Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

RobMc59 · 02-12-2018 01:59PM

First Up wrote: »

If your research only extends as far as Googling something, you are a long way off the pace.

I'm the 1st to admit I'm no Bill Gates so if you are aware of a way I can improve my understanding of the whole bewildering car crash that is Brexit please share your knowledge with me.

CelticRambler · 02-12-2018 02:11PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

On the contrary,the UK does understand the concept of hierarchy ...

Yes, that's the point: Britain believes passionately in hierarchy - some people deserve to be higher up than others (c.f. the monarchy, the House of Lords, public schools, FPTP elections, etc, etc). That is an attitude that conflicts with the more egalitarian, generally socialist way of life of continental Europe.

Contrary to popular GB belief, there is no hierarchy in the EU - so a little country like Ireland (or Luxembourg) can quite easily defeat a giant like France on - to pick an example from this week - digital tax. In effect, you are thinking like Prof Moriarty earlier (be stronger, wound the enemy) when in fact the EU engages in competition based on compromise - something that has completely flummoxed the British Brexit negotiators.

RobMc59 wrote: »

sticking it to Ireland isn't the reason the brexiteers want to exit-its a misguided idea that the UK is having to take laws from Germany and France-I don't think Ireland entered their empty heads for a millisecond.

Exactly! Up to the start of the WA negotiations, the Brextieers' myopia was so severe, the complication that is "and Northern Ireland" never registered, so they couldn't see the gaping hole in many of their proclamations. On this forum, way back in 2015-2016, we discussed the inherent contradictions that any kind of Brexit would face if/when Leave won the referendum, and everything we identified as an Ireland-related problem in the making has turned out to be a big problem for the Brexiteers. Fortunately for the RoI, all Irish (mainstream) politicians have had their eye on that ball since the referendum result was announced, and have played as team.

Buy hey, it's a wet Sunday afternoon (here in France at least, where the peasants are revolting again :rolleyes: ) - time for some Foil, Arms & Hog therapy:

CelticRambler · 02-12-2018 02:18PM

First Up wrote: »

If your research only extends as far as Googling something, you are a long way off the pace.

:eek: Ah feck ... I regular do research for a living, and always start with a good google. Have I been doing it wrong all this time ...?

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm the 1st to admit I'm no Bill Gates so if you are aware of a way I can improve my understanding of the whole bewildering car crash that is Brexit please share your knowledge with me.

Brexit defies understanding, so I wouldn't try too hard ...

... but how about finding the version of this thread from around the early days post-referendum (don't know if that was II or III) and seeing how things looked to us outsiders at that time?

First Up · 02-12-2018 02:59PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

If your research only extends as far as Googling something, you are a long way off the pace.

:eek: Ah feck ... I regular do research for a living, and always start with a good google. Have I been doing it wrong all this time ...?

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm the 1st to admit I'm no Bill Gates so if you are aware of a way I can improve my understanding of the whole bewildering car crash that is Brexit please share your knowledge with me.

Brexit defies understanding, so I wouldn't try too hard ...
... but how about finding the version of this thread from around the early days post-referendum (don't know if that was II or III) and seeing how things looked to us outsiders at that time?

By all means start with Google.

But don't stop there.

02-12-2018 03:07PM

Sorry for asking this question again, but if May's Brexit was voted through (unlikely), would it mitigate a lot of the negatives for Ireland?

Water John · 02-12-2018 03:14PM

Well it's better for us than facing a Crash out Brexit, but its nuts for the UK itself.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-12-2018 03:17PM

The other way to look up Brexit is to "Follow the money"

Don't get sidetracked on the conspiracy theory stuff and the slush funds.

Not because it didn't happen, but because it's too late to undo.
(eg. the way the Metro Ad campaign was done would be illegal now )
But if there is a second referendum or election or public campaign than rather than waste time arguing it would be nice if someone made a list of all the stuff that's been proven.

The oldest question is - "who benefits ?"
Economically it looks like only disaster capitalists , asset strippers and short sellers will benefit in the short to medium term.

Politically, at it's heart Brexit is a Troy in-fight that's destroying the party. Labour have their own in-fight too. Lots more losers than winners.

Take back control ? - Like "support our troops" it's completely meaningless without context.

The UK already has complete control of non-EU immigration, and has complete control of EU Jobseekers after 6 months. Last year immigration from the EU slowed down, but non-EU immigration ramped up. Complete red herring. And don't mention the power grab over Scotland or the Northern Ireland Assembly.

There's been no evidence that any country will give the UK as good a deal as the the UK already gets through EU deals with that country. Southern Africa got billions in Aid, India wants Visa, For New Zealand food exports the EU is far more profitable than the UK. The US isn't even pretending that a deal will be anything other than America First. The new deal for trans-Atlantic flights means it's back to the bad old days where US airlines could make multiple hops in Europe before a trans-Atlantic flight but UK airlines can't. And in practice it'll be the US that gets to decide which Airlines qualify.

So maybe look at who is making noises about these deals and how they could benefit ? There's more than one hard Brexiteer with dual passports and fingers in foreign pies. "I'm alright, Jack"

mickoneill31 · 02-12-2018 03:48PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'm the 1st to admit I'm no Bill Gates so if you are aware of a way I can improve my understanding of the whole bewildering car crash that is Brexit please share your knowledge with me.

I find podcasts are a good way of educating myself on the subject.
I listen to more than this but these two are pretty good.

Tony Connellys Brexit Republic.

Fog in the Channel is also good from a French persons point of view.

Cakewatch - This is from the perspective of a couple of anti Brexit beaureaucrats. But they know their stuff as to how the EU works and they've worked in drafting agreements.

There's also "3 Blokes in a pub" on Youtube. They take a different topic each week and try to have an expert on the subject so they're not just waffling on about it.

I know the last two are anti Brexit. I tried listening to the pro Brexit side of the podcasts but they don't typically try to get any expert opinion. You'll have somebody from the Telegraph or a Brexiter telling you how it's all going to be a land of milk and honey or it's the EUs fault. If somebody has any suggestions of a pro Brexit podcast that tries to present the Brexit side with some evidence or facts I wouldn't mind listening to it.

Water John · 02-12-2018 03:52PM

Hope someone has a genuine pro Brexit esp Crash out one. But then when you're selling snake oil...

Strazdas · 02-12-2018 05:22PM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I find podcasts are a good way of educating myself on the subject.
I listen to more than this but these two are pretty good.

Tony Connellys Brexit Republic.

Fog in the Channel is also good from a French persons point of view.

Cakewatch - This is from the perspective of a couple of anti Brexit beaureaucrats. But they know their stuff as to how the EU works and they've worked in drafting agreements.

There's also "3 Blokes in a pub" on Youtube. They take a different topic each week and try to have an expert on the subject so they're not just waffling on about it.

I know the last two are anti Brexit. I tried listening to the pro Brexit side of the podcasts but they don't typically try to get any expert opinion. You'll have somebody from the Telegraph or a Brexiter telling you how it's all going to be a land of milk and honey or it's the EUs fault. If somebody has any suggestions of a pro Brexit podcast that tries to present the Brexit side with some evidence or facts I wouldn't mind listening to it.

We're at the stage now where Brexiteers are openly admitting Brexit will be very bad for the economy but it should be ploughed ahead with, as it means Britain regaining sovereignty. A purely political / ideological viewpoint.

Peregrinus · 02-12-2018 06:18PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Sorry for asking this question again, but if May's Brexit was voted through (unlikely), would it mitigate a lot of the negatives for Ireland?

Mitigate, yes. It would do much less harm than a crash-out, or a very hard brexit. But eliminate, no. it would still be harmful. There is no version of Brexit which is not harmful to Ireland.

trellheim · 02-12-2018 06:19PM

Brexiteers are openly admitting Brexit will be very bad for the economy but it should be ploughed ahead with, as it means Britain regaining sovereignty. A purely political / ideological viewpoint.

Was it not the same for us in 1922

Peregrinus · 02-12-2018 06:26PM

trellheim wrote: »

Was it not the same for us in 1922

Not really. The union with Great Britain was very bad for Ireland in economic terms, so leaving it wasn't obviously harmful. Whereas the European Union has been hugely beneficial for the UK in economic terms, so leaving it looks obviously economically harmful.

briany · 02-12-2018 06:38PM

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal? Would the EU have Ireland erect an inward border on March 30th? How long could the UK get away with having no border on their side, as JRM et al have been suggesting the UK should do? On The View (no, not that one) Kate Hoey mentioned some WTO clause about the Most Favoured Nations rule that relaxed the need for a border in potential trouble/conflict zones. Is this waffle?

judeboy101 · 02-12-2018 07:14PM

briany wrote: »

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal? Would the EU have Ireland erect an inward border on March 30th? How long could the UK get away with having no border on their side, as JRM et al have been suggesting the UK should do? On The View (no, not that one) Kate Hoey mentioned some WTO clause about the Most Favoured Nations rule that relaxed the need for a border in potential trouble/conflict zones. Is this waffle?

Could take years for wto to pull the lead out and punish us or uk for no customs border. The EU would , however, have no problem erecting customs and tariff collecting on every vehicle and person leaving this isle for mainland europe.brits wouldn't care less if that happened.

MrMusician18 · 02-12-2018 07:17PM

briany wrote: »

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal? Would the EU have Ireland erect an inward border on March 30th? How long could the UK get away with having no border on their side, as JRM et al have been suggesting the UK should do? On The View (no, not that one) Kate Hoey mentioned some WTO clause about the Most Favoured Nations rule that relaxed the need for a border in potential trouble/conflict zones. Is this waffle?

In theory, Ireland would have to erect a border for Brexit day but in practice, it won't.

A no deal Brexit is expected to cause a huge amount of issues for the UK on the immediate weeks and months following. The expectation is, that in this kind of crisis, the UK would essentially be forced back to the table to accept whatever it is that's offered to them in order to relieve the crisis.

That's why the Irish government can say that there will be no hard border, because they believe a deal will have to be done either before Brexit day or shortly afterwards as a result of the crisis it's caused. If the UK managed to tough it out, then there would be no option for Ireland but to erect customs and market controls at the border or leave the single market and customs union.

Water John · 02-12-2018 07:17PM

The EU doesn't erect or operate any borders. This is done by its constituent countries.

Nate--IRL-- · 02-12-2018 07:19PM

briany wrote: »

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal?

There will be a border in that case, there might be some initial posturing while one side or the other shrieks "They put a border up first!". But in the end it will be full hard border.

Nate

briany · 02-12-2018 07:35PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

Could take years for wto to pull the lead out and punish us or uk for no customs border. The EU would , however, have no problem erecting customs and tariff collecting on every vehicle and person leaving this isle for mainland europe.brits wouldn't care less if that happened.

So, the UK could get away with no tariffs on EU goods via Northern Ireland, even if they're putting tariffs on goods from other WTO members? Wouldn't that raise almost immediate objections from said WTO members? And would the UK still attempt to control the Dover border (and, indeed, all other crossings from the EU) while leaving one specific one completely open?

MrMusician18 wrote: »

In theory, Ireland would have to erect a border for Brexit day but in practice, it won't.

A no deal Brexit is expected to cause a huge amount of issues for the UK on the immediate weeks and months following. The expectation is, that in this kind of crisis, the UK would essentially be forced back to the table to accept whatever it is that's offered to them in order to relieve the crisis.

That's why the Irish government can say that there will be no hard border, because they believe a deal will have to be done either before Brexit day or shortly afterwards as a result of the crisis it's caused. If the UK managed to tough it out, then there would be no option for Ireland but to erect customs and market controls at the border or leave the single market and customs union.

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

There will be a border in that case, there might be some initial posturing while one side or the other shrieks "They put a border up first!". But in the end it will be full hard border.

Nate

Sounds like a game of "Border chicken" could be afoot in the event of No Deal, then.

Water John wrote: »

The EU doesn't erect or operate any borders. This is done by its constituent countries.

But don't the EU put pressure on if one of those constituent countries would, for whatever reason, not enforce a border?

RobMc59 · 02-12-2018 07:37PM

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

briany · 02-12-2018 07:42PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

Because Ireland being part of the UK worked out so well the last time. :rolleyes:

tuxy · 02-12-2018 07:45PM

Westminster has shown how little it cares for Scotland and NI and polls show 80%-90% of people in Ireland want to stay in the EU. No one would entertain the idea of rejoining the UK.

P_1 · 02-12-2018 07:45PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

Tbf if you could work out a way of reducing the influence of the southern English Tories that might not be the worst of ideas. Some sort of a federated republic/kingdom with proper devolved powers to each republic/kingdom

tuxy · 02-12-2018 07:49PM

How about a European federation?

P_1 · 02-12-2018 07:54PM

tuxy wrote: »

How about a European federation?

Like the Eu. Dunno I don't think itll fly

Enzokk · 02-12-2018 08:40PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

Could you link the article. Then we could all read it and comment on it.

briany wrote: »

Is there any clear picture to what'll happen on the Irish border in the event of a No Deal? Would the EU have Ireland erect an inward border on March 30th? How long could the UK get away with having no border on their side, as JRM et al have been suggesting the UK should do? On The View (no, not that one) Kate Hoey mentioned some WTO clause about the Most Favoured Nations rule that relaxed the need for a border in potential trouble/conflict zones. Is this waffle?

So the plan to ensure no border, according to Kate Hoey, is to have increased tensions on the border that the UK doesn't want? In any case I think the only thing that will happen in no deal is that NI will remain part of the EU and their will be customs checks with the Irish Sea as the border, because the UK has signed the GFA. We would want to avoid this as it will cause tensions, but that would be less than actually putting up a border.

judeboy101 wrote: »

Could take years for wto to pull the lead out and punish us or uk for no customs border. The EU would , however, have no problem erecting customs and tariff collecting on every vehicle and person leaving this isle for mainland europe.brits wouldn't care less if that happened.

Any day now you will be proven right, if you keep pointing out how we will be taken to task by the EU it will happen and you will be right. I don't know if we should be keeping score of the times you have not been proven correct, but I guess the one time you are right will be the only thing that counts.

RobMc59 · 02-12-2018 08:47PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Could you link the article. Then we could all read it and comment on it.

So the plan to ensure no border, according to Kate Hoey, is to have increased tensions on the border that the UK doesn't want? In any case I think the only thing that will happen in no deal is that NI will remain part of the EU and their will be customs checks with the Irish Sea as the border, because the UK has signed the GFA. We would want to avoid this as it will cause tensions, but that would be less than actually putting up a border.

Any day now you will be proven right, if you keep pointing out how we will be taken to task by the EU it will happen and you will be right. I don't know if we should be keeping score of the times you have not been proven correct, but I guess the one time you are right will be the only thing that counts.

I'll try and post a link but not sure if my Internet knowledge will stretch to that!:)

UsedToWait · 02-12-2018 09:23PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I read an interesting article on Irishnews.com suggesting Ireland should be reunited by rejoining the UK-I wondered if anyone else has read it?

At first, I wondered whether you were trolling, but now, not so much.

fergiesfolly · 02-12-2018 10:11PM

Who in their right mind would think that Ireland would ever have any interest in ever rejoining the UK under any circumstances.
It'll never happen.

Also would it not be madness for the UK not to errect a border between NI and ourselves in the event of a no deal brexit. We undoubtedly will. And they are leaving themselves open to all sorts of problems if they don't.

RobMc59 · 02-12-2018 10:19PM

UsedToWait wrote: »

At first, I wondered whether you were trolling, but now, not so much.

I care about Ireland-just got off to a bad start -I've learnt some useful things on here and to listen to other points of view.:)

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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