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Arc Day

  • 07-10-2018 8:06am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭


    Arc 3:05
    3Yo Fillies have a great record in this and I think there is a forgotten horse here in Magical. She looked very good winning in July in a race she had to win really but then had a long break like a lot of Aidan’s . She ran well behind Laurens in the Matron in a race that obviously worked out well. She’s sure to come on for that run and if she does she will be getting involved here at a huge price. Her very light season should be an advantage here and 50/1 is just huge.
    2 Points EW 50/1 4 places paddy/betfair
    4:25 Abbey
    Finsbury Square
    is as good at 40/1 shot as you will see here. He ran really well in the Kings Stand to finish 4th, when no one ever really got to Battash or Blue Point. That form is easily in the top 4 here and this race is sure to have been his main target after Ascot. He’s 40/1 because of a below par run back from a break. He is at least twice the price he should be so a decent bet is required.
    2 Points EW 40/1 4 places Paddy 33/1 4 places sky/hills


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    4:35
    It is hard to fancy a horse that keeps finishing last but I think Declarationofpeace is going to do something soon . If he gets away here he could well finish strong which suits this race. 100/1 for a small bet is worth a shot
    1 Point EW 100/1 4 places paddy/hills


    3:50
    Rhododendron is a certainty to run a much better race than her last few. She actually didn’t try a leg at all in the Irish Champion but today is probably her day. I actually think Magic Wand will be hard to beat here along with With You but 14/1 about last year’s winner looks decent value in what looks a 3 horse race to me.


    1 Point win 14/1 Generally


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    5:00
    So Beloved looks to have a bit of a squeak here on his best form. He ran well in this race last year to be 2nd albeit on a different course. There is a lot of overrated horses ahead of him in the betting here and he looks worth a small bet.
    1 Point EW 4 places 66/1 Sky 66/1 3 places generally


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Arc
    Of the others in the Arc Study of Man may well improve here. He fought well to win the French Derby and this race could develop into a similar scrap. We have to forgive a poor run in the Irish Champion. 40/1 with 4 places look value.
    1 Point EW 40/1 4 places Generally
    I also don’t think it is out of the question that Tiberian can run a big race here at an outrageous price. He has some decent form in the past and has the look of one that could run well at a huge price. A tiny bet just in case
    ½ Point EW 200/1 4 places lads/vc/coral


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,328 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Busy day aidan,i think thats as many points as you put up for a day,good luck,following you them all


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    Ive had a bit ew on Talismanic at 33's, hoping the ground is genuinely good.
    His win in the breeders Cup turf last season I was impressed with and this will likely be the first race hell meet with a decent sized field and gallop to aim at since.
    Got to the front early the last day in the trials and emptied after travelling nicely and finished behind Waldgeist but I'd be surprised if placings aren't reversed today, expect Barzalona to ride him for a place and here's hoping.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭hobie21


    Arc
    Kew Gardens all the way


  • Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭hobie21


    Arc
    Kew Gardens all the way


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭GoneHome


    hobie21 wrote: »
    Arc
    Kew Gardens all the way

    Yes indeed, good each way value at 10/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Morleystreet


    Think o'brien might have good day today.
    Ew treble on donnacha's 3 and ew treble on moore's 3 where donnacha's not involved. Also a ew on clincher in arc.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,026 ✭✭✭Itziger


    Just show us more of Francesca. Don't care who wins.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭mirwillbeback


    Any idea where to watch the Arc in TV?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 484 ✭✭ANDREWMUFC


    ITV


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭mirwillbeback


    Cheers pal


  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 568 ✭✭✭Auroras_encore


    Well ****ing done Doyle ya clown


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,018 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    What a race.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Well ****ing done Doyle ya clown

    I'm not sure. I thought it was a brilliant ride myself. He was just very unlucky. Another stride and the race was Doyle's.


  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 568 ✭✭✭Auroras_encore


    TheTorment wrote: »
    I'm not sure. I thought it was a brilliant ride myself. He was just very unlucky. Another stride and the race was Doyle's.

    There is no way Doyle would ride that race the same way again


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    There is no way Doyle would ride that race the same way again

    In my opinion he did nothing wrong


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,026 ✭✭✭Itziger


    He had a bad draw, winner has the perfect stall. You have to get lucky if you're in behind. Thought Moore left KGs waaaaaay too much to do. Could have run into 3rd I thought.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    'twas a scrappy enough race on messy ground. Bar the 2nd ( not suited by the going or draw ) nothing covered itself in glory with the pacemaker Nelson finishing close up beaten just 4 1/2L and putting a realistic formline into the result.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,194 ✭✭✭FatRat


    Doyle has been the best jockey all year by a mile. That still stands. What enable just did is seriously impressive. 2 back to back arcs!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Well ****ing done Doyle ya clown

    Nonsense


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 680 ✭✭✭lemush


    Well ****ing done Doyle ya clown

    Absolute bollocks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Lads I'll do a write up on Tuesday once I get home and get to grips with it. But tbh that was probably the best flat race I've ever seen in terms of tactics and horses. No money made but unreal!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 290 ✭✭mickey1979


    I don’t think Doyle did much wrong, I think maybe some of the “what a ride” brigade are over doing it. Seems to me the plan was to come across at the back, he did get a few holes opening up at the right time and was unlucky with the last one as he had to come out rather than go inbetween horses. I would think plan was carried out correctly but a lot had to go right for SOC to win.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    FatRat wrote: »
    Doyle has been the best jockey all year by a mile. That still stands. What enable just did is seriously impressive. 2 back to back arcs!
    Oisin Murphy says hello...


    Thought the draw killed Sea of Class. An almost peach of a ride from Doyle to get her so close. Hopefully both stay in training next. Can see Sea of Class reversing the form


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    Did I hear Ollie bell daring question Moore's ride on kew gardens yesterday on Itv?
    He'd wanna watch himself, there's an unwritten rule that Moore's good rides have to be made out to be better than they are and his poor rides ignored.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,061 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    It wasn't the worst ride ever considering the draw ,however it's not this unbelievable good ride either. Bit like the irish oaks where he got there, but only just and everyone was declaring his genius whereas in reality the filly got him out of jail, this time she couldn't quite do it.


  • Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 568 ✭✭✭Auroras_encore


    Enable beat cloth of stars two lengths last year with all allowances and 1 or so this year with just the fillys allowance so gosden can spoof all he wants she was fit the form stacks up, the arc this year was filled with absolute rags and Doyle could most certainly have made more use of sea of class and I fully expect sea of class to reverse form if they meet again


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Shemale


    I had no money down but is being widest turning in such a bad thing, there is plenty of time from the second last bend to get from the rail at the back of the field to wider so you get a clear run in the straight.

    Arc after Arc you always hear about bad luck but the pacemakers always come back through the field and impede the horses on the rail near the back.

    Not a criticism of Doyle just something I dont understand.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Enable beat cloth of stars two lengths last year with all allowances and 1 or so this year with just the fillys allowance so gosden can spoof all he wants she was fit the form stacks up, the arc this year was filled with absolute rags and Doyle could most certainly have made more use of sea of class and I fully expect sea of class to reverse form if they meet again

    The time and rating guru's would tend to hold up the theory from Gosden. Which tbh i tend to agree with.
    Cloth of Stars was coming off the back of a Group 1 win in the Ganay as well as a 2nd in the Foy. He has simply not been in the same form this year so id be wary enough to be rating the race through him.

    She looked like she got extremely tired in front which is nothing she has ever shown in a race before.
    Id be a huge Sea of Class fan but i think Enable would comfortably beat her off a better prep. Tbh im not really sure why they dont try and ride her closer to the pace. Its not like they have tried it and it hasnt worked.

    Hopefully they are both back to their best again next year and they do battle a couple of times.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    On looking at the race again. Sea of class was out in plenty of time. Enable actually put more distance between them after she got clear and then got tired. Id say in fairness to doyle, when he initially got out he would have been fairly sure of getting past, but enable had a turn of foot then.


    Its a great race but it badly needs to be reduced in size just to more evenly distribute the luck factor. Amazingly the best horse still manages to win most years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    kiers47 wrote: »
    The time and rating guru's would tend to hold up the theory from Gosden. Which tbh i tend to agree with.
    Cloth of Stars was coming off the back of a Group 1 win in the Ganay as well as a 2nd in the Foy. He has simply not been in the same form this year so id be wary enough to be rating the race through him.

    She looked like she got extremely tired in front which is nothing she has ever shown in a race before.
    Id be a huge Sea of Class fan but i think Enable would comfortably beat her off a better prep. Tbh im not really sure why they dont try and ride her closer to the pace. Its not like they have tried it and it hasnt worked.

    Hopefully they are both back to their best again next year and they do battle a couple of times.

    It was probably one of the worst Arc wins in modern history. Last year Enable posted a 126 rpr winning performance which would equate to an 129 rpr for a colt. This year she ran to 122 rpr, even Solemia and Found ran to 124 rpr. There's no question in my mind that the draw beat Sea Of Class, a bad draw has floored the likes of Gosden's own Taghrooda in previous years.

    I don't buy the poor preparation excuse for Enable's lesser win this year. For sure whatever held her up during the year has diminished her form but she was in top shape for her impressive reappearance win so another 3 weeks to the Arc would have left her in as good shape as she'll ever be in again. It was always going to be near impossible for Enable to reach the same form level at 4 that she showed at 3 simply because she was such a good 3yo.


    Looking back at the Arc, it's seemingly blindingly obvious that the decision to cut the French Derby trip from 12f to 10 1/2f has made a balls of the Arc and it's only the sheer quantity of Gp1 winners that make it to the Arc that's disguising what the Arc has lost since the 3yo French Colts lost their way at 12f.

    It's no accident that fillies and Epsom Derby winners have won every Arc since 2008.


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