J Mysterio wrote: » Just as they, Mogg and the ERG, stated that May had their "full support" following the Tory confidence vote, before reverting to their plotting.
J Mysterio wrote: » I heard this disgraceful jackass this morning too. I was appalled that he was given the platform and doubly appalled that Shane Coleman gave him such am easy ride, useless 'discussion'.
Tell me how wrote: » Exactly, which is why they will look to bargain their votes to keep Conservatives in power.
J Mysterio wrote: » If it goes to a GE, the DUP can slink back to obscurity in NI and wait for the fallout.
Seth Brundle wrote: » Brendan O'Neill (he of Irish peasant descent) was interviewed on Newstalk this morning (~08:50). The bones of it were how the EU is a big bad bully and undemocratic and not being fair on the UK when compared to how much the UK has compromised whereas the EU hasn't compromised at all. Worst of all was that they were treated badly and called names by the nasty establishment. :rolleyes:https://www.newstalk.com/listen_back/5/50477/09th_January_2019_-_Newstalk_Breakfast_Part_2/ (last 20% of show)
Tell me how wrote: » Labour have said today that they will forward a motion of No Confidence if she loses the Brexit vote. I'm not holding my breath that his will happen until they actually do so but if it does proceed, could we see enough conservatives vote for Theresa May's government just to retain power? If not, then GE it is. I imagine the DUP haggling will be immense between the declaration of the motion and the actual vote if it goes this way.
Leroy42 wrote: » No way any Tory or DUP will vote in favour of a Labour No confidence motion. It would quite likely see them out of power for the next 10 years. Better to be in power making a mess of things than out of power.
Peregrinus wrote: » Given the government's majority, 20 pragmatic tories willing to vote against the government could well be a game-changer. The particular issue at stake in this vote is not hugely significant in itself, but what the vote does mean is that there is a majority in the house willing to vote against the government in order to avert a no-deal Brexit, even if they don't know what the alternative is. In short, there is a majority who would rule out no-deal Brexit a priori, and require whatever is eventually delivered to be drawn from the menu of options that remain. And that should give the ERG pause for thought. For, if we rule out no-deal Brexit, what remains is (a) Brexit on May's terms, or (b) no Brexit. (Any other possibility is just a fantasy at this point, and refinements like "ask for an A50 extension" dont' change the options, just the date on which the choice has to be made.) And this in turn means that if the ERG are successful in torpedoing May's Brexit, the likely upshot is no Brexit at all. Which should make them think twice about torpedoing May's Brexit.
Leroy42 wrote: » I would agree Seamus, except for the extension of A50. I think the EU would be open to such an idea based on a 2nd ref (which I don't see happening, at least not with a remain option) or a GE. If the 2nd ref is purely on the basis of Mays Deal or No deal I don't see the EU agreeing to an extension as that has been available for a few months now and extending A50 actually creates quite a few issues for the EU and they probably won't see it as worth it. In terms of the EU seeing an extension as allowing them more time to prepare for No Deal themselves, they have already issues their No Deal planning for items such as airtravel etc so there really isn't a need for a few weeks extension. I think I might actually be arguing with my own point at this stage, that is the effect all this is having on me!
Leroy42 wrote: » I still do not see how a second vote is going to happen. There is simply not the numbers, or the will, to do it.
Nody wrote: » Of course it will be to go back to Brussels as a plan; it's the only "plan" that she can do without having to actually do anything in practice and let the clock run down for a second vote.
lawred2 wrote: » a plan for what? all that's left at that stage is cancellation or extension right? If the plan is going back to Brussels for another mass then I give up
seamus wrote: » If it goes this way, then I'm just going to give up trying to guess what happens next. Not that I've been right even once through this whole farce, but if they vote down the WA and send May back for "more", then anything could happen next. The collapse of Great Britain as a sovereign state? You know, it's not impossible.
Enzokk wrote: » Undoubtedly, but when has politicians ever really as a whole been in touch with their voters? They don't go through the same struggles and fears that their voters do day to day and in most cases they are much better off than their voters ever will be as well. For them politics is a game that is played, but for us voters it is our livelihoods.
Tell me how wrote: » They know that. They know Europe is going to give her the don't call us, we'll call you. They will want her to resign. Many in her party already do. The opposition do if it means a GE.
Thomas_IV wrote: » Just another term to describe this Brexit Charade. A chess game it was all along to me, but I always chose to see it like a third rate play in a shabby theatre.
seamus wrote: » More bluster and posturing. "If we don't like your plan, you have to go back and get a new one in 3 days without any direction on what we want". I'm not sure what hand is being forced; she has no other hands to play. After 3 days, she'll come back with exactly the same plan, maybe with some assurances from the EU that are meaningless in reality (i.e. are already in the agreement), but are enough to call it "different".
Enzokk wrote: » Seems to me that there is a chess game happening now. They are trying to prevent Theresa May from delaying the next vote on her deal for long enough that she scares MPs into voting for it. I believe the intention of those who will vote for this is to get a second referendum but you can only get that if May is out of options and they are trying to prevent one of her options being to run down the clock to 28 March 2019.
Water John wrote: » Parliament are about to force TM to act within 3 days if she loses the vote next week, no drifting.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/09/brexit-pm-may-be-forced-to-come-up-with-new-deal-three-days-after-commons-defeat She has to return to HoC with a Plan, forcing her hand.
