After Hours Presidential Election Poll

FrancieBrady · 21-10-2018 02:02PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

But would these slightly poplist/popular (but yet contraversial) remarks have aided him, or hindered that's perhaps the big question.

Yes his % will grow. No doubt about that. Is the anger among the demographic that will actually vote is anybody's guess.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-10-2018 02:05PM

Not an exact indicator of course, but somewhat 'useful' along with various polls, is the bookie markets.
Of course no one of any sense is going to bet on the wee man for just a 3% ROI/PTE, but some might consider Casey a 'value option'.

Phoebas · 21-10-2018 02:06PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

But would these slightly poplist/popular (but yet contraversial) remarks have aided him, or hindered that's perhaps the big question.

He's a no-hoper and he knows it, so he's playing a desperate 'trump' card on a gamble to get his expenses.

Some people are always willing to fall for this stuff. For the life of me, I can't figure out what it contributes to a presidential debate, and I'd be pretty certain that the voting public will see it the same way on Friday.

eeepaulo · 21-10-2018 02:07PM

Phoebas wrote: »

The reason the media are running it as news is because a week out from the vote, the result of a national opinion poll is news.

My apologies, i thought you didnt know that the data is out of date, i was just trying to highlight that. I guess its news if you live under a rock

Phoebas · 21-10-2018 02:11PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Not an exact indicator of course, but somewhat 'useful' along with various polls, is the bookie markets.
Of course no one of any sense is going to bet on the wee man for just a 3% ROI/PTE, but some might consider Casey a 'value option'.

I think if you were looking for a 'value' bet from that list Mairead McGuinness is the one to go for.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-10-2018 02:13PM

Phoebas wrote: »

He's a no-hoper and he knows it, so he's playing a desperate 'trump' card on a gamble to get his expenses.

Some people are always willing to fall for this stuff. For the life of me, I can't figure out what it contributes to a presidential debate, and I'd be pretty certain that the voting public will see it the same way on Friday.

Trump was also a no-hoper, well that is until he actually became POTUS.

Most of the voters actually were swayed by his offerings e.g. counteracting Chinese imports, mass unemployment along the dust belt, business owers complaing about red tape, crime-gangs running the mex-border etc etc.

This event is of course very different, as it doesn't actually have any real actionable power, mereley symbolic and lots of hand-shaking. If anything has reduced risk and perhaps could be seen as a protest vote if he does well.

Odhinn · 21-10-2018 02:13PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes his % will grow. No doubt about that. Is the anger among the demographic that will actually vote is anybody's guess.

The latest opinion poll on the presidential election shows Mr Casey has doubled his support to 2pc.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/presidential-election-2018/peter-casey-to-stay-in-aras-race-as-he-slams-welfaredependent-state-37441787.html

The link between reality and after hours is strained, it seems.

dav3 · 21-10-2018 02:13PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Not an exact indicator of course, but somewhat 'useful' along with various polls, is the bookie markets.
Of course no one of any sense is going to bet on the wee man for just a 3% ROI/PTE, but some might consider Casey a 'value option'.

Mairead McGuinness?

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-10-2018 02:14PM

Phoebas wrote: »

I think if you were looking for a 'value' bet from that list Mairead McGuinness is the one to go for.

Value also implies 'some chance' as well as generous odds. So nope on that.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-10-2018 02:16PM

dav3 wrote: »

Mairead McGuinness?

Or could look for gold in them there mountains.

She is only listed with one bookie, the rest won't even accept or consider her as a candidate.

dav3 · 21-10-2018 02:18PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Or could look for gold in them there mountains.

She is only listed with one bookie, the rest won't even accept or consider her as a candidate.

They're not the only ones that don't consider her as a candidate.

Phoebas · 21-10-2018 02:18PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Value also implies 'some chance' as well as generous odds. So nope on that.

I'd put Mairead McGuiness' chances at about on par with Casey's.

AllForIt · 21-10-2018 02:21PM

I know the polls were conducted before all this controversy but even if it was done today I think if anything some might be reluctant to say they were going to vote for Casey given that one would be called racist. If you look at the poll on this thread which is anonymous Casey is in the lead. Not saying he's going to win as Higgins has a big overall lead but I think it's more likely Casey will get more votes than the polls suggest. I also think one of the reasons Higgins is so far ahead is that in reality most ppl are quite ambivalent about the presidential election and as a result may be disinclined to change the status quo...but unexpectedly this presidential campaign has become controversial right at the wrong time for Higgins so I don't think the result is as certain as it might have been.

tayto lover · 21-10-2018 02:21PM

Phoebas wrote: »

He's a no-hoper and he knows it, so he's playing a desperate 'trump' card on a gamble to get his expenses.

Some people are always willing to fall for this stuff. For the life of me, I can't figure out what it contributes to a presidential debate, and I'd be pretty certain that the voting public will see it the same way on Friday.

I'd usually agree with that BUT the attempts by Leo, the media, party hacks etc to put him down have annoyed sufficient numbers enough to have them vote for him. The Traveller issue alone needed debating as the Govt seems to have surrendered to them.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-10-2018 02:22PM

Phoebas wrote: »

I'd put Mairead McGuiness' chances at about on par with Casey's.

Cool, maybe dont' start a bookie shop.

The only shop that will take bets on her imply she has 15% chance (500/1) compared to Casey (67-81/1) as of today.

tayto lover · 21-10-2018 02:23PM

Phoebas wrote: »

I'd put Mairead McGuiness' chances at about on par with Casey's.

Casey could surprise many and finish 2nd or 3rd.

dav3 · 21-10-2018 02:26PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Cool, maybe dont' start a bookie shop.

The only shop that will take bets on her imply she has 15% chance (500/1) compared to Casey (67-81/1) as of today.

15% chance of what?

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-10-2018 02:29PM

dav3 wrote: »

15% chance of what?

She has only 15% chance of winning (or getting more votes) - when compared directly to Casey.
And Casey is still considered very much as an outside chance. Most markets won't even consider her as an actual candidate.

Phoebas · 21-10-2018 02:30PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Cool, maybe dont' start a bookie shop.

Good advice.
I'd extend it to anyone thinking about putting money on Casey being the next President of Ireland - don't go into a bookie shop.

Phoebas · 21-10-2018 02:32PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

She has only 15% chance of winning (or getting more votes) - when compared directly to Casey.

dav3 · 21-10-2018 02:32PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

She has only 15% chance of winning (or getting more votes) - when compared directly to Casey.
And Casey is still considered very much as an outside chance. Most markets won't even consider her as an actual candidate.

I see, well I wish her the very best of luck in the race.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-10-2018 02:34PM

Phoebas wrote: »

Good advice.
I'd extend it to anyone thinking about putting money on Casey being the next President of Ireland - don't go into a bookie shop.

Indeed, I'd never bet on a 'single event' such as this. Only as part of an Acca 'line selection' whereby there is significant risk reduction, combined with reduced stakes and increased odds.

This market (below) is interesting, but unfortunately can't be combined with other events.

Phoebas · 21-10-2018 02:40PM

Kamden Fit Worker wrote: »

Indeed, I'd never bet on a 'single event' such as this. Only as part of an Acca 'line selection' whereby there is significant risk reduction, combined with reduced stakes and increased odds.

This market (below) is interesting, but unfortunately can't be combined with other events.

You seem to be pretty au-fait with the mechanics of the betting markets, but I'd offer some more fundamental advice to anyone considering taking a punt. Before considering betting on any contest - first find out who the contestants are.

McMurphy · 21-10-2018 02:45PM

The best PR Casey could have wished for, and which will undoubtedly result in him getting a huge surge of votes will be on the back of Leo's attempt st meddling in the election by advising people not to vote for Casey.

The people don't like being told what to do Leo. **shakes finger at Leo **

What's the latest on the learjet spoof? Last I heard MDH office is refusing to comment on the PSNI contradiction.

WoolyJumper · 21-10-2018 02:51PM

I love the amount of people voting for Peter Casey but not knowing a single thing about him other that what he said about Travellers. As much as I might agree with what he said I literally know nothing about him or what he stands for so in my right mind I can't vote for him. 7 years is a long time in office.

AndrewJRenko · 21-10-2018 03:00PM

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

The best PR Casey could have wished for, and which will undoubtedly result in him getting a huge surge of votes will be on the back of Leo's attempt st meddling in the election by advising people not to vote for Casey.

The people don't like being told what to do Leo. **shakes finger at Leo **

Outrageous, isn't it? Just imagine, a politican canvassing for support during an election, who'd have thunk it:

https://www.facebook.com/campaignforleo/videos/2165473233772613

Vincent Vega · 21-10-2018 03:06PM

WoolyJumper wrote: »

I love the amount of people voting for Peter Casey but not knowing a single thing about him other that what he said about Travellers. As much as I might agree with what he said I literally know nothing about him or what he stands for so in my right mind I can't vote for him. 7 years is a long time in office.

Wouldn't worry too much about it.

I'm sure he'll come out and pay lip service to another few things that everybody hates over the coming days to reassure the emotional voter.

'He's not afraid to tell it like it is' as they say.

McMurphy · 21-10-2018 03:22PM

WoolyJumper wrote: »

I love the amount of people voting for Peter Casey but not knowing a single thing about him other that what he said about Travellers. As much as I might agree with what he said I literally know nothing about him or what he stands for so in my right mind I can't vote for him. 7 years is a long time in office.

14 years is longer.

WoolyJumper · 21-10-2018 03:59PM

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

14 years is longer.

Of course what I mean is 7 years is a long time to put someone in office when you know nothing about them other than one semi right wing thing he said (though as someone who considers themselves liberal I actually agree with what he said) I just think people see him as some kind of right wing tell it like it is Trump figure based on that one thing. Even though he later tried to distance himself from what he said saying he doesn't want to be elected on the basis of that. I don't think he is the right wing "saviour" people are expecting him to be

McMurphy · 21-10-2018 04:01PM

WoolyJumper wrote: »

Of course what I mean is 7 years is a long time to put someone in office when you know nothing about them other than one semi right wing thing he said (though as someone who considers themselves liberal I actually agree with what he said) I just think people see him as some kind of right wing tell it like it is Trump figure based on that one thing. Even though he later tried to distance himself from what he said saying he doesn't want to be elected on the basis of that. I don't think he is the right wing "saviour" people are expecting him to be

I don't know what exactly is right wing about calling for equality, and for fellow Irish citizens to be treated as such.

That's left wing imo.

As for distancing himself from the comments?

Didn't happen, in fact he doubled down on them and refused to back down.

After Hours Presidential Election Poll

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