Property Market 2019

Moonjet · 22-01-2019 6:13pm

mcbert wrote: »

For what its worth, I just sold my own house nearby so I'm somewhat familiar with prices there and it is my feeling that it is a bit of both actually.

Edit: I mean both getting original price wrong but also an adjustment happening too.

Post the link to the ad so we can judge for ourselves. 540k to 380k is clearly a huge mistake in the original valuation and not indicative of market trends.

mcbert · 22-01-2019 8:09pm

Moonjet wrote: »

Post the link to the ad so we can judge for ourselves. 540k to 380k is clearly a huge mistake in the original valuation and not indicative of market trends.

Funny. They just updated the ad to 480k. Must have been a typo earlier.

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 8:15pm

mcbert wrote: »

Funny. They just updated the ad to 480k. Must have been a typo earlier.

Well I'd say a reduction of 60k is more in line with current market trends

awec · 22-01-2019 8:19pm

dor843088 wrote: »

Well I'd say a reduction of 60k is more in line with current market trends

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

To be honest though, if the market did trend to a ~10% drop this would not be of much consequence.

The_Conductor · 22-01-2019 8:23pm

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

In certain areas. Parts of Dublin West- all the way into the Phoenix Park- are falling, and have been for the past 14 months (according to the CSO). Overall- prices are rising- however, the pace is extremely variable- and masks some consistent falls.............

Browney7 · 22-01-2019 8:24pm

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

Until last month they were but the CSO index flatlined between October and November (small decline in Dublin). One swallow a summer does not make and all that though. The Data to February and March (released in May) will be a good bellweather

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 8:25pm

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

There is 123 pages of price changes on myhome.ie in Dublin alone at 20 properties a page. That's 2500 properties. 95% are all revised downwards. Properties are not selling . If I remember correctly 11% price rise in 2017 and 3% in 2018 . They will be negative in 2019 in my opinion. The signs are there.

bluelamp · 22-01-2019 8:37pm

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

To be honest though, if the market did trend to a ~10% drop this would not be of much consequence.

The most recent statistic from the CSO is November, which showed a reduction. First drop in a couple of years AFAIK.

September +0.9
October +0.3
November -0.5

Too soon to say if it's a downward trend developing.

Bob24 · 22-01-2019 9:08pm

bluelamp wrote: »

The most recent statistic from the CSO is November, which showed a reduction. First drop in a couple of years AFAIK.

September +0.9
October +0.3
November -0.5

Too soon to say if it's a downward trend developing.

There were no MoM drops in 2017 (nationally), but we had two in 2016 (Nov-Dec and Jan-Feb) and another two in 2015 (Oct-Nov and Jan-Feb). So having one in 2018 is not such a rare occurrence and within the trend of these things more likely to happen in the October to February period.

This drop might be different and the start of a trend, but I would say its existence itself is not an unlikely event to worry about.

mkdon · 22-01-2019 9:12pm

when will December's figures be announced given we are now at tail end of january... is there a specific day in the month... is there somewhere where can find a more detailed breakdown on parts of Dublin that have risen or fallen in each month on average?

Bob24 · 22-01-2019 11:04pm

mkdon wrote: »

when will December's figures be announced given we are now at tail end of january... is there a specific day in the month... is there somewhere where can find a more detailed breakdown on parts of Dublin that have risen or fallen in each month on average?

Should be between the 10th and 15th of February. There always is lag and the November figures were for exemple only published last week.

Thargor · 27-01-2019 8:55pm

Is help to buy ending in December or does it always get extended?

Do banks take into account the help to buy refund when doing their calcs?

Evd-Burner · 28-01-2019 2:45pm

Thargor wrote: »

Is help to buy ending in December or does it always get extended?

Do banks take into account the help to buy refund when doing their calcs?

It is ending in December, but if you sign the contract before December and buy the house in say February you will still get it.

Yes they do take it into account towards your deposit.

beaz2018 · 28-01-2019 3:05pm

Evd-Burner wrote: »

It is ending in December, but if you sign the contract before December and buy the house in say February you will still get it.

Yes they do take it into account towards your deposit.

An extension to the December date is inevitable.

Evd-Burner · 28-01-2019 5:44pm

beaz2018 wrote: »

An extension to the December date is inevitable.

Any links or evidence for that?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 28-01-2019 5:57pm

Have heard developers are pushing for a 5 year extension in order to be able to commit to new developments. Makes sense really that it is continued given the housing shortage.

Wouldn't make sense to start a new development knowing it's going to expire in 11 months. Or at least it would make less sense.

Mickiemcfist · 28-01-2019 6:10pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Have heard developers are pushing for a 5 year extension in order to be able to commit to new developments. Makes sense really that it is continued given the housing shortage.

Wouldn't make sense to start a new development knowing it's going to expire in 11 months. Or at least it would make less sense.

Pretty sure they'll manage to sell them regardless.

soirish · 29-01-2019 4:45pm

The market is changing with Help to buy coming to an end and more buildings under construction.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 29-01-2019 5:00pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Pretty sure they'll manage to sell them regardless.

I'm sure they would but why not push for an incentive if possible.

Moonjet · 31-01-2019 1:12am

Barclays are moving the management of 190 billion euro of assets to Dublin over Brexit fears, creating an additional 150 jobs in the city centre. A few more of these announcements and we could start seeing a real impact on the Dublin property market very soon. Look what happened to London property market as they grew their role as the world's financial hub. Now it's slowly slipping away.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-47060676

mkdon · 31-01-2019 1:48am

Moonjet wrote: »

Barclays are moving the management of 190 billion euro of assets to Dublin over Brexit fears, creating an additional 150 jobs in the city centre. A few more of these announcements and we could start seeing a real impact on the Dublin property market very soon. Look what happened to London property market as they grew their role as the world's financial hub. Now it's slowly slipping away.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-47060676

brexit is also rumoured to cause 55000 job losses in Ireland

many of them in dublin ....

those 150 how many of them are looking to buy rather than rent ?

of those how many would be mortgage approved

Zenify · 31-01-2019 11:55am

Overall Brexit will reduce jobs in Ireland not add. Hopefully we can get as many new jobs as we can out of it, but there's not going to be anything positive about Brexit for Ireland.

Graham · 31-01-2019 12:08pm

Given nobody has a notion what/if/when/how Brexit will pan out, fair play to those able to predict the outcome.

tigger123 · 31-01-2019 12:13pm

Theresa May, Michel Barnier and Donald Tusk have zero clue what the next few months will bring. It's impossible to predict what will actually happen, never mind what the knock effects may be.

BBFAN · 31-01-2019 8:49pm

mkdon wrote: »

brexit is also rumoured to cause 55000 job losses in Ireland

many of them in dublin ....

those 150 how many of them are looking to buy rather than rent ?

of those how many would be mortgage approved

55,000 job losses in Ireland is a ridiculous figure to suggest.

The_Conductor · 31-01-2019 9:04pm

BBFAN wrote: »

55,000 job losses in Ireland is a ridiculous figure to suggest.

It is a bit pulled out of thin air- but if you look at how they broke down the different sectors- and where a lot of those jobs are (the types of jobs and the locations)- it rapidly becomes more transparent in nature. E.g. our primary and secondary food sectors have the UK as their major market- if you look at Bord Bia's annual report- it gives you a good flavour (if you'll excuse the pun) of what those exports are- and where they're going (and in what volumes). We may have massively diversified away from the UK over the last 10 years even- however, they remain our single biggest destination for many food and related exports.

I'm not trying to say 55,000 jobs are at risk- god only knows how many are- but the number of jobs at risk is probably hundreds of times higher than the number of UK based jobs that migrate over here. One banker for 100 food preparation technicians (or whatever they call them)? We're possibly on those sort of scales..........

If a lot of the holders of these endangered jobs are recent economic emigrants to Ireland- perhaps they will simply move to find work elsewhere- who knows?

Its plausible that expensive Dublin property- of a kin likely to appeal to bankers and high rollers- will boom- while absolutely nothing whatsoever happens to the lower strata of the property market- those million pound bankers aren't interested in a nice 2-3 bed in up and coming Stonybatter or elsewhere- they want a luxury dwelling in walk-in condition- and they want flexibility to move if and when their posts subsequently move again (which is likely- look at the Irish financial jobs that moved to Germany and France in the last 12 months).

Its a murky crystal ball- and its dangerous to try and predict how its going clear- or indeed, if its going to clear. Dan Quaile was onto something with his known unknowns, and his unknown unknowns..........

Have a good evening all.

Askthe EA · 01-02-2019 2:31pm

soirish wrote: »

The market is changing with Help to buy coming to an end and more buildings under construction.

Is it coming to an end? End of 2019 already and whos to say it wont be extended again?

The Student · 01-02-2019 2:47pm

A no deal Brexit will have major implications for Ireland. Prices of imported goods from the UK will either rise due to import tariffs or stay as they are due to a fall in the value of Sterling.

Exports to the UK will become more expensive for one or both of the above reasons.

Proposed changes in the higher income tax band will not happen. Govt expenditure will increase as a result of Brexit, property prices will most likely stagnate as people will have less money to purchase with, developers will be less likely to build to sell to individuals as individuals will not have access to the funds needed to make it viable for the developers. The help to buy probably will be extended.

I suspect build to rent will increase and the Govt will give tax incentives to assist this model to help ease the housing crisis. The govt needs to deal with the legacy mortgage defaulters due to the pressure the Banks are facing from the ECB regarding their non performing loans. With an election looming this is a thorny issue no politician wants to grasp.

The ordinary person on the street is the one who I expect to suffer the most. Unless you have cash to buy outright, or are in a very very secure job I think anybody looking to buy a first property or trade up is in for another challenging couple of years.

ELM327 · 01-02-2019 3:08pm

Brexit is currently an unquantified risk. That's the worst thing for a market to price in.
Once the inevitable happens and they extend article 50 ad infinitum and don't leave (or leave but stay in customs union + single market) then all of the above post from The Student will be shown for the scaremongering bunkum that it is.

devlinio · 02-02-2019 1:03pm

I won't be buying for a few years, but at what income level would you be granted a wage to mortgage salary exemption.

Property Market 2019

Comments