Ireland and the EU Post Brexit

Harry Palmr · 13-01-2019 9:50pm #1

Whither Ireland?

The EU is about to lose its primary English language population.

So does that mean the lingua franca which moved from French to English over the last 40 years will shift back and result in a dedicated Franco-German based EU that will shunt the concerns of low corporation tax Ireland to the margins?

By being politically "good Europeans" but shoddy speaker of languages and with a culture that is thoroughly Atlanticist in most respects are we about to end up on the periphery without our best EU friend?

I'm a remainer through and through but I would not be shocked at all if over time Ireland was pressurised to accede to policies that would not otherwise be adopted. I'm not sure a coalition of small states who feel less integrated than the core nations would have much effect even if such a grouping could be cobbled together effectively.

Peregrinus · 14-01-2019 3:09am

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Whither Ireland?

The EU is about to lose its primary English language population.

So does that mean the lingua franca which moved from French to English over the last 40 years will shift back . . .

No. It suits the EU fairly well that English is (one of the) dominant working languages and that's unlikely to change. Some observers reckon that it will become even more dominant as it will have the advantage of neutrality over the other dominant working languages (which are French and German).

Harry Palmr wrote: »

. . . nd result in a dedicated Franco-German based EU that will shunt the concerns of low corporation tax Ireland to the margins?

Language isn't a big driver of tax policy.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

By being politically "good Europeans" but shoddy speaker of languages and with a culture that is thoroughly Atlanticist in most respects are we about to end up on the periphery without our best EU friend?

I'm a remainer through and through but I would not be shocked at all if over time Ireland was pressurised to accede to policies that would not otherwise be adopted. I'm not sure a coalition of small states who feel less integrated than the core nations would have much effect even if such a grouping could be cobbled together effectively.

Ah, but remember that a majority of member states are "small states". Small states are very influential in the EU. Ireland is in fact an above-average-size state in GDP terms. (And all this becomes slightly truer when the UK withdraws.)

Yes, we'll miss the UK as a fellow member state, is the short answer, but not so much because of language issues. Countries have interests at the EU more than they have languages. Already new alliances and alignments are emerging in anticipation of the UK's withdrawal. The Netherlands and Denmark are countries that frequently togged out with the UK (and ourselves) on tax and trade issues. These three countries, together with Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states, are co-operating closely and at least semi-formally as the "New Hanseatic League" or "Hansa 2.0" (effective working language: English) to influence EU policy on, e.g, the integration of financial markets, and the fiscal autonomy of national governments.

Obviously we don't have the same historic and cultural links with these countries as we do with the UK, so we may have to invest a fair bit of effort to build up the kind of rapport with them that we had with the UK. On the other hand, an alliance which doesn't include the constantly-demanding-opt-outs and increasingly-perceived-as-unreliable UK might be a better strategic option for us anyway.

Victor · 14-01-2019 4:11am

If the UK leaves, there will be one fewer large country, thereby slightly shifting the balance of power to the smaller countries.

17-01-2019 12:44pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Whither Ireland?

The EU is about to lose its primary English language population.

So does that mean the lingua franca which moved from French to English over the last 40 years will shift back and result in a dedicated Franco-German based EU that will shunt the concerns of low corporation tax Ireland to the margins?

By being politically "good Europeans" but shoddy speaker of languages and with a culture that is thoroughly Atlanticist in most respects are we about to end up on the periphery without our best EU friend?

I'm a remainer through and through but I would not be shocked at all if over time Ireland was pressurised to accede to policies that would not otherwise be adopted. I'm not sure a coalition of small states who feel less integrated than the core nations would have much effect even if such a grouping could be cobbled together effectively.

English is the primary business language of the world. I know of several multi nationals that employ people all over europe and carry out their interviews in English only. Brexit will not change this.

Victor wrote: »

If the UK leaves, there will be one fewer large country, thereby slightly shifting the balance of power to the smaller countries.

or closer to Paris, which a few German colleagues fear.

Thomas_IV · 23-01-2019 12:30pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Whither Ireland?

The EU is about to lose its primary English language population.

So does that mean the lingua franca which moved from French to English over the last 40 years will shift back and result in a dedicated Franco-German based EU that will shunt the concerns of low corporation tax Ireland to the margins?

By being politically "good Europeans" but shoddy speaker of languages and with a culture that is thoroughly Atlanticist in most respects are we about to end up on the periphery without our best EU friend?

I'm a remainer through and through but I would not be shocked at all if over time Ireland was pressurised to accede to policies that would not otherwise be adopted. I'm not sure a coalition of small states who feel less integrated than the core nations would have much effect even if such a grouping could be cobbled together effectively.

I don't think so because English remains the international top language in the Western World. Whether the Brits are out of the EU or not wouldn't make much of a difference cos French is more complicated in writing in compare to English in this internet age.

sandbelter · 24-01-2019 1:22pm

Thomas_IV wrote: »

I don't think so because English remains the international top language in the Western World. Whether the Brits are out of the EU or not wouldn't make much of a difference cos French is more complicated in writing in compare to English in this internet age.

All we need is technological advancement that could reverse this.

Big picture I expect German and French over a number of decades to become the lingua franca of the EU.

In the Asia Pacific, for example, there is more interest being paid to the risk that UK's departure from the EU is a precursor to a larger split in the western Alliance. US' heavy weight bullying of Germany is watched with concern as Russia and China really haven't made a move yet and are unlikely to do so until the UK is about of the building. How this plays out will actually be the most important outcome for Brexit. But I do see the English language declining as already occurring in the Orient.

I actually don't discount Russia joining the EEA, as much to veto the UK from spoiling it's participation in Europe ans as a hedge against China. I for one think the biggest moment of crisis for Ireland in the EU will be a future date when there is a serious clash between the US and the EU...that will be actually more serious than Brexit. This will further drive the English language to the background.

fash · 24-01-2019 6:49pm

sandbelter wrote: »

All we need is technological advancement that could reverse this.

Big picture I expect German and French over a number of decades to become the lingua franca of the EU.

“Linguae francae”.
However there is no chance of either becoming a lingua franca: German speakers in business and politics spend half their time speaking in English anyway, all of Eastern Europe, Scandanavia use English as their working language. French fell into relative disuse on the eastward expansion of the EU - and is not coming back - however much they would like it.
Irish has pretty much the same chance of becoming the lingua franca as either French or German.

4068ac1elhodqr · 24-01-2019 7:58pm

sandbelter wrote: »

I actually don't discount Russia joining the EEA, as much to veto the UK from spoiling it's participation in Europe ans as a hedge against China. I for one think the biggest moment of crisis for Ireland in the EU will be a future date when there is a serious clash between the US and the EU...that will be actually more serious than Brexit. This will further drive the English language to the background.

Total opposite. The EU is expanding into the direct competition of the former great Bear states. Ukraine & Turkey along with N'African states are on the longer-term radar to be engulfed by Brussels.

There will be no clash between the US-EU, if anything an Atlantic union is highly likely in decades to come. Not just likely, but perhaps essential, as by 2060 China's GDP will be more powerfull than these two great areas combined.

Peregrinus · 25-01-2019 8:40am

fash wrote: »

“Linguae francae”.
However there is no chance of either becoming a lingua franca: German speakers in business and politics spend half their time speaking in English anyway, all of Eastern Europe, Scandanavia use English as their working language. French fell into relative disuse on the eastward expansion of the EU - and is not coming back - however much they would like it.
Irish has pretty much the same chance of becoming the lingua franca as either French or German.

English is currently the dominant lingua franca in Europe, and Brexit doesn't in itself hugely alter the factors that make this so. But there is no law of God or nature which says it must always be; other dominant linguae francae have receded - just look at French - and English is not insulated from the possibility. I for one will be the first to hail our new Mandarin-speaking overlords.

And you understate, I think, the extent to which German is already a lingua franca in Central and Easten Europe, where it has supplanted Russian, for reasons that we know.

Brian? · 25-01-2019 8:58am

I'm not sure why anyone is worried about English losing its dominant position as a business language. I live in the Netherlands and don't speak any Dutch beyond please and thank you. My kids do their schooling in English. The language of my company is English, despite 75% of the employees being Dutch.

Our Chinese, Japanese and Korean customers all speak English. As does everyone in our Chinese and Japanese offices.

When I go to Germany or France I attempt to speak their languages but I get funny looks and responses in English.

If anything, English is only getting more embedded. Young Dutch people speak better English than I do.

fash · 25-01-2019 9:00am

Peregrinus wrote: »

And you understate, I think, the extent to which German is already a lingua franca in Central and Easten Europe, where it has supplanted Russian, for reasons that we know.

Weiss nicht ob ich zustimmen kann - und ich kann Deutsch und kenne Osteuropa schon gut. But perhaps I know different people - although admittedly there are higher numbers of Eastern Europeans in German universities than elsewhere.

Brian? · 25-01-2019 9:06am

Peregrinus wrote: »

English is currently the dominant lingua franca in Europe, and Brexit doesn't in itself hugely alter the factors that make this so. But there is no law of God or nature which says it must always be; other dominant linguae francae have receded - just look at French - and English is not insulated from the possibility. I for one will be the first to hail our new Mandarin-speaking overlords.

And you understate, I think, the extent to which German is already a lingua franca in Central and Easten Europe, where it has supplanted Russian, for reasons that we know.

You know a lot of people in Eastern Europe are actual ethnically German? When the borders of Germany were re drawn after WW2 a lot of their grandparents had new nationalities, so German would have been spoken at home.

First Up · 25-01-2019 9:26am

Peregrinus wrote:

And you understate, I think, the extent to which German is already a lingua franca in Central and Easten Europe, where it has supplanted Russian, for reasons that we know.

German is not the lingua franca in Central and Eastern Europe. I travel throughout the area and work with local and international organisations - including German ones. All business is conducted in English.

Even the local staff of German organisations are not required to speak German, but they are required to speak English.

Victor · 25-01-2019 11:27am

Brian? wrote: »

You know a lot of people in Eastern Europe are actual ethnically German? When the borders of Germany were re drawn after WW2 a lot of their grandparents had new nationalities, so German would have been spoken at home.

This isn't accurate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%9350)

Charles Babbage · 25-01-2019 12:48pm

Brian? wrote: »

You know a lot of people in Eastern Europe are actual ethnically German? When the borders of Germany were re drawn after WW2 a lot of their grandparents had new nationalities, so German would have been spoken at home.

Of course there are some, but most of the Germans were thrown out in 1945.

Brian? · 25-01-2019 12:53pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Of course there are some, but most of the Germans were thrown out in 1945.

Was it most? I'm genuinely interested. I know a lot of Poles who's grandparents were actually German

Brian? · 25-01-2019 12:54pm

Victor wrote: »

This isn't accurate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%9350)

I said a lot. I'm not sure what the actual number is. Thanks for the link.

Brian? · 25-01-2019 12:56pm

Brian? wrote: »

Was it most? I'm genuinely interested. I know a lot of Poles who's grandparents were actually German

It was most. From the wiki.

"Estimates for the total number of people of German ancestry still living in Central and Eastern Europe in 1950 range from 700,000 to 2.7 million"

First Up · 25-01-2019 3:19pm

Brian? wrote:

"Estimates for the total number of people of German ancestry still living in Central and Eastern Europe in 1950 range from 700,000 to 2.7 million"

That was two generations ago.

Victor · 25-01-2019 5:15pm

Brian? wrote: »

Was it most? I'm genuinely interested. I know a lot of Poles who's grandparents were actually German

That may be because they were born in the German Empire. Poland didn't exist as an independent state before WWI.

otnomart · 25-01-2019 6:29pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So does that mean the lingua franca which moved from French to English over the last 40 years will shift back and result in a dedicated Franco-German based EU that will shunt the concerns of low corporation tax Ireland to the margins?

On the subject of corporate tax,
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire today:

"We strongly believe that there is a need for a minimum corporate tax at the international level, because we don't want the biggest companies of the world escaping the taxation system. We will put that proposal ... as a key priority of the French G7,"

source: Politico EU https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-france-bruno-le-maire-up-to-britain-to-find-a-way-through-impasse/

FreudianSlippers · 25-01-2019 7:08pm

otnomart wrote: »

On the subject of corporate tax,
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire today:

"We strongly believe that there is a need for a minimum corporate tax at the international level, because we don't want the biggest companies of the world escaping the taxation system. We will put that proposal ... as a key priority of the French G7,"

source: Politico EU https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-france-bruno-le-maire-up-to-britain-to-find-a-way-through-impasse/

I strongly believe there's a need for unicorns that **** gold to fly all over the world; doesn't mean it's ever going to happen.

sophiexyz · 26-01-2019 11:19am

otnomart wrote: »

On the subject of corporate tax,
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire today:

"We strongly believe that there is a need for a minimum corporate tax at the international level, because we don't want the biggest companies of the world escaping the taxation system. We will put that proposal ... as a key priority of the French G7,"

source: Politico EU

As usual a position full of ****
Whats to stop any country changing the law that tax must be paid in their country where the service/goods where sold?
Could it be the promised of a job on the board of a company after they leave politics?
See Barroso Goldman Sachs

FreudianSlippers · 26-01-2019 1:30pm

sophiexyz wrote: »

As usual a position full of ****
Whats to stop any country changing the law that tax must be paid in their country where the service/goods where sold?
Could it be the promised of a job on the board of a company after they leave politics?
See Barroso Goldman Sachs

I firmly believe that Ireland is fighting he wrong fight on this point. Tax harmonization in the EU is a major issue that we have to sign up to; failure to do so could lead to a push to radically change the EU.

sabat · 26-01-2019 1:35pm

If any French politician starts getting snippy about taxation you need only to say the magic word 'Monaco' and he'll quieten down sharpish.

First Up · 26-01-2019 1:55pm

FreudianSlippers wrote:

I firmly believe that Ireland is fighting he wrong fight on this point. Tax harmonization in the EU is a major issue that we have to sign up to; failure to do so could lead to a push to radically change the EU.

Tax constitutes a major part of fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is a national, sovereign responsibility. National sovereignty is the cornerstone of both the letter and spirit of the European Union.

There is wide variation in the economies of the EU 27 and these variations are reflected in the variations in fiscal policy - including tax.

There is certainly scope for greater oversight to prevent abuse of the system and this is being addressed. But tax harmonisation will not happen.

sophiexyz · 26-01-2019 2:06pm

Simple truth is German banks are in a bad way, as are many others, anti EU political parties going ground all over the EU, Eastern EU members are restless, if the EU goes hard on Ireland, betrays us in the Brexit negotiations, which is looking likely, we always have the nuclear option, default on the Billions we "owe" the EU/German banks.
The EU would be dead within a month.
Do a trade deal with UK, other ex EU countries would soon do the same.
We all know this but the politicians are not looking out for our best interests so doubtful they will ever do anything

FreudianSlippers · 26-01-2019 2:22pm

First Up wrote: »

Tax constitutes a major part of fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is a national, sovereign responsibility. National sovereignty is the cornerstone of both the letter and spirit of the European Union.

There is wide variation in the economies of the EU 27 and these variations are reflected in the variations in fiscal policy - including tax.

There is certainly scope for greater oversight to prevent abuse of the system and this is being addressed. But tax harmonisation will not happen.

Tax harmonization must and will happen. It's abjectly wrong to move income from the country in which it is incurred to a tax-friendly nation. In fact, Ireland's tax friendliness could become irrelevant tomorrow if another Member State decided to slash its rates. It's very short-sighted to object to harmonization when the bigger picture of rejecting it is either (i) loss of sovereignty of rates (unlikely) or (ii) competition on rates within the EU.

sophiexyz · 26-01-2019 2:28pm

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Tax harmonization must and will happen. It's abjectly wrong to move income from the country in which it is incurred to a tax-friendly nation. In fact, Ireland's tax friendliness could become irrelevant tomorrow if another Member State decided to slash its rates. It's very short-sighted to object to harmonization when the bigger picture of rejecting it is either (i) loss of sovereignty of rates (unlikely) or (ii) competition on rates within the EU.

Whats to stop France creating a new law tomorrow that any goods/services sold in France must pay the tax in France?

FreudianSlippers · 26-01-2019 2:36pm

sophiexyz wrote: »

Whats to stop France creating a new law tomorrow that any goods/services sold in France must pay the tax in France?

Nothing... but why not?

sophiexyz · 26-01-2019 2:40pm

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Nothing... but why not?

Politicians say one thing for public consumption, and another behind closed doors.
Barroso EU BOSS now works for Goldman sachs
Junker, moans about Tax avoidance , but what did he do for Amazon when he was president of Luxembourg?
The politician are fully behind Irish tax laws, look where the politicians go to work when they retire from politics

Ireland and the EU Post Brexit

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