Thursday

Francie Barrett · 10-10-2018 10:57pm #1

Worcester 3:30 - Price and form makes this a low conviction pick, but I think Sea's Aria is well handicapped in this fairly low grade race. Has won at a higher Irish handicap rating, which always interests me when backing horses that have switched to England, recent form has this getting closer to contention. The 2nd last run, the horse lost both shoes when finishing second, so I am thinking if things go right, this son of Sea The Stars can maybe go one better than that occasion. 5/1.

Mostly Harmless · 11-10-2018 10:32am

Liked a few of the Irish ones at Ayr today.

Duquesa Beach (2.05) ran a serious race to manage a place in a maiden on heavy last time, back in a handicap now on similar ground and step up in trip may bring about bit more improvement. Mark has gone up a bit on last run but still fairly weighted on a literal reading of that form. Hanagan far from my preferred jockey but at around the 16/1 mark she looks a mighty price and well worth a bet.

Lady Sonia (4.10) been running consistently all summer and this looks slightly weaker than most of races she has been running in of late. Looks significant that Slattery is sending just the one runner over and provided they go a decent enough pace early she looks well capable of running them down at the finish. Price going a bit now but I had her as clear fav so still some value there imo.

Molly Kaye (5.15) is a total hail mary at 80/1 and 5lbs out of the handicap but she did run a better race in a handicap when ridden by an inexperienced rider last time, had been given a few hopeless tasks in claimers prior to that and is now on a basement mark. Form from this time last year off higher marks would give her a notional chance and not inconceivable that she runs into a place at a massive price with Conor McGov's claim going someway to negating being 5lb out of handicap.

Francie Barrett · 11-10-2018 10:56am

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Liked a few of the Irish ones at Ayr today.

Duquesa Beach (2.05) ran a serious race to manage a place in a maiden on heavy last time, back in a handicap now on similar ground and step up in trip may bring about bit more improvement. Mark has gone up a bit on last run but still fairly weighted on a literal reading of that form. Hanagan far from my preferred jockey but at around the 16/1 mark she looks a mighty price and well worth a bet.

Lady Sonia (4.10) been running consistently all summer and this looks slightly weaker than most of races she has been running in of late. Looks significant that Slattery is sending just the one runner over and provided they go a decent enough pace early she looks well capable of running them down at the finish. Price going a bit now but I had her as clear fav so still some value there imo.

Molly Kaye (5.15) is a total hail mary at 80/1 and 5lbs out of the handicap but she did run a better race in a handicap when ridden by an inexperienced rider last time, had been given a few hopeless tasks in claimers prior to that and is now on a basement mark. Form from this time last year off higher marks would give her a notional chance and not inconceivable that she runs into a place at a massive price with Conor McGov's claim going someway to negating being 5lb out of handicap.

I have had a tiny 100/1 e/w bet on Silver Pass in the 1:35 at Ayr. Made a pigs ear of the start on debut, ran wide when out the second time after showing initial speed. Might squeak a place at a crazy price though.

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 1:59pm

3.00 Worcester, Awake at midnight, backed @ 2.18

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 2:10pm

3.10 Ayr, Falmouth light, layed @ 4.0 and also layed a small few quid for the place too @ 1.86/1.87, trappy race.

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 2:19pm

Last bet of the day for me, 3.20 Bangor, Mill Quest, laying @ 1.81/1.82, was tempted to back Lofgren but decided just to go with the lay.

Hope you all make a few bob, good luck!

Mostly Harmless · 11-10-2018 2:32pm

What's the thinking behind putting bets up on the off? Other than hoping to get some credit for a winner that nobody else can practically get on (even if they wanted to)

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 2:43pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

What's the thinking behind putting bets up on the off? Other than hoping to get some credit for a winner that nobody else can practically get on (even if they wanted to)

The reason being is I've had a couple of big bets go down on me in the past few weeks. I'm on a recovery mission and I need to be 100% sure before I put my money down. I'm not looking for credit, I just post on here in between racing.

For instance in the 3.50 @ banger I have global jackpot down as a lay. But I just feel I need that reassurance just before the off, that horse is currently around 2.06. As of now I'm not sure I'm going to even have a bet in the race, I probably won't unless I see something before the off.

I'll post in the gambling forum in future if you feel I'm cluttering up the thread.

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 2:51pm

just before the off now and I feel it's drifted enough so yes I'll lay global jackpot. I have my own method to my madness

Whether it will lose or not is another story just have to wait and see.

bookman2 · 11-10-2018 2:58pm

irishgoat wrote: »

just before the off now and I feel it's drifted enough so yes I'll lay global jackpot. I have my own method to my madness Whether it will lose or not is another story just have to wait and see.

nice well done.

Mostly Harmless · 11-10-2018 3:03pm

I would say there is not much point putting bets up seconds before they jump, especially if you're putting up long odds on pops and the reasoning is limited to "I like this a lot, the price is wrong, big bet" or something similar. If you're not sure 10 minutes before a race then don't really see how that can change significantly in the following 9 minutes but each to their own...

irishgoat wrote: »

just before the off now and I feel it's drifted enough so yes I'll lay global jackpot. I have my own method to my madness Whether it will lose or not is another story just have to wait and see.

This was posted at 15:51 and they went off at 15:50:44 - what is the point?

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 3:11pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

I would say there is not much point putting bets up seconds before they jump, especially if you're putting up long odds on pops and the reasoning is limited to "I like this a lot, the price is wrong, big bet" or something similar. If you're not sure 10 minutes before a race then don't really see how that can change significantly in the following 9 minutes but each to their own...

Oh believe me I will cancel my bet at the off if I feel I have to. I have more bets wrote down here in front of me but I'll make my final decision at the off e.g. in the 4.25 @ bangor I have elliots horse Jaunty Thor as a decent win bet, I haven't back it yet. Currently around 2.7. If there is support for it or it drifts a little I go in on it, if it's drifts like a barge I won't back it. I really like the look of the horse and I think it will continue on from it's last 2 wins. I dunno I'm just here for the great atmosphere I suppose.

Mostly Harmless · 11-10-2018 3:12pm

You claim to be a pro and this is your MO, the mind boggles. GL

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 3:12pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

This was posted at 15:51 and they went off at 15:50:44 - what is the point?

I mentioned that bet a 3.43pm, the 3.51 was only an example to your previous post as to why I post them so close to the off, I told you. I need that reassurance.

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 3:24pm

Jaunty Thor, pretty big drift but I stuck with it and backed it

I'm sorry you don't agree with my gambling methods or post actions Mostly Harmless, it works for me and I'm just grateful for that.

Til tomorrow

kiers47 · 11-10-2018 3:28pm

4.45 Ayr Kupa River
I am absolutely convinced there is a race like this in Kupa River. Formerly in training with Paddy Prendergast who got him to win a bad bad maiden in Listowel by a mile. He then ran with credit on his last start in Ireland when 2nd in a handicap to Marek. All be it beaten cosily.

He has plummeted down the weights on his time in Britain and down about a stone in the space of a year. He needs to get a lead and be allowed to set a steady pace which tbh i can see happening here. Im not rightly sure who will want to take him on so ive had a small bet on him at wild prices. Also the soft going and flat track will suit.
He is going to pop up in something at this grade at some point. So hoping today is the day.
16/1 is fair and also anything above that is even better.

Luap · 11-10-2018 3:32pm

I see Elliot has one on the flat in the last at Ayr - being smashed in.

kiers47 · 11-10-2018 3:49pm

kiers47 wrote: »

4.45 Ayr Kupa River
I am absolutely convinced there is a race like this in Kupa River. Formerly in training with Paddy Prendergast who got him to win a bad bad maiden in Listowel by a mile. He then ran with credit on his last start in Ireland when 2nd in a handicap to Marek. All be it beaten cosily.

He has plummeted down the weights on his time in Britain and down about a stone in the space of a year. He needs to get a lead and be allowed to set a steady pace which tbh i can see happening here. Im not rightly sure who will want to take him on so ive had a small bet on him at wild prices. Also the soft going and flat track will suit.
He is going to pop up in something at this grade at some point. So hoping today is the day.
16/1 is fair and also anything above that is even better.

Hmmm that was frustrating. He went way to quick

kiers47 · 11-10-2018 4:12pm

Anyone wants an account closer bet you could probably back 2 or 3 each way in the next in Ayr.
16 runners favorite is 11/8.
Most in the top 5 after the favorite are +EV on the place part.
Went with Pammi myself.

kiers47 · 11-10-2018 4:24pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Molly Kaye (5.15) is a total hail mary at 80/1 and 5lbs out of the handicap but she did run a better race in a handicap when ridden by an inexperienced rider last time, had been given a few hopeless tasks in claimers prior to that and is now on a basement mark. Form from this time last year off higher marks would give her a notional chance and not inconceivable that she runs into a place at a massive price with Conor McGov's claim going someway to negating being 5lb out of handicap.

Fair shout there!!!

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 7:29pm

kiers47 wrote: »

4.45 Ayr Kupa River
I am absolutely convinced there is a race like this in Kupa River. Formerly in training with Paddy Prendergast who got him to win a bad bad maiden in Listowel by a mile. He then ran with credit on his last start in Ireland when 2nd in a handicap to Marek. All be it beaten cosily.

He has plummeted down the weights on his time in Britain and down about a stone in the space of a year. He needs to get a lead and be allowed to set a steady pace which tbh i can see happening here. Im not rightly sure who will want to take him on so ive had a small bet on him at wild prices. Also the soft going and flat track will suit.
He is going to pop up in something at this grade at some point. So hoping today is the day.
16/1 is fair and also anything above that is even better.

I think you're absolutely bang on about that Kupa river and I'm sure it will win very very soon. A year ago it was given a rating of 78 and hosed up. Raised immediately to 88 and then dropped to 87 and finished 2nd beaten 1/2 length to Marek who was rated 98, on heavy going.

The past few runs it's been down the field but today it got heavy going and was only beaten about 4'ish lengths so coming to form.
I'd say it will be raised a couple of pounds for today but even at that it's one to watch but has to be heavy I'd think for it to win or very close to heavy.

irishgoat · 11-10-2018 7:40pm

Might as well have one more bet tonight. 8.45 Chelmsford, Jumping cats, layed @ 2.3/2.32. Then look ahead to the good racing tomorrow.

kiers47 · 11-10-2018 8:15pm

irishgoat wrote: »

I think you're absolutely bang on about that Kupa river and I'm sure it will win very very soon. A year ago it was given a rating of 78 and hosed up. Raised immediately to 88 and then dropped to 87 and finished 2nd beaten 1/2 length to Marek who was rated 98, on heavy going.

The past few runs it's been down the field but today it got heavy going and was only beaten about 4'ish lengths so coming to form.
I'd say it will be raised a couple of pounds for today but even at that it's one to watch but has to be heavy I'd think for it to win or very close to heavy.

It was a maiden on his 4th start so the rating of 78 was imaterial. Tbh I think the rise to 88 off the back of that maiden was harsh but it is what it is. I think he is a solid 70-85 horse and will pick up some pots here and there when the chips fall right. Just wants a more tactically astute ride for starters.
I'd say there is no chance he will be raised for that run either. It would be harsh enough.

BumperD · 11-10-2018 8:54pm

irishgoat wrote: »

Might as well have one more bet tonight. 8.45 Chelmsford, Jumping cats, layed @ 2.3/2.32. Then look ahead to the good racing tomorrow.

You’re displaying the characteristics of a compulsive gambler acting on impulse rather than a pro. I’m not trying to pick on you btw, just an observation. That impulsive nature is impossible to profit from goat, impossible.

Thursday

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