Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Russman · 09-01-2019 11:25AM

Is it purely the backstop arrangement that's the problem for opponents to May's deal ? or is there another idealogical issue with it ?

I'm just wondering, despite all the statements and declarations, if the EU might "cave" at the last minute, just as DD, IDS etc are banking on / expect to happen.
I very much doubt it myself for a multitude of reasons, but its all so off the charts mad you just never know what's next.

Imreoir2 · 09-01-2019 11:30AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Brits often have long fuses but they do not like being told what to do.

I'm always mystified by the way that the Irish had the guts to stand up against the treaty of Lisbon being foisted upon them but then, a mere 16 months later, you caved in. Why?

We did not cave in, we got the changes we wanted to the treaty which is why it was passed on a bigger turn out of the electorate. It's not hard, please try a little harder to understand that we are not rabidly anti-EU in this country. Voting against the Lisbon treaty is not intended as some sort of blow against the EU, it is intended to change the treaty, which is what happened.

Enzokk · 09-01-2019 11:43AM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Its common for foreigners to be mystified as the way its reported abroad its frequently said that we were made to vote twice.
During the campaign there were "exaggerations" on the no side. The Irish government went back to the EU and got some guarantees to alleviate these. Then they went back to the people. The people, being adults, have the capacity to change their minds and did so. It's something you can do when stuff is clarified or fixed for you. Most Irish people don't really ideologically stick to a position and will vote for the way that benefits them most.

How novel that people would vote for their interests rather than the emblem the person stands behind.

Just a quick post on why we are where we are, lets have a look and see how Tory MPs think no-deal will shake out for the UK.

https://twitter.com/UKandEU/status/1082940253650993155

seamus · 09-01-2019 11:49AM

Russman wrote: »

I'm just wondering, despite all the statements and declarations, if the EU might "cave" at the last minute, just as DD, IDS etc are banking on / expect to happen.

Not a chance.

The only thing worse from an EU perspective than a no-deal Brexit, is caving in to UK demands.

That would be the end of the EU and the beginning of decades of economic turmoil and civil and military conflict in Europe.

Just a quick post on why we are where we are, lets have a look and see how Tory MPs think no-deal will shake out for the UK.

One thing to consider is that house prices in the UK may not actually be affected that badly. A devalued pound doesn't necessarily follow that the price of property drops.

The UK will still be a largely westernised, civilised, stable-ish nation. A cheap pound could see an influx of foreign money buying up houses and propping up house prices.

It does go to show though why house prices are not a measure of the health of an economy.

Water John · 09-01-2019 11:55AM

Parliament are about to force TM to act within 3 days if she loses the vote next week, no drifting.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/brexit-pm-may-be-forced-to-come-up-with-new-deal-three-days-after-commons-defeat

She has to return to HoC with a Plan, forcing her hand.

Enzokk · 09-01-2019 12:33PM

Water John wrote: »

Parliament are about to force TM to act within 3 days if she loses the vote next week, no drifting.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/brexit-pm-may-be-forced-to-come-up-with-new-deal-three-days-after-commons-defeat

She has to return to HoC with a Plan, forcing her hand.

Seems that the amendment has been selected by the speaker and it will be voted on. This will cause more arguments as the government thought the timetable motion was unamendable. There will be accusations that Bercow is trying to frustrate Brexit, then again maybe the government should have followed procedure themselves and not been found in contempt of parliament or delayed the vote in the first instance.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1082954410983153664

lawred2 · 09-01-2019 12:35PM

Water John wrote: »

Parliament are about to force TM to act within 3 days if she loses the vote next week, no drifting.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/brexit-pm-may-be-forced-to-come-up-with-new-deal-three-days-after-commons-defeat

She has to return to HoC with a Plan, forcing her hand.

a plan for what?

all that's left at that stage is cancellation or extension right?

If the plan is going back to Brussels for another mass then I give up

Professor Moriarty · 09-01-2019 12:37PM

seamus wrote: »

Not a chance.

The only thing worse from an EU perspective than a no-deal Brexit, is caving in to UK demands.

That would be the end of the EU and the beginning of decades of economic turmoil and civil and military conflict in Europe.

One thing to consider is that house prices in the UK may not actually be affected that badly. A devalued pound doesn't necessarily follow that the price of property drops.

The UK will still be a largely westernised, civilised, stable-ish nation. A cheap pound could see an influx of foreign money buying up houses and propping up house prices.

It does go to show though why house prices are not a measure of the health of an economy.

Further exacerbating a pre-existing housing crisis. And so it goes.

seamus · 09-01-2019 12:39PM

Water John wrote: »

Parliament are about to force TM to act within 3 days if she loses the vote next week, no drifting.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/brexit-pm-may-be-forced-to-come-up-with-new-deal-three-days-after-commons-defeat

She has to return to HoC with a Plan, forcing her hand.

More bluster and posturing. "If we don't like your plan, you have to go back and get a new one in 3 days without any direction on what we want".

I'm not sure what hand is being forced; she has no other hands to play. After 3 days, she'll come back with exactly the same plan, maybe with some assurances from the EU that are meaningless in reality (i.e. are already in the agreement), but are enough to call it "different".

Enzokk · 09-01-2019 12:40PM

lawred2 wrote: »

a plan for what?

all that's left at that stage is cancellation or extension right?

If the plan is going back to Brussels for another mass then I give up

Seems to me that there is a chess game happening now. They are trying to prevent Theresa May from delaying the next vote on her deal for long enough that she scares MPs into voting for it. I believe the intention of those who will vote for this is to get a second referendum but you can only get that if May is out of options and they are trying to prevent one of her options being to run down the clock to 28 March 2019.

Winters · 09-01-2019 12:49PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems to me that there is a chess game happening now. They are trying to prevent Theresa May from delaying the next vote on her deal for long enough that she scares MPs into voting for it. I believe the intention of those who will vote for this is to get a second referendum but you can only get that if May is out of options and they are trying to prevent one of her options being to run down the clock to 28 March 2019.

First Chequers now Chess? I give up..

Thomas_IV · 09-01-2019 12:50PM

seamus wrote: »

More bluster and posturing. "If we don't like your plan, you have to go back and get a new one in 3 days without any direction on what we want".

I'm not sure what hand is being forced; she has no other hands to play. After 3 days, she'll come back with exactly the same plan, maybe with some assurances from the EU that are meaningless in reality (i.e. are already in the agreement), but are enough to call it "different".

Quite so but the Circus has already entered its last performance.

Thomas_IV · 09-01-2019 12:52PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems to me that there is a chess game happening now. They are trying to prevent Theresa May from delaying the next vote on her deal for long enough that she scares MPs into voting for it. I believe the intention of those who will vote for this is to get a second referendum but you can only get that if May is out of options and they are trying to prevent one of her options being to run down the clock to 28 March 2019.

Just another term to describe this Brexit Charade. A chess game it was all along to me, but I always chose to see it like a third rate play in a shabby theatre.

Tell me how · 09-01-2019 12:53PM

seamus wrote: »

More bluster and posturing. "If we don't like your plan, you have to go back and get a new one in 3 days without any direction on what we want".

I'm not sure what hand is being forced; she has no other hands to play. After 3 days, she'll come back with exactly the same plan, maybe with some assurances from the EU that are meaningless in reality (i.e. are already in the agreement), but are enough to call it "different".

They know that. They know Europe is going to give her the don't call us, we'll call you.

They will want her to resign. Many in her party already do. The opposition do if it means a GE.

Thomas_IV · 09-01-2019 12:55PM

Tell me how wrote: »

They know that. They know Europe is going to give her the don't call us, we'll call you.

They will want her to resign. Many in her party already do. The opposition do if it means a GE.

That's what Corbyn is after.

Enzokk · 09-01-2019 12:56PM

Thomas_IV wrote: »

Just another term to describe this Brexit Charade. A chess game it was all along to me, but I always chose to see it like a third rate play in a shabby theatre.

Undoubtedly, but when has politicians ever really as a whole been in touch with their voters? They don't go through the same struggles and fears that their voters do day to day and in most cases they are much better off than their voters ever will be as well. For them politics is a game that is played, but for us voters it is our livelihoods.

seamus · 09-01-2019 12:57PM

Tell me how wrote: »

They know that. They know Europe is going to give her the don't call us, we'll call you.

They will want her to resign. Many in her party already do. The opposition do if it means a GE.

If it goes this way, then I'm just going to give up trying to guess what happens next.

Not that I've been right even once through this whole farce, but if they vote down the WA and send May back for "more", then anything could happen next. The collapse of Great Britain as a sovereign state? You know, it's not impossible.

Thomas_IV · 09-01-2019 12:57PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Undoubtedly, but when has politicians ever really as a whole been in touch with their voters? They don't go through the same struggles and fears that their voters do day to day and in most cases they are much better off than their voters ever will be as well. For them politics is a game that is played, but for us voters it is our livelihoods.

In the times of Clement Attlee.

Thomas_IV · 09-01-2019 12:59PM

seamus wrote: »

If it goes this way, then I'm just going to give up trying to guess what happens next.

Not that I've been right even once through this whole farce, but if they vote down the WA and send May back for "more", then anything could happen next. The collapse of Great Britain as a sovereign state? You know, it's not impossible.

I am reckoning with that.

Tell me how · 09-01-2019 01:00PM

seamus wrote: »

If it goes this way, then I'm just going to give up trying to guess what happens next.

Not that I've been right even once through this whole farce, but if they vote down the WA and send May back for "more", then anything could happen next. The collapse of Great Britain as a sovereign state? You know, it's not impossible.

Yes but can we really see the EU giving a preferable deal just to prevent a No Deal exit and whatever outcome may emerge from that.

If they do, surely they weaken their standing and will be held to some form of ransom in future negotiations.

Nody · 09-01-2019 01:28PM

lawred2 wrote: »

a plan for what?

all that's left at that stage is cancellation or extension right?

If the plan is going back to Brussels for another mass then I give up

Of course it will be to go back to Brussels as a plan; it's the only "plan" that she can do without having to actually do anything in practice and let the clock run down for a second vote.

Tell me how · 09-01-2019 01:36PM

Nody wrote: »

Of course it will be to go back to Brussels as a plan; it's the only "plan" that she can do without having to actually do anything in practice and let the clock run down for a second vote.

Labour have said today that they will forward a motion of No Confidence if she loses the Brexit vote. I'm not holding my breath that his will happen until they actually do so but if it does proceed, could we see enough conservatives vote for Theresa May's government just to retain power?

If not, then GE it is.

I imagine the DUP haggling will be immense between the declaration of the motion and the actual vote if it goes this way.

Leroy42 · 09-01-2019 01:36PM

I still do not see how a second vote is going to happen. There is simply not the numbers, or the will, to do it.

The risk to the HoC legitimacy if they resort to asking the people again will, IMO, be very real. And no political party is going to want to start that kind of crisis.

I still think the options are limited to TM Deal or No Deal. And No Deal, by default, wins due to the clock running out. MPs can have votes saying they will vote against it, but it isn't solely in the hands of the HoC. IDS rightly said yesterday that No Deal was inherent in the passing of the Art 50 legislation. Whilst many took that to mean it would be used as a bargaining chip, it is now very much a live reality.

So the only thing that can now stop No Deal is either HoC vote at the last minute (I believe this will go all the way into March) for TM Deal or the EU will cave. I cannot see either of this happening at the present time.

Leroy42 · 09-01-2019 01:38PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Labour have said today that they will forward a motion of No Confidence if she loses the Brexit vote. I'm not holding my breath that his will happen until they actually do so but if it does proceed, could we see enough conservatives vote for Theresa May's government just to retain power?

If not, then GE it is.

I imagine the DUP haggling will be immense between the declaration of the motion and the actual vote if it goes this way.

No way any Tory or DUP will vote in favour of a Labour No confidence motion. It would quite likely see them out of power for the next 10 years. Better to be in power making a mess of things than out of power.

Nody · 09-01-2019 01:39PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I still do not see how a second vote is going to happen. There is simply not the numbers, or the will, to do it.

To clarify when I say second vote I mean a second vote on May's deal and not a second ref vote

It's the only plan I can see May play at this stage which is a second vote on her deal when they are panicking as a last way out of it all.

Tell me how · 09-01-2019 01:40PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

No way any Tory or DUP will vote in favour of a Labour No confidence motion. It would quite likely see them out of power for the next 10 years. Better to be in power making a mess of things than out of power.

Yes but the numbers are so small as it is, a few errant conservatives just might make the difference.

I wouldn't rule out there being some just to break the impasse.

I actually suspect that some conservatives would actually rather be in opposition now (if they were sure of their seat).

FreudianSlippers · 09-01-2019 01:41PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I would agree Seamus, except for the extension of A50. I think the EU would be open to such an idea based on a 2nd ref (which I don't see happening, at least not with a remain option) or a GE.

If the 2nd ref is purely on the basis of Mays Deal or No deal I don't see the EU agreeing to an extension as that has been available for a few months now and extending A50 actually creates quite a few issues for the EU and they probably won't see it as worth it. In terms of the EU seeing an extension as allowing them more time to prepare for No Deal themselves, they have already issues their No Deal planning for items such as airtravel etc so there really isn't a need for a few weeks extension.

I think I might actually be arguing with my own point at this stage, that is the effect all this is having on me!

The only reason the EU should agree to extend Art 50 is to facilitate a second referendum.

Seth Brundle · 09-01-2019 01:41PM

Brendan O'Neill (he of Irish peasant descent) was interviewed on Newstalk this morning (~08:50).
The bones of it were how the EU is a big bad bully and undemocratic and not being fair on the UK when compared to how much the UK has compromised whereas the EU hasn't compromised at all.
Worst of all was that they were treated badly and called names by the nasty establishment. :rolleyes:

https://www.newstalk.com/listen_back/5/50477/09th_January_2019_-_Newstalk_Breakfast_Part_2/ (last 20% of show)

axer · 09-01-2019 01:42PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Given the government's majority, 20 pragmatic tories willing to vote against the government could well be a game-changer.

The particular issue at stake in this vote is not hugely significant in itself, but what the vote does mean is that there is a majority in the house willing to vote against the government in order to avert a no-deal Brexit, even if they don't know what the alternative is. In short, there is a majority who would rule out no-deal Brexit a priori, and require whatever is eventually delivered to be drawn from the menu of options that remain.

And that should give the ERG pause for thought. For, if we rule out no-deal Brexit, what remains is (a) Brexit on May's terms, or (b) no Brexit. (Any other possibility is just a fantasy at this point, and refinements like "ask for an A50 extension" dont' change the options, just the date on which the choice has to be made.) And this in turn means that if the ERG are successful in torpedoing May's Brexit, the likely upshot is no Brexit at all. Which should make them think twice about torpedoing May's Brexit.

But votes like this don't really matter. It doesn't really change anything. The real question is whether there are enough MPs to vote for a specific type of deal which really means are there enough votes to pass through legislation to force a delay or cancelling of A50. I think they are too divided to come together to do that. None of the other votes matter. Its down to vote for May's WA or vote for a delay or revoking of A50.

Thomas_IV · 09-01-2019 01:43PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

No way any Tory or DUP will vote in favour of a Labour No confidence motion. It would quite likely see them out of power for the next 10 years. Better to be in power making a mess of things than out of power.

Corbyn knows that, but he doesn't give much of a toss about it as he likes to have a 'little' gambling.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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