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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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fash

Folkstonian wrote: »

Sorry, you misunderstand. I don’t blame those two characters for the negotiations. I think they are awful and unbearable and are one of many reasons as to why leave won the referendum.

No obligation on the EU to offer Britain a good deal? Absolutely. But no reason to think that offering a selection of terrible deals will lead to anything but chaos and probably a no deal exit, either.

Sorry- I just don't accept that. There was certainly an opportunity at the start to take the opportunity to remake the EU into some Richard-North style "flexit-y" "junior and senior EU membership" - by reaching across the HOC to build a consensus between remainers and leavers and going to the EU to say "look guys, sorry about that Cameron fellow but now we've a problem here but maybe also an opportunity"

May herself and only herself squandered that opportunity with her red lines and approach to the HOC.

From her red lines, almost everything else grew - seriously, objectively what is wrong with the WA?

I assume you agree that the settlement of citizens' rights is uncontroversial.
I assume the payment +/- €10 billion is uncontroversial.
I assume you also agree that given UK lack of agreement, the political statement as to the future as well as the concept of a transition period (if not the duration) are also uncontroversial.
That only leaves the backstop - how would you propose to fix it?
I think it is fair enough to argue that it should have dealt with later as part of the final agreement - with only general principles or rough reassurances given at this point as to the direction of play - and of course had a "close to Europe" solution been sought, no backstop would have been required . But the problem on that is that once the UK accepted it otherwise and especially once the UK/Gove (pretty much the very next day) said "ha, ha fingers crossed"- the backstop was going to be nailed down tight.

Again, sorry but from my perspective that is almost entirely due to. the UK government incompetence, untrustworthiness and bad faith.

I can understand you having a general sympathy for the UK but I see almost no scope to blame the EU - although I would be really interested in hearing your view.

MrMusician18

Ray Bassett has an article in the Telegraph advocating again for an Irish exit from the EU.

I don't really understand what this guys game is. A former diplomat whose position couldn't be further away from a long standing government policy? Is he just a troll? An agitator? Or did someone in DFA piss in his cornflakes? Or something else?

I wonder how his former colleagues in the DFA would describe him (off the record of course)

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Polish government appears to be acting like a thorn in Ireland's side.

Thankfully they don't have much credibility with the EU as a government.

Meh. The Poles have form here, making statements now and then that seen to offer encouragement to Brexity types in the UK, but then studiously looking at teh floor when the issue is raised in the European Council and the Brits llok pleadingly at them. The UK would be foolish to expect any meaningful follow-through from the Poles here.

And I don't think the Polish psoition here is driven by animus towards Ireland. As far as the Poles are concerned, the big Brexit issue is the 900,000 Poles who live and work in the UK, the remittances they send back to Poland (which are considerable) and the continued ability of Poles to move to and work in the UK. This dwarfs any feelings they may have about extraditions from Ireland.

J Mysterio

Varadkar was interviewed by Shona Murray for Euronews. He spoke well. Clear, considered, logical and fair...

AtomicHorror

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Polish government appears to be acting like a thorn in Ireland's side.

Thankfully they don't have much credibility with the EU as a government.

They clearly don't like us. What we could possibly have done to offend their homophobic, pro-life government is beyond me.

Kermit.de.frog

The Polish government appears to be acting like a thorn in Ireland's side.

Thankfully they don't have much credibility with the EU as a government.

AtomicHorror

Enzokk wrote: »

I wish he was asked about the 900 jobs from the EMA. Surely you cannot blame that on the uncertainty of Brexit. The EMA was never going to stay in the UK once they triggered article 50.

And as a further direct consequence, pharma and research companies who established drug safety, regulatory affairs and quality assurance departments in the UK to be close to EMA for training, information, meetings etc. will also start to move people or make them redundant. The legal heads of drug safety (QPPVs) will no longer be allowed to legally reside in the UK and retain that role.

This was also not in any doubt- EMA was going to leave in any Brexit scenario, and so were EMA-facing pharma people.

Side note, proximity of EMA to Dublin used to be an advantage for locating those kinds of pharma staff there too. Going to an EMA seminar could be a day trip if you flew into London City airport. So, not great for us either.

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yes, I think so.
I think they are abrasive and hugely dislikesble (and disliked, in reality)
Leaving aside whether you think that’s right or not, do you disagree that dislike for the individuals at the top of the pyramid in Europe didn’t play any part in the outcome?

I 100% don't.

Why? Because I think you along with many Brits never heard of them before the last 12 months or so

The referendum won on lies and none were related to the two lads it was about fake finances and fake Turkey and fake immigration.

The pretence that the average Brit knows who tusk junker or anyone else in the top positions in the EU are is a laughable premise.

I scoff at that.

Capt'n Midnight

Midlife wrote: »

We're now the only English speaking country in Europe.

That's going to come in handy...until Scotland joins that is.

Malta also drive on our side of the road, or in the shade depending on hot it is.

Scotland won't be joining the EU anytime soon.
But could probably join EEA / EFTA tomorrow and stay in the CTA.

A lot less crossings and nowhere near the security level needed so some sort of low friction techno border might have a better chance.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/E-8-2017-003658-ASW_EN.html

According to article 342 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, it is for the Council, acting unanimously, to determine the rules governing the languages of the institutions of the Union.

Today, English is one of the 24 official and working languages of the European Union institutions. The Commission notes that, besides the United Kingdom, Ireland and Malta have English as an official language.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

The HoC has also given the SNP all the ammunition they need to hold a referendum.

Scotland have watched the ROI getting full support from day one by the EU and watched there own MPs who have been completely ignored in the Brexit debate in the HoC

Enzokk

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/WyndhamWallace/status/1090688723371679744

The level of ignorance and stupidity continues to impress, and frighten.

I wish he was asked about the 900 jobs from the EMA. Surely you cannot blame that on the uncertainty of Brexit. The EMA was never going to stay in the UK once they triggered article 50.

downcow wrote: »

I reckon the Eu will hold firm until after the 14th of feb and the next vote. If WM can hold its nerve in that vote then the Eu will start to shift on backstop.

How will the UK get a new deal from the EU, get a vote passed on it and then get through all the steps to get that deal written into law? They will have to apply for an extension of article 50 if they want to have enough time to turn the Withdrawal Agreement into a Act.

downcow wrote: »

Thanks that’s really helpful.
All sound very reasonable to me. Certainly a lot more reasonable than a backstop

With the GFA it is impossible to keep to her red lines. If you somehow doubt this think about the people that have been poring over the negotiations and the best they have come up with is the WA. I am not talking about the likes of Davis or Raab or May, but those civil servants that are the envy of other countries. The best they can come up with is being dismissed because some people think they know better. Brexit in a nutshell.

Capt'n Midnight

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/01/30/theresa-mays-win-gives-her-the-scent-of-bigger-victory-courtesy-of-labour/

re "Quite a coup, to turn a defeat by 230 votes into a victory by 15 votes in a fortnight "

In an interview after the match she delightedly explained...

"we were heavily down at half time, so after the break I changed shirts and played for the opposition. It's great to be on the winning team."

This sums up May's "mandate" so well. And the EU know it.

The ERG or DUP or a back bench revolt and her mandate is gone and all have voted against her before.

Even if you trust May, would you trust any of those likely to replace her ?
She has promised to step down at the next election, which the ERG or DUP could trigger anytime.

All explains why some sort of guarantee like the backstop is needed.

c.p.w.g.w

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Why should the EU offer anything. The UK negotiated the WA....they already had their chance. Now its take it or leave it.

As for people thinking London is interested in the GF agreement....cop on. They are so self centered in this that it was never an issue for them. They dont care about Northern Ireland and if May didnt need the DUP she would have binned NI already. Like the UK has nothing to offer the EU, NI has nothing to offer the UK.

London doesn't even care about areas within England such as newcastle, why would it care about northern Ireland without the DUP

ARNOLD J RIMMER

downcow wrote: »

Why do you feel the need to be so condescending?

You said it was a simple video. At the end of your video was a simple statement which I posted.

I have seen from your posts that you believe the EU should take the UK’s word that we don’t need the backstop as a gentleman’s agreement.

The EU has lost all trust in the UK of keeping to agreements as they have backtracked twice.

IMO to resolve all of this is for a No Deal brexit.

This will allow both NI and Scotland to hold referendums to decide there own futures.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

The question posed to the people of Northern Ireland 2 1/2 years ago was whether they wished to leave the EU along with the rest of the UK.

The question I'm posing would be similar, but different, because I'm talking about the people of NI choosing whether or not to accept staying in alignment with the SM/CU, in contrast to the rest of the UK which would be leaving those institutions. So, it would be asking the people of NI to accept a very significant state of otherness from the rest of the UK. Not a question that was posed in 2016.

That is an internal matter for the UK to sort out before they come to trade talks. They have stood down any objections from Scotland who also voted to remain.
They agreed to the backstop but because the DUP threatened the government they welched on that deal. And there is your problem and it will remain 'the problem' until the UK decides to face it down.
Meanwhile we (the EU) need a legal guarantee.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

RE: Raab.. Apparently he accused the Taoiseach of 'directly' leaking to Daily Telegraph and Financial Times a conversation he had with Coveney. BBC article on this here:

Leo Varadkar leaked Brexit conversation says Dominic Raab

There is a more recent article in the Irish Times with this:

A spokesman for Mr Coveney said Mr Raab is “badly mistaken”.

“He was left in no doubt by the Tánaiste on the night that his idea for a time-limited backstop wasn’t a runner,” the spokesman said.

“We made no details of the content of the meeting public and his theory of the Taoiseach leaking his bad idea to major British papers is off the wall.”

That part indeed sounds bonkers. The idea of the Taoiseach leaking sensitive info to the Daily Telegraph of all newspapers is ludicrous (the Telegraph utterly despise him and it sounds far more like something May and her No.10 advisers would do).

Anthracite

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

I agree with a lot of what you post, but this is nonsense.

The British public voted for lumps of ****. This is enitirely their choice and nothing to do with the EU. The only question now is what flavour.

ancapailldorcha

downcow wrote: »

This is a very fair little video I reckon. Worth a few minutes of your time if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfI5on5n84&feature=share

Mod: Please don't just dump videos here without any sort of opinion on its contents. While we're at it you can stop expecting people to spoonfeed you regarding May's red lines. Google it. Any more of this and you will be banned.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Why do you feel the need to be so condescending?

Well you clearly didn't make it that far, when you prefaced the video with

downcow wrote:

if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because that in itself could become a bargaining chip. This needs to be sorted before trade talks begin.

The 'people' have already said they wish to remain in the EU and there is no sign that has diminished.

The question posed to the people of Northern Ireland 2 1/2 years ago was whether they wished to leave the EU along with the rest of the UK.

The question I'm posing would be similar, but different, because I'm talking about the people of NI choosing whether or not to accept staying in alignment with the SM/CU, in contrast to the rest of the UK which would be leaving those institutions. So, it would be asking the people of NI to accept a very significant state of otherness from the rest of the UK. Not a question that was posed in 2016.

downcow

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

Even at the end of your simple video is says that TM and the UK need to come up with a solution. Or did you not make it that far?

Why do you feel the need to be so condescending?

J Mysterio

RE: Raab.. Apparently he accused the Taoiseach of 'directly' leaking to Daily Telegraph and Financial Times a conversation he had with Coveney. BBC article on this here:

Leo Varadkar leaked Brexit conversation says Dominic Raab

There is a more recent article in the Irish Times with this:

A spokesman for Mr Coveney said Mr Raab is “badly mistaken”.

“He was left in no doubt by the Tánaiste on the night that his idea for a time-limited backstop wasn’t a runner,” the spokesman said.

“We made no details of the content of the meeting public and his theory of the Taoiseach leaking his bad idea to major British papers is off the wall.”

WomanSkirtFan8

Larbre34 wrote: »

I cant speak for 10s of millions of folk who apparently wished to leave, but what is evident from so many of the pro-brexit talking heads, politicians, columnists, business sector is that they neither know much about the troubles nor care about finding out or what the inextricable consequences of setbacks in N.I. Same goes for the right wing tabloids.

In fact, they don't seem to give a **** for much beyond themselves. That kind of apathy is as dismal as it is frightening.

I agree. Their absolute ignorance and arrogance is just beyond belief. Never seen anything like it lads.

Infini

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes and I realise there are two sides or even three. The third side being ordinary decent people who want to live comfortable, loving lives and bring their kids up in a peaceful society.
No border means peace, a hard border means troubles.
An attempt to move away from the UK means troubles.

This is why there's the option of a border poll to allow NI as a whole to DECIDE what to do. They voted remain and the Brexiteers with DUP are happy to throw the whole province under the bus as it suits them. The ultimate issue and cause of all this is Brexit end of story. If A50 is cancelled at the last minute the whole UI issue goes back to sleep and is frozen and the status quo resumes. If they truly crash out willingly this leaves NI outside the EU, cut off from trade and devastated locally.

The simple truth is that there's going to be trouble no matter what if the UK crashes out the 29th because thats when the 2 issues become irreconcilable and the ONLY way this will get resolved is by having a poll to decide this whole issue once and for all as quite simply Westminster will have failed them and be shown to be incapable of being able to. This means informing people of BOTH sides equally and fairly and letting those who are currently part of the unionist community that they aren't going to be simply thrown under the bus as part of a UI unlike how Westminster and their DUP lackeys were happy to.

That's the key if there's a poll give them information what a UI looks like, how they're represented, what opportunities they get because lets face it they have far more representation in the DAIL proportionate wise unlike in Westminster where they're tiny in comparison. Let's also remember if this happens should Britain crash out the benefits of being in a UI will likely outweigh being shackled to a failing and incompetent UK that forced them to choose simply by crashing out and not giving a damn about them. This isnt 50 years ago either religion in this country is a shadow in terms of influence thanks to the kiddy fidling and women bashing scandals and laws at national and EU level protect against discrimination (the EU ones the UK seem happy to take away from them which a UI gives them back btw.)

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

This is a very fair little video I reckon. Worth a few minutes of your time if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfI5on5n84&feature=share

It is everyone's responsibility and almost everyone has stepped up to the plate and negotiated in good faith and reached a deal. That 'deal' has been welched on with nothing to replace it only a concoction of nebulous stuff that has already been rejected in the negotiations.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

downcow wrote: »

This is a very fair little video I reckon. Worth a few minutes of your time if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfI5on5n84&feature=share

Even at the end of your simple video it says that TM and the UK need to come up with a solution. Or did you not make it that far?

Larbre34

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Also, does any brexiteer really think or believe that people in NI of both communities who suffered over 30 years of violent and brutal conflict would ever want to go back to those dark days again? I find it incredibly hard to believe that anyone who did would want that hell again.

I cant speak for 10s of millions of folk who apparently wished to leave, but what is evident from so many of the pro-brexit talking heads, politicians, columnists, business sector is that they neither know much about the troubles nor care about finding out or what the inextricable consequences of setbacks in N.I. Same goes for the right wing tabloids.

In fact, they don't seem to give a **** for much beyond themselves. That kind of apathy is as dismal as it is frightening.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

Surely the solution, or compromise if you like, is to include in the withdrawal deal not a backstop outright, but a pledge to hold a referendum in Northern Ireland on whether to accept the backstop. In all the hoopla over the backstop, the voice of the Northern Irish people themselves has been kind of pushed into the background in the debate because all I ever see is politicians arguing on the matter. If we're going to undermine the GFA one way or another, it would be best to have the impetus come from at least some of those who voted on it in the first place. This would take the wind out of any political football being made of the issue.

The only question would be getting cross-party support for such a deal, thereby nullifying the DUP's inevitable dissenting voice.

Because that in itself could become a bargaining chip. This needs to be sorted before trade talks begin.

The 'people' have already said they wish to remain in the EU and there is no sign that has diminished.

downcow

This is a very fair little video I reckon. Worth a few minutes of your time if you are doubting that this is everyone’s responsibility to sort out
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfI5on5n84&feature=share

WomanSkirtFan8

Charles Babbage wrote: »

No, it won't. It will lead to NI leaving the UK. In fact, likely there won't be a UK.

More than likely not indeed. What we're witnessing here folks, it the slowly, angonising death of what was the UK. And the really sad and tragic thing is that it's been killed off by a large portion of its own population.

Also, does any brexiteer really think or believe that people in NI of both communities who suffered over 30 years of violent and brutal conflict would ever want to go back to those dark days again? I find it incredibly hard to believe that anyone who did would want that hell again.

Let's remember over 3, 500 people died in that awful, horrible conflict the likes of which I and many others on here and elsewhere do not want to ever have to see again.

:rolleyes: