Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Pa8301 · 12-12-2018 11:35AM

Tropheus wrote: »

Jonathan Lis had an interesting theory on Twitter. May loyalists submitted false letters to trigger the vote and get it out of the way quickly thus preventing another push for 12 months.

I was thinking that could be the case but then I realised I might be giving May too much credit!

McGiver · 12-12-2018 11:38AM

Hurrache wrote: »

Pragmatically we're all team May for today, but it's incredible entertainment all the same as to what may happen.

I think the best outcome for the opposition is if May wins but by rather narrow margin. Corbyn could then call for a no confidence motion argueing that the PM has no authority. Also, he would probably do the same if she loses. If she wins by a good margin then it's not so good, but as she can't get the WA through HoC, no confidence vote from the opposition will likely come regardless.

MrMusician18 · 12-12-2018 11:43AM

Pa8301 wrote: »

I was thinking that could be the case but then I realised I might be giving May too much credit!

I had thought this too, and would have made sense perhaps a few months ago. However, asking the question risks getting the answer you don't want as well.

It's a high stakes gamble of she did. It also risks enraging some Tory's, enough so they may back an opposition motion of no confidence in the government.

As an aside, 24hr rolling news as entertainment and instant reactions on social media are definitely feeding this monster. Politics needs to look at how it interacts with these technologies

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 11:45AM

Theresa Mays odds on survival currently on Paddy Power.

Win: 2/7
Lose: 12/5

Shelga · 12-12-2018 11:50AM

The people who want a second referendum should drive home the point that if the UK crashes out and looks to rejoin within 5-10 years, they will have to give up sterling and join the eurozone.

Borderhopper · 12-12-2018 11:50AM

Alternatively, it may be that Mays supporters have also submitted letters to the 1922 committee. Flushing the game, as it were. It's as plausible as anything else that has happened in the past 3 years.

Seriously though, it is possible that this vote of no confidence is a result of a miscalculation on the part of both sides- as I understand it, unless publicised by the signatories, it is unknown how many letters have been submitted

EKRIUQ · 12-12-2018 11:56AM

BBC are now saying that May will win comfortable tonight unless the private ballots change everything.

But she easily has the numbers at the moment.

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 11:58AM

Shelga wrote: »

The people who want a second referendum should drive home the point that if the UK crashes out and looks to rejoin within 5-10 years, they will have to give up sterling and join the eurozone.

From the Donald Trump school of negotiating.

Europe wants the UK within the EU. They want them to feel welcome and not to feel like they have been taken advantage of (see Germany after treaty of Versailles for how that worked out) as that will only allow resentment to fester which cannot end well.

Podge_irl · 12-12-2018 11:58AM

EKRIUQ wrote: »

BBC are now saying that May will win comfortable tonight unless the private ballots change everything.

But she easily has the numbers at the moment.

Considering how laboured and arduous it appeared to be to get the 48 letters required in the first place I would be surprised if she faces substantially more than that number of votes of no confidence.

VinLieger · 12-12-2018 12:00PM

Shelga wrote: »

The people who want a second referendum should drive home the point that if the UK crashes out and looks to rejoin within 5-10 years, they will have to give up sterling and join the eurozone.

Why would this happen? If anything its just playing into the hands of the brexiteers by confirming all the fears and lies they've been telling people about the EU.

Punishing them if they want to return achieves absolutely nothing.

10000maniacs · 12-12-2018 12:01PM

I think May will win the no confidence vote but will lose any "meaningful" votes. The EU won't budge on anything so a hard Brexit lurks in 100 days time.

seamus · 12-12-2018 12:01PM

Tell me how wrote: »

From the Donald Trump school of negotiating.

Europe wants the UK within the EU. They want them to feel welcome and not to feel like they have been taken advantage of (see Germany after treaty of Versailles for how that worked out) as that will only allow resentment to fester which cannot end well.

If the UK reapplies for membership, they won't have any special exemptions from the core requirements of membership.

The EU has already proven that it's not willing to compromise internal stability for the sake of an obstreperous nation that can't see past its own rose-tinted history.

Special status for the UK to rejoin would be the end of the EU.

But they certainly shouldn't be playing the, "It'll be harder to get back in later" card. As others say, this will only come across as punishment.

Leroy42 · 12-12-2018 12:01PM

Tell me how wrote: »

From the Donald Trump school of negotiating.

Europe wants the UK within the EU. They want them to feel welcome and not to feel like they have been taken advantage of (see Germany after treaty of Versailles for how that worked out) as that will only allow resentment to fester which cannot end well.

Good point, but the EU will also want assurances that the UK have now bought into the EU project and not just going back in cause they couldn't find anything better but will be off as soon as they do.

More integration would help cement that. Joining the Euro would be a massive signal. If the UK are so against that then do they really want to rejoin is the question they need to ask.

Because of the big selling points of Brexit was not the EU of today, so much as the dislike for the EU of tomorrow. Cancelling A50 or rejoining doesn't change the fact that the UK does not like the way the EU is evolving.

alchemist33 · 12-12-2018 12:01PM

devnull wrote: »

Mogg is clearly worried she will win tonight

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1072784374163218432

A reply to that, similar to what a poster said earlier...

"You had a vote two years ago. She won. You can't just ask for another one because you don't like the result. May means May"

Podge_irl · 12-12-2018 12:06PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Why would this happen? If anything its just playing into the hands of the brexiteers by confirming all the fears and lies they've been telling people about the EU.

Punishing them if they want to return achieves absolutely nothing.

Any new country joining the EU has to commit to the Euro and Schengen in principle.

It is not punishment, it is simply enforcing the rules in a rule-based organisation. A concept that many in the UK are still struggling to get their heads around.

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 12:06PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Good point, but the EU will also want assurances that the UK have now bought into the EU project and not just going back in cause they couldn't find anything better but will be off as soon as they do.

More integration would help cement that. Joining the Euro would be a massive signal. If the UK are so against that then do they really want to rejoin is the question they need to ask.

Because of the big selling points of Brexit was not the EU of today, so much as the dislike for the EU of tomorrow. Cancelling A50 or rejoining doesn't change the fact that the UK does not like the way the EU is evolving.

Yes more integration would help the EU project. But, it would be outweighed by an injured UK media (who will lose their sh*t if the EU make them join the Euro as some form of penalty). I think that the EU would trust that if they were back in, the memory of this experience would keep them in for at least a generation.

Other countries may look for the UK to pay for their petulance but while there might be some token to indicate commitment, it most definitely will not be sacrificing the pound.

Professor Moriarty · 12-12-2018 12:07PM

If May wins decisively, it will be a serious punch in the mouth for the ERG and Jacob in particular. Metaphorically speaking, sadly.

VinLieger · 12-12-2018 12:08PM

Podge_irl wrote: »

Any new country joining the EU has to commit to the Euro and Schengen in principle.

It is not punishment, it is simply enforcing the rules in a rule-based organisation. A concept that many in the UK are still struggling to get their heads around.

I understand that but theres no point in throwing it in their faces right now as it simply plays into the brexiteers hands by confirming what theyve said about the EU

VinLieger · 12-12-2018 12:08PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If May wins decisively, it will be a serious punch in the mouth for the ERG and Jacob in particular. Metaphorically speaking, sadly.

Ahh but we all know even if she does win decisively he will ignore it and keep yammering on as if nothing happened

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 12:12PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Ahh but we all know even if she does win decisively he will ignore it and keep yammering on as if nothing happened

Speaker on Pat Kenny this morning suggested that if she wins today, that Labour could use this to trigger a no confidence vote in the government and that it could be that which finally brings her down.

This whole experience from Cameron announcing the referendum to now is literally the M. Night Shyamalan version of a political event.

Podge_irl · 12-12-2018 12:12PM

VinLieger wrote: »

I understand that but theres no point in throwing it in their faces right now as it simply plays into the brexiteers hands by confirming what theyve said about the EU

I think any talk of rejoining in general will be scoffed at by Brexiteers.

The point still stands that if they want to rejoin they will, in all liklihood, have to sign up to the Euro and Schengen though. Statements of facts remain statements of fact, even if they annoy some people. It also doesn't confirm what they are saying about the EU to be honest, but they want to think that and little will stop them.

Leroy42 · 12-12-2018 12:20PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Yes more integration would help the EU project. But, it would be outweighed by an injured UK media (who will lose their sh*t if the EU make them join the Euro as some form of penalty). I think that the EU would trust that if they were back in, the memory of this experience would keep them in for at least a generation.

Other countries may look for the UK to pay for their petulance but while there might be some token to indicate commitment, it most definitely will not be sacrificing the pound.

At this point do you think that anything will be sufficient to help the injured UK media.

It is about making a decision. Even now, TM is not being honest. Had she explained the trade off's during the process (either fully out and all that entails or NI remains etc) they wouldn't be in the mess they are now.

They thought about leaving but maybe will think better of it in the future. But simply coming back solves nothing, except for them. It still leaves the "in the EU, but not really" problem and thus the UK needs to decide where they want to be, where they see the future.

snailsong · 12-12-2018 12:21PM

Tell me how wrote: »

VinLieger wrote: »

Ahh but we all know even if she does win decisively he will ignore it and keep yammering on as if nothing happened

Speaker on Pat Kenny this morning suggested that if she wins today, that Labour could use this to trigger a no confidence vote in the government and that it could be that which finally brings her down.

This whole experience from Cameron announcing the referendum to now is literally the M. Night Shyamalan version of a political event.

If May wins today, and it seems she will, then she can't be ousted as Tory leader for a year. Thus, if Labour could precipitate a GE May will lead the Tories if she so wishes. What will be the campaign policy? The WA that she has demonstrated she can't get through parliament? Crash out? New WA which is clearly unavailable? No Brexit.

Laois_Man · 12-12-2018 12:22PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Speaker on Pat Kenny this morning suggested that if she wins today, that Labour could use this to trigger a no confidence vote in the government and that it could be that which finally brings her down.

Labour don't actually want to bring her down!

listermint · 12-12-2018 12:23PM

Shelga wrote: »

Any chance of a reduction in property prices??- so some of us may have some hope of buying somewhere before we’re 40?

No? Carry on.

Reduction in property prices means a reduction in economic activity i.e the banks won't lend . So you wouldn't be getting it either way

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 12:26PM

snailsong wrote: »

If May wins today, and it seems she will, then she can't be ousted as Tory leader for a year. Thus, if Labour could precipitate a GE May will lead the Tories if she so wishes. What will be the campaign policy? The WA that she has demonstrated she can't get through parliament? Crash out? New WA which is clearly unavailable? No Brexit.

If May wins today and Labour do engineer a GE she will resign. I would be 100% sure of that. She would gain nothing being leader of the Tories as they are decimated just so she could sit on the opposition bench.

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 12:28PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Labour don't actually want to bring her down!

Yes, I've felt that previously and said it here that they want to remain on the outside at the moment. I'm just repeating what the commentator on PK was saying.

VinLieger · 12-12-2018 12:28PM

Tell me how wrote: »

If May wins today and Labour do engineer a GE she will resign. I would be 100% sure of that. She would gain nothing being leader of the Tories as they are decimated just so she could sit on the opposition bench.

But would they be decimated? I could see them indeed losing but getting decimated is a reach considering how poor labour have consistently been polling under corbyns leadership.

robinph · 12-12-2018 12:29PM

snailsong wrote: »

If May wins today, and it seems she will, then she can't be ousted as Tory leader for a year. Thus, if Labour could precipitate a GE May will lead the Tories if she so wishes. What will be the campaign policy? The WA that she has demonstrated she can't get through parliament? Crash out? New WA which is clearly unavailable? No Brexit.

A general election can't happen before the deadline date as they are out of time. Triggering the leadup to an election though wouldn't be enough for the EU to grant an extension to A50 until it is over, unless Corbyn's position was stated as being No Brexit. If Labour is still in the wanting a Brexit but not May's version camp then the EU will just stick with things as they are and wait for crash out during the election campaign.

Corbyn probably then wins by default, but it's too late to do anything about it by then.

Inquitus · 12-12-2018 12:31PM

2nd Referendum is nearly into evens now best priced at 11/10

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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