Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Imreoir2 · 15-01-2019 05:22PM

If you are going to have a referendum, then it should be between May's deal and Remain. No-deal should not be offered as a choice. Let the hard core Brexiteers boycott if they like, remain will win and the UK can go back to ignoring the Brexiteers as they should have done in the first place.

john9876 · 15-01-2019 05:25PM

3 option referendum choices! Has nobody grasped the fact that the British electorate are to put it mildly , lacking in brain power.
How about a two option referendum
1. Commit national hari-kari
2. As we were.

robinph · 15-01-2019 05:26PM

VinLieger wrote: »

If no options gets a 50% majority would you have a run off? I cant see how having only a 3 option ref works without splitting the country even further due to the chance of there being no clear 50% majority

And what do you do if 48% Remain, 27% TM deal, 25% No deal?

Could run off between Remain and TM deal, but the TM deal/ No deal leaver options would have a valid complaint that remain was the least preferred option compare to leave.

lawred2 · 15-01-2019 05:27PM

john9876 wrote: »

3 option referendum choices! Has nobody grasped the fact that the British electorate are to put it mildly , lacking in brain power.
How about a two option referendum
1. Commit national hari-kari
2. As we were.

Wording could be risky there - you sure enough people would know what hari-kari means?

Hurrache · 15-01-2019 05:34PM

The Austrian chancellor looking somewhat bemused when asked if negotiations will resume after May's defeat. Interviewers seem to be really hoping, or expecting, someone in the EU will say ok, we'll drop the backstop.

https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1085170722316660737

He tried to go down the same road with this Green MEP
https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1085188528512716807

FreudianSlippers · 15-01-2019 05:38PM

Hurrache wrote: »

The Austrian chancellor looking somewhat bemused when asked if negotiations will resume after May's defeat. Interviewers seem to be really hoping, or expecting, someone in the EU will say ok, we'll drop the backstop.

https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1085170722316660737

Does the UK even know what more concessions they actually want?!

Hurrache · 15-01-2019 05:44PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Does the UK even know what more concessions they actually want?!

Nope, and the guy in the second video said they don't know what they want.

VinLieger · 15-01-2019 05:45PM

robinph wrote: »

And what do you do if 48% Remain, 27% TM deal, 25% No deal?

Could run off between Remain and TM deal, but the TM deal/ No deal leaver options would have a valid complaint that remain was the least preferred option compare to leave.

Which is another reason, albeit a stupid one, why a 3 option deal won't work

MrMusician18 · 15-01-2019 05:52PM

john9876 wrote: »

3 option referendum choices! Has nobody grasped the fact that the British electorate are to put it mildly , lacking in brain power.
How about a two option referendum
1. Commit national hari-kari
2. As we were.

As I've said many times before, we shouldn't be too smug about our collective national intelligence either.

If there is another referendum the options will be Mays deal or remain. A three way runoff or any other variant will not be used since Mays deal and remain are the only workable options. This is really quite similar to the vote we had on the 1921 Treaty in many ways, lots of potential options but only two viable outcomes.

It will then be up to Leave to take ownership of Mays deal and present it as the freedom to win freedom. This is Goves angle and imo the most probable next Tory leader.

It will be interesting in that case to see where the hard leavers will go. You might see them try to disown and discredit the process

Christy42 · 15-01-2019 06:00PM

Can they just make a choice? Obviously no deal is bad for us but we can't prevent their decision. I would prefer no deal decided now instead of in 3 months time.

3 options. Pick one so we can prepare properly for it.

FreudianSlippers · 15-01-2019 06:02PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Can they just make a choice? Obviously no deal is bad for us but we can't prevent their decision. I would prefer no deal decided now instead of in 3 months time.

3 options. Pick one so we can prepare properly for it.

That's the point - we shouldn't allow any extension to Art 50 unless there is a good reason, and that good reason should only be a second referendum / people's vote. It should not be to facilitate a GE or a renegotiation of the deal.

FrancieBrady · 15-01-2019 06:14PM

Anybody listening to Sammy Wilson on Drivetime - who was the EU negotiator he says was claiming that 'the EU can't believe the deal they got' ?

EdgeCase · 15-01-2019 06:16PM

Just for the sake of information on the thread, is there an estimated time when this vote will happen?

upupup · 15-01-2019 06:19PM

In the event of a no Deal,would the potential border problems be a stumbling block for any other deal that the UK try to make outside of the EU.Other countries may think "Im not getting involved with that mess"
No deal with any country ever again?.....unless its a real bargain!

Keatsian · 15-01-2019 06:19PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

My understanding is that May doesn't have to actually detail out a Plan B in three days, certainly not something that she is then forced to stick to.

It can be as fluffy as simply saying she is going to work even harder and go back to the EU for further talks.

It provides an opportunity for MPs to debate that plan, and to table at least one amendment (the government may insist the debate is no longer than 90 minutes, and there is no more than one amendment). Government won't be bound by the results, but would come under enormous pressure if a majority in Parliament backed, say, an amendment seeking a softer withdrawal agreement or a second referendum.

If May turns up and presents a plan that sounds too "fluffy", a lot of MPs might start to seriously consider backing an alternative.

Adamcp898 · 15-01-2019 06:19PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just for the sake of information on the thread, is there an estimated time when this vote will happen?

7ish. Although the speculation has moved on to what happens after it's rejected as opposed to what way will the vote go.

MrMusician18 · 15-01-2019 06:20PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anybody listening to Sammy Wilson on Drivetime - who was the EU negotiator he says was claiming that 'the EU can't believe the deal they got' ?

Boogeyman de jour, Martin Selmayr.

The quote was reported on the Telegraph. Hmm.

Keatsian · 15-01-2019 06:20PM

Adamcp898 wrote: »

7ish. Although the speculation has moved on to what happens after it's rejected as opposed to what way will the vote go.

I think it's more a case of "after 7", which could be hours after.

Akrasia · 15-01-2019 06:20PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just for the sake of information on the thread, is there an estimated time when this vote will happen?

Voting on the 4 amendments is scheduled after 7pm and May's WA deal will be the last vote of the day

Adamcp898 · 15-01-2019 06:21PM

Keatsian wrote: »

I think it's more a case of "after 7", which could be hours after.

Hence the "ish"

Voting to begin around 7, but as already pointed out, 1-4 amendments first.

J Mysterio · 15-01-2019 06:24PM

I see the Brexiteers are burning the EU flag now, outside parliament.

Adamcp898 · 15-01-2019 06:26PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I see the Brexiteers are burning the EU flag now, outside parliament.

And yet people say the DUP are ineffective.

:pac:

Christy42 · 15-01-2019 06:31PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just for the sake of information on the thread, is there an estimated time when this vote will happen?

Each amendment is meant to have a max of 15 minutes so I believe 8 (with amendments starting at 7 as others have said).

Might be a bit beforehand but I don't see the (largely pointless) amendments going too quick.

jm08 · 15-01-2019 06:36PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anybody listening to Sammy Wilson on Drivetime - who was the EU negotiator he says was claiming that 'the EU can't believe the deal they got' ?

I think it was a Dutch consultant on customs speaking to the HoC Brexit Committee who said that the first EU offer to the UK was unbelievable good and that no other country got such a good offer. The Dutch consultant also said that he couldn't understand why May turned it down.

I suspect that Sammy maybe massaging the truth a bit there.

For the record, the Dutch Consultant said that the EU negotiating team were on the ball and they had him in to discuss customs operations. The British team didn't invite him to explain how customs work and it was only a few weeks ago before he was asked by the HoC Committee to speak to them about it.

I saw that meeting - Sylvia Hermon was very impressive with her questioning. Wish there were a few more unionists like her around and there would not be this mess over Brexit.

FrancieBrady · 15-01-2019 06:39PM

jm08 wrote: »

I think it was a Dutch consultant on customs speaking to the HoC Brexit Committee who said that the first EU offer to the UK was unbelievable good and that no other country got such a good offer. The Dutch consultant also said that he couldn't understand why May turned it down.

I suspect that Sammy maybe massaging the truth a bit there.

For the record, the Dutch Consultant said that the EU negotiating team were on the ball and they had him in to discuss customs operations. The British team didn't invite him to explain how customs work and it was only a few weeks ago before he was asked by the HoC Committee to speak to them about it.

I saw that meeting - Sylvia Hermon was very impressive with her questioning. Wish there were a few more unionists like her around and there would not be this mess over Brexit.

Sammy was saying this guy is claiming 'the EU can't believe how good a deal they (the EU) got.
He said it in the context of criticising May's weak negotiations.

Seems it was Martin Selmayr quoted in the Telegraph according to poster above.

jm08 · 15-01-2019 06:42PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sammy was saying this guy is claiming 'the EU can't believe how good a deal they (the EU) got.
He said it in the context of criticising May's weak negotiations.

Seems it was Martin Selmayr quoted in the Telegraph according to poster above.

I wonder why he didn't quote what the Dutch Customs Consultant had to say to the HoC Brexit Committee as from what I recall, he was present.

Itssoeasy · 15-01-2019 06:49PM

Someone needs to take a lump hammer to that bloody bell or drum that has been playing in the background on the TV coverage from outside Westminster.

Enzokk · 15-01-2019 07:05PM

It is somewhat telling that the MEP from Belgium has a better grasp on what the restrictions are on the deal they can get than politicians from the UK. They have to choose, GFA or clean Brexit. Seeing as almost no-one has said they want to rip up the GFA from the UK side then their options are limited on what they can get. It really is that simple and even another 5 years of negotiations will not change that.

I do wonder if there is a no-deal Brexit, will there be a deal that protects the GFA? Do we see a situation where the UK rips up the GFA or will they adhere to the treaty they have and be content with an Irish sea border? What could the DUP realistically do?

BonnieSituation · 15-01-2019 07:18PM

Hurrache wrote: »

The Austrian chancellor looking somewhat bemused when asked if negotiations will resume after May's defeat. Interviewers seem to be really hoping, or expecting, someone in the EU will say ok, we'll drop the backstop.

https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1085170722316660737

He tried to go down the same road with this Green MEP
https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1085188528512716807

A Belgian MEP statingthst the GFA IS PARAMOUNT in all if this. Who knew.

devnull · 15-01-2019 07:34PM

Just listening to Jeremy Corbyn's speech and I have to say the man is completely deluded.

He is showing his true colours as a Brexiteer, he is almost doing the work of some of the brexiteers for them.

He will go down in history as an enabler who watched idly by when he could and should have done something.

Jeremy Corbyn wants power and he will sacrifice anything for it.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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