Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Folkstonian · 30-01-2019 10:56PM

Hurrache wrote: »

But re-read that. It makes no sense. The whole of the UK voted leave partly because of two individuals in the EU? If that's one of the reasons Leave won the UK has much much bigger problems than Brexit coming their way.

Yes, I think so.
I think they are abrasive and hugely dislikesble (and disliked, in reality)
Leaving aside whether you think that’s right or not, do you disagree that dislike for the individuals at the top of the pyramid in Europe didn’t play any part in the outcome?

First Up · 30-01-2019 10:56PM

eagle eye wrote:

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly. They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.

They are entirely welcome to do this and I think they need to get on with it. For starters they'll need deals to replace some of the 44% of exports they send to the EU and also replace the trade agreements that they enjoy as part of the EU but with 10% of the negotiating leverage.

I'd advise them against starting a trade war though but by all means talk tough if it makes you feel better.

Midlife · 30-01-2019 10:56PM

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

We're now the only English speaking country in Europe.

That's going to come in handy...until Scotland joins that is.

J Mysterio · 30-01-2019 10:56PM

Midlife wrote: »

My basic stance on Brexit is this:

It could have been done well, it might even have made economic sense long term. Noway, Switzerland etc all do fine.

However, the approach by the UK has been a disaster. You have four quarters who won't agree on the same thing so they can't tell anyone what they want.

At this stage, the EU is correct. They negotiated a deal with a UK team. That deal was rejected by the UK. What kind of clowning is that? What are they expected to do but negotiate with the negotiators?

Britian have ****ed this up massivly by not being United. Shame on their politicians. They will have literally killed British people through their ineptitude.

But the thing that makes me furious at the back of it all is the hipocrasy of the rationale by some for Brexit. The same Tories who shut down local businesses, closed local industries and broke up local communities with Tatchernomics and then brought speculators and property developers to buy up the centre of British towns and cities are now blaming Europe and foreigners for Britian not being the way it was and the squeezing of the middle class.

Meanwhile Rees Mogg and his ilk are transferring their assets abroad and shorting British companies. A significant ammount of money will be gained by some if Britian crashes out this year. But anyone below the poverty line is in big trouble.

World class scumbags.

Now you can debate different aspects of Brixit, of backstops and GFA and WA but what's above is all reality.

Britian is ****ed because their elected representatives let them down.

Great post!

prawnsambo · 30-01-2019 10:57PM

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

We have in our holes. Have you been asleep for decades? Our dependance on the UK as a trading partner has diminished gradually over the years. We export four times as much to the EU and import twice as much from the EU.

bob mcbob · 30-01-2019 10:59PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

I really understand this will go down like a lead balloon here, but it’s not a post like many other ‘leavers’ (I guess that’s what I am now) intended to take the conversation down into the gutter.

Ok since we are in a neoCake world lets turn it round to you.

Teresa May's red lines are -
- no membership of customs union
- no membership of the single market
- no freedom of movement
- no jurisdiction of ECJ

The EU agreement is based on this.

So on the basis of the above red lines, what do you feel the EU should have offered her?

prawnsambo · 30-01-2019 10:59PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

Yes, I think so.
I think they are abrasive and hugely dislikesble (and disliked, in reality)
Leaving aside whether you think that’s right or not, do you disagree that dislike for the individuals at the top of the pyramid in Europe didn’t play any part in the outcome?

It was faux dislike built on jingoistic headlines from the usual suspects.

Thargor · 30-01-2019 10:59PM

Oh my God:

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1090527294039486464

ArthurDayne · 30-01-2019 11:01PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

One could also argue that Scotland entered a union with England of its own accord, which has been overwhelmingly successful. One could also argue that Scotland played an incredibly influential role in the expansion and maintenance of empire. Further, one could argue that the heyday of empire was not the 1700s, but the decades between the world wars when it was at its largest territorially and economically. One can argue all these things if they study history and don’t fabricate a counternarrative.

I’m becoming sick of this whole process. Sick of the EU pretending it has offered Britain a fair deal at any stage. You can’t put three lumps of **** in front of someone and condemn them for not choosing any of them.

EEA - garbage, absolutely no say over the rules Britain would have to adhere to.
Back down and remain - garbage, really scares me because it will cause so many people to disengage from politics for many, many years. I don’t foresee violence, just people justifiably asking what the point of participation in democracy is.
Sick of the EU acting like it has to shoulder literally none of the responsibility for the vote to leave.
May’s deal - garbage. basically letting Europe annex part of the UK. Obviously, obviously, this was going to cause loads of sodding grief.

What a horrible time to live in. I feel so sorry for people on an individual level who are affected by this maelstrom of distrust and antsgonism. It was one of the key reasons why I was a remainer initially. But now, I have just had enough with it all.

I don’t want anyone here to think I have any bad feeling towards Ireland or it’s people. I love this place and have had such a blast living and working here. I don’t excuse or try to justify the idiocy and ineptitude of May and her negotiating team.

But my god, the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt have shown themselves up to be insufferable twats. Europe can see fit to compromise when they want to. Look at the Swiss deal, look at Norway. Huge compromises. For Britain, because they have got the arse at the shock decision to leave, it’s just the take it or leave it off the shelf aforementioned lumps of ****.

I really understand this will go down like a lead balloon here, but it’s not a post like many other ‘leavers’ (I guess that’s what I am now) intended to take the conversation down into the gutter.

My favourite bit about this post is that you point out that the EU made "huge compromises" in dealing with Switzerland / Norway, right after you also say that any offer of membership of the EEA would be "garbage".

Infini · 30-01-2019 11:01PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You are insane if you think that will ever happen. You do realise that you are talking about civil war up there if there is an attempt made to leave the UK. You do realise that one side up there call themselves Unionists?

And there's the other side called nationalist as well who are being dragged out of the EU against THEIR will. Lets also not forget the idiotic gobshíte's who thought it was a good idea to set off a car bomb in Derry the other week and act ridiculous. This come's down to one thing: British Incompetence. The key difference though is that the unionist side could find that a UI may end up being a benefit to them if the UK falls apart from such a self defeating excercise in stupidity. It might not win them all over but a few months/years of Brexit misery can certainly focus minds. The difference is NI will ultimately get to CHOOSE which option they prefer and the likelyhood of a UI is significatly possible in a Hard Brexit scenario because of it.

prawnsambo wrote: »

It takes years to complete a trade deal. NAFTA took six. The best that the UK can hope for is a quick deal with Canada and that's estimated to take at least two. Meanwhile, UK agri-food industry dies on its feet as it loses its only export market and faces punitive tariffs everywhere under WTO rules. Most models have predicted it will be gone inside two years. With no subsidies to protect it.

This is the simple truth and when it come's down to late March the UK will be forced to make the choice if they still wont accept the WA: Either they'll be forced to capitulate in the face of an economic collapse, a plunging pound, a flight on assets and cancel A50 and abandon Brexit. They'll have little other option at this point because if they willfully crash out it is literally a nightmare scenario for them for the next few years as trade deals CANNOT be done overnight they're long and exteremely slow to negotiate for a reason. The EU is likely to make some temporary exceptions but they'll be withdrawn at a moments notice at their discretion not the UK's. In this scenario they're well and truly screwed the country is likely to break apart over this.

micosoft · 30-01-2019 11:02PM

eagle eye wrote: »

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly.
They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.

What type of deals? Bad deals for the UK?
What countries?
Given the UK will be one of the only countries in the world with no trade deals how will they be in a powerful position?

The only fools are those overestimating the UK's importance. Literally everybody else - Canada, Japan have been clear that Brexit is all bad.

China and the US are licking their lips at the one sided trade deals they will force on the UK.

Beechwoodspark · 30-01-2019 11:05PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You are insane if you think that will ever happen. You do realise that you are talking about civil war up there if there is an attempt made to leave the UK. You do realise that one side up there call themselves Unionists?

It will happen whenever a border poll results in a United ireland. There won’t be civil war stop being a drama queen. However I predict that Many unionists will leave NI when it happens.

Frank Bullitt · 30-01-2019 11:05PM

micosoft wrote: »

What type of deals? Bad deals for the UK?
What countries?
Given the UK will be one of the only countries in the world with no trade deals how will they be in a powerful position?

The only fools are those overestimating the UK's importance. Literally everybody else - Canada, Japan have been clear that Brexit is all bad.

China and the US are licking their lips at the one sided trade deals they will force on the UK.

This.

Only this morning myself and a colleague were discussing how these deals will play out. The UK think they are a big player when it comes to this...they are in for a real surprise.

prawnsambo · 30-01-2019 11:06PM

micosoft wrote: »

What type of deals? Bad deals for the UK?
What countries?
Given the UK will be one of the only countries in the world with no trade deals how will they be in a powerful position?

The only fools are those overestimating the UK's importance. Literally everybody else - Canada, Japan have been clear that Brexit is all bad.

China and the US are licking their lips at the one sided trade deals they will force on the UK.

Yes, but they won't be offering them in a hurry. Far better to sit back and let all would-be protected industry and agriculture wither and die and then be faced with no protectionism to hold them back.

fly_agaric · 30-01-2019 11:06PM

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

I don't agree with that description of Ireland, doubt most people would.
We do look toward them (and possibly towards the US also) too much at times but not to extent of "nodding dogness" like putting our hand in the fire when they do it by leaving the EU.
As regards loss of lives, I really doubt it will come to that. If it does, responsibility for it lies ultimately with the UK government and its Brexit project.

(edit: re "loss of lives" was thinking of a more plausible scenario of future presence of Irish and/or UK customs at the border reinvigorating dissident republicans etc. + generating violence rather than civil war...)

First Up · 30-01-2019 11:07PM

Midlife wrote:

We're now the only English speaking country in Europe.

That's going to come in handy...until Scotland joins that is.

That point isn't lost on the IDA - or their competitors in the SDI.

lawred2 · 30-01-2019 11:07PM

eagle eye wrote: »

That is basically what we have been for years,why change now if it's going to cost the lives of innocent people?

Your self loathing is your own. No need to include the rest of us

Water John · 30-01-2019 11:07PM

Vilification of individuals seems to be part of the UK arsenal used regularly. Used to be Barnier, now Juncker and Vorsdhadt.

Professor Moriarty · 30-01-2019 11:08PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

Sorry, you misunderstand. I don’t blame those two characters for the negotiations. I think they are awful and unbearable and are one of many reasons as to why leave won the referendum.

No obligation on the EU to offer Britain a good deal? Absolutely. But no reason to think that offering a selection of terrible deals will lead to anything but chaos and probably a no deal exit, either.

Yes, but what exactly would you like the EU to offer Britain today?

ARNOLD J RIMMER · 30-01-2019 11:13PM

If there is No agreement by the 29th March. On the 30th I’m curious what the UK looks like with the “ WTF just happened “ head on there shoulders

jochenstacker · 30-01-2019 11:19PM

eagle eye wrote: »

The UK are not going to run back to Europe quickly.
They will look at making deals outside if the EU. They'll offer deals to other countries to try and place themselves in a more powerful position fir renegotiation. There is a trade war coming if there is a hard Brexit and you'll be foolish to underestimate the UK.

All this is based on the UK running cap in hand back to the EU. That's not going to happen imo.

No, what will happen is that the UK will go door to door, cap in hand, looking for trade deals anywhere they can find them.
After having proven themselves to be selfish, greedy, unreliable and untrustworthy. And now they're desperate on top of it.
And as everyone knows, international trade is a soft, cozy world that totally doesn't brutally exploit any and all weaknesses in their trade partners.
Oh yes, they will land themselves some absolutely cracking deals.
Just not cracking for them.
Only a completely deluded fool would argue otherwise.

Midlife · 30-01-2019 11:19PM

This is very telling from May yesterday

""Today we have the chance to show the European Union what it will take to get a deal through this House of Commons, what it will take to move beyond the confusion and division and uncertainty that now hangs over us," Mrs May told parliament.

"I also accept that this House does not want the deal I put before it, in the form that it currently exists. The vote was decisive and I listened. So the world knows what this House does not want. Today we need to send an emphatic message about what we do want."

British lawmakers will have the opportunity to vote on up to seven proposed changes to Mrs May's Brexit deal on Tuesday, the Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow said."

She's basically said that now her deal is firmly rejected, the Uk needs to come together and decide what deal they want.

THEY DON'T KNOW YET!!!

With 60 days to go, they haven't actually figured it out between themselves.

So how can people possibly be complaining about the EU in negotiations.

Fann Linn · 30-01-2019 11:20PM

Thargor wrote: »

Oh my God:

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1090527294039486464

The gift that just keeps giving.

BorneTobyWilde · 30-01-2019 11:21PM

A peoples vote if took again would be to Leave, I have no doubt. It's what the EU is hoping for, but it would be Leave. There is enough people who just don't care, and have nothing to lose, they will get their benefits regardless.
Remain would need to gain 2m votes, I dunno where they get them, maybe from those who turned 18 since 2016.

jochenstacker · 30-01-2019 11:25PM

Midlife wrote: »

This is very telling from May yesterday

She's basically said that now her deal is firmly rejected, the Uk needs to come together and decide what deal they want.

THEY DON'T KNOW YET!!!

With 60 days to go, they haven't actually figured it out between themselves.

So how can people possibly be complaining about the EU in negotiations.

Hard to say. Sub 50 IQ, drugs, brainwashing, severe mental illness, but most likely they know bloody well they're heading for disaster and they're steering that course deliberately and are hoping to profit from it, be it as disaster capitalist or being paid off by outside"interested parties".
So insanity or criminal intent.
I will call anyone a fool or a liar who says that there are other, legitimate reasons.

J Mysterio · 30-01-2019 11:26PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I don’t think that is quite right.

Raab quit as Brexit sec because he felt he was being sidelined by Theresa May and Olly Robbins And was completely unhappy with the withdrawal agreement, no?

Pretty sure it was also a day or two after he realised the importance of EU UK trade routes. That was embarassing.

Charles Babbage · 30-01-2019 11:29PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You are insane if you think that will ever happen. You do realise that you are talking about civil war up there if there is an attempt made to leave the UK. You do realise that one side up there call themselves Unionists?

DO you realise that one side up there call themselves nationalists?

prawnsambo · 30-01-2019 11:31PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pretty sure it was also a day or two after he realised the importance of EU UK trade routes. That was embarassing.

No, that was much later. When he picked up the transport portfolio iirc.

tuxy · 30-01-2019 11:33PM

Yes about a week after he realised the Dover-Callis crossing was important to the UK economy and two weeks before the EU27 voted on Mays deal he quits because he is not happy with the deal he spent months working on.
If he was being sidelined why did it take him five months to realise it?

ARNOLD J RIMMER · 30-01-2019 11:33PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pretty sure it was also a day or two after he realised the importance of EU UK trade routes. That was embarassing.

I never figured out how the average joe in Ireland knew this and the Brexit Sec at the time didn’t.

Mr Raab told a technology conference on Wednesday: "We want a bespoke arrangement in goods which recognises the peculiar, frankly, geographic, economic entity that is the United Kingdom.

"We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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