Brexit Discussion Thread VI

downcow · 26-01-2019 11:02PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Could you quote the bit of the GFA text the UK would be in breach of if they adopted the Norway model? I don't think it is in Ireland's interest to hold them in breach in any case.

No probs

“(iii) acknowledge that while a substantial section of the people in Northern Ireland share the legitimate wish of a majority of the people of the island of Ireland for a united Ireland, the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to maintain the Union and accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that it would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save with the consent of a majority of its people;“

And hence if you want to put a referendum to the people of NI as to whether we accept an agreement that contains the backstop then I’m ok with that. But I think I know the answer.

MPFGLB · 26-01-2019 11:06PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

That's something that will also bite rather hard as they've an assumption that they've some kind of political influence in the US due to a special relationship that most Americans are entirely unaware of.

However, I wouldn't say there's a deliberate ignorance, but there is a rather surprising lack of any knowledge of what is *their* history. Irish history until 1921 was fully part of British history and the Northern Ireland troubles occurred almost exclusively in the UK - Northern Ireland being part of the UK and the majority of major attacks occurring in Northern Ireland or in Britain itself.

I just find it somewhat odd that they can just sort of package it up as "over there" and nothing to do with them.

Also to be honest, on an interpersonal level there isn't huge antipathy towards the English in Ireland. I have English relatives and lots of connections to England and Scotland at various levels of my family.

Any antipathy tends to be because of what happened during the war of independence era, particularly the use of the Black and Tans and so on. That was in widespread living memory until relatively recently and those kinds of memories tend to become cultural.

Also I would say that most Irish people tend to get on very well with most English people. It's just that there is a rather obnoxious layer in an aspect of the Tory party and English nationalism that genuinely tends to rub pretty much everyone up the wrong way. They're somewhat hard to like.

But, whatever about all of the above, it's mind-boggling that a high-level current affairs presenter would be so poorly briefed.

I don't expect your average person in a pub to know much about Irish politics, anymore than your average Irish person's going to know the ins and outs of how the House of Lords works, but I would expect a leading current affairs presenter on RTE or BBC to and I would hold them to a totally different standard.

My expectation of BBC current affairs is that it should be up here at the level of a political science department in a university.
It's supposed to be a world-leading, public broadcaster at the top of its game. They've VAST resources and expertise to pull from and they're increasingly behaving like they're some cheapo tabloid.

I think it's utterly reasonable to hold the BBC to a far higher standard.

John Humpreys is beyond editorial control at the BBC ..bit like Andrew Neil and Nick Robinson .these guys are very long standing and take no direction from anyone... Humpreys and Neil are Brexiters ...Humpreys has been on holiday with David Davies...so impartiality from some of their main political journalists is not there at the BBC

In reply to the point o the EU losing several million each year on moving from one city to the next ...The UK (and Irish Gov.) have lost so much more on useless projects and tribunals down the years...not to mention poor decisions on tax and spending ..The Eu is not perfect but is looksalot healthier than Westminster at times

I am fascinated at the level of interest and insight from the Irish on Brexit..(I'm Irish living in London) .most people I know here in Britain have switched off ...Its seems a conundrum that cannot be solved given the constraints and the main players...Most sensible people have adopted the ostrich approach now.No amount of logic or debate can find reason where reason does not exist..The reply from every Brexiter is about belief and emotion ...facts are not even considered

FrancieBrady · 26-01-2019 11:08PM

downcow wrote: »

No probs

“(iii) acknowledge that while a substantial section of the people in Northern Ireland share the legitimate wish of a majority of the people of the island of Ireland for a united Ireland, the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to maintain the Union and accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that it would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save with the consent of a majority of its people;“

And hence if you want to put a referendum to the people of NI as to whether we accept an agreement that contains the backstop then I’m ok with that. But I think I know the answer.

Your attorney general (emphasis: YOURS) has said that the backstop threatens none of that.

ThePanjandrum · 26-01-2019 11:09PM

Christy42 wrote: »

On a hard Brexit will the UK follow WTO rules?

If yes and it does not impose a hard border in Northern Ireland it will in effect be giving the EU 0% tariffs on all goods. Thus by WTO rules it must give everyone 0% tariffs on everything.

If not then no one will bother reciprocating WTO rules and will charge whatever tariffs they like.

I really, really don't give a **** about the UK talking about not putting up a hard border when they refuse to put forward what they are doing in that case. Like the nonsense about the backstop while refusing to ever put forward another option that doesn't result in a hard border.

The UK is lying when it says it won't impose a hard border (as is Leo by the way). It has to put one up. There seems to be a weird game of not admitting it going on. The UK is making decisions that will make both sides put up a hard border.

(And yes the WTO will object because every country will want 0% tariffs into the UK without needing a trade deal).

There's no requirement under WTO rules to maintain a hard border between countries. If you think there is then please cite one.
Tariffs can be dealt with separately. If Ireland and the UK are able to control VAT between the two countries then they can control tariffs. Goods can be inspected on loading, unloading or before either of these happen.

Infini · 26-01-2019 11:16PM

downcow wrote: »

No probs

“(iii) acknowledge that while a substantial section of the people in Northern Ireland share the legitimate wish of a majority of the people of the island of Ireland for a united Ireland, the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to maintain the Union and accordingly, that Northern Ireland’s status as part of the United Kingdom reflects and relies upon that wish; and that it would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save with the consent of a majority of its people;“

And hence if you want to put a referendum to the people of NI as to whether we accept an agreement that contains the backstop then I’m ok with that. But I think I know the answer.

Hard Brexit predicts a majority for UI in the event of a crash out. Thats been in multiple polls on the issue. If push comes to shove over this a border poll could happen within a few months or years after Brexit depending on how bas things go.

Bit cynical · 26-01-2019 11:16PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

There's no requirement under WTO rules to maintain a hard border between countries. If you think there is then please cite one.
Tariffs can be dealt with separately. If Ireland and the UK are able to control VAT between the two countries then they can control tariffs. Goods can be inspected on loading, unloading or before either of these happen.

However the EU might require us to put up the hard border in order to make it fair with other EU countries with a land border with non-EU ones.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-01-2019 11:23PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Norn Iron ✗ -- Blocked by Unionists

The full list of stuff that NI diverges on is just crazy.

The latest addition is that the £2 limit on fixed stake gambling due to come into force in the UK on the 1st of April won't apply in NI

Spanish Eyes · 26-01-2019 11:26PM

If it comes to it check the "legitimate" HGVs South of the Border somewhere.

There will always be smuggling, but that can also be checked by Revenue for Green Diesel, cannot think of any other issue apart from drugs but that is everywhere now.

The Butter mountain is no more, and the difference in price for gargle is not worth it.

It has all to do with legitimate trading now. That's where the checks should be concentrated on. For fear of chlorinated chicken or other abominations.

We should just take it in our stride, keep the border open and do this. If necessary.

Movement of undocumented people is another matter, but sure that could happen any day of the week now too surely?

Geuze · 26-01-2019 11:26PM

Christy42 wrote: »

The UK is lying when it says it won't impose a hard border (as is Leo by the way). It has to put one up. There seems to be a weird game of not admitting it going on. The UK is making decisions that will make both sides put up a hard border.

Yes.

From day 1 I was saying that once you leave a CU, you need a customs border.

But do customs checks require physical barriers on the actual border?

Capt'n Midnight · 26-01-2019 11:27PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

There's no requirement under WTO rules to maintain a hard border between countries. If you think there is then please cite one.

Please tell us how you think the Most-favoured-nation rues would work if there isn't a border ?

Nody · 26-01-2019 11:27PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

There's no requirement under WTO rules to maintain a hard border between countries. If you think there is then please cite one.
Tariffs can be dealt with separately. If Ireland and the UK are able to control VAT between the two countries then they can control tariffs. Goods can be inspected on loading, unloading or before either of these happen.

Which point of loading/unloading exactly are you talking about for a truck driving over the Ireland/NI border? Once again you have a very strong tendency to ignore the details of your proposals exactly like the Brexiteers in the UK. What would stop me for example buying a truck load of cigarettes (reclaiming VAT in EU due to export to UK), drive over the border in NI and distribute it on the black market? Or load it in another truck and take it to UK mainland if there is no control at the border? Keeping in mind that if you remove any controls at the NI border you're also forced to remove them from any other border due to most favorable nation requirements.

Enzokk · 26-01-2019 11:33PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Could you quote the bit of the GFA text the UK would be in breach of if they adopted the Norway model? I don't think it is in Ireland's interest to hold them in breach in any case.

You have to wonder why we have had almost 18 months of negotiations over trying to keep the border open when in actual fact it is actually not mentioned in the GFA. I also wonder why May has been so vocal that she will not see regulation differences between the UK and NI, yet that is exactly what she agreed to in the WA and the backstop to ensure the border stays open. If it wasn't implied or needed surely the UK government would not have signed up to the backstop?

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I find it difficult to understand why, when Britain says it is leaving the EU but will not impose a hard border, it is breaching the GFA and endangering peace.

When Leo says that if Britain leaves he will enforce the border (or not, depending on which day it is) this is a principled move and nothing is said about the GFA and endangering peace.

You honestly don't see a problem with Theresa May saying she will take the UK out of the single market and customs union so they can negotiate their own trade deals and then saying it still won't need a border?

Maybe you can give examples of any other two countries where there are no borders without a trade deal or customs union?

ThePanjandrum · 26-01-2019 11:41PM

Enzokk wrote: »

This is the James O'Brien test to Brexiters when there is talk about sovereignty. What laws from the EU would you change that has been "forced" onto the UK?

He says that because most people do not know what laws have been added to the legislative framework. Let's ask you, name ten items of EU legislation that have altered Irish law to the benefit of your country.

With O'Brien's question, I start with the principle of the supremacy of EU law over national law, continue with various treaties, go on to policies like the Common Agricultural and Common Fisheries Policy and then go through a sample of regulations, directives and decisions taken from the EU database together with ECJ decisions. Sometimes I add breaches of the law which the EU has allowed.

Amazingly there are very few questioners who know anything about EU laws themselves.

Bit cynical · 26-01-2019 11:51PM

Enzokk wrote: »

You have to wonder why we have had almost 18 months of negotiations over trying to keep the border open when in actual fact it is actually not mentioned in the GFA.

Do you think it is, in fact, mentioned?

I also wonder why May has been so vocal that she will not see regulation differences between the UK and NI, yet that is exactly what she agreed to in the WA and the backstop to ensure the border stays open. If it wasn't implied or needed surely the UK government would not have signed up to the backstop?

I don't think she did agree to regulatory differences between NI and UK. There is an interpretation that suggests she did, but the wording is ambiguous.

ThePanjandrum · 26-01-2019 11:57PM

Enzokk wrote: »

You honestly don't see a problem with Theresa May saying she will take the UK out of the single market and customs union so they can negotiate their own trade deals and then saying it still won't need a border?

Maybe you can give examples of any other two countries where there are no borders without a trade deal or customs union?

All countries have borders and most have trade agreements through the WTO if nothing else. But if you think that Canada and the USA, for example, check every shipment on their near 9000 km border to see if it complies with the NAFTA agreement then you're deluded. The same with Russia and Kazakhstan and their near 7000 km border.

May is not suggesting having no border because there is no border, but trans-border shipments do not need to be checked at the border and countries accept that practically smuggling is going to happen.

EdgeCase · 27-01-2019 12:09AM

Have you ever crossed the US-Canada border?

They charged me tax on my shopping going back into Canada! That's how strict it is.

Crossing by car a the Peace Arch near Vancouver can take up to 2 hours in a car - typically takes 45mins - 1 hour.

ThePanjandrum · 27-01-2019 12:10AM

Nody wrote: »

Which point of loading/unloading exactly are you talking about for a truck driving over the Ireland/NI border? Once again you have a very strong tendency to ignore the details of your proposals exactly like the Brexiteers in the UK. What would stop me for example buying a truck load of cigarettes (reclaiming VAT in EU due to export to UK), drive over the border in NI and distribute it on the black market? Or load it in another truck and take it to UK mainland if there is no control at the border? Keeping in mind that if you remove any controls at the NI border you're also forced to remove them from any other border due to most favorable nation requirements.

What stops you driving the truck over to Northern Ireland or the British mainland now? Your fear of the tax authorities, that would still be there after Brexit and you are on the radar because you bought the goods in the first place. Also, you're not on the trusted carriers register so you may well be checked if you travel to the mainland or when your details are thrown up. People smuggle goods between the two countries now and they will in the future. It's nothing new.

As for the border checks, no, you don't. The WTO has no such rule. Prove me wrong, quote the rule in WTO documentation.

An Ciarraioch · 27-01-2019 12:13AM

Throwaway Sunday Times sidebar - "Britain is preparing for a state of emergency and to declare martial law in the event of disorder in a no-deal Brexit" :

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1089282356475760640

ThePanjandrum · 27-01-2019 12:13AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Have you ever crossed the US-Canada border?

They charged me tax on my shopping going back into Canada! That's how strict it is.

Crossing by car a the Peace Arch near Vancouver can take up to 2 hours in a car.

That's when you go through manned posts.

EdgeCase · 27-01-2019 12:16AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That's when you go through manned posts.

Nexus isn't even available all day it varies from 7:00am to 11:00pm and with significantly shorter hours at smaller crossings that offer it.

WicklowTiger · 27-01-2019 12:22AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Let's ask you, name ten items of EU legislation that have altered Irish law to the benefit of your country.

Challenge accepted! Well I think any gob****e, in Ireland at least, could do that….

Starting from the most obvious

1. Adoption of the Euro
2. Driving: conversion to KMs (makes sense even if the Imperial world thinks not)
3. Driving: NCT requirement (much safer cars)
4. Driving: penalty points system ( massive road deaths reduction)
5. Volumetric conversions (petrol, milk in litres, solid fuel in kgs, etc)
6. Food labelling standards
7. Customs & excise (blue lane at airports,ports)
8. Free movement, no visa requirement to go on holidays or business trips to the continent
9. Automatic free healthcare throughout the EU (EHIC card)
10. Single market for trade of goods and services

I had to go to the US for work last year. It really felt like a really foreign land, with the ESTA requirements (and paying for it!), immigration clearance, requirement to leave within a time frame, even not having a “valid zip code” checking into the hotel (used their own, never even noticed!)

I could literally move my family to France, Germany, Italy tomorrow permanently. Why would anyone walk away from that???

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 12:27AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

All countries have borders and most have trade agreements through the WTO if nothing else. But if you think that Canada and the USA, for example, check every shipment on their near 9000 km border to see if it complies with the NAFTA agreement then you're deluded.

Why do you guys keeps regurgitating this rubbish that's been debunked many times ???

Phytosanctions mean that 100% of agricultural machinery entering any NI port has to be inspected, any dirt and it's back on the next ferry.

This is what happens in Dover rignt now. if there is a hard Brexit it will have to happen to all foreign arrivals.

But any lorries arriving from a non-EU country, such as Switzerland, are subject to longer delays.

"If customs don't want to check anything, that would [still] delay the vehicle by about an hour or an hour and a half [while the driver waits for a decision]," Andrew Baxter, the managing director of the freight logistics company Europa Worldwide, told a House of Commons Committee last year.

"If customs wanted to do a documentary check, that could delay it by up to three hours, and if there was an inspection of the goods, that could delay it by up to five hours," he added.

Here's a list of the US-Canada crossings. Not a lot of them are there ? NI has ten times as many crossings in about a twentieth of the distance.

Oddly enough they also have space to list delays.
Green 0-30 minutes
Yellow 31 - 60 minutes = Customs delays of 30 minutes will bankrupt one in 10 firms, say bosses
Red over 60 minutes

CelticRambler · 27-01-2019 12:33AM

downcow wrote: »

if you want to put a referendum to the people of NI as to whether we accept an agreement that contains the backstop then I’m ok with that.

:eek: You are? What's changed since yesterday?

downcow wrote: »

I don’t believe in referendums

downcow wrote: »

I don't think referendums are a good idea
...
A dictatorship with a good dictator would be my preferred method

Also ...

downcow wrote: »

Not that i want to defend the dupers. I think you’ll find that it’s because of Sinn Fein and their abstentionist policy

I think you'll find (if you read up on the subject) that the outline of a very workable WA was agreed back in Dec 2017, one that would probably have been finalised very quickly and got the necessary support in the HoC because it would have allowed a fairly clean GBrexit and left the Paddies to sort themselves out. Unfortunately, the Democratic Unionist Paddies went mental at the thought of being singled out for favourable treatment.

You cannot blame (abstentionist) Sinn Féin for demanding that the original NI-only backstop be extended to cover the whole of the UK when that was a condition laid down only and entirely by the DUP; and in so doing, forced Theresa May into an unwinnable situation with regards to the ERG & Co.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 12:40AM

WicklowTiger wrote: »

I could literally move my family to France, Germany, Italy tomorrow permanently. Why would anyone walk away from that???

In the worst case, in Italy you'd have to register with the local town hall after three months.

Or cross a border and re-enter Italy to reset the clock and in Schengen land there's no border controls so it's an Irish solution to an Irish problem.

murphaph · 27-01-2019 01:00AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Have you ever crossed the US-Canada border?

They charged me tax on my shopping going back into Canada! That's how strict it is.

Crossing by car a the Peace Arch near Vancouver can take up to 2 hours in a car - typically takes 45mins - 1 hour.

Same. Had to surrender beer at a crossing between Vermont and Quebec. They always opened the boot there. I did cross once from Quebec into Maine without them looking in the car but there were a lot of questions that time instead. People don't realise how strict they are along that border.

EdgeCase · 27-01-2019 01:07AM

murphaph wrote: »

Same. Had to surrender beer at a crossing between Vermont and Quebec. They always opened the boot there. I did cross once from Quebec into Maine without them looking in the car but there were a lot of questions that time instead. People don't realise how strict they are along that border.

Unfortunately, in the UK media bubble and online there's a lot of confident statements based on very little real world experience of actual customs borders.

Anyone who actually gives genuine accounts of what they're really like e.g. truckers who cross other EU external frontiers, people who regularly cross the US/Canadian border and so on are just dismissed as scaremongering because someone who's no experience of any of this but will make strident statements must be taken far more seriously.

Nothing worse than informed opinions getting in the way.

I've largely given up arguing at this stage. If they're going to walk off a cliff, what can any of us do?

I'd say just prepare for a hard Brexit, reduce your exposure to GBP, UK supply chains and UK investments, batten down the hatches and hope for the best.

It seems to me that it's a lost cause.

Strazdas · 27-01-2019 01:24AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Unfortunately, in the UK media bubble and online there's a lot of confident statements based on very little real world experience of actual customs borders.

Anyone who actually gives genuine accounts of what they're really like e.g. truckers who cross other EU external frontiers, people who regularly cross the US/Canadian border and so on are just dismissed as scaremongering because someone who's no experience of any of this but will make strident statements must be taken far more seriously.

Nothing worse than informed opinions getting in the way.

I've largely given up arguing at this stage. If they're going to walk off a cliff, what can any of us do?

I'd say just prepare for a hard Brexit, reduce your exposure to GBP, UK supply chains and UK investments, batten down the hatches and hope for the best.

It seems to me that it's a lost cause.

I agree that there is a real danger of No Deal. The Brexiteers simply cannot 'do' Brexit successfully but they and the 17m voters are too arrogant to admit the thing is a disaster and a failure and they will sooner crash the economy.

The one bit of hope I have is that they would be forced back to the negotiating table within days with their tail between the legs. This would presumably be the first point since June 23rd, 2016 where they admit they've messed up.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 01:27AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Throwaway Sunday Times sidebar - "Britain is preparing for a state of emergency and to declare martial law in the event of disorder in a no-deal Brexit" :

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1089282356475760640

Sweet mother of .. :eek:

And I thought using Henry the Eight's laws to override the devolved parliaments was undemocratic.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 01:28AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That's when you go through manned posts.

So you advise that people should break the law ?

Borderhopper · 27-01-2019 02:19AM

WicklowTiger wrote: »

Challenge accepted! Well I think any gob****e, in Ireland at least, could do that….

Starting from the most obvious

1. Adoption of the Euro
2. Driving: conversion to KMs (makes sense even if the Imperial world thinks not)
3. Driving: NCT requirement (much safer cars)
4. Driving: penalty points system ( massive road deaths reduction)
5. Volumetric conversions (petrol, milk in litres, solid fuel in kgs, etc)
6. Food labelling standards
7. Customs & excise (blue lane at airports,ports)
8. Free movement, no visa requirement to go on holidays or business trips to the continent
9. Automatic free healthcare throughout the EU (EHIC card)
10. Single market for trade of goods and services

I had to go to the US for work last year. It really felt like a really foreign land, with the ESTA requirements (and paying for it!), immigration clearance, requirement to leave within a time frame, even not having a “valid zip code” checking into the hotel (used their own, never even noticed!)

I could literally move my family to France, Germany, Italy tomorrow permanently. Why would anyone walk away from that???

I would add the EU blood directive to that. It has vastly improved transfusion safety in the EU, including both Ireland and U.K.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Comments