FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

whatever76 · 27-07-2018 1:01pm

how are things looking on Sunday afternoon for croke park ?! Will rain gear be required ?!

squarecircles · 27-07-2018 1:38pm

gfs 06z is high pressure dominated from august 2nd untill the end of the run,
august 12th.

sryanbruen · 27-07-2018 2:53pm

White Clover wrote: »

What is it indicating? Thanks

Changeable with differences in air masses on a daily basis and rain from time to time, even during the period that high pressure is expected to come back as above from the GFS 06z. The 0z is an outlier..... for now.

Villain · 27-07-2018 2:54pm

ECMWF mean looking nice and settled

Gonzo · 27-07-2018 3:02pm

Villain wrote: »

ECMWF mean looking nice and settled

I'll be in the Shannon region for that weekend, so keeping a very close eye on this one, if things work out, 30C may happen again in the mid west as winds look like they will have an easterly flavour.

km79 · 27-07-2018 3:22pm

This has cheered me up
Can handle these 4 days of absolute misery which will help people in need of rain as long as it settles back down for a few weeks again

Call me Al · 27-07-2018 4:44pm

km79 wrote: »

This has cheered me up
Can handle these 4 days of absolute misery which will help people in need of rain as long as it settles back down for a few weeks again

Yes. I appreciate rain is needed. And hopefully we will get lots of it between now and midweek.

But I'm also hoping that Mother Nature doesn't forget to stop raining, as tends to happen in an Irish summer.

squarecircles · 27-07-2018 4:50pm

Call me Al wrote: »

Yes. I appreciate rain is needed. And hopefully we will get lots of it between now and midweek.

But I'm also hoping that Mother Nature doesn't forget to stop raining, as tends to happen in an Irish summer.

yes its high time we came back inline now with the rest of europe,regarding sunshine and heat,weve had enough cloudy overcast days here in the west,The uk are having a blast,the heatwave has reloaded in scandinavia, and its business as usual in the med and central europe.i want my heat and sunshine back please.

Cork Boy 53 · 27-07-2018 9:50pm

km79 wrote: »

This has cheered me up
Can handle these 4 days of absolute misery which will help people in need of rain as long as it settles back down for a few weeks again

I have serious issues with lack of water. My well is on the point of drying up despite the rain of the last two days and many of my neighbouring farmers and landowners are in the same position so personally speaking I hope we get a prolonged period of steady rainfall.

ItJustWorks · 27-07-2018 11:16pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Changeable with differences in air masses on a daily basis and rain from time to time, even during the period that high pressure is expected to come back as above from the GFS 06z. The 0z is an outlier..... for now.

12z GFS going for more settled with the ridge rebuilding from the west and bringing a NW flow like the 0z so outside of some light rain/drizzle it's average temperatures. 12z ECM is kinda a mess after Thursday and indecisive as it rapidly makes a ridge for the Friday then shunts it to the east as soon as it forms letting the Atlantic have a look in again. Does look warmer in the south though.

Meteorite58 · 28-07-2018 1:47pm

Heights and pressure building towards the weekend as ridging moves up over us. Would be great if we got at least some warm weather for a few days but it looks quite transient with LP wanting to push through again after the weekend but very uncertain. I see the Scandi HP being replaced by LP out at +240. The GFS taking on a more meridional flow after that perhaps. The weak Jet is fractured all over the place in the next week or so . A way out in FI it takes on a more strong North South flow showing a deeper Atlantic LP but that is purely just looking for trends at this stage.

sryanbruen · 28-07-2018 5:51pm

GFS 12z turns up the furnace and different again. Like I said, expect lots more flips and flops!

km79 · 28-07-2018 6:12pm

Light me up baby !!!

Meteorite58 · 28-07-2018 6:53pm

Mod Note: Please keep on Topic. This thread is for posting and discussing charts / future weather in the more unreliable timeframe of FI ,

that is +120 hrs.

Thanks

Kermit.de.frog · 28-07-2018 7:54pm

Good signs across the models from Wednesday onward. Increasing dry, warm and sunny weather quite likely to return.

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Some industries (Farmers) maybe not so much good news.

It's on.

ItJustWorks · 28-07-2018 11:12pm

ECMWF 12z Seeming fine for the bank holiday weekend. Pleasant weather after maybe a brief wet interlude on Thursday. South will get a nice warm spell for sure though not looking overly hot. Only thing that has me wondering is that the High being shunted very quickly over to Scandinavia and not hooking with the Azores high. Meanwhile the Atlantic jet looks like it's having a peep in though the slack mess left behind. Could that be the August scenario we're looking at? Chopping and changing between high ridges and the Atlantic jet (Especially as it starts picking up more steam on the way into Autumn)?

sryanbruen · 29-07-2018 1:00pm

More changes on the 0z runs (along with GFS 06z), back to the transient ridge scenario that Meteorite58 highlighted for yesterday's 0z runs. The 12z runs said no to it. Wonder if the same will occur today.

sryanbruen · 29-07-2018 6:26pm

GFS 12z is strange. The high is transient and so is real warmth but it never gets very unsettled for Ireland through the run. The ensembles look rather wet though which again is very different.

sryanbruen · 29-07-2018 8:11pm

ECM 12z keeps pressure high (starting Thursday) lasting 'til the end of its run. It is much hotter for Friday than the GFS. BBQ weekend if the ECM is right.

Maximum temperatures for the weekend on the ECM 12z.

Saturday 4th August

Sunday 5th August

Meteorite58 · 29-07-2018 9:06pm

Heights and pressure building and temperatures improving Thurs and looks like getting warmer each day and looking the warmest Sat, Sun , Mon at this stage . ECM showing top temps of 25 - 27C over the week end .

Early days but will be interesting watching the plume coming up out of Spain to see if it gets further up over the country and maybe last a bit longer. Also will be watching for Thunderstorm potential. Could get quite humid the week end and will be watching to see if we get something in the upper atmosphere to ignite a few sparks. Very early but showing a small area of lower pressure move up from the S around Sat / Sun this, looks slack but could feed in precipitation of some sort / cloud perhaps.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-07-2018 11:05pm

The heat really built up by Sunday on the ECM

ItJustWorks · 30-07-2018 12:11pm

0z/6z on GFS and 0z on ECMWF opting for a good weekend. Mid 20's highs in the west but easterly breezes might keep it cooler on the east. Should be pleasant. Both seem in agreement the high and heat will be shunted off by next Tuesday though. The jet stream evolution isn't quite clear yet though so all might change by the time we hit a reliable timeframe so keep investing in the flip flops I suppose.

sryanbruen · 30-07-2018 6:39pm

Lovely weekend on GFS 12z but then it all breaks down by Tuesday 7th August with low pressure from the south followed by a westerly.

sryanbruen · 30-07-2018 7:57pm

Comparison of 192 hours on the GFS and ECM 12z. The big differences between the models prove the uncertainty that I can't stress enough.

Really good weekend though on the ECM 12z with Sunday especially looking wonderful.

If the period after Sunday/Monday from the ECM were to come to fruition, it'd be strikingly similar to August 2006 which was a forgettable, damp month after the hot July and warm June of 2006.

pauldry · 31-07-2018 2:12am

I beg to differ

Latest GFS has even Monday showery

Just because we baked in June and July doesnt mean all Highs last weeks and weeks.

Just a bit mad coz Im off next week and they were promising mainly dry weather but it looks like Friday to Sunday and then wer done

JCX BXC · 31-07-2018 6:50am

pauldry wrote: »

I beg to differ

Latest GFS has even Monday showery

Just because we baked in June and July doesnt mean all Highs last weeks and weeks.

Just a bit mad coz Im off next week and they were promising mainly dry weather but it looks like Friday to Sunday and then wer done

And another GFS is out, Monday looks very hot the breakdown is on Tuesday. I'm sure you know well enough at this stage to not base your expectations on 1/2 runs! Especially if they're past 120 hours! So there was no promises, not then, not now!

JCX BXC · 31-07-2018 1:25pm

GFS 06Z extends warm weather to Tuesday.

Cantona's Collars · 31-07-2018 1:31pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

GFS 06Z extends warm weather to Tuesday.

Dunno if it will have any effect on us but temps in Portugal expected to hit 45c,even some of that heat moving North would have quite an effect on our weather.

sryanbruen · 31-07-2018 1:34pm

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Dunno if it will have any effect on us but temps in Portugal expected to hit 45c,even some of that heat moving North would have quite an effect on our weather.

GFS 06z shows 52c in Portugal on Saturday. The record high European temperature is 48.0c in July 1977.

Gonzo · 31-07-2018 1:38pm

so far the temperatures this weekend don't look that impressive. Here in south Meath the predicted temperatures for my area are going no higher than 23C with showers foretasted up to Friday, then back into the teens after Monday.

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST