffes is somewhat on brand for Biden, but you could well be right if there are more like this out there, Trump could drag it down to this level despite some of the shocking things he'd said or allowed be said about his own daughter. Given that Democratic voters are likely to inflict a higher price on perceived lechery (whether real or not), it could be a net positive for him.

The Phantom Jipper · 20-03-2019 04:10PM

Misael Bewildered Sobriety wrote: »

Exactly, will have a very hard time beating other (much less creepy) Democrats, nevermind anyone else.

Glad we're in agreement, it's a fairly formidable Democratic field. Whoever emerges will likely be the favourite to win the Presidency, especially if that person is Biden, based on current polling.

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-03-2019 04:19PM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Glad we're in agreement, it's a fairly formidable Democratic field. Whoever emerges will likely be the favourite to win the Presidency, especially if that person is Biden, based on current polling.

Not exactly, I said Biden will have a hard time beating the other Dems.

As for the actual POTUS can only see Yang beating DT, or maybe Beto with a bit of a chance.

The bigger question is whether or not Trump want's to face another load of years in the spotlight, as motivation will affect performance. He could if he wanted, relax into his late 70's on a sunny golf course.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 04:54PM

I'm not sure Beto can beat Trump... I'm not even remotely convinced he will do that well in primaries against Harris and Sanders.

rossie1977 · 20-03-2019 05:11PM

Misael Bewildered Sobriety wrote: »

You could earn x3 more by betting on Biden for POTUS, than Trump - because Trump is still the firm outright favourite.

Trump is only favourite because there is no Dem candidate, once field starts to shrink you will see different betting.

Latest Emerson poll has Biden leading Trump nationally by 10. Biden leading in Wisconsin by 8, Biden leading in Michigan by 8 (two of the three key races with Pennsylvania). Trump is only leading in Texas vs Biden by 1, Arizona is a tie and New Hampshire which Clinton just scraped has Biden winning by 10

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-03-2019 05:17PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

Trump is only favourite because there is no Dem candidate, once field starts to shrink you will see different betting.

Maybe, or maybe not, only time will tell. Polls at this early stage in the game are best used for hanging washing on outdoors.

BonnieSituation · 20-03-2019 05:32PM

Ultros wrote: »

If ( when ) it gets dirty and personal Trump will throw rocks in a glass because of the endless hours of footage of Biden acting inappropriately towards Children/Women.

If someone came forward with accusations it would severely damage his otherwise "clean" image and shock some people, whereas accusations against Trump just seem to brush off now and won't damage him.

After the pussygrab tape and numerous allegations he ( rightly ) can't sink much lower in some peoples eyes. While it's not a positive it does protect him somewhat in a new election.

Given Biden's choirboy persona and the general public probably not super aware of footage like below there's no doubt in my mind Trump will adopt the nickname "Creepy Joe".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I think the whole "Creepy Joe" thing will start to blow up. We're all Internet savvy here and have probably all see the videos but if Trump continuesly calls him "Creepy Joe", it will be something that will be inserted into every day conversation for Americans.

No matter if his actions around children are harmless or not, that sort of insinuation sticks. Just like "Crooked Hillary" did.

I think no matter where you are on the political divide, those videos make very uncomfortable viewing.

Aye. I was aware of those, sorry. I was more thinking is there anything else outside of the creepy Joe thing?

You're right about that sticking during a campaign.

eagle eye · 20-03-2019 06:47PM

Penn wrote:

Why? Biden or "an old guy" would probably appeal more to moderates who could vote either way but may be opposed to a woman being nominated, whereas progressives who do want a woman nominated and are opposed to old white guys being nominated would still be more likely to vote for one or Biden if the alternative is Trump.

The Phantom Jipper wrote:

Biden is comfortably ahead in recent polls versus Trump.

Please name the last old Democrat elected President.
The Democrats always win in a changing of the old guard platform. This is why the successful candidates have been relatively young men.
I think they would have won the last election with the right woman. Hilary Clinton was not the right woman and I said that two years before the election.
Now we are in a position where a woman has ran and failed so that option is not a good one this time around.
42-55 is the age group the Dems need to be looking at for a candidate. Beto looks progressive so at this moment in time he would be the best candidate imo.
I've mentioned others but they are not in the running.
Trump will kick ass against an old guy. He will get down and dirty and if someone like Biden tries to stay out of it he looks old, if he gets involved he has moved out of his comfort zone. No chance he beats Trump.

US Presidential Election 2020

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