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-14C night temp (Dublin) predicted by Accuweather for Jan 31st 2019

klaaaz

I was browsing the usual long range forecast for cold places like Moscow and did a double take on this for Dublin for Jan 31st

. It's far off and probably inaccurate but if true, it's a record in a very long time perhaps decades? Don't think it reached -14C in Dublin in 2009/2010 back then either.

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Lucreto

A site glitch most likely but it is inAccuweather so may be not.

Rebelbrowser

I like the way they sum up the 17degree drop in temperature overnight as "colder".

Artane2002

Glitch or not, AccuWeather is rubbish.

pauldry

Itll be minus 17.7c in Markree (at least thats what I predicted in that min temp competition):P

stevek93

Artane2002 wrote: »

Glitch or not, AccuWeather is rubbish.

What app do you use for weather?

oLoonatic

2 degree either side of that, surely a mistake.

lawred2

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I like the way they sum up the 17degree drop in temperature overnight as "colder".

And a shower..

Is that even possible at minus 14?

Larbre34

In-accuweather. An algorithm with no nuance. I tell everyone who mentions it to bin it and either use the local state met office or failing that, look out the window

hatrickpatrick

stevek93 wrote: »

What app do you use for weather?

I don't know if they have an app, but I have yr.no's hourly forecast for Dun Laoghaire and Dublin City bookmarked on my phone's Safari. Only very rarely do they get it wrong in terms of short-term rainfall over the following three days.

highdef

Saw that temp forecast earlier as well. The fact it says "mostly cloudy" AND "-14c" very much points to it being an error/glitch.

RobertKK

Based on the movie: The day after tomorrow.

EdgeCase

Definitely a glitch!
-14ºC in Dublin is way outside normal values even in an extreme cold snap.

Artane2002

stevek93 wrote: »

What app do you use for weather?

I don't use any weather apps, I just read MT and ME's forecast.

M.T. Cranium

From the time the OP saw this forecast, I think that it would be based on the 06z GFS run. Having a look at that, it matches the forecast if you forgot about the fact that Dublin is in Ireland and not, say, Wisconsin. There is a very cold feed from the northwest on the relevant chart (not so much on the later 12z chart) and I might predict -5 C temperatures in Ireland from that chart (thicknesses reach lower than 516 dm) with snow showers.

Perhaps the problem with the accu-weather app is that it has automated some forecast responses to charts without a complete study of the local climatology. As I said, this weather pattern would be good for -14 C in a continental climate where the arctic air was colder and not coming over a long fetch of the Atlantic.

As to what sort of temperatures to expect in reality, various model runs continue to advertise intervals of severe cold -- in Ireland, a northerly won't get you much lower than -8 C but an arctic high of any origin sitting over the country with snow cover, or a deep easterly feed, might get below -12 C as we saw in Dec 2010. This is possible this winter and it could happen on the 29th but not with the weather sequence currently shown on the 12z GFS (the Euro only goes to the 27th at the moment).

I think the bottom line is this -- when you're looking at your accu-weather app, at longer time frames, just assume it is a reading of the GFS model for that time frame and that it might not be calibrated precisely for the Irish climate, perhaps it also goes too warm in summer in given situations.

piuswal

klaaaz wrote: »

I was browsing the usual long range forecast for cold places like Moscow and did a double take on this for Dublin for Jan 31st . It's far off and probably inaccurate but if true, it's a record in a very long time perhaps decades? Don't think it reached -14C in Dublin in 2009/2010 back then either.

see https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/kilkenny/long.html out to 27th getting down to -3 ; -14 most unlikely, some glitch ; as someone mentioned more central continental temp

Gaoth Laidir

Casement got down to -15.7 °C on Christmas morning, 2010.

sryanbruen

stevek93 wrote: »

What app do you use for weather?

No app, they’re all rubbish and a perfect waste of your time.

John mac

this was Foxford on 22 Dec 2010

sigmundv

hatrickpatrick wrote:

I don't know if they have an app, but I have yr.no's hourly forecast for Dun Laoghaire and Dublin City bookmarked on my phone's Safari. Only very rarely do they get it wrong in terms of short-term rainfall over the following three days.

Yr.no do indeed have an app. I find it to be very accurate in the short term. Having grown up in the Faroe Islands I have learned that long-term forecasts are not of much worth in an Atlantic island climate, so I'm happy with a short-term forecast, which yr.no provide me with through their app.

goat2

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

From the time the OP saw this forecast, I think that it would be based on the 06z GFS run. Having a look at that, it matches the forecast if you forgot about the fact that Dublin is in Ireland and not, say, Wisconsin. There is a very cold feed from the northwest on the relevant chart (not so much on the later 12z chart) and I might predict -5 C temperatures in Ireland from that chart (thicknesses reach lower than 516 dm) with snow showers.

Perhaps the problem with the accu-weather app is that it has automated some forecast responses to charts without a complete study of the local climatology. As I said, this weather pattern would be good for -14 C in a continental climate where the arctic air was colder and not coming over a long fetch of the Atlantic.

As to what sort of temperatures to expect in reality, various model runs continue to advertise intervals of severe cold -- in Ireland, a northerly won't get you much lower than -8 C but an arctic high of any origin sitting over the country with snow cover, or a deep easterly feed, might get below -12 C as we saw in Dec 2010. This is possible this winter and it could happen on the 29th but not with the weather sequence currently shown on the 12z GFS (the Euro only goes to the 27th at the moment).

I think the bottom line is this -- when you're looking at your accu-weather app, at longer time frames, just assume it is a reading of the GFS model for that time frame and that it might not be calibrated precisely for the Irish climate, perhaps it also goes too warm in summer in given situations.

no more, accu weather, for me then

mrsnrub2.0

Accuweather plays an interesting part of Michael Lewis' latest book The Fifth Risk about how disorganised Trump's transition teams were and how some companies are looking out for their best interests.

You'd stay well clear of Accuweather after reading it.

Gaoth Laidir

I think maybe they got the decimal point in the wrong point and -1.4 might be more ACCUrate.

M.T. Cranium

Possibly but don't forget this was based on a GFS run two weeks ago and there was that brutal cold spell being advertised with the 510 dm thickness moving down from the northeast. I think it derailed somewhere near Murmansk in the meantime.

10fathoms

That'll solve some of the homeless problem for our fine government.