Universal basic income trial in Finland

08-02-2019 11:51pm

Flyingsnowball wrote: »

It’s not about people’s health. It’s about making sure you get to burn all of earths resources before the Russians and Chinese do.
Nobody in power will go for this so.

You've got it in one, plus the elite believe our only purpose in life is to increase their bank balances.

Quality of life and not having the feelings of despair due to being unemployed and never able to find a job that pays enough to come off the dole, is important as well

08-02-2019 11:55pm

Liberty Proud Rank wrote: »

Would be essential, Would need to be 5yrs minimun (such would be the temptation) Maybe also specific courses on 'basic enterprise' also to point them in the right direction.

Give someone basic trading skills, the funds to buy basic equipment, no risk of penality for 'enterprise efforts' and you've got shed loads of window cleaners, barbers, mechanics, tradesfolk instantly.

I think that one of the reasons the UBI will not take off is simply if all these "one-man bands" only work enough to provide for themselves and their families, the "employers" will lose out as the "flow up" business model is not used.

Water John · 09-02-2019 12:21am

I think Dolan that is a Marxist analysis. I don't think there is a mono capitalistic grand plan. You are saying the systems preferred model would rule out independent cafes in favour of The Starbucks.
Capitalism doesn't make that conscious choice.

09-02-2019 12:28am

Water John wrote: »

I think Dolan that is a Marxist analysis. I don't think there is a mono capitalistic grand plan. You are saying the systems preferred model would rule out independent cafes in favour of The Starbucks.
Capitalism doesn't make that conscious choice.

I think that you're looking at what I said from the wrong end of the telescope.

mvl · 09-02-2019 2:08pm

Water John wrote: »

Good analysis Accumulator, it has to be ring fenced to long term residents, min residency number of years.

This is a weakness: UBI should be for citizens only (of a country or a grouping of countries that agree with the UBI principle)

- and of course, not to forget, another important matter: getting citizenship by naturalization (which is different than citizenship by descent) could be more restrictive than what Ireland currently has at the moment.

09-02-2019 2:39pm

Discussing whether foreigners should get UBI is really a diversion from discussing the benefits or otherwise of UBI.

I am disappointed for the 95% of people it would have benefited as it would have improved the well being of so many people, without holding back those who would have wanted to work hard to build and run a business as they could easily employ a large number of low waged part timers who only needed to work 20 hours a week or so to supplement their UBI income and have a decent standard of living as well.

SeanW · 09-02-2019 2:40pm

KyussB wrote: »

So basically they subsidized a business that was underpaying one of their workers below the living wage, and allowed that business to pocket the money at the cost of the public, leaving the public purse to take up the slack.

No. UBI covers the basics. If you work after getting UBI it's because your employer is making it worth your while - remember with UBI covering your basic costs, you could just sleep late every day and play videogames if you want.

Think about it - if your basic needs are met and you can have an enojyable albeit not glamorous lifestyle not working, and someone offers you a job at €1/hour, would that be worth it?

As predicted, the Basic Income turns into a business subsidy - no wonder the policy is enormously popular among major tech business owners. A much more appropriate policy, being to raise the minimum wage to a living wage.

UBI will be necessary if we get to a point where automation/outsourcing destroys many more jobs without there being new ones to replace them for the affected workers.

Additionally, UBI could be trialled early with people that are at genuine disadvantage. For example, in the U.S. people with criminal records have a very difficult time finding work, even volunteer work! If you're there and have a record, it will be difficult even to give away your labour for free! Not going to into a long story but I read a story on FB from a friend of an American family member about a guy who was fired from a VOLUNTEER job at a charity second hand shop. He'd done nothing wrong, but a colleague was stealing from the till so they investigated everyone and found that although he was totally innocent of the thefts, the upper management found out he'd had a record, so, adios amigo. UBI there would be good because not only would it excuse people from trying to do the impossible, but it might give them some better options than collecting welfare that they lose if they do get a few hours at some lousy job.

UBI for the poor is a much better policy than higher minimum wage because higher minimum wages destroy jobs. In the US for example, and here in Europe, we've had very low interest rates to make capital projects more appealing, and relatively high minimum wages (which have only ever fueled a wage-inflation cycle). The result? A.I. in the factory and self-ordering kiosks in McDonalds.

If we ever get to a nightmare situation where people en-masse cannot improve their lives through work, we'll be forced with the choice between UBI and Bolshevism, a world run by the likes of Stalin, Mao, or Alexandra Ocazio Cortez, who is basically Nicholas Maduro in heels. Doesn't take a genius to figure out which the best option.

mvl · 09-02-2019 2:49pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Discussing whether foreigners should get UBI is really a diversion from discussing the benefits or otherwise of UBI.

Maybe because having universal in its name can be misleading ?
- I'd think UBI would be more a matter of when/how it gets implemented, as it IS inevitable.

There will always be developed versus rest of the world on the initial implementation, wouldn't you agree ?

09-02-2019 2:49pm

Liberty Proud Rank wrote: »

Issue is the trials (of sorts) of a couple of thousand at a time can't be compared to a nationwide rollout.

If any country rolled out UBI en masse they'd see many positive and negative effects

Positve: Massive SoHO enterprise movements, if it means no bureaucracy paper filling in.
Positve: Spending surge for essential items, mid-range and investments in capital assest for the above
Positve: Tax havens and tax shy loophole capitalists will be hounded to pay for it, no longer a faint 'moral' obligation.

Negative: Massive (huge) sudden gravy-train migration from regions/states towards UBI sub-state/regions
Negative: Gross price inflation, if everyone is buying better brands of bread/milk, up the prices.

Problem is UBI is inevitable regardless. It's an when, not if.

I mostly agree with this except the negatives, the migration issue is a diversion - it's for citizens only

the inflation would be very limited as the UBI is replacing welfare payments in the main so most unemployed people who choose not to work part time will be no better off.

One disadvantage would be for employers who have really bad working conditions will find it almost impossible to find worker.

SeanW · 09-02-2019 2:55pm

Deleted User wrote: »

One disadvantage would be for employers who have really bad working conditions will find it almost impossible to find worker.

They will be fine - they'll just have to pay very well to make it worth someone's effort to deal with the bad conditions.

4068ac1elhodqr · 09-02-2019 3:35pm

Worth adding, whilst the emphasis won't only be on creating one-man band enterprises (that's the most beneficial however),
the majority of 'new risk-free work' will be delivered to UBI recepitants, via 'zero-hours-contracts' i.e. The gig-economy.

Directly tied to the introduction of UBI is the rise of automation job replacement.

This risk is linked to economy structures/types and job-related training (constant training is required to avoid replacement).

Interestingly Germany is 6th most at risk within the OECD, and the larger future EU candidate (Turkey) is 3rd most at risk.
Turkey 80m, are at bottom of the pile for overall incidence of job-training.

Agree it would have be an EU-wide rollout, or strict pre-conditions set, else 10s of millions from some areas will make a bee-line for Finland or wherever come 2025+.

Dohnjoe · 10-02-2019 11:32am

Am very skeptical about it

1. What would be an acceptable amount in Ireland?
2. Who would be entitled it?
3. How would it be funded?
4. How would we stop people from getting it then going and living in e.g. Thailand?
5. If it were a decent enough amount I know plenty of people who would dump their jobs instantly and never work again, how would this be avoided?

Water John · 10-02-2019 11:46am

Dohnjoe, I see you have a bit of reading to do. These points have been very well debated, here and there are plenty links provided by some posters.
Similar points were made 100 years ago when they brought in the OAP.

Dohnjoe · 10-02-2019 12:06pm

Water John wrote: »

Dohnjoe, I see you have a bit of reading to do. These points have been very well debated, here and there are plenty links provided by some posters.
Similar points were made 100 years ago when they brought in the OAP.

Have been reading up on it over the years and following the votes/trials. The answers to those types of questions always seem subjective or incomplete.

mvl · 10-02-2019 12:20pm

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Am very skeptical about it

1. What would be an acceptable amount in Ireland?
2. Who would be entitled it?
3. How would it be funded?
4. How would we stop people from getting it then going and living in e.g. Thailand?
5. If it were a decent enough amount I know plenty of people who would dump their jobs instantly and never work again, how would this be avoided?

Adding one that intrigues me ... where would ppl on UBI live / what type of housing ?

Water John · 10-02-2019 12:49pm

How many people actually consciously choose to live on Unemployment Benefit? Very few is the answer. This is despite it being easier in Ireland to do that for a long time, than most other countries.

UBI is a base, you add whatever income you can or wish to generate onto it. Very handy for self employed who may go trough cycles.

Dohnjoe · 10-02-2019 12:55pm

Water John wrote: »

UBI is a base, you add whatever income you can or wish to generate onto it. Very handy for self employed who may go trough cycles.

What would be a fair amount in Ireland per month?

Water John · 10-02-2019 1:02pm

The whole concept is that all adults get UBI, then any extra is taxed.
It depends what model one settles on, but it seems a base tax of 40% is needed on all income above UBI.
It is a whole rejigging of the system.
UBI would be at a similar level to present day UB.

Dohnjoe · 10-02-2019 1:20pm

Water John wrote: »

The whole concept is that all adults get UBI, then any extra is taxed.

People on a certain income will be paying more in tax to support UBI than they would be receiving via UBI. What percentage of the population would that cover?

mvl · 10-02-2019 1:25pm

Water John wrote: »

How many people actually consciously choose to live on Unemployment Benefit? Very few is the answer. This is despite it being easier in Ireland to do that for a long time, than most other countries.

UBI is a base, you add whatever income you can or wish to generate onto it. Very handy for self employed who may go trough cycles.

but if we're talking about singularity and UBI, majority of humans should be on UBI one day. so in the process, I would think ppl would be given UBI to quit their jobs, and there won't be alternatives, or no ?

professore · 10-02-2019 2:48pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think that one of the reasons the UBI will not take off is simply if all these "one-man bands" only work enough to provide for themselves and their families, the "employers" will lose out as the "flow up" business model is not used.

You can't pick and choose if you're a one man band. "I'll only do half your project and deliver it 6 months late" doesn't cut it (except with big government tenders...)

As a 2 man band myself I'd welcome it. Gives a floor to my income. Also would have a lot more options to hire freelancers than currently - often need someone for a few weeks or a month but couldn't hire them full time.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2019 2:52pm

Dohnjoe wrote: »

What would be a fair amount in Ireland per month?

It would need to be slightly higher than current average JSA type payments*. The whole point of it would be to allow specifcally for individual enterprise, training, study and more likely joining the coming gig-economy as a drone personal services employee.

*As it is 'universal', having extra offspring (element of personal responsibility here), health issues (partial responsibility), disability you won't get any more than anyone else, so savings can actually be made.

Afterall it, would still be very reasonable amount, perhaps similar to what the disabled or overly fertile couples already get.

Yes taxes on the rich would be required (stealth/loophole closing, rather than direct income taxes).

But gains in national productivity would also come from all the extra (no-risk) individuals doing gigs as hairdressers, deliveroos, bouncers, call-centre or whatever other variable hour zero contract {demand-supply-reactive] work is available.

10-02-2019 2:54pm

professore wrote: »

You can't pick and choose if you're a one man band. "I'll only do half your project and deliver it 6 months late" doesn't cut it (except with big government tenders...)

As a 2 man band myself I'd welcome it. Gives a floor to my income. Also would have a lot more options to hire freelancers than currently - often need someone for a few weeks or a month but couldn't hire them full time.

Depends entirely on the type of work you do, the flexibility is almost limitless. You work with a partner, so it would also work for both of you.

Many people prefer to have fixed hours as well as a regular work environment, UBI works is all these situations.

Dohnjoe · 10-02-2019 5:35pm

Liberty Proud Rank wrote: »

It would need to be slightly higher than current average JSA type payments*. The whole point of it would be to allow specifcally for individual enterprise, training, study and more likely joining the coming gig-economy as a drone personal services employee.

*As it is 'universal', having extra offspring (element of personal responsibility here), health issues (partial responsibility), disability you won't get any more than anyone else, so savings can actually be made.

Afterall it, would still be very reasonable amount, perhaps similar to what the disabled or overly fertile couples already get.

Yes taxes on the rich would be required (stealth/loophole closing, rather than direct income taxes).

But gains in national productivity would also come from all the extra (no-risk) individuals doing gigs as hairdressers, deliveroos, bouncers, call-centre or whatever other variable hour zero contract {demand-supply-reactive] work is available.

We should be able to figure out the numbers, if we say e.g. 1k EUR per month (although that would be enough to entice a not too insignificant number of people to live abroad in countries where that would be a considerable monthly salary)

Over 18 in Ireland would be around 3.5 mm people, they all get UBI.

That's around EUR 42 bn per year (not including the administration)

Currently the bill for total social is around 20 bn

UBI would need to be closer to 500 per month to be affordable for the country, which is less than the current social welfare

Water John · 10-02-2019 7:16pm

It would be around UB 750/800 month IWT.
Admin is quite low, it's one of the positive points. All the checking and CE Schemes are no longer needed.
What total is that? I think it's a shortfall of 10/12 Bn Iv'e seen as the figure given.

Arthur Daley · 10-02-2019 7:45pm

But tax revenues will suffer a significant collapse from higher rate taxpayers being replaced by automation, and living off the UBI with a bit of gig work on top.

So it's not just the cost of the UBI, it will also need an adjustment so that corporates are taxed more to account for the shortfall coming from paye workers disrupted by AI and to account from the higher profits created by this new world order of AI and automation.

Water John · 10-02-2019 7:51pm

Don't see the higher tax payers as the ones whose jobs will be automated. I do agree, it isn't just about Income Tax rates.

10-02-2019 8:07pm

Arthur Daley wrote: »

But tax revenues will suffer a significant collapse from higher rate taxpayers being replaced by automation, and living off the UBI with a bit of gig work on top.

So it's not just the cost of the UBI, it will also need an adjustment so that corporates are taxed more to account for the shortfall coming from paye workers disrupted by AI and to account from the higher profits created by this new world order of AI and automation.

Don't forget that corporations get literally millions of free hours labour from all the robots & IT systems that work in industry these days.
A fact that is often forgotten about.

Dohnjoe · 10-02-2019 8:09pm

Water John wrote: »

It would be around UB 750/800 month IWT.
Admin is quite low, it's one of the positive points. All the checking and CE Schemes are no longer needed.
What total is that? I think it's a shortfall of 10/12 Bn Iv'e seen as the figure given.

EUR 800 per month would mean the plan would cost a minimum of around 33.6 bn per year (taking 3.5 mm over 18's in Ireland)

Actually it would be a lot more due to pensions (the original 20 bn social includes pensions)

The current administration of social welfare is around EUR 800 mm

The country would have to find 13-20 bn extra minimum. For that amount they could easily double the budget for justice, agriculture, transport, plus 50% to education and plus 33% to health - there 'd be few voters who'd go for UBI over that

Arthur Daley · 10-02-2019 8:09pm

Water John wrote: »

Don't see the higher tax payers as the ones whose jobs will be automated. I do agree, it isn't just about Income Tax rates.

I wouldn't be so sure about that, as AI is replacing high end skills too, from sugeons and doctors down. Indeed when justifying automation or AI investment you are seeking to take out cost, and ironically it may be the likes of the struggling artist/creative types or certain jobs that relatively pay damn all that are in a position to weather the storm. Because they can't be automated, or aren't worth automating.

Universal basic income trial in Finland

Comments