Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LeinsterDub · 11-12-2018 06:29PM

Enzokk wrote: »

But SF is not involved in any stage of negotiations nor are in power in any government to influence anything so they cannot influence what Brexit is achieved so I fail to see how the DUP could claim what Brexit they want.

It's the North and Brexit , a little thing like facts aren't important

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what?
The DUP are to be protected from the mention of a UI?

I think we are past the 'please be sensitive to Unionists' phase. FG have finally seen the light there - that there is no point being 'nice'. Speak your mind honestly.

I was more thinking don't interrupt when your enemy is making a mistake

hill16bhoy · 11-12-2018 06:42PM

briany wrote: »

There would be some outstanding questions about a UI. There's the financial aspect, and also the socio-political aspect. The new state would be taking on close to a million people who identify as British, and a good chunk of whom would have voted in the negative in the border poll. Their views and concerns would have to be accommodated. To not do this would make a mockery of the ideals that the flag of Ireland represented before it was co-opted in the North by those of a Republican bent. Those ideals being about peace between the two traditions.

It might be a bit of a hard pill to swallow for some Irish people, but we would at least have to extend the hand of compromise (whether it's slapped away is a different matter). Otherwise, a UI might not be that great of an idea, from a sociological standpoint at least.

Any prospective united Ireland would really require the following if violence was to be avoided;

i) a new national flag
ii) a new national anthem
iii) federal status for the six counties, ie. Stormont would be retained, but the six counties would also have Dail representation
iv) Some say for Britain in the affairs of the North, ie. a role reversal for Ireland and Britain as regards the current status
v) The six counties would retain Commonwealth membership and British passport eligibility
vi) You'd probably have to throw in a couple of other sweeteners - ie. Ulster Scots would be recognised under a language act (even if it's a joke of a "language"), the Northern Ireland football team would still exist.

Then there's the fate of the NHS there etc., which very few would want to give up.

Junkyard Tom · 11-12-2018 06:45PM

blanch152 wrote: »

it would require cross-community buy-in.

No it wouldn't. 21st Century one-person-one-vote applies, there is no unionist veto. You know all this though and have been told it numerous times before and yet you persist. Why?

The idea that nationalists outbreed unionists to 50% plus 1 and then sign up to a united Ireland under existing laws of the Republic would be abhorrent to the principles of the GFA where existing traditions are respected and integrated.

Non sequitur. You know it's funny to read people getting their knickers in a twist over the idea that a sectarian statelet created to maintain a Protestant/Unionist majority gets dismantled by its demise.

You're literally hankering for the sectarian/political privileges that Protestants/Unionists no longer hold and never will again.

joe40 · 11-12-2018 06:48PM

Is there a chance we have talked ourselves into a corner with the backstop. I fully appreciate the need to avoid a hard border as much as anyone (i'm a cross border worker).
However if this is the thing which precipitates a no deal brexit we are left with the hardest of all borders. I'm starting to lose my nerve here watching sterling go down. Purely selfish I know.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 06:50PM

Bambi wrote: »

Break up of the United Kingdom too, for good measure.

Won't be much of a victory if the Loyalists wind up going boogaloo to any sustained degree

i know this is AH but even by its lowly standards, people here are really in danger of losing the run of themselves.
and people accused Brexiters of fear-mongering!

blanch152 · 11-12-2018 06:51PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So what?
The DUP are to be protected from the mention of a UI?

I think we are past the 'please be sensitive to Unionists' phase. FG have finally seen the light there - that there is no point being 'nice'. Speak your mind honestly.

It is not about the DUP, you need to get that fixation out of your mind.

It is about the provisions of the GFA. They are nowhere near being fulfilled, which means talk of a border poll is only provocative and aimed at hardening minds rather than reaching out.

It was a very poor judgment call by Mary Lou, but I suspect her heart wasn't in it and she was acting under orders from the boys in Belfast.

joe40 · 11-12-2018 06:52PM

In terms of a united ireland I think it is entirely possible in the medium term but I think the best way would be a long planned and gradual transition. Maybe even a 10 or 20 year handover time. Similar to Hong kong going to chinese rule

Infini · 11-12-2018 06:52PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

To these peoples minds the EU is either run by the Germans or the Germans and the French and they simply can't grasp why the EU is backing up one of it's own .

The irony is those shytetalkers think they're able to throw Ireland under the bus to suit their interest not realising that were actually driving the EU freight train and theyre the ones about to throw themselves under it for being thick idiots and not accepting reality.

FrancieBrady · 11-12-2018 06:53PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

It's the North and Brexit , a little thing like facts aren't important

I was more thinking don't interrupt when your enemy is making a mistake

Brexit - When Ireland's political parties finally stopped being embarrassed to mention the desire to see this island united. Huge progress.

judeboy101 · 11-12-2018 06:54PM

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance we have talked ourselves into a corner with the backstop. I fully appreciate the need to avoid a hard border as much as anyone (i'm a cross border worker).
However if this is the thing which precipitates a no deal brexit we are left with the hardest of all borders. I'm starting to lose my nerve here watching sterling go down. Purely selfish I know.

There will be no border even if a no deal. Brits won't do it, Leo won't. It'll take years before wto drag us to court over it. Eu won't force us, they'll just make cta the border, we will get treated like uk til it get sorted.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 06:57PM

Rory28 wrote: »

What are you on about?

apologies Rory, but i really think we are getting ahead of ourselves.
nothing personal.

Headshot · 11-12-2018 07:05PM

It's great being part a group like the EU that look after their members.

Great to hear our fellow europeans saying they are with our Irish friends.

Mr.Nice Guy · 11-12-2018 07:07PM

Rory28 wrote: »

While I would love to see a United Ireland is it something we can afford?

David McWilliams has argued in favour of it recently:

The UK’s annual subvention is just over €10bn annually. When seen from the perspective of the North, with its total GDP of under €50bn, it looks like a significant figure — but when seen from the perspective of Dublin, it is not insurmountable. The usual way financial markets assess whether national expenditure and debts are sustainable is the debt/GDP ratio. Northern Ireland would cost less than 4 per cent of the Irish Republic’s GDP annually. Of course, even this manageable figure would end up lower because the combined Irish GDP of the Republic combined with the North would be well over €300 billion, reducing the subvention as a percentage of income yet more. In pure budgetary terms, there is little doubt that the Republic’s economy could absorb the North and this is before the commercial dynamism of unification kicks in.

https://www.ft.com/content/7d5244a0-f22d-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d

dr.fuzzenstein · 11-12-2018 07:08PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

i know this is AH but even by its lowly standards, people here are really in danger of losing the run of themselves.
and people accused Brexiters of fear-mongering!

I think you took a wrong turn somewhere...

Call me Al · 11-12-2018 07:09PM

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance we have talked ourselves into a corner with the backstop. I fully appreciate the need to avoid a hard border as much as anyone (i'm a cross border worker).
However if this is the thing which precipitates a no deal brexit we are left with the hardest of all borders. I'm starting to lose my nerve here watching sterling go down. Purely selfish I know.

There's a hard border either way if they end up leaving in no deal or hard brexit, which is what many over there are clawing for.
The way I see it the Irish govt is as well to hold its nerve as these alternatives are 6 of one and half dozen of the other when it come to the border.
If the UK gov't has this magic technology they keep telling us about then what's the problem with the backstop?!

Strazdas · 11-12-2018 07:12PM

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance we have talked ourselves into a corner with the backstop. I fully appreciate the need to avoid a hard border as much as anyone (i'm a cross border worker).
However if this is the thing which precipitates a no deal brexit we are left with the hardest of all borders. I'm starting to lose my nerve here watching sterling go down. Purely selfish I know.

I was listening to a German commentator on Sky News this evening and he says the backstop probably is needed : he reckons British politics is so unstable and they are so divided that Ireland and the EU have no choice but to insist on the backstop (otherwise the Brexiteers could renege on it five minutes later).

A Dub in Glasgo · 11-12-2018 07:13PM

Call me Al wrote: »

There's a hard border either way if they end up leaving in no deal or hard brexit, which is what many over there are clawing for.
The way I see it the Irish govt is as well to hold its nerve as these alternatives are 6 of one and half dozen of the other when it come to the border.
If the UK gov't has this magic technology they keep telling us about then what's the problem with the backstop?!

That is correct, the only reason they want the backstop diluted us to ditch it later

Lollipop95 · 11-12-2018 07:14PM

So is the postponed vote that was due to take place today now being shelved for another time? Is there an official date for it to be held again?

Frank Bullitt · 11-12-2018 07:15PM

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1072553590777090049

Long and frank discussions...

I can see A50 being canceled or something along those lines.

The Rape of Lucretia · 11-12-2018 07:22PM

Even as a Remainer, and even today, Mays language betrays the inherent disconnect between the UK and the rest of Europe :

"Asked whether she had been told that the 48 letters to trigger a no confidence motion in her as Conservative leader had been received, May said: “No, I have been here in Europe dealing with the issue I have promised parliament I would be dealing with.”"

People from no other European country would use the term 'Europe' in that sense of it being a place, that is abroad.

bob mcbob · 11-12-2018 07:24PM

Interesting article in guardian. They separated the opinions into 4 different groups

- Diehards (enthusiastic Brexiteers)
- Cautious optimists (both leave and remainers)
- Accepting pragmatists (remainers who believe ref should be honoured)
- Devastated Pessimists (no benefit to be gained from leaving EU)

They are tracking views among these groups.

Last weekend the Diehards fell from a third to a quarter.
Devastated Pessimists increased by 5% and are now the largest group.

The only thing they agreed on was Mays deal was bad.

Full article here

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/11/brexit-study-finds-significant-decrease-in-diehard-leave-backers

Hurrache · 11-12-2018 07:24PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Newsnight blog...

It's somewhat comforting that the vast majority of replies are of the sensible "that sums up the problem with members of the Tory Party/what did the British think the Irish were going to do" type.

demfad · 11-12-2018 07:27PM

megatron989 wrote: »

I'd be worried that a second vote, one which offered an out, which would likely win depending on what media or poll you believe, would kick off some serious backlash.

The remain side have been unhappy thus far but they don't riot or kick off about it. If remain got a second shot and won out, even by a clear majority unlike the first vote, I'd think the Brexit supporting side would loose it's collective mind and throw an absolute wobbler. Something to make the french stop and look even.

They could only get 3k for their big leave means leave march this week.
Vast majority of UK population are easy going. If they were violent after defeat they would extinguish themselves.

Another referendum of revocation is the right thing to do.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 07:30PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

John Major telling it like it is in a speech last night:

“...a hard border, now or at the end of a long transition period or at any time would be disastrous. Peace isn’t secure, it never is and any new border would be a focus for the wild men on the fringes to reactivate old disputes and hatreds that should be laid to rest forever.”

while Major was a decent bloke, he is yesterday's man.
i dont think the majority of young people in the Uk even know who he is, and nobody really cares what he thinks tbh.

tuxy · 11-12-2018 07:34PM

Lollipop95 wrote: »

So is the postponed vote that was due to take place today now being shelved for another time? Is there an official date for it to be held again?

Can be delayed until the 28 of March if she wants, if she is still in power.

MrMusician18 · 11-12-2018 07:36PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Any prospective united Ireland would really require the following if violence was to be avoided;

i) a new national flag
ii) a new national anthem
iii) federal status for the six counties, ie. Stormont would be retained, but the six counties would also have Dail representation
iv) Some say for Britain in the affairs of the North, ie. a role reversal for Ireland and Britain as regards the current status
v) The six counties would retain Commonwealth membership and British passport eligibility
vi) You'd probably have to throw in a couple of other sweeteners - ie. Ulster Scots would be recognised under a language act (even if it's a joke of a "language"), the Northern Ireland football team would still exist.

Then there's the fate of the NHS there etc., which very few would want to give up.

A number of those changes would require constitutional amendments. They would never pass unless they were a requirement to win unification. The thing is, unification already has broad support in the present day republic without these sops to what would be less than a 10% minority in a unified island.

Unification will be on a Hong Kong/present day NI hybrid model.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 07:41PM

tuxy wrote: »

Can be delayed until the 28 of March if she wants, if she is still in power.

do you really think she is "in power"
she may be PM, but she is effectively as much in power as Neil Kinnock was after he went frolicking on that beach in Brighton.
only difference is Kinnock didn't look as silly.

Dyr · 11-12-2018 07:41PM

blanch152 wrote: »

It is not about the DUP, you need to get that fixation out of your mind.

It is about the provisions of the GFA. They are nowhere near being fulfilled, which means talk of a border poll is only provocative and aimed at hardening minds rather than reaching out.

It was a very poor judgment call by Mary Lou, but I suspect her heart wasn't in it and she was acting under orders from the boys in Belfast.

There's a colossal lack of self awareness required for you to accuse someone of being fixated on a political party

Also, were you not the poster who started a thread about the GFA wherein you kept claiming there the brits could walk away from it whenever they felt like it.

fash · 11-12-2018 07:43PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Even as a Remainer, and even today, Mays language betrays the inherent disconnect between the UK and the rest of Europe :

"Asked whether she had been told that the 48 letters to trigger a no confidence motion in her as Conservative leader had been received, May said: “No, I have been here in Europe dealing with the issue I have promised parliament I would be dealing with.”"

People from no other European country would use the term 'Europe' in that sense of it being a place, that is abroad.

Not sure anyone could think she is a remainer - she is at best agnostic and mostly just does what wins votes.

As regards her very British understanding of "the foreign Europeans", there was also this example:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/921314300723154945

May: I'll take a question from some of our European colleagues?

British voice. "We're all European"

Laughter

Hurrache · 11-12-2018 07:46PM

This is real The Thick of it stuff, is her being unable to get out of her car a metaphor for everything happening now
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1072558481243365377?s=09

And Femi for the last hour or so has been laying it thick as to how nobody should be surprised, or annoyed, with how Ireland has dealt with the backdrop giving our history with Britain. It may open a few eyes.
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1072553312061403137?s=19
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1052269710216179717?s=19

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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