-14C night temp (Dublin) predicted by Accuweather for Jan 31st 2019

I like the way they sum up the 17degree drop in temperature overnight as "colder".

Itll be minus 17.7c in Markree (at least thats what I predicted in that min temp competition):P

2 degree either side of that, surely a mistake.

In-accuweather. An algorithm with no nuance. I tell everyone who mentions it to bin it and either use the local state met office or failing that, look out the window

Saw that temp forecast earlier as well. The fact it says "mostly cloudy" AND "-14c" very much points to it being an error/glitch.

From the time the OP saw this forecast, I think that it would be based on the 06z GFS run. Having a look at that, it matches the forecast if you forgot about the fact that Dublin is in Ireland and not, say, Wisconsin. There is a very cold feed from the northwest on the relevant chart (not so much on the later 12z chart) and I might predict -5 C temperatures in Ireland from that chart (thicknesses reach lower than 516 dm) with snow showers.

Perhaps the problem with the accu-weather app is that it has automated some forecast responses to charts without a complete study of the local climatology. As I said, this weather pattern would be good for -14 C in a continental climate where the arctic air was colder and not coming over a long fetch of the Atlantic.

As to what sort of temperatures to expect in reality, various model runs continue to advertise intervals of severe cold -- in Ireland, a northerly won't get you much lower than -8 C but an arctic high of any origin sitting over the country with snow cover, or a deep easterly feed, might get below -12 C as we saw in Dec 2010. This is possible this winter and it could happen on the 29th but not with the weather sequence currently shown on the 12z GFS (the Euro only goes to the 27th at the moment).

I think the bottom line is this -- when you're looking at your accu-weather app, at longer time frames, just assume it is a reading of the GFS model for that time frame and that it might not be calibrated precisely for the Irish climate, perhaps it also goes too warm in summer in given situations.

Casement got down to -15.7 °C on Christmas morning, 2010.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

From the time the OP saw this forecast, I think that it would be based on the 06z GFS run. Having a look at that, it matches the forecast if you forgot about the fact that Dublin is in Ireland and not, say, Wisconsin. There is a very cold feed from the northwest on the relevant chart (not so much on the later 12z chart) and I might predict -5 C temperatures in Ireland from that chart (thicknesses reach lower than 516 dm) with snow showers.

Perhaps the problem with the accu-weather app is that it has automated some forecast responses to charts without a complete study of the local climatology. As I said, this weather pattern would be good for -14 C in a continental climate where the arctic air was colder and not coming over a long fetch of the Atlantic.

As to what sort of temperatures to expect in reality, various model runs continue to advertise intervals of severe cold -- in Ireland, a northerly won't get you much lower than -8 C but an arctic high of any origin sitting over the country with snow cover, or a deep easterly feed, might get below -12 C as we saw in Dec 2010. This is possible this winter and it could happen on the 29th but not with the weather sequence currently shown on the 12z GFS (the Euro only goes to the 27th at the moment).

I think the bottom line is this -- when you're looking at your accu-weather app, at longer time frames, just assume it is a reading of the GFS model for that time frame and that it might not be calibrated precisely for the Irish climate, perhaps it also goes too warm in summer in given situations.

no more, accu weather, for me then

I think maybe they got the decimal point in the wrong point and -1.4 might be more ACCUrate.

That'll solve some of the homeless problem for our fine government.