Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Professor Moriarty · 17-01-2019 08:31PM

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

Correct. If there is no deal then there will be a hard border. This isn't news.

eire4 · 17-01-2019 08:32PM

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

There is no jumping going on there at all. We all know and have know that if they leave with no deal there will be a hard border that is a fact which our government and everyone has always acknowledged. It of course is not something we want to have happen but it is reality.

A Dub in Glasgo · 17-01-2019 08:34PM

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

You have not read anything before about No Deal if you think this is news

brickster69 · 17-01-2019 08:43PM

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

Of course that will happen. It is an EU border now, not Irish.

Phonehead · 17-01-2019 08:46PM

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

Well that's an interesting take on Britain withdrawing from the EU and not agreeing to Northern Ireland staying in the CU to avoid a hard border........................... It's all the EU's fault :rolleyes:

A Dub in Glasgo · 17-01-2019 08:54PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Of course that will happen. It is an EU border now, not Irish.

It is the UK border in Ireland which will be a UK / EU border

Water John · 17-01-2019 08:57PM

Nick Boles Con MP, is very good at dealing with Andrew Neil on BBC 2.
Nick admits he has made errors and has learned along the way, flummoxes Neil.
Doesn't allow Neil cut him off from finishing his points.

theguzman · 17-01-2019 09:04PM

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example. A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

Bit cynical · 17-01-2019 09:08PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why wouldn't they meet without the British PM? Does Juncker get invited to cabinet meetings?

Someone was querying whether it was possible for the EU members to meet and decide things (in that instance trade) without the input of the UK and asked me to provide examples.

Professor Moriarty · 17-01-2019 09:09PM

theguzman wrote: »

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example. A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

Brilliant logic.

Phonehead · 17-01-2019 09:10PM

theguzman wrote: »

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example. A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

You should definitely contact your local TD and share this brilliant insight on Irelands Brexit tactic.

Professor Moriarty · 17-01-2019 09:11PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Someone was querying whether it was possible for the EU members to meet and decide things (in that instance trade) without the input of the UK and asked me to provide examples.

Indeed. It would irrational to discuss future relationships and negotiating strategy when the other party is in the room.

Anthracite · 17-01-2019 09:11PM

theguzman wrote: »

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example.

They can leave the EU and still be in the customs union, single market etc. In fact many people campaigned and won votes for 'leave' on that basis.

theguzman wrote: »

A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

We would be in violation of international treaties if we did that. That would be an idiotic idea.

theguzman · 17-01-2019 09:16PM

Anthracite wrote: »

They can leave the EU and still be in the customs union, single market etc. In fact many people campaigned and won votes for 'leave' on that basis.

We would be in violation of international treaties if we did that. That would be an idiotic idea.

A customs union undermines economic sovereignty and imposes rules on the UK over which they have no input so they have to leave. It is easy for the Irish state to pull out of International treaties as required and if we had a proper Nationalist Govt here would be standing up to the UK and co-operating with the UK to get Brexit implemented on a mutually beneficial basis.

Hurrache · 17-01-2019 09:16PM

theguzman wrote: »

No Deal will happen and the hard border will be coming back to the Island of Ireland.

Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Committee on European Union Affairs of the German Bundestag has admitted today that the EU will overrule Irish wishes and implement a hard border in Ireland during an interview with BBC Radio Foyle today. I believe a German politician anyday over our ineffective Government, when Mutti calls Leo and says jump Leo will close the border wait and see.

As I said a few days, nobody but the very naive would assume no border in the event of no deal.

The Germans you put on a pedestal haven't told us anything we didn't know already.

theguzman wrote: »

a proper Nationalist Govt here would be standing up to the UK and co-operating with the UK

Normally I'd assume a typo, but with your posting history I'm not so sure.

Irishmale0399 · 17-01-2019 09:21PM

Anthracite wrote: »

They can leave the EU and still be in the customs union, single market etc. In fact many people campaigned and won votes for 'leave' on that basis.

We would be in violation of international treaties if we did that. That would be an idiotic idea.

Its all very simple....the EU has to show balls and tell the UK that the deal is on the table and that is all they are getting. Take it or leave it.....if they dont we will have Greece, Italy and a few others trying to get out without any real loss.

As for the border.....an EU customs/police force to monitor it and let people get on with their lives, if the people in the North dont like it they can do as I expect the Scots will and organise an indepenence referendum and join the EU once they are free of English rule.

Phonehead · 17-01-2019 09:22PM

theguzman wrote: »

A customs union undermines economic sovereignty and imposes rules on the UK over which they have no input so they have to leave. It is easy for the Irish state to pull out of International treaties as required and if we had a proper Nationalist Govt here would be standing up to the UK and co-operating with the UK to get Brexit implemented on a mutually beneficial basis.

So we are both standing up to the UK and co-operating with them at the same time. Amazing.

Love it! for real you should be a Government advisor.

Capt'n Midnight · 17-01-2019 09:24PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

EEA is all the obligations they have at the moment without any benefits; all free movements, taking EU law. They might be able to make their own third-nation trade deals, but they'd be hindered by single market rules and EFTA.

The only positive for the UK to EEA is... fisheries?

I've posted before about fishing. Most of the quotas are held by big companies and good few foreign ones at that. So sweet FA for the locals.

Pre-EU deals with other countries mean the UK won't be taking back control of fishing anytime soon anyway.

At present half the UK catch is landed in foreign ports because the UK doesn't enforce the existing rules. So lots of lost jobs and tax. And with a Hard Brexit there'll be tariffs too. .

Hurrache · 17-01-2019 09:26PM

Official call up for the military reservists in preparation for a no deal. Delivering food parcels, blockade airlifts, refamiliarisation with a certain border area..

All the hallmarks of a modern functioning democracy anyway.

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1085863863717937152?s=19/

TheRiverman · 17-01-2019 09:30PM

You would think Brexit never existed this evening on BBC and Sky News.Its all about Prince Phillip crashing his Range Rover at Sandringham earlier today.

Capt'n Midnight · 17-01-2019 09:31PM

theguzman wrote: »

It is easy for the Irish state to pull out of International treaties as required and if we had a proper Nationalist Govt here would be standing up to the UK and co-operating with the UK to get Brexit implemented on a mutually beneficial basis.

Exports to the UK count for just 6% of our GDP.

And we'd hope to make up some of the shortfall by companies transferring here to remain in the EU.

Bit cynical · 17-01-2019 09:35PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. It would irrational to discuss future relationships and negotiating strategy when the other party is in the room.

Therefore this could also have been done with trade to avoid a conflict of interest. The point had been made that trade talks could not have occurred because the UK would have been on both sides of the table. However it is possible to exclude one party when necessary.

Irishmale0399 · 17-01-2019 09:38PM

A German politician was asked today on local German radio if he really felt that the British reports that the German economy would suffer badly after a no deal Brexit were true.......his answer was very simple and clear....

If they leave they have to do deals with the world which will take time and will not put them in a good position due to desperation to save their own economy.....Ireland, Germany, France etc. will all work together and get on, with or without the UK. The UK is not the EU...the EU is much bigger and stronger and we will stand together.

Capt'n Midnight · 17-01-2019 09:40PM

News dump.

Brexit means the UK gov't isn't planning to keep the lights on.
All but one of the UK's existing nuclear power plants are due to close by 2030. Only one of the six new plants is going ahead.
A Hard Brexit means importing electricity may have extra costs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46896530
A reminder that a Hard Brexit means things like data transfers get tricky.

Housing market outlook worst 'for 20 years' Uncertainty.
Property values also affect the balance sheet. Enough of a fall and some companies would become insolvent.

Make no mistake, anything other than calling off the whole thing means years more haggling and presumably humiliation.
Ministers must clarify the UK's post-Brexit relationship with Switzerland and up to 70 non-EU countries,

prawnsambo · 17-01-2019 09:50PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Therefore this could also have been done with trade to avoid a conflict of interest. The point had been made that trade talks could not have occurred because the UK would have been on both sides of the table. However it is possible to exclude one party when necessary.

Perhaps you missed this?

wiggle16 wrote: »

It would effectively mean that Britain would be allowed to negotiate a trade deal on its own terms before deciding whether or not to leave the EU (the referendum wasn't legally binding and Article 50 can be revoked) and itself sets a bad precedent should another country decide to leave. Cameron went to Brussels to get a deal prior to the referendum to convince the UK to stay. Discussing trade while still a member state would be the exact opposite of that. It would turn into the UK govt trying to make leaving the EU an attractive option.

That's also why the EU refused to discuss anything before Article 50 was invoked. It gives Britain an unfair advantage and would have turned Article 50 into something to threaten the EU with rather than being a part of the legal process.

Besides, they can't even work out the legal relationship they want with the EU as things stand, never mind a trade deal.

jochenstacker · 17-01-2019 09:53PM

theguzman wrote: »

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example. A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

Will Sir be eating these words with ketchup or mustard?

First Up · 17-01-2019 09:56PM

jochenstacker wrote: »

Will Sir be eating these words with ketchup or mustard?

I'd suggest Sauerkraut would be more appropriate.

Enzokk · 17-01-2019 09:56PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

In your opinion. But I disagree with that. If a country is leaving a trading bloc, there's nothing wrong with discussing future trade arrangements once the country leaves. Yes, there would be a conflict of interest if that country was also on the other side of the table, but like I said earlier, that country could be exempted from representation in matters relating to trade while the talks are taking place. The new trading relationship would only come into force, of course, once the country leaves.

It seems your main argument is "because the EU says so and that's that!".

I know this discussion has moved on but like the UK has found out the EU is a rules based organisation. The rule states that trade talks will not commence until the country has left the EU via triggering article 50. This is what will happen.

The reasons for this is that the EU doesn't do trade deals with itself and while the UK is in the EU it will not happen. There is however the political declaration which will show the way forward towards a future trade deal.

Those are the rules and the EU will follow its own rules.

Bit cynical wrote: »

However, from the point of view of the UK, this might be attractive in two ways.

1. It complies at least with the letter of the 2016 vote. I think we here sometimes underestimate the weight this has in UK politics compared to referendums in this country.

2. It provides a bridge between total crash out and potential negotiated trade agreements with other countries. Sure these may be limited in scope while the UK is in the EEA, but better than nothing while better arrangements are sought.

It is correct though that they will have little or no say in EU legislation applied to the UK through the EEA. A small country like Norway won't have much say anyway so they are not losing much by not being in the EU. But the UK is a large country in the EU so influence will be lost.

The unfortunate thing for Ireland, in addition to undesired border checks, would be that the influence the UK had within the EU often worked in our favour. That would be lost.

The problems with that is that they have no control over immigration or trade deals. This is two very important aspects that was sold to people who voted leave and Theresa May has them as her red lines as well. Also, it is a worse deal for the UK than they have now which can be used to hammer the government that signs on to this with.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Correct. If there is no deal then there will be a hard border. This isn't news.

We may not want a hard border and our talks has always been about how we will not put up a hard border, the reality is that if it comes to this then we have no choice. I think everyone is aware of that but they don't want to be the one to be the first to say it out loud. I don't blame our politicians, do you want to be the one to break an international treaty?

theguzman wrote: »

They voted to Leave, and leave means leave not some half baked example. A hard Brexit is all but inevitable now I think. Ireland should just go and tell the EU we will not be enforcing a hard border since Partition is not something we will be encouraging. We should also be pushing hard for a United Ireland and shakedown the EU to pay for the whole thing.

If there is a hard Brexit the border will be one of many urgent problems we will need to deal with at the same time. It will be chaos but at least we will have the support of the EU to back us up. If we tell the EU we will not enforce the border then we will find ourselves on the outside which will be even worse than doing what we need with EU support.

The question I still have is will the UK really break the GFA when a solution is there for them to avoid doing that. Surely they could decide to still put the border in the Irish Sea instead of breaking an international treaty, then again that is more just wishful thinking on my side if the worst case scenario happens.

Mr.Nice Guy · 17-01-2019 09:59PM

Was watching BBC NI earlier where they had a report on the border near Cavan and one of the locals interviewed said Nigel Dodds' father Joe worked as a customs officer. Found this a surprise and turns out it's true. From the Belfast Telegraph:

His father, Joe, had served in the Army during the 1950s, seeing service in Korea and Kenya, as well as a number of other places. He then became a customs officer and later joined the UDR in 1970, around the same time as the family moved to Enniskillen.

So Dodds would know about customs more than most given his father's profession, yet just a few days ago was willing to stand over Arlene's recent comments that there had never been a hard border. Lamentable but not at all surprising.

RobMc59 · 17-01-2019 10:00PM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

A German politician was asked today on local German radio if he really felt that the British reports that the German economy would suffer badly after a no deal Brexit were true.......his answer was very simple and clear....

If they leave they have to do deals with the world which will take time and will not put them in a good position due to desperation to save their own economy.....Ireland, Germany, France etc. will all work together and get on, with or without the UK. The UK is not the EU...the EU is much bigger and stronger and we will stand together.

Leaving would be a disastrous event for the UK but will effect others-let`s hope the UK see sense.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany/german-industry-staring-into-abyss-of-no-deal-brexit-bdi-idUSKCN1MT1AL

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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