Is Turkey about to trigger a global ****storm?

jacksie66 · 14-08-2018 11:13AM #1

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RandomName2 · 14-08-2018 11:19AM

jacksie66 wrote: »

With the Turkish Lira losing 40% of its value against the dollar could this spread to Europe and trigger another economic ****storm? There might be no Turkey on the menu come Christmas..

Only Asia can be potentially affected, but it's most likely going to be exclusive to Turkey.

Cry for Erdogan, the Mussolini of the Middle East.

Trigger Happy · 14-08-2018 11:23AM

Turkey is too small and disconnected to have any global impact. Chaos theory be damned.

Victor · 14-08-2018 11:24AM

Turkey is at war in Syria and has serious terrorism domestically for more than 30 years.

It had a coup attempt in the last few years. It's state institutions have been purged of hundreds of thousands of officials.

It's tourism business is in tatters.

The president is all but a dictator, with friends and family appointed to high office.

That hardly sounds like the rest of Europe.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 14-08-2018 11:25AM

No. This is standard issue hysterical journalism. Two weeks ago Italy was going to cause global meltdown, this week its turkey, next month it'll be Venezuela etc. Same with brexit.

The world (and the EU in particular) seems to love pushing stuff right to the 11th hour with constant threats of total economic meltdown, only for everything to miraculously work out OK. It'll be grand, we'll all be grand, nothing to worry about.

jacksie66 · 14-08-2018 11:26AM

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Water John · 14-08-2018 11:31AM

It's all down to a little misunderstanding between two gobs****s, Trump and Erdogan. Nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. You can't blame the EU for everything, unless your Jacob Rees Mogg.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/13/turkish-lira-crisis-caused-by-standoff-between-trump-and-erdogan

badtoro · 14-08-2018 11:40AM

Trigger Happy wrote: »

Turkey is too small and disconnected to have any global impact. Chaos theory be damned.

A populous NATO member with large modern military straddling the border between continent's controlling a strategic seaway that has in the recent past seriously fallen out with friends & allies, gone increasingly autocratic, shot down a Russian warplane, which is now ironically increasingly looking towards Putin's Russia for friendship and is vying for influence in one of the most unstable regions on the planet.

Yeah, ****'em really, not important.

Trigger Happy · 14-08-2018 11:44AM

badtoro wrote: »

A populous NATO member with large modern military straddling the border between continent's controlling a strategic seaway that has in the recent past seriously fallen out with friends & allies, gone increasingly autocratic, shot down a Russian warplane, which is now ironically increasingly looking towards Putin's Russia for friendship and is vying for influence in one of the most unstable regions on the planet.

Yeah, ****'em really, not important.

You really think that Turkey’s economic crisis will have a big impact on the words economy?
You had better explain it please as I can’t see it.

Grayson · 14-08-2018 11:47AM

Water John wrote: »

It's all down to a little misunderstanding between two gobs****s, Trump and Erdogan. Nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. You can't blame the EU for everything, unless your Jacob Rees Mogg.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/13/turkish-lira-crisis-caused-by-standoff-between-trump-and-erdogan

I found this article really interesting. It's about the global implications from an economics point of view.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/12/turkey-crisis-widen-and-options-running-out-erdogan

badtoro · 14-08-2018 11:47AM

Trigger Happy wrote: »

You really think that Turkey’s economic crisis will have a big impact on the words economy?
You had better explain it please as I can’t see it.

You quoted enough of an explanation. You're not that daft as to not see the international relationships. Otherwise Brexit wouldn't be a thing because it'd exist in a self sufficient bubble that would affect no one else. It's a matter of scales, shades of grey, degrees, catalysts and reactions.

xxyyzz · 14-08-2018 11:51AM

Victor wrote: »

The president is all but a dictator, with friends and family appointed to high office.

That hardly sounds like the rest of Europe.

No, it sounds more like the US

14-08-2018 11:52AM

With a young and increasingly well-educated population, Turkey should have been on course to become a model for a Muslim-majority secular democracy. It should have been on the road to prosperity and better human rights.

Then Erdogan decides he wants to be an Islamist strongman and drags the country down. In my mind he is the absolute most despicable leader in the world - worse than Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Xi, even Kim - for how he has turned the progress of his country backwards. As much as I can't stand Trump, I'll be thankful for the tariffs he has imposed if it helps to set in motion a chain of events that ultimately proves Erdogan's undoing.

seamus · 14-08-2018 11:53AM

Turkey is screwed, everyone else will be OK. What was once a beacon of promise in the Muslim world has been usurped by Turkish oligarchs, assisted by Russian money.

Turkish accession to the EU had the potential to begin a new wave of democratic prosperity across the Middle East. This doesn't suit Putin at all, who is relying on civil instability south of Russia to start pushing on with his plans.

Once Turkey is an economic basket case with a puppet dictator in place, Putin can start making moves to isolate the Caucasus region, with an end goal of ruining & annexing Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Mr. Incognito · 14-08-2018 11:53AM

I was in Istanbul last September and it is honestly the best holiday I have ever had.

I would highly recommend it.

Theres too little foreign investment in Turkey for it to affect global economies

Trigger Happy · 14-08-2018 11:58AM

badtoro wrote: »

You quoted enough of an explanation. You're not that daft as to not see the international relationships. Otherwise Brexit wouldn't be a thing because it'd exist in a self sufficient bubble that would affect no one else. It's a matter of scales, shades of grey, degrees, catalysts and reactions.

Turkey has a geopolitical impact, yes. But not a big global economic impact. No one block has enough exposure to their debt. If they did the 40% devaluation would be headline news everywhere for the past month. Happy to be proven wrong though.

badtoro · 14-08-2018 12:10PM

Trigger Happy wrote: »

Turkey has a geopolitical impact, yes. But not a big global economic impact. No one block has enough exposure to their debt. If they did the 40% devaluation would be headline news everywhere for the past month. Happy to be proven wrong though.

Its all connected, one does not live in a vacuum isolated from the other. If Turkeys population choose Erdogan when things are going relatively well, who will they choose or what policies will they turn a blind eye to, or which new relationships will they welcome if things get worse. How then does all of that play when it knocks on to other countries and their complicated relationships with the world.

Its a mistake not to take Turkey seriously. We, as in the West, are far better off having the Turks for us than against us.

Sal Butamol · 14-08-2018 01:28PM

Spanish banks are exposed to the tune of 86billion, UK, France and Italy too

Absolutely this could affect Europe

WoollyRedHat · 14-08-2018 01:31PM

It is simply one of many ripple effects that slowly will invert the natural order culminating in a seismic shift across the globe .

Snickers Man · 14-08-2018 01:33PM

Mr. Incognito wrote: »

I was in Istanbul last September and it is honestly the best holiday I have ever had.

I would highly recommend it.

Wonderful country. Fabulous food. Great people.

Mr. Incognito wrote: »

Theres too little foreign investment in Turkey for it to affect global economies

Dunno about that. Many European banks are "exposed" ie, lent them money that they will have difficulty getting back. Not good.

Edgware · 14-08-2018 02:23PM

Turkey is a beautiful country to visit for a holiday with sun sea history. However it is moving backwards under the current regime with major abuses of human rights. I wouldnt be in favour of it becoming a EU country. Better off to have a bulwark against the extremists of the Middle East like Syria Iran etc

RobertKK · 14-08-2018 02:37PM

Sal Butamol wrote: »

Spanish banks are exposed to the tune of 86billion, UK, France and Italy too

Absolutely this could affect Europe

Yep, Turkey has a lot of borrowings from European banks in foreign currency and the fall in the Turkish Lira is leading to concerns if Turkey can repay it back if the Lira stays weak or weakens further.

TheValeyard · 14-08-2018 02:41PM

This is all down to Mini Hitler Erdogan.

The worrying thing is the worse this gets, the more he will blame USA and EU and the more suport he will get.

Sal Butamol · 15-08-2018 01:24PM

Turkey should never be allowed become part of the EU.

There's enough Turks already in Europe without the floodgates opening.

Erdogan is a despot

Grayson · 15-08-2018 01:35PM

Sal Butamol wrote: »

Turkey should never be allowed become part of the EU.

There's enough Turks already in Europe without the floodgates opening.

Erdogan is a despot

If turkey can meet the requirements I have no objection. That includes economics and human rights etc.
But remember even at the best it's been in the last 20 years it's not even close to getting to the minimum standards.

Sal Butamol · 15-08-2018 07:22PM

Grayson wrote: »

If turkey can meet the requirements I have no objection. That includes economics and human rights etc.
But remember even at the best it's been in the last 20 years it's not even close to getting to the minimum standards.

And it never will.

16-08-2018 09:32AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

With a young and increasingly well-educated population, Turkey should have been on course to become a model for a Muslim-majority secular democracy. It should have been on the road to prosperity and better human rights.

Then Erdogan decides he wants to be an Islamist strongman and drags the country down. In my mind he is the absolute most despicable leader in the world - worse than Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Xi, even Kim - for how he has turned the progress of his country backwards. As much as I can't stand Trump, I'll be thankful for the tariffs he has imposed if it helps to set in motion a chain of events that ultimately proves Erdogan's undoing.

You forgot to mention Bush, by far the worst of them all. Half a million people dead over the head of a propaganda campaign by the Bush administration. Then he rides off into the sunset smirking.

inforfun · 16-08-2018 10:03AM

Grayson wrote: »

If turkey can meet the requirements I have no objection. That includes economics and human rights etc.
But remember even at the best it's been in the last 20 years it's not even close to getting to the minimum standards.

I think we should wait a little while allowing Turkey to enter the EU as long as they keep voting Mr Erdogan. A man who recently described the Dutch as nazis, child murderers, child abusers... ah wait.... here is the list:

Most of them he uttered after the Dutch didnt allow some Turkish minister going on election tour in The Netherlands.
All Turks abroad are very much encouraged to vote in Turkish elections which isnt really a mystery why when you see 80% of the Turkish voting in The Netherland voting for the ****.
And with me calling him that last word i risk being picked and put in jail if i ever set foot in Turkey as has happened to a few Dutch citizens already.
Of course ou PM with his silicon spine Rutte has now dropped the demand for apologies of Mr Erdogan. he needs to think of his next job in the EU after all.

Nah..... we should wait a while allowing them to enter.

PS
And if this is what they have to bring to the table, i think we will probably survive without Turkey in the EU

https://twitter.com/mutludc/status/1029915723785752576?

super_furry · 16-08-2018 10:56AM

That'll show them. Smashing up a phone that you've already bought and will have to be replaced by a new one because how else are you going to film yourself smashing up more stuff.

Christ I hope they never fall out with us, they'll be trying to set pints of Guinness on fire.

Is Turkey about to trigger a global ****storm?

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