Property Market 2018

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 01-10-2018 2:48pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

3 bed semi near me for sale for 420k in a commuter town. Place wedged with cars for open viewings the other night.

Is it nicely finished? Always amazes me what people will pay for a fresh coat of paint

01-10-2018 4:56pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

3 bed semi near me for sale for 420k in a commuter town. Place wedged with cars for open viewings the other night.

How much of a commute?

MrMojoRisin' · 01-10-2018 8:06pm

seamus wrote: »

This is really the one we want to watch:

This chart is excellent. Where did you get it? Or where did you get this data? Does daft have a public API?

theboringfox · 01-10-2018 9:22pm

titan18 wrote: »

Ya, I'm seeing a good few go up around 300k and go off market quick enough. If it goes over 300k, they seem to take longer to move. Severe lack of apartments in the city centre from what I've seen too.

I'm monitoring the market atm, but probably a year or two from being in a position to buy at current prices. Hoping for a crash tbh as house prices in areas like Midleton, Carrigtwohill etc have jumped massively in the last few years.

House across the road from where I'm living atm (with parents) has gone up for sale at 340k. I'll be interested to see how fast that moves. Viewings have been slow enough from what I've seen though unless they're coming in during working hours.

Think this covers it well. I have been keeping an eye in Cork market and think it is pretty soft once you go over 300k. I just think it is an affordability ceiling with lending rules. It is good to see a more stable market.

Eric Cartman · 01-10-2018 10:19pm

theboringfox wrote: »

Think this covers it well. I have been keeping an eye in Cork market and think it is pretty soft once you go over 300k. I just think it is an affordability ceiling with lending rules. It is good to see a more stable market.

and thank christ they're holding for everyones sake. if we opened that floodgate we'd be back at 2007 all over again.

I've noticed a lot of properties >500k on daft having little 10-20k drops on them recently, a good sign.

seamus · 02-10-2018 8:58am

MrMojoRisin' wrote: »

This chart is excellent. Where did you get it? Or where did you get this data? Does daft have a public API?

Daft publish the chart in their quarterly reports, the image above is just a screengrab I took. They've a full archive of reports going back to 2005, it can be fascinating reading.

Not sure about the raw data, they may have an API?

Samuel T. Cogley · 02-10-2018 10:25am

I see that the Daft report is stating it's supply and not CB rules causing the stagnation of house prices. Interesting. Also have you seen what's happened to a 1 bed apartment in D8 in 12 months - guts of a 25% increase to 234K. Given how many apartments are in D7/D8 for AirBnB I wonder what the new legislation and year will bring.

The_Conductor · 02-10-2018 10:38am

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I see that the Daft report is stating it's supply and not CB rules causing the stagnation of house prices. Interesting. Also have you seen what's happened to a 1 bed apartment in D8 in 12 months - guts of a 25% increase to 234K. Given how many apartments are in D7/D8 for AirBnB I wonder what the new legislation and year will bring.

Honestly- I imagine you'll see a significant number of people offloading these type units trying to lock in whatever capital appreciation they have- and consequently- particularly in the case of apartments, you'll see price falls. Note- the 25% increase in apartment prices year-on-year in some areas- is mostly a reflection of the fact that their prices did not recover to the same extent as house prices- so they're playing a game of catch-up (plus- a lot of people who would like to buy a house- are facing reality and giving up- and actually buying what they can afford- ye one or two bed apartment...........)

I'm fully expecting to see a significant jump in supply on the secondhand market..........

Humour Me · 02-10-2018 7:26pm

I think the one beds could be in a bit of trouble. Banks are only lending 75% of the value on one beds. A purchase price of €234k would require a deposit of €58k. If someone is able to put a deposit like that together, even with the lending restrictions, they would get better value for money buying a 2 bed using their deposit with a 90% mortgage.

Samuel T. Cogley · 02-10-2018 9:37pm

Humour Me wrote: »

I think the one beds could be in a bit of trouble. Banks are only lending 75% of the value on one beds. A purchase price of €234k would require a deposit of €58k. If someone is able to put a deposit like that together, even with the lending restrictions, they would get better value for money buying a 2 bed using their deposit with a 90% mortgage.

I think there's a bank doing 90% on one beds. KBC I think but not 100% sure.

patsy mulcaghy · 02-10-2018 10:41pm

Question for anybody that can help; currently living in Dublin commuter belt but looking to relocate West. Will stay in current employment and partner planning to commute for half of the week until new employment found. From speaking to local broker, they reckon banks will use only my salary in the mortgage application as partners work situation considered unstable with current lending rules.

Does this sound correct? Has anybody heard of banks recently approving mortgages for purchase of property in another county? Or maybe a broker in the West would have more luck in approaching them? Thanks

Samuel T. Cogley · 02-10-2018 10:43pm

It's really just that they know the other income is not guaranteed. Different banks will have different policies on the matter I'd imagine.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 04-10-2018 7:52am

Heard rumblings on the radio today that they are going to introduce a savings scheme for first time buyers to top up deposits. How will this help anyone except current property owners? All first time buyers will get the same bump, and all houses will go up by whatever the bump is. Will likely drive small increase in value of second hand properties. Stupid idea if true

lawred2 · 04-10-2018 7:53am

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Heard rumblings on the radio today that they are going to introduce a savings scheme for first time buyers to top up deposits. How will this help anyone except current property owners? All first time buyers will get the same bump, and all houses will go up by whatever the bump is. Will likely drive small increase in value of second hand properties. Stupid idea if true

As in savings topups?

theboringfox · 04-10-2018 7:58am

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Heard rumblings on the radio today that they are going to introduce a savings scheme for first time buyers to top up deposits. How will this help anyone except current property owners? All first time buyers will get the same bump, and all houses will go up by whatever the bump is. Will likely drive small increase in value of second hand properties. Stupid idea if true

Annoyed the hell out of me when I read it. Focus on supply not giving money to one part of the market. And what about people renting longer term or trying to get out of negstive equity houses. Too much of an obsession with giving money to first time buyers

The_Conductor · 04-10-2018 8:03am

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Heard rumblings on the radio today that they are going to introduce a savings scheme for first time buyers to top up deposits. How will this help anyone except current property owners? All first time buyers will get the same bump, and all houses will go up by whatever the bump is. Will likely drive small increase in value of second hand properties. Stupid idea if true

Current proposal is an SSIA type savings account specifically for the purpose of assisting FTBs towards saving their deposits for new build properties. There would be a maximum that could be saved every month (Euro 200) which would receive a 25% topup on encashment to a maximum top-up encashment value of 5k. This would replace the current First Time Buyers grant- which would be phased out over an 18 month period. There would be no expiration date on the FTB-SSA- however, the topup would be managed on a maximum encashment value basis- and on the basis that you could only earn a maximum topup of a set amount- based on a consistent monthly saving pattern.

The idea is that it would have a set definable cost to the exchequer- and it wouldn't result in a glut of these all coming due at the same point in time.

You could continue to pay into your FTB-SSA after you'd reached the maximum top-up level- you'd be increasing your deposit- you just wouldn't get a bonus top-up payment from the government (once you reached the maximum level).

At first glance- as a scheme- it certainly has merits.

theboringfox · 04-10-2018 8:10am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Current proposal is an SSIA type savings account specifically for the purpose of assisting FTBs towards saving their deposits for new build properties. There would be a maximum that could be saved every month (Euro 200) which would receive a 25% topup on encashment to a maximum top-up encashment value of 5k. This would replace the current First Time Buyers grant- which would be phased out over an 18 month period. There would be no expiration date on the FTB-SSA- however, the topup would be managed on a maximum encashment value basis- and on the basis that you could only earn a maximum topup of a set amount- based on a consistent monthly saving pattern.

The idea is that it would have a set definable cost to the exchequer- and it wouldn't result in a glut of these all coming due at the same point in time.

You could continue to pay into your FTB-SSA after you'd reached the maximum top-up level- you'd be increasing your deposit- you just wouldn't get a bonus top-up payment from the government (once you reached the maximum level).

At first glance- as a scheme- it certainly has merits.

I disagree. If the government had these resources apply them to increasing supply of housing and focus on most disadvantaged sectors. A blanket top up of savings with a 25% interest is just giving money to one particular part of the market some of which will be quite well off and in need of support. The only people in favour of this will be first time buyers and developers ... Free money from the tax payers. Why wouldn't people be happy.

So many more deserving causes than this

lawred2 · 04-10-2018 8:17am

What will this do to the tax back scheme that FTBs currently enjoy?

The_Conductor · 04-10-2018 8:51am

lawred2 wrote: »

What will this do to the tax back scheme that FTBs currently enjoy?

Wound down over an 18 month period- so as to minimise a 'shock' in the sector. Aka- the two schemes would run in tandem with one another for a period of time- with a defined end date on the current scheme.

z0oT · 04-10-2018 8:54am

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Heard rumblings on the radio today that they are going to introduce a savings scheme for first time buyers to top up deposits. How will this help anyone except current property owners? All first time buyers will get the same bump, and all houses will go up by whatever the bump is. Will likely drive small increase in value of second hand properties. Stupid idea if true

That's always what happens whenever there's some subsidy or grant. Those who cheerlead grants and subsidies never understand that.

Relevent Story - We met the builder of the new build house that we're sale agreed on yesterday. We're First Time Buyers so naturally the Help to Buy is available to us, and we have an application approved for the full amount.

The builder is in the process of registering to be eligible for the Help to Buy scheme with Revenue, but I was told if they're not registered by the time of closing, and we can't claim it, they'll reduce the purchase price by whatever the Help to Buy amount is without issues. We're both very happy with this to be honest.

However the point I'm making is if they're willing to do this without it issue really does show that they saw the Help to Buy grant as free money for them to begin with, I don't blame them either.

beaz2018 · 04-10-2018 9:05am

Instead of driving up prices with grants and savings schemes why don't they reduce the cost to build by reducing VAT, removing red tape, regulations etc. The reason they wont is it would impact house prices negatively and leave a lot of people back in negative equity, which they don't want. They cant win with this housing crises and they know it, they will just wait for it to blow over, which will happen in a few years when the economy cools down.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 04-10-2018 9:07am

beaz2018 wrote: »

Instead of driving up prices with grants and savings schemes why don't they reduce the cost to build by reducing VAT, removing red tape, regulations etc. The reason they wont is it would impact house prices negatively and leave a lot of people back in negative equity, which they don't want. They cant win with this housing crises and they know it, they will just wait for it to blow over, which will happen in a few years when the economy cools down.

I tend to agree here. They want to solve, but solve it in such a way that voters/house owners don't get hit with a decrease in house values. Slapping up 35 k units a year would undoubtedly decrease prices so the government don't want to do it.

sightband · 04-10-2018 9:16am

The_Conductor wrote: »

Wound down over an 18 month period- so as to minimise a 'shock' in the sector. Aka- the two schemes would run in tandem with one another for a period of time- with a defined end date on the current scheme.

Wasn’t the ftb scheme always scheduled to end in 2019? There should not be any kind of public backlash if so.

More importantly the scheme has been nothing short of a disaster, compliments of the master architect Coveney who has sailed off into the sunset on to a handy number no different from Phil hogan who also left behind a heap of shįte.

I availed of €20k as a first time buyer which I absolutely and thoroughly did not need. We converted an attic with it...which we did not need to do. I’m embarrassed to admit as much but it was all above board and why would you not avail of the stupidity of this administration.

If there is finances to fund this scheme then there is finances to build houses, that is the solution. Build, build, build....

But nobody is taking about how wealthy people are getting from this “crisis”. It’s 100% engineered, banks are being recapitalised and ordinary folk are getting themselves out of negative equity. There are a lot of people in this country who are very thankful for FF/FG policies...and they will be re-elected because of this.

theboringfox · 04-10-2018 10:09am

sightband wrote: »

Wasn’t the ftb scheme always scheduled to end in 2019? There should not be any kind of public backlash if so.

More importantly the scheme has been nothing short of a disaster, compliments of the master architect Coveney who has sailed off into the sunset on to a handy number no different from Phil hogan who also left behind a heap of shįte.

I availed of €20k as a first time buyer which I absolutely and thoroughly did not need. We converted an attic with it...which we did not need to do. I’m embarrassed to admit as much but it was all above board and why would you not avail of the stupidity of this administration.

If there is finances to fund this scheme then there is finances to build houses, that is the solution. Build, build, build....

But nobody is taking about how wealthy people are getting from this “crisis”. It’s 100% engineered, banks are being recapitalised and ordinary folk are getting themselves out of negative equity. There are a lot of people in this country who are very thankful for FF/FG policies...and they will be re-elected because of this.

Respect on your honesty. Fully agree with you.

Pussyhands · 04-10-2018 1:19pm

As a potential first time buyer in future this sounds good

But 200 a month....to get the 5k you'd have to be saving for like 8 and a half years?

Saints#33 · 04-10-2018 1:30pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

As a potential first time buyer in future this sounds good

But 200 a month....to get the 5k you'd have to be saving for like 8 and a half years?

Yeah that cant be right. 200 a week perhaps.

AlmightyCushion · 04-10-2018 2:51pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

As a potential first time buyer in future this sounds good

But 200 a month....to get the 5k you'd have to be saving for like 8 and a half years?

You can save 200 a month up to a total value of 5000. That would take 25 months to save up that amount.

Saints#33 · 04-10-2018 2:59pm

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

You can save 200 a month up to a total value of 5000. That would take 25 months to save up that amount.

Same thing. You need 30K to get a deposit together so it doesn't really work unless you are telling 18 year olds to get saving for close to a decade..

AlmightyCushion · 04-10-2018 3:25pm

Saints#33 wrote: »

Same thing. You need 30K to get a deposit together so it doesn't really work unless you are telling 18 year olds to get saving for close to a decade..

To even get a mortgage you'd need to be saving more than 200 a month.

cruizer101 · 04-10-2018 4:06pm

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

You can save 200 a month up to a total value of 5000. That would take 25 months to save up that amount.

But it 25% of you savings you get up to a max top up of 5k, so that is 20k savings to give you the 5k, which at 200 a month is 100 months or 8 and a bit years.

Property Market 2018

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