Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

serfboard wrote: »

And who is the largest? The EPP, a grouping that also includes Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the Hungarian Far-Right party Fidesz. In fact:

Barosso's political party, the Social Democrats, are actually a centre-right party, so I don't know where you're getting Socialist from. They are also in the EPP as well, by the way, which is another indication.

Barosso also disgracefully intervened in the Scottish Independence Referendum, but that's probably for another thread.

Fidesz isn't far-right, just cynically populist. The same goes for Forza. And both are on the fringe of the EPP, they have no other EU party to go to so they don't have much choice (Liberals and Socialists clearly not for them).

I wasn't aware that PSD were in the EPP, that would be rather anomaly as all other social democratic parties would be in the PES (Party of European Socialists) including traditional social democratic parties, socialist parties as well as Labour parties.

Interesting to see Stephen Kinnock support Norway+, no he just needs to convert his own leader!

Sam Russell wrote: »

The fault lies with Cameron for thinking the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU. It would only need to change the minds of 2% or 3% of the voting public to change the result. It is the attitude it presented to the electorate that the EU was a bully that would not listen.

Not sure that was the case. He tried to put the Brexit thing to bed for at least another generation but it failed spectacularly.
He made plenty of errors but I suspect he always knew the importance of the EU to the UK but still couldn't silence the Brexiteers, due in part to the influence which the media still has on public opinion there.

Via a torturous metaphor, Philip Boucher Hayes on DriveTime (Radio 1) put the Parliamentary arithmetic as follows:

For the Deal: 230
Against: 400

Anyone care to hazard their own guesses or dispute those numbers?

11 December for the parliament vote

What will matter here is the procedural issues around the vote - is it straight up or down . Bercow has said it will be amendable but an amended vote leads you off into la-la land

" that all words after 'This House Approves' be stricken and replaced with 'wibble' " . Carried 649 to 1 ...

Tell me how wrote: »

Not sure that was the case. He tried to put the Brexit thing to bed for at least another generation but it failed spectacularly.
He made plenty of errors but I suspect he always knew the importance of the EU to the UK but still couldn't silence the Brexiteers, due in part to the influence which the media still has on public opinion there.

Sir Chris Patten said a few weeks ago that the referendum was extremely ill judged and that even if Cameron had 'won' it, it wouldn't have settled anything and the arguments over Europe would have carried on apace (for starters, it may have emboldened UKIP and the Tory Right rather than weakened them).

Inquitus wrote: »

11th December it gets voted down, there are then 10 days til Parliament recesses until the 7th Jan, wonder if it will get to a 2nd vote before the recess, or if they will keep sitting given the circumstances.

Quite possible May just lets them stew over Christmas, let them all go back to their constitutiencies and explain to business people, NHS staff etc etc how No-Deal is supposed to work.

Strazdas wrote: »

Crikey....there's no guarantee even a second vote on the deal would be passed at this rate. It would require 90 or so MPs to do a dramatic u-turn.

I think it's more likely we might be into GE, second referendum or extending A50 territory.

I think Labour, or rather Corbyn mostly, are betting on:
1. WA voted down in HoC
2. GE called
4. HMG will ask the EU for an extension to facilitate the GE

Now, EU may be willing to grant an extension (how exactly?) but would need some promises, which obviously cannot be made before the GE if the outcome isn't known. Thin ice.

McGiver wrote: »

I think Labour, or rather Corbyn mostly, are betting on:
1. WA voted down in HoC
2. GE called
4. HMG will ask the EU for an extension to facilitate the GE

Now, EU may be willing to grant an extension (how exactly?) but would need some promises, which obviously cannot be made before the GE if the outcome isn't known. Thin ice.

If May does not want to grant a GE, and I can't see why she would, then there won't be one.
There is no time for anyone other than May to take Brexit through, a leadership challenge would take to long, a GE would take to long and the only person that can ask for an extension to A50 is May herself. The looming deadline is her biggets ally now, an extension only gives her enemies more time to move against her.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1067126406050664448


This sounds amazing. For those who don't want to click, some in Downing Street want a TV debate with May v Jez.
I want to see May pretending that she believes leaving is a good idea and Jez pretending to oppose it with a zillion cliches floating about for good measure.

Over/Under "will of the people" shout outs.:p

May though will probably bottle it last minute and send Rudd again though.:(

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1067126406050664448


This sounds amazing. For those who don't want to click, some in Downing Street want a TV debate with May v Jez.
I want to see May pretend to support Brexit and Jez pretend to oppose it with a zillion cliches floating about. Over/Under "will of the people" shout outs.:p

May though will probably bottle it last minute and send Rudd again though.:(

How is this supposed to help? This is "anything to be said for another mass" territory.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Quite possible May just lets them stew over Christmas, let them all go back to their constitutiencies and explain to business people, NHS staff etc etc how No-Deal is supposed to work.

If May loses her vote, the 'People's vote' campaign will ramp up into top gear. The choice will become 'No Deal or No Brexit' May herself has already alluded to this in recent speeches and interviews. 'It's either this deal, no deal or no brexit'

In the UK, Parliament is Sovereign, so when the parliament rejects May's deal It would be extremely undemocratic for May to just ignore this and put the exact same deal before them again and again until it passes.

If May loses the vote, then her deal is no longer viable and the choice should be between 'a different deal' (given time limits, this means most likely crashing out) or withdrawing Article 50 and calling off Brexit.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If May does not want to grant a GE, and I can't see why she would, then there won't be one.
There is no time for anyone other than May to take Brexit through, a leadership challenge would take to long, a GE would take to long and the only person that can ask for an extension to A50 is May herself. The looming deadline is her biggets ally now, an extension only gives her enemies more time to move against her.

If she refuses to budge on her 'deal' and refuses to allow a 2nd referendum despite mounting pressure to do so, then if the UK ends up crashing out of the EU without a deal it will be 100% her fault.

Eric Cartman wrote: »

true, but a second referendum would see most of the tories out of a job, the motions of no confidence would be insane. I am absolutely not a fan but a crash out Brexit is less dangerous for Britain than PM Corbyn.

They'll end up with both IMO.

Nate

Tell me how wrote: »

Not sure that was the case. He tried to put the Brexit thing to bed for at least another generation but it failed spectacularly.
He made plenty of errors but I suspect he always knew the importance of the EU to the UK but still couldn't silence the Brexiteers, due in part to the influence which the media still has on public opinion there.

Cameron was very Eurosceptic (but not to extent of leaving the EU, just damaging it whenever possible, strangling the budget, blocking any further integration etc.).
I suppose you could not be leader of the Conservative party without holding that view - you'll never get the job!
As an example, afair he took the Conservatives out of the big centre right group in European parliament (containing the "normal" right of centre parties in most EU states like FG here - decided it was too "pro-EU" for them) + joined Conservatives up with a much more anti-EU grouping instead that contains some "oddballs" like Law and Justice Party and the True Finns.
He just looks relatively rational now (IMO) beside all the loons that have come out of the woodwork of the Conservative party since to fight for the Brexit cause.