Brexit Discussion Thread VI

kowtow · 22-01-2019 02:43PM

Akrasia wrote: »

They can revoke A50 and then commit to holding another referendum within x period of time. This would be the most politically pragmatic solution imo. They're not turning their back on the leave voters, just acknowledging that they've run out of time to achieve a workable brexit and need to pull back and reconsider their options.

It would allow them some breathing space to cool down and decide what the wording of a referendum should be, maybe have some citizens assembly style consultation process, agree what the best kind of brexit should be, and then bring that to the people in the form of a referendum.

Given the words of the judges surrounding the revocation judgement, I'm not sure that such a revocation would amount to an act in good faith? It might well have the effect of halting Brexit temporarily but a suspension pending a referendum is, I think, a question of agreement with the EU 27 under Article 50.

I could well be wrong.

VinLieger · 22-01-2019 02:45PM

downcow wrote: »

And therein is the problem. No one knows what deal will evolve between the UK and EU. You state it like you know what the outcome of the next two years negotiations will be. Will we vote again then if you are wrong

What??? If there's no deal on a WA before March 29th there are then no 2 years of negotiations on a FTA you will be out of the EU wholely and completely...... please tell me you understand this.

Also a FTA will not take 2 years it will be a lot longer

J Mysterio · 22-01-2019 02:48PM

Hurrache wrote: »

According to the Indo government sources believe the Polish foreign minister coming out with his statement was a set up between themselves and the UK. It's not that far fetched as the Polish statement came out just shortly after a Tory MP tweeted that they had called upon their Polish friends in support for movement on the backstop.

This is quite obvious I would have thought.

LuckyLloyd · 22-01-2019 03:02PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Commission has finally come out and started the obvious openly, no deal means a hard border.

Although I understand the Irish government strategy on this aided and abetted by the media not pushing this question - some clarity on no deal might sharpen some DUP focus on the real issues.

Once again, as a reminder:

there is a clear distinction between:

- a Hard Border that occurs by default as a result of the UK crashing out with No deal (or ripping up some deal they did agree to)
- a Hard Border that occurs with our (Ireland / the EU) assent throughout the negotiating process

There has been some noise in this thread (Bit Cynical would be a chief proponent of this thinking for some time) that Ireland should remove its demands for a Backstop if the outcome of No Deal is a hard border anyway, and I fully expect such calls to become louder over the coming months.

This may be nuanced and somewhat counter - intuitive, but Ireland's objective is not simply to avoid a Hard Border. It's to avoid agreeing to or facilitating a hardening of the current border arrangements.

The long game in a crash out scenario is the UK returning to the negotiating table with the EU substantially weakened in short order. So we shouldn't baulk under the coming pressure on the topic. It sounds so perniciously logical: why hold firm to a deal breaking back stop when No Deal creates the very situation you wish to insure against?

Thankfully the EU will realise that limiting or removing the backstop is unlikely to get the deal through anyway. The likes of Davis or JRM would take it as proof they were right all along on the EU being ready to buckle and press for more. In this way the margin of defeat helped the Irish position as it was so large as to remove a softening of position on any one thing as a clear path to resolution. But despite that there will still be cries that the Irish position needs to moderate anyway, and Varadkar and Coveney will be tested on the topic.

Akrasia · 22-01-2019 03:16PM

kowtow wrote: »

Given the words of the judges surrounding the revocation judgement, I'm not sure that such a revocation would amount to an act in good faith? It might well have the effect of halting Brexit temporarily but a suspension pending a referendum is, I think, a question of agreement with the EU 27 under Article 50.

I could well be wrong.

Such a revocation would be ok i think given that the EU have already said theyd be happy to allow an A50 extension for the purpose of holding a GE or referendum.

Strazdas · 22-01-2019 03:17PM

Hurrache wrote: »

According to the Indo government sources believe the Polish foreign minister coming out with his statement was a set up between themselves and the UK. It's not that far fetched as the Polish statement came out just shortly after a Tory MP tweeted that they had called upon their Polish friends in support for movement on the backstop.

I was reading a tweet from a European politics professor yesterday (German I think) and he said he smelt a rat the moment he heard the Polish FM's comments.....he suspected he was up to mischief and trying to help out the hard Brexiteers.

Hurrache · 22-01-2019 03:25PM

On top of the news today that Sony is moving business out of the UK and into Holland, P&O have announced they're reflagging all their UK fleet to Cyprus ahead of Brexit.

And Daniel Kawczynski keeps digging his hole deeper.
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1087691731095699456?s=19

Akrasia · 22-01-2019 03:41PM

Hurrache wrote: »

On top of the news today that Sony is moving business out of the UK and into Holland, P&O have announced they're reflagging all their UK fleet to Cyprus ahead of Brexit.

And Daniel Kawczynski keeps digging his hole deeper.
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1087691731095699456?s=19

Great job there Daniel. Taking back control by asking a foreign government to veto a possible request by the UK government.

Genius move there

Dyr · 22-01-2019 03:43PM

Hurrache wrote: »

On top of the news today that Sony is moving business out of the UK and into Holland, P&O have announced they're reflagging all their UK fleet to Cyprus ahead of Brexit.

And Daniel Kawczynski keeps digging his hole deeper.
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1087691731095699456?s=19

You'd wonder how much longer a Polish govt. is going to allow an English MP to dictate foreign policy to them :pac:

Leroy42 · 22-01-2019 03:44PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Great job there Daniel. Taking back control by asking a foreign government to veto a possible request by the UK government.

Genius move there

Exactly, returned sovereignty to the HoC, so that they can ignore the HoC and get the Polish to make the law instead.

Does an extension to A50 require unanimity?

lawred2 · 22-01-2019 03:46PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Great job there Daniel. Taking back control by asking a foreign government to veto a possible request by the UK government.

Genius move there

You'd have to wonder about this lad's intelligence levels... So he publicly announces that he wants a foreign government to veto a democratic determination of the Parliament of which he's a member..

I don't think he's quite the full schilling

Hurrache · 22-01-2019 03:47PM

Bambi wrote: »

You'd wonder how much longer a Polish govt. is going to allow an English MP to dictate foreign policy to them :pac:

As right wing as they are, it may backfire as Poland will not want to be seen as a country that takes instructions from the UK.

Apparently he stands to make a lot of money out of Brexit, pretty dodgy character according to the Private Eye.

prawnsambo · 22-01-2019 04:02PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Exactly, returned sovereignty to the HoC, so that they can ignore the HoC and get the Polish to make the law instead.

Does an extension to A50 require unanimity?

No, it's by qualified majority.

Edit: No, I'm wrong on that. Has to be unainmous.

Leroy42 · 22-01-2019 04:07PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

No, it's by qualified majority.

So then, regardless of the whole 'taking back control' by putting Poland in charge, Poland haven't even got the power to stop it anyway as there is no veto?

Is that right?

Professor Moriarty · 22-01-2019 04:15PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

No, it's by qualified majority.

Edit: No, I'm wrong on that. Has to be unainmous.

I can't see Poland vetoing a request from Britain to extend Article 50. Germany and France, among others, would go ballistic as it would threaten EU cohesion and, by extension, the very existence of the EU. An uninformed brainfart by a foreign minister and a tweet from a Brexiteer backbencher don't constitute a realistic threat.

CrabRevolution · 22-01-2019 04:20PM

Brexit just seems to keep unveiling levels of bizarredom that I never knew existed. The idea of British people who value "taking back control" over all also celebrating that a foreign government can overrule a request the British House of Commons makes is just absurd, but nothing in Brexit seems absurd anymore.

Christy42 · 22-01-2019 04:21PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

prawnsambo wrote: »

No, it's by qualified majority.

Edit: No, I'm wrong on that. Has to be unainmous.

I can't see Poland vetoing a request from Britain to extend Article 50. Germany and France, among others, would go ballistic as it would threaten EU cohesion and, by extension, the very existence of the EU. An uninformed brainfart by a foreign minister and a tweet from a Brexiteer backbencher don't constitute a realistic threat.

Why would it threaten anything? As is the French seem set to veto it as well.
I guess Macron is open to a good plan but if Article 50 is not extended then it is no deal. Annoying but not lethal to the EU and destructive to the UK. Plus the good plan seems unlikely.

I could see the Eastern European countries just wanting this settled one way or another and a few going for the veto. It is their right as EU members even if the UK would suffer greatly from it.

Hurrache · 22-01-2019 04:23PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Why would it threaten anything? As is the French seem set to veto it as well.
I guess Macron is open to a good plan but if Article 50 is not extended then it is no deal. Annoying but not lethal to the EU and destructive to the UK. Plus the good plan seems unlikely.

I could see the Eastern European countries just wanting this settled one way or another and a few going for the veto. It is their right as EU members even if the UK would suffer greatly from it.

There's a difference in vetoing out of self interest or the EUs interest, it's altogether a different prospect doing it at the request of someone in the UK.

Professor Moriarty · 22-01-2019 04:29PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Why would it threaten anything? As is the French seem set to veto it as well.
I guess Macron is open to a good plan but if Article 50 is not extended then it is no deal. Annoying but not lethal to the EU and destructive to the UK. Plus the good plan seems unlikely.

I could see the Eastern European countries just wanting this settled one way or another and a few going for the veto. It is their right as EU members even if the UK would suffer greatly from it.

The only way that the EU will agree to an extension is if the UK come up with a credible plan where there is a likelihood of a soft Brexit or possibly a second referendum. Macron won't veto under those circumstances and I can't see any Eastern European countries vetoing it either. It simply wouldn't be in their interest. As I said, the blowback if, say, Poland vetoed an extension request would be very severe.

Borderhopper · 22-01-2019 04:43PM

VAT and tax investigator staff in Derry have been pulled from regular duties for 10 weeks compulsory customs "training".

Borderhopper · 22-01-2019 04:45PM

Northern Ireland Civil Service staff have been asked to "volunteer" to man fuel depots in the event of fuel shortages

Russman · 22-01-2019 04:52PM

I think it might have been mentioned earlier (waaay earlier !!) in this thread by someone, but if its a no-deal crash out and we need to put up a border, would it be feasible for our planning process, tender & design processes and overall bureaucracy to be slow enough that by the time we got to actually build and open border posts, the UK would be on its knees and looking for a deal ? First item on the agenda obviously would be the border issue.

Quin_Dub · 22-01-2019 04:52PM

Borderhopper wrote: »

VAT and tax investigator staff in Derry have been pulled from regular duties for 10 weeks compulsory customs "training".

Borderhopper wrote: »

Northern Ireland Civil Service staff have been asked to "volunteer" to man fuel depots in the event of fuel shortages

##Mod Note##

Borderhopper - You're going to have to make some reference to a news report or something around these updates..

(potentially) Random hearsay is not really up to standard for this forum..

Thanks

Borderhopper · 22-01-2019 05:01PM

Apologies mod.

Not something available on news for obvious reasons. But I've both spoken to staff concerned and seen the emails regarding both issues.

It's not hearsay, but people value their jobs whilst being concerned at the pressure put on them to enforce a hard border.

Another thing to note. Do not underestimate the potential for violence. Nationalists were told a united ireland wasn't a necessity because of FOM. The potential loss of this has angered and scared people, especially with the quite frankly unseemly crowing from the DUP about a lost vote. 1968/9 may be acknowledged as the start of the troubles, but pressure built up over years. There are a lot of young people (adults who weren't even. One in 1998!) who have a romantic notion of the troubles. As history shows, it doesn't take everyone to tip things into violence. Just enough will do it.

Professor Moriarty · 22-01-2019 05:25PM

From The Guardian re Kawczynski's call for a veto:

A Polish govt source shoots this down immediately saying Britain's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement is the worst possible scenario for Brexit. Adds Poland would evaluate any A50 motion if/when it comes from the UK govt, but would need to have a clear plan of what's next.

Enzokk · 22-01-2019 05:34PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From The Guardian re Kawczynski's call for a veto:

A Polish govt source shoots this down immediately saying Britain's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement is the worst possible scenario for Brexit. Adds Poland would evaluate any A50 motion if/when it comes from the UK govt, but would need to have a clear plan of what's next.

It is going to be interesting if the UK parliament votes to extend article 50 and Poland does veto it. I believe the word treason covers what Kawczynski is doing, by lobbying a foreign government to subvert the decision of parliament.

Professor Moriarty · 22-01-2019 05:37PM

Enzokk wrote: »

It is going to be interesting if the UK parliament votes to extend article 50 and Poland does veto it. I believe the word treason covers what Kawczynski is doing, by lobbying a foreign government to subvert the decision of parliament.

Interestingly, he was born in Poland and came to the UK when he was seven. So maybe it's not treason...

Larbre34 · 22-01-2019 05:49PM

James Dyson is moving the Dyson Corporation Head Office and its tax residency to Singapore. The company is quoted as saying its "nothing to do with Brexit"

The absolute shtate of that hypocritical, morally bankrupt, self-serving, hungry weasel piece of shyte.

J Mysterio · 22-01-2019 05:49PM

Borderhopper wrote: »

Apologies mod.

Not something available on news for obvious reasons. But I've both spoken to staff concerned and seen the emails regarding both issues.

It's not hearsay, but people value their jobs whilst being concerned at the pressure put on them to enforce a hard border.

Another thing to note. Do not underestimate the potential for violence. Nationalists were told a united ireland wasn't a necessity because of FOM. The potential loss of this has angered and scared people, especially with the quite frankly unseemly crowing from the DUP about a lost vote. 1968/9 may be acknowledged as the start of the troubles, but pressure built up over years. There are a lot of young people (adults who weren't even. One in 1998!) who have a romantic notion of the troubles. As history shows, it doesn't take everyone to tip things into violence. Just enough will do it.

Its already started. The Derry car bomb and subsequent events are a message

Akrasia · 22-01-2019 05:52PM

Borderhopper wrote: »

Northern Ireland Civil Service staff have been asked to "volunteer" to man fuel depots in the event of fuel shortages

Will be great craic in Northern Ireland if no deal goes through. Not enough fuel to get to work, not enough electricity to power the factories, not enough food to eat, not enough police or security services to keep the sectarian violence under control.

And Arlene Foster will still get re-elected in the next general election.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Comments