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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Good point about the Canaries- I think the enclaves in Morocco are no longer under Spanish rule.

    Ceuta and Melilla are both in the EU with massive fences and border security.
    Still under Spanish control and Morocco is not happy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,616 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    Call me Al wrote: »
    There's a representative from the Ulster Farmer's Union Ivor Ferguson on Radio1 now saying that a no deal or hard Brexit will be a disaster for NI.
    Their main concern revolves around the huge tariffs. A tariff of £40 per lamb going to ROI will leave 50% of their farmers our of business he says.

    If I was a Northern Irish farmer, I would be seriously thinking of selling off a substantial percentage of my livestock to marts in the ROI in the next month or so.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,936 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The problem is that if the Tories even suggested this, the DUP would pull support and there'd be a GE before HoC could vote on this I believe?

    I don't think the Tories can do much given how many voted against the deal to begin with. 10 DUP votes only matter if the Tories in the Commons can be relied upon to vote with the government.

    So that leaves either a crashout no deal, a general election which won't solve anything or aborting the whole process for damage control.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    As a matter of interest,are you aware that the Canary Islands are Spanish colonies,-Which rather diminishes their "outrage"in regards to Gibraltar perhaps?

    I don't see the relevance of the status of the Canaries when it comes to smuggling, workers rights etc. between Spain and Gibraltar.

    What Spain wants is for Gibraltar to apply the same rules as it does to level the playing field if they want to retain access to the EU.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,385 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    downcow wrote: »
    Very few people here want a border at all but I just believe the intransigence of Eu and roi are forcing a border. Although that may be moving today. The cracks are appearing so hopefully very soft border wherever

    It's pretty easy to determine the type of media accounts you read and follow based on the vocabulary you use when recycling myths.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,708 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If I was a Northern Irish farmer, I would be seriously thinking of selling off a substantial percentage of my livestock to marts in the ROI in the next month or so.

    It's an appalling vista for them, even with May's deal.
    The guy on the radio was anxious to point out that they are a strictly non political body, but I think if the UUP or the Alliance offer any sort of serious alternative policy to that being pursued by Arlene that the DUP section will be de-camping or at the very least lending their vote.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    The DUP have already ruled out an Irish Sea border... why are we still talking about this?
    Because after the next election (which could be very soon) no-one in London will care about what the DUP ruled out or in.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,226 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Why are his admissions of loyalty to what he views as his country and sticking with that through thick or thin being questioned?
    Only because its incomprehensible to most of the rest of us why anyone would tie themselves to a worst-case scenario when they have other options. Especially as downcow has shifted from a position of not being particularly bothered one way or the other (understandable when the facts were not properly exposed) to deliberately choosing the side with those who lied to the public and conspired with outside forces, and with the very real threat that this own livelihood (assuming that's cattle farming) will be wiped out. :confused:
    The DUP have already ruled out an Irish Sea border... why are we still talking about this?
    Because nothing is agreed until everything is agreed! :pac:
    downcow wrote: »
    dozens of polls which show there are more people in NI who feel British rather than Irish So if it is such a severe border so as to diminish nationality then the rest follows.
    That'd be fine, except there are more recent polls that reporting a substantial NI majority in favour of a united Ireland if Brexit causes significant economic damage to NI. Presumably you'd be happy with that - will-o'-the-people and all that? :rolleyes:
    downcow wrote: »
    I trust the UK to maintain any support farmers are getting (as long as they don’t give the whole £350million to the health service lol).
    The NHS? They're not getting a penny. What's left of the £350m is being spent on new border/customs facilities and duplicating all the EU agencies that used to certify everything that Britain traded with the outside world. Oh, and paying dozens of EU suppliers and service providers to keep the UK looking like it's open for business.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,680 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    It has absolutely nothing to do with the EU and Ireland (why you continue to post about the soccer team is ultimately very confusing) - the UK will need a border in the event of a no-deal Brexit to comply with WTO trading rules. Trying to sell this as something the EU is forcing on Ireland/NI is ridiculous.
    It wasn’t me raised the soccer team and I never discussed or mentioned it. I am already under pressure from mod for not being careful enough how I word my replies to pretty predjudiced stuff directed at me. So I refuse to discuss the soccer team here. I need to stay squeaky clean. Mind you I would love to on another thread!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,680 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Dytalus wrote: »
    The EU has, from it's EAFRD (European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development) provided just shy of €170 million so far during the 2014-2020 funding cycle for Northern Ireland. This funding is dedicated to development of farming regions, rather than direct subsidies to farmers.

    Meanwhile, through the common agricultural policy funding, Northern Ireland was given roughly €220 million for 2014-2020 in pillar 2 funding, and over €2 billion in Pillar 1.

    That's a lot of money the UK is going to have to start paying their farmers in Northern Ireland to make up for lost EU Funding on top of the already £10 billion a year they spend propping up NI anyway. To say this is not a problem (or, as you phrased it "I don’t agree with the two negatives you outline") is being a little bit too hopeful.

    True, the UK contributes considerably more than that per year to the EU budget, but that all gets pooled into other funds, like the various EU Structural and Investment Funds..which prioritise the poorer regions of Europe in terms of giving funding - a lot of which are in the UK. Are those regions going to be getting money alongside NI farmers? How much? Will the UK be able to afford it, or will it all get pooled into London like so much of their money does?

    Since the EUSF are geared towards propping up poorer regions, the underdeveloped parts of the UK have been supported - effectively - by the wealthier regions in Germany and France which get proportionately less due to their greater development. Do you think the British government will properly balance the funding and subsidies which previously came out of EUSF funding, or will they (as HMG has a historyof doing) prioritise Britain over NI?

    You're pinning a lot on the good will of HMG towards NI, when they've shown time and time again that NI is considered more a thorn in their side than an worthwhile member of the Union.

    I struggle to completely understand all the figure here. Is the not what the Eu do best. Just muddy the finances so as we can’t get a handle on it. It would be helpful if you could tell me does UK pay in more that we get out? That seems to be the key as to whether they can afford to replace any Eu support NI is getting


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,708 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Because after the next election (which could be very soon) no-one in London will care about what the DUP ruled out or in.

    May has already attempted to shaft them over it. If they cannot see the writing on the wall, you would have to question the intelligence of the current leadership.

    They never learned after ****ting in the nest over the Anglo Irish Agreement and in the run up to the GFA. The British were literally sick of them and went ahead and did the deal regardless of the Never Never Never whinging.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    jm08 wrote: »
    I don't see the relevance of the status of the Canaries when it comes to smuggling, workers rights etc. between Spain and Gibraltar.

    What Spain wants is for Gibraltar to apply the same rules as it does to level the playing field if they want to retain access to the EU.

    The point about smuggling is a fair point but that's not all Spain are complaining about(they want Gibraltar) and in view of the disputed enclaves in Morocco(which I thought had been ceded!) is massive hypocrisy


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    The point about smuggling is a fair point but that's not all Spain are complaining about(they want Gibraltar) and in view of the disputed enclaves in Morocco(which I thought had been ceded!) is massive hypocrisy

    Morocco controls most of the disputed Western Sahara so hypocrisy all round then!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    downcow wrote: »
    I struggle to completely understand all the figure here. Is the not what the Eu do best. Just muddy the finances so as we can’t get a handle on it. It would be helpful if you could tell me does UK pay in more that we get out? That seems to be the key as to whether they can afford to replace any Eu support NI is getting

    Funny enough the Ulster farmer talking on Radio 1 earlier on behalf of his farming union members didnt have any difficulties understanding any figures. Where there's a will there's a way. Especially the tariff figures he was saying his fellow countrymen would now be paying on losing free access to their markets.
    He said they'd even accept May's withdrawal agreement, imperfect as it is.
    Yes he definitely had a comprehensive grip on the figures.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,936 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: A few posts have been deleted. No more personal digs, please. Downcow, that post answers your question. Let the back and forth about it end here.
    Dytalus wrote: »
    The EU has, from it's EAFRD (European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development) provided just shy of €170 million so far during the 2014-2020 funding cycle for Northern Ireland. This funding is dedicated to development of farming regions, rather than direct subsidies to farmers.

    Meanwhile, through the common agricultural policy funding, Northern Ireland was given roughly €220 million for 2014-2020 in pillar 2 funding, and over €2 billion in Pillar 1.

    That's a lot of money the UK is going to have to start paying their farmers in Northern Ireland to make up for lost EU Funding on top of the already £10 billion a year they spend propping up NI anyway. To say this is not a problem (or, as you phrased it "I don’t agree with the two negatives you outline") is being a little bit too hopeful.

    True, the UK contributes considerably more than that per year to the EU budget, but that all gets pooled into other funds, like the various EU Structural and Investment Funds..which prioritise the poorer regions of Europe in terms of giving funding - a lot of which are in the UK. Are those regions going to be getting money alongside NI farmers? How much? Will the UK be able to afford it, or will it all get pooled into London like so much of their money does?

    Since the EUSF are geared towards propping up poorer regions, the underdeveloped parts of the UK have been supported - effectively - by the wealthier regions in Germany and France which get proportionately less due to their greater development. Do you think the British government will properly balance the funding and subsidies which previously came out of EUSF funding, or will they (as HMG has a history of doing) prioritise Britain over NI?

    You're pinning a lot on the good will of HMG towards NI, when they've shown time and time again that NI is considered more a thorn in their side than an worthwhile member of the Union.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,281 ✭✭✭brickster69


    If I was a Northern Irish farmer, I would be seriously thinking of selling off a substantial percentage of my livestock to marts in the ROI in the next month or so.

    You would of thought there would be a big market for them to make a bigger profit sending it to the rest of the UK after March.

    If French and Irish farmers have tariffs and NI don't, looks a bit of a no brainer to undercut them both, especially with no currency fluctuations to worry about.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,226 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    downcow wrote: »
    I know I need to be extra careful about language I use. But any chance of answering my question?

    The maths are there in Dytalus' second post:
    UK pays £13bn to the EU (after rebate);
    the UK receives £4bn from the EU in financial assistance, including farm subsidies;
    Total annual payment from UK to EU = £9bn

    Total annual payment from UK to NI = £10.8bn

    So if the "£350m a day" was a good enough reason for England to want to leave the EU, it won't be long before it's a good enough reason for England to boot the Paddies out of the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,145 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    downcow wrote:
    I know I need to be extra careful about language I use. But any chance of answering my question?


    The simple answer is that the EU spends a rather large amount on peripheral and deprived regions that are not being taken care of, nor will they be, by central government. In terms of whether there's a net loss or gain on the contribution to the EU is a rather misleading concept as the benefits of EU membership go beyond the payments and do not break down as simply as that.

    For example, the UK may pay more in and get less out directly. However, access to the single market produces economic boosts that will not be reflected well on a simple balance sheet. Like the Horizon 2020 schemes which are an indirect economic benefit that leads to a more attractive research environment. This desire to calculate payments in and out is a very simplistic and misleading metric. On a personal level I may make a loss on my personal taxation towards the country I live in based on any payments for health care or social welfare I take out, but that loss would not take into account the upkeep of infrastructure or the benefits of social cohesion and a stable society.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,385 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Downcow, the only way Brexit will change any of the issues in the graphic below is simply by the fact they'll no longer be in the EU, and therefore will no longer appear in such lists if they only include the EU. If NI is in this list despite support from both the UK and the EU, what do you think will happen post Brexit?
    18477-6rv6cn.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,546 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    The simple answer is that the EU spends a rather large amount on peripheral and deprived regions that are not being taken care of, nor will they be, by central government. In terms of whether there's a net loss or gain on the contribution to the EU is a rather misleading concept as the benefits of EU membership go beyond the payments and do not break down as simply as that.

    For example, the UK may pay more in and get less out directly. However, access to the single market produces economic boosts that will not be reflected well on a simple balance sheet. Like the Horizon 2020 schemes which are an indirect economic benefit that leads to a more attractive research environment. This desire to calculate payments in and out is a very simplistic and misleading metric. On a personal level I may make a loss on my personal taxation towards the country I live in based on any payments for health care or social welfare I take out, but that loss would not take into account the upkeep of infrastructure or the benefits of social cohesion and a stable society.
    There's a simpler way of expressing it. Duplicating the devolved administrative functions that the EU carries out on behalf of all its members has cost the UK £4.2 billion so far. And they are a long way from duplicating all aspects. And these aren't once-off costs. They will continue for as long as the UK is outside the EU. Thousands of civil servants (7,000 the last time I looked) are tasked with the project. The requirement is for thousands more in customs, revenue, inspection regimes, technical areas like standards and a raft of other areas that I can't even begin to think of. If they get out of this with less than 20k staff, they will be doing well. But the cost will be astronomical. And all those costs will be incurred regardless of what kind of brexit is chosen.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,145 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    There's a simpler way of expressing it. Duplicating the devolved administrative functions that the EU carries out on behalf of all its members has cost the UK £4.2 billion so far. And they are a long way from duplicating all aspects. And these aren't once-off costs. They will continue for as long as the UK is outside the EU. Thousands of civil servants (7,000 the last time I looked) are tasked with the project. The requirement is for thousands more in customs, revenue, inspection regimes, technical areas like standards and a raft of other areas that I can't even begin to think of. If they get out of this with less than 20k staff, they will be doing well. But the cost will be astronomical. And all those costs will be incurred regardless of what kind of brexit is chosen.

    As a side note, and not to derail the thread, I massively underappreciated the CSPE classes that we had to take in secondary school combined with the history and geography courses that outlined exactly how and why the EU works the way it does. From the few weeks I spent at home at Christmas being exposed to the UK media on a daily basis it's hard to understand how some commentators can remain so belligerently ignorant of how the EU, and parts of their own country, operate. And these are apparently the elite educated that went to private schools and the top universities.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,837 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Just heard from a friend of mine in the UK and everyone in his small town has had a leaflet dropped from a local Tory Councillor, I've seen a copy and found the same thing online.
    WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT THE LISBON TREATY, THE TREATY THAT COMES INTO FORCE 2020, ITS WORSE THAN THE SO CALLED DEAL, IF 99% OF THE BRITISH THINK THIS THE DEAL IS BAD JUST LOOK AT THE LISBON TREATY. PEOPLE NEED TO KNOW, LEAVERS AND REMAIMERS..“What will actually happen if we stay in the EU” is a question no remainer will ever answer but here it is warts and all.

    1: The UK along with all existing members of the EU lose their abstention veto in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon Treaty when the system changes to that of majority acceptance with no abstentions or veto’s being allowed.
    2: All member nations will become states of the new federal nation of the EU by 2022 as clearly laid out in the Lisbon treaty with no exceptions or veto’s.
    3: All member states must adopt the Euro by 2022 and any new member state must do so within 2 years of joining the EU as laid down in the Lisbon treaty.
    4: The London stock exchange will move to Frankfurt in 2020 and be integrated into the EU stock exchange resulting in a loss of 200,000 plus jobs in the UK because of the relocation. (This has already been pre-agreed and is only on a holding pattern due to the Brexit negotiations, which if Brexit does happen, the move is fully cancelled - but if not and the UK remains a member it’s full steam ahead for the move.)
    5: The EU Parliament and ECJ become supreme over all legislative bodies of the UK.
    6: The UK will adopt 100% of whatever the EU Parliament and ECJ lays down without any means of abstention or veto, negating the need for the UK to have the Lords or even the Commons as we know it today.
    7: The UK will NOT be able to make its own trade deals.
    8: The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade tariffs.
    9 The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade quotas.
    10: The UK loses control of its fishing rights
    11: The UK loses control of its oil and gas rights
    12: The UK loses control of its borders and enters the Schengen region by 2022 - as clearly laid down in the Lisbon treaty
    13: The UK loses control of its planning legislation
    14: The UK loses control of its armed forces including its nuclear deterrent
    15: The UK loses full control of its taxation policy
    16: The UK loses the ability to create its own laws and to implement them
    17: The UK loses its standing in the Commonwealths
    18: The UK loses control of any provinces or affiliated nations e.g.: Falklands, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar etc
    19: The UK loses control of its judicial system
    20: The UK loses control of its international policy
    21: The UK loses full control of its national policy
    22: The UK loses its right to call itself a nation in its own right.
    23: The UK loses control of its space exploration program
    24: The UK loses control of its Aviation and Sea lane jurisdiction
    25: The UK loses its rebate in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon treaty
    26: The UK’s contribution to the EU is set to increase by an average of 1.2bn pa and by 2.3bn pa by 2020
    This is the future that the youths of today think we stole from them?
    They should be on their knees thanking us for saving them from being turned into Orwellian automatons, if we escape from control of the EU.

    This seems to being spread around by a lot of Brexiteers, and is going around on many Facebook pages and the way that some of them write is very strange and seems to have a lot in common with the kind of patterns I've seen from Russian trolls in the past. Noticeable that a few of them like referencing Breitbart, Russia Today and don't like the Ukraine at all and believe the Salisbury nerve agent attack was a hoax by potion down. Smells like Russian influence.

    Sorry if it's considered a link dump, but it's quite shocking how you see so many people believing it just because they read it on the internet and how gullable some people are.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,385 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    It's been debunked, quite easily, by experts on Twitter the last few days. Jesus, I mean claiming the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect in 2020 doesn't even have some people scratching their heads.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,837 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Hurrache wrote: »
    It's been debunked, quite easily, by experts on Twitter the last few days.

    The problem is though as much as people debunk it on twitter, only me and you are going to see that, the average Joe that they target with this spam isn't going to see it being debunked, sadly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    downcow wrote: »
    It wasn’t me raised the soccer team and I never discussed or mentioned it. I am already under pressure from mod for not being careful enough how I word my replies to pretty predjudiced stuff directed at me. So I refuse to discuss the soccer team here. I need to stay squeaky clean. Mind you I would love to on another thread!
    It's just confusing that you keep saying RoI if you're not talking about a soccer team is all. :confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,441 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The maths are there in Dytalus' second post:
    UK pays £13bn to the EU (after rebate);
    the UK receives £4bn from the EU in financial assistance, including farm subsidies;
    Total annual payment from UK to EU = £9bn

    Total annual payment from UK to NI = £10.8bn

    So if the "£350m a day" was a good enough reason for England to want to leave the EU, it won't be long before it's a good enough reason for England to boot the Paddies out of the UK.

    It's extraordinary that Brexiteers are hung up on the EU membership fee of all things. It's a country of 65m people and one of the richest countries in the world. A figure of £9bn a year for access to the Single Market and Customs Union membership is a long way from being excessive or extravagant.

    The Netherlands pays €4.4bn net a year, a country of 17m people.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,757 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    devnull wrote: »
    The problem is though as much as people debunk it on twitter, only me and you are going to see that, the average Joe that they target with this spam isn't going to see it being debunked, sadly.

    my MIL is over from Scotland

    telling me how she recently listened to Farage and "how he just talks facts all the time - you know facts like the EU is corrupt"

    I normally try to contain myself but it was out before I could stop myself - "just how the absolute f**k is that a verifiable fact? - that's a f**ing opinion - and a moronic one at that"

    spare room tonight


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,441 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    lawred2 wrote: »
    my MIL is over from Scotland

    telling me how she recently listened to Farage and "how he just talks facts all the time - you know facts like the EU is corrupt"

    I normally try to contain myself but it was out before I could stop myself - "just how the absolute f**k is that a verifiable fact? - that's a f**ing opinion - and a moronic one at that"

    spare room tonight

    If your sum total knowledge of the EU is precisely zero, it's the easiest thing in the world to convince you it's a dictatorship, it's corrupt, it's trying to take over Britain etc.

    The big fault of successive British governments is they made absolutely no attempt to sell the EU to the public or talk up its positives, it was just this thing going on in the background that people didn't know much about. The icing on the cake was that hawkish Eurosceptic Cameron becoming PM and talking about the union purely in negative terms.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 855 ✭✭✭mickoneill31


    devnull wrote: »
    The problem is though as much as people debunk it on twitter, only me and you are going to see that, the average Joe that they target with this spam isn't going to see it being debunked, sadly.

    I saw a post on Facebook today about Ireexit. It had 100% responses that were positive towards brexit. Stuff like, the Irish are waking up and they're not happy now that they have to pay.
    I posted a reply saying most people in Ireland are positive towards the EU and linked to a recent poll.

    I checked it back an hour later. My post is gone and I can't post anything else to the page. It's 100% Pro Brexit again. It's easy to keep people in a bubble in Facebook.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,410 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    lawred2 wrote: »
    my MIL is over from Scotland

    telling me how she recently listened to Farage and "how he just talks facts all the time - you know facts like the EU is corrupt"

    I normally try to contain myself but it was out before I could stop myself - "just how the absolute f**k is that a verifiable fact? - that's a f**ing opinion - and a moronic one at that"

    spare room tonight

    Lol

    Ask her about how farage gets suspicious private jets he seemingly can't afford and a bachelor pad in London be shared with some woman and he doesn't own the place. And how he moves on the circles of ultra wealthy right wing individuals. Those facts.


This discussion has been closed.
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