Brexit Discussion Thread VI

tuxy · 30-01-2019 11:35PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

No, that was much later. When he picked up the transport portfolio iirc.

This was reported on the 8th of Novemever by many news outlets

Dominic Raab has come under fire for saying he "hadn't quite understood" how reliant UK trade in goods is on the Dover-Calais crossing.

He then resigned on the 15th November.

Irish Praetorian · 30-01-2019 11:37PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

A peoples vote if took again would be to Leave, I have no doubt. It's what the EU is hoping for, but it would be Leave. There is enough people who just don't care, and have nothing to lose, they will get their benefits regardless.
Remain would need to gain 2m votes, I dunno where they get them, maybe from those who turned 18 since 2016.

I'm sorry but what is this based on? I've been consuming the polling of the UK population post-referendum to try and track their attitudes on the issue and this seems to fly in the face of that data.

Broadly speaking, people seemed to be on-board with Brexit up until roughly the period between the invocation of Article 50 and the 2017 General Election. Since that point, polls showing a lead for Brexit being the 'Right' decision or polls showing a 'Leave' vote in a hypothetical second referendum, have been pretty rare. Moreover the nature of that polling is also changing, with a fairly close toss-up in previous months being replaced with stronger leads for 'Wrong' or 'Remain' in the past year or so.

I coudln't help but observe this during the recent 'Question Time' flare-up, when some controversy emerged over the raucous response Isabel Oakeshott received for delivering the usual 'leave means leave' schtick - it was loud, but if you actually look in the audience, maybe half (if generous) were cheering; I think the Leave crowd might be getting nosier, not more numerous.

J Mysterio · 30-01-2019 11:37PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

One could also argue that Scotland entered a union with England of its own accord, which has been overwhelmingly successful. One could also argue that Scotland played an incredibly influential role in the expansion and maintenance of empire. Further, one could argue that the heyday of empire was not the 1700s, but the decades between the world wars when it was at its largest territorially and economically. One can argue all these things if they study history and don’t fabricate a counternarrative.

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

I really understand this will go down like a lead balloon here, but it’s not a post like many other ‘leavers’ (I guess that’s what I am now) intended to take the conversation down into the gutter.

I understand your frustration and have some sympathy, but it is your government and politicians who have let you down.

micosoft · 30-01-2019 11:47PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yes, but they won't be offering them in a hurry. Far better to sit back and let all would-be protected industry and agriculture wither and die and then be faced with no protectionism to hold them back.

Let's not forget that both China and India remember the last "trade deal" they were forced at gunpoint to sign by the British. They have long memories and they have already made it clear that they don't care for May's red lines - they want visa's and one sided market access (see the awful Swiss deal with China).

As for Trump. Lol. He needs a win. The greatest trade deal for America means crushing the UK. Chlorinated Chickens here we come.

briany · 30-01-2019 11:49PM

Surely the solution, or compromise if you like, is to include in the withdrawal deal not a backstop outright, but a pledge to hold a referendum in Northern Ireland on whether to accept the backstop. In all the hoopla over the backstop, the voice of the Northern Irish people themselves has been kind of pushed into the background in the debate because all I ever see is politicians arguing on the matter. If we're going to undermine the GFA one way or another, it would be best to have the impetus come from at least some of those who voted on it in the first place. This would take the wind out of any political football being made of the issue.

The only question would be getting cross-party support for such a deal, thereby nullifying the DUP's inevitable dissenting voice.

eagle eye · 30-01-2019 11:50PM

Charles Babbage wrote:

DO you realise that one side up there call themselves nationalists?

Yes and I realise there are two sides or even three. The third side being ordinary decent people who want to live comfortable, loving lives and bring their kids up in a peaceful society.
No border means peace, a hard border means troubles.
An attempt to move away from the UK means troubles.

J Mysterio · 30-01-2019 11:53PM

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

If there is No agreement by the 29th March. On the 30th I’m curious what the UK looks like with the “ WTF just happened “ head on there shoulders

They prepare for April Fools Day and pretend it was all a joke.

FrancieBrady · 30-01-2019 11:53PM

micosoft wrote: »

Let's not forget that both China and India remember the last "trade deal" they were forced at gunpoint to sign by the British. They have long memories and they have already made it clear that they don't care for May's red lines - they want visa's and one sided market access (see the awful Swiss deal with China).

As for Trump. Lol. He needs a win. The greatest trade deal for America means crushing the UK. Chlorinated Chickens here we come.

The US are already looking for a lowering of food standards even before official talks begin

WomanSkirtFan8 · 30-01-2019 11:55PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

No, it won't. It will lead to NI leaving the UK. In fact, likely there won't be a UK.

More than likely not indeed. What we're witnessing here folks, it the slowly, angonising death of what was the UK. And the really sad and tragic thing is that it's been killed off by a large portion of its own population.

Also, does any brexiteer really think or believe that people in NI of both communities who suffered over 30 years of violent and brutal conflict would ever want to go back to those dark days again? I find it incredibly hard to believe that anyone who did would want that hell again.

Let's remember over 3, 500 people died in that awful, horrible conflict the likes of which I and many others on here and elsewhere do not want to ever have to see again.

:rolleyes:

downcow · 30-01-2019 11:55PM

This is a very fair little video I reckon. Worth a few minutes of your time if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfI5on5n84&feature=share

FrancieBrady · 30-01-2019 11:56PM

briany wrote: »

Surely the solution, or compromise if you like, is to include in the withdrawal deal not a backstop outright, but a pledge to hold a referendum in Northern Ireland on whether to accept the backstop. In all the hoopla over the backstop, the voice of the Northern Irish people themselves has been kind of pushed into the background in the debate because all I ever see is politicians arguing on the matter. If we're going to undermine the GFA one way or another, it would be best to have the impetus come from at least some of those who voted on it in the first place. This would take the wind out of any political football being made of the issue.

The only question would be getting cross-party support for such a deal, thereby nullifying the DUP's inevitable dissenting voice.

Because that in itself could become a bargaining chip. This needs to be sorted before trade talks begin.

The 'people' have already said they wish to remain in the EU and there is no sign that has diminished.

Larbre34 · 31-01-2019 12:09AM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Also, does any brexiteer really think or believe that people in NI of both communities who suffered over 30 years of violent and brutal conflict would ever want to go back to those dark days again? I find it incredibly hard to believe that anyone who did would want that hell again.

I cant speak for 10s of millions of folk who apparently wished to leave, but what is evident from so many of the pro-brexit talking heads, politicians, columnists, business sector is that they neither know much about the troubles nor care about finding out or what the inextricable consequences of setbacks in N.I. Same goes for the right wing tabloids.

In fact, they don't seem to give a **** for much beyond themselves. That kind of apathy is as dismal as it is frightening.

ARNOLD J RIMMER · 31-01-2019 12:12AM

downcow wrote: »

This is a very fair little video I reckon. Worth a few minutes of your time if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfI5on5n84&feature=share

Even at the end of your simple video it says that TM and the UK need to come up with a solution. Or did you not make it that far?

FrancieBrady · 31-01-2019 12:13AM

downcow wrote: »

This is a very fair little video I reckon. Worth a few minutes of your time if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfI5on5n84&feature=share

It is everyone's responsibility and almost everyone has stepped up to the plate and negotiated in good faith and reached a deal. That 'deal' has been welched on with nothing to replace it only a concoction of nebulous stuff that has already been rejected in the negotiations.

Infini · 31-01-2019 12:17AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes and I realise there are two sides or even three. The third side being ordinary decent people who want to live comfortable, loving lives and bring their kids up in a peaceful society.
No border means peace, a hard border means troubles.
An attempt to move away from the UK means troubles.

This is why there's the option of a border poll to allow NI as a whole to DECIDE what to do. They voted remain and the Brexiteers with DUP are happy to throw the whole province under the bus as it suits them. The ultimate issue and cause of all this is Brexit end of story. If A50 is cancelled at the last minute the whole UI issue goes back to sleep and is frozen and the status quo resumes. If they truly crash out willingly this leaves NI outside the EU, cut off from trade and devastated locally.

The simple truth is that there's going to be trouble no matter what if the UK crashes out the 29th because thats when the 2 issues become irreconcilable and the ONLY way this will get resolved is by having a poll to decide this whole issue once and for all as quite simply Westminster will have failed them and be shown to be incapable of being able to. This means informing people of BOTH sides equally and fairly and letting those who are currently part of the unionist community that they aren't going to be simply thrown under the bus as part of a UI unlike how Westminster and their DUP lackeys were happy to.

That's the key if there's a poll give them information what a UI looks like, how they're represented, what opportunities they get because lets face it they have far more representation in the DAIL proportionate wise unlike in Westminster where they're tiny in comparison. Let's also remember if this happens should Britain crash out the benefits of being in a UI will likely outweigh being shackled to a failing and incompetent UK that forced them to choose simply by crashing out and not giving a damn about them. This isnt 50 years ago either religion in this country is a shadow in terms of influence thanks to the kiddy fidling and women bashing scandals and laws at national and EU level protect against discrimination (the EU ones the UK seem happy to take away from them which a UI gives them back btw.)

WomanSkirtFan8 · 31-01-2019 12:27AM

Larbre34 wrote: »

I cant speak for 10s of millions of folk who apparently wished to leave, but what is evident from so many of the pro-brexit talking heads, politicians, columnists, business sector is that they neither know much about the troubles nor care about finding out or what the inextricable consequences of setbacks in N.I. Same goes for the right wing tabloids.

In fact, they don't seem to give a **** for much beyond themselves. That kind of apathy is as dismal as it is frightening.

I agree. Their absolute ignorance and arrogance is just beyond belief. Never seen anything like it lads.

J Mysterio · 31-01-2019 12:29AM

RE: Raab.. Apparently he accused the Taoiseach of 'directly' leaking to Daily Telegraph and Financial Times a conversation he had with Coveney. BBC article on this here:

Leo Varadkar leaked Brexit conversation says Dominic Raab

There is a more recent article in the Irish Times with this:

A spokesman for Mr Coveney said Mr Raab is “badly mistaken”.

“He was left in no doubt by the Tánaiste on the night that his idea for a time-limited backstop wasn’t a runner,” the spokesman said.

“We made no details of the content of the meeting public and his theory of the Taoiseach leaking his bad idea to major British papers is off the wall.”

downcow · 31-01-2019 12:29AM

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

Even at the end of your simple video is says that TM and the UK need to come up with a solution. Or did you not make it that far?

Why do you feel the need to be so condescending?

briany · 31-01-2019 12:42AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because that in itself could become a bargaining chip. This needs to be sorted before trade talks begin.

The 'people' have already said they wish to remain in the EU and there is no sign that has diminished.

The question posed to the people of Northern Ireland 2 1/2 years ago was whether they wished to leave the EU along with the rest of the UK.

The question I'm posing would be similar, but different, because I'm talking about the people of NI choosing whether or not to accept staying in alignment with the SM/CU, in contrast to the rest of the UK which would be leaving those institutions. So, it would be asking the people of NI to accept a very significant state of otherness from the rest of the UK. Not a question that was posed in 2016.

FrancieBrady · 31-01-2019 12:43AM

downcow wrote: »

Why do you feel the need to be so condescending?

Well you clearly didn't make it that far, when you prefaced the video with

downcow wrote:

if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out

ancapailldorcha · 31-01-2019 12:45AM

downcow wrote: »

This is a very fair little video I reckon. Worth a few minutes of your time if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfI5on5n84&feature=share

Mod: Please don't just dump videos here without any sort of opinion on its contents. While we're at it you can stop expecting people to spoonfeed you regarding May's red lines. Google it. Any more of this and you will be banned.

Anthracite · 31-01-2019 12:45AM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

I agree with a lot of what you post, but this is nonsense.

The British public voted for lumps of ****. This is enitirely their choice and nothing to do with the EU. The only question now is what flavour.

Strazdas · 31-01-2019 12:47AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

RE: Raab.. Apparently he accused the Taoiseach of 'directly' leaking to Daily Telegraph and Financial Times a conversation he had with Coveney. BBC article on this here:

Leo Varadkar leaked Brexit conversation says Dominic Raab

There is a more recent article in the Irish Times with this:

A spokesman for Mr Coveney said Mr Raab is “badly mistaken”.

“He was left in no doubt by the Tánaiste on the night that his idea for a time-limited backstop wasn’t a runner,” the spokesman said.

“We made no details of the content of the meeting public and his theory of the Taoiseach leaking his bad idea to major British papers is off the wall.”

That part indeed sounds bonkers. The idea of the Taoiseach leaking sensitive info to the Daily Telegraph of all newspapers is ludicrous (the Telegraph utterly despise him and it sounds far more like something May and her No.10 advisers would do).

FrancieBrady · 31-01-2019 12:51AM

briany wrote: »

The question posed to the people of Northern Ireland 2 1/2 years ago was whether they wished to leave the EU along with the rest of the UK.

The question I'm posing would be similar, but different, because I'm talking about the people of NI choosing whether or not to accept staying in alignment with the SM/CU, in contrast to the rest of the UK which would be leaving those institutions. So, it would be asking the people of NI to accept a very significant state of otherness from the rest of the UK. Not a question that was posed in 2016.

That is an internal matter for the UK to sort out before they come to trade talks. They have stood down any objections from Scotland who also voted to remain.
They agreed to the backstop but because the DUP threatened the government they welched on that deal. And there is your problem and it will remain 'the problem' until the UK decides to face it down.
Meanwhile we (the EU) need a legal guarantee.

ARNOLD J RIMMER · 31-01-2019 12:52AM

downcow wrote: »

Why do you feel the need to be so condescending?

You said it was a simple video. At the end of your video was a simple statement which I posted.

I have seen from your posts that you believe the EU should take the UK’s word that we don’t need the backstop as a gentleman’s agreement.

The EU has lost all trust in the UK of keeping to agreements as they have backtracked twice.

IMO to resolve all of this is for a No Deal brexit.

This will allow both NI and Scotland to hold referendums to decide there own futures.

c.p.w.g.w · 31-01-2019 12:58AM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Why should the EU offer anything. The UK negotiated the WA....they already had their chance. Now its take it or leave it.

As for people thinking London is interested in the GF agreement....cop on. They are so self centered in this that it was never an issue for them. They dont care about Northern Ireland and if May didnt need the DUP she would have binned NI already. Like the UK has nothing to offer the EU, NI has nothing to offer the UK.

London doesn't even care about areas within England such as newcastle, why would it care about northern Ireland without the DUP

Capt'n Midnight · 31-01-2019 01:03AM

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/01/30/theresa-mays-win-gives-her-the-scent-of-bigger-victory-courtesy-of-labour/

re "Quite a coup, to turn a defeat by 230 votes into a victory by 15 votes in a fortnight "

In an interview after the match she delightedly explained...

"we were heavily down at half time, so after the break I changed shirts and played for the opposition. It's great to be on the winning team."

This sums up May's "mandate" so well. And the EU know it.

The ERG or DUP or a back bench revolt and her mandate is gone and all have voted against her before.

Even if you trust May, would you trust any of those likely to replace her ?
She has promised to step down at the next election, which the ERG or DUP could trigger anytime.

All explains why some sort of guarantee like the backstop is needed.

Enzokk · 31-01-2019 01:05AM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/WyndhamWallace/status/1090688723371679744

The level of ignorance and stupidity continues to impress, and frighten.

I wish he was asked about the 900 jobs from the EMA. Surely you cannot blame that on the uncertainty of Brexit. The EMA was never going to stay in the UK once they triggered article 50.

downcow wrote: »

I reckon the Eu will hold firm until after the 14th of feb and the next vote. If WM can hold its nerve in that vote then the Eu will start to shift on backstop.

How will the UK get a new deal from the EU, get a vote passed on it and then get through all the steps to get that deal written into law? They will have to apply for an extension of article 50 if they want to have enough time to turn the Withdrawal Agreement into a Act.

downcow wrote: »

Thanks that’s really helpful.
All sound very reasonable to me. Certainly a lot more reasonable than a backstop

With the GFA it is impossible to keep to her red lines. If you somehow doubt this think about the people that have been poring over the negotiations and the best they have come up with is the WA. I am not talking about the likes of Davis or Raab or May, but those civil servants that are the envy of other countries. The best they can come up with is being dismissed because some people think they know better. Brexit in a nutshell.

ARNOLD J RIMMER · 31-01-2019 01:17AM

The HoC has also given the SNP all the ammunition they need to hold a referendum.

Scotland have watched the ROI getting full support from day one by the EU and watched there own MPs who have been completely ignored in the Brexit debate in the HoC

Capt'n Midnight · 31-01-2019 01:18AM

Midlife wrote: »

We're now the only English speaking country in Europe.

That's going to come in handy...until Scotland joins that is.

Malta also drive on our side of the road, or in the shade depending on hot it is.

Scotland won't be joining the EU anytime soon.
But could probably join EEA / EFTA tomorrow and stay in the CTA.

A lot less crossings and nowhere near the security level needed so some sort of low friction techno border might have a better chance.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/E-8-2017-003658-ASW_EN.html

According to article 342 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, it is for the Council, acting unanimously, to determine the rules governing the languages of the institutions of the Union.

Today, English is one of the 24 official and working languages of the European Union institutions. The Commission notes that, besides the United Kingdom, Ireland and Malta have English as an official language.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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