Brexit on Aviation

vg88 · 13-07-2018 9:15pm #1

Might get a thread going. What are your views on a hard or soft brexit on the UKs aviation industry and it's affects on Ireland?

L1011 · 13-07-2018 10:32pm

If they go No Deal, we end up using every working airfield to bounce UK passengers to places they no longer have rights to. Commercial flights at Weston, Baldonnel, Gormanstown etc here we come!

HTCOne · 13-07-2018 10:51pm

Indeed. All of their carriers would be grounded overnight because such a large part of their certification and oversight is done by EASA and the CAA are on record as saying there’s no way in hell they’d be able to get everything in place in time to take back these functions. Irish airlines would be the only ones able to operate in the UK due the old CTA rules. I’d say that won’t happen, but given the utter incompetence displayed by their government so far, anything is possible.

TheDriver · 13-07-2018 10:58pm

With May still prob in power and a set of demands for EU which they are laughing at, anything is entirely possible. It's only a few months and British unfortunately are thinking they have big bargaining potential. I'm sure it'll sort itself out but then again we thought that 2 years ago.

13-07-2018 11:34pm

Big issue is they would have very limited traffic rights as most deals were previously agreed through the EU as a whole which they’ll no longer be a part of.

US will want serious access to Heathrow, as in it’ll probably cost BA and Virgin a bucket of slots.

Jamie2k9 · 13-07-2018 11:50pm

Hard, Soft or Mild, flights won't be grounded by end of next March. Project fear would have you believe otherwise. I haven't mentioned no deal because the reality is the EU will crack with minutes (or fudge a deal like the recent migration to kick it down the road) to midnight on 28 March 2019, they need a deal more than the UK do and cracks are appearing among European Governments.

LiamaDelta · 13-07-2018 11:54pm

Jamie2k9 wrote:

Hard, Soft or Mild, flights won't be grounded by end of next March. Project fear would have you believe otherwise. I haven't mentioned no deal because the reality is the EU will crack with minutes (or fudge a deal like the recent migration to kick it down the road) to midnight on 28 March 2019, they need a deal more than the UK do and cracks are appearing among European Governments.

Why do you think the EU need a deal more than the UK do?

Twenty Grand · 14-07-2018 12:00am

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Why do you think the EU need a deal more than the UK do?

I don't think they do.
Much as I hate O Leary he did an interview last year where he said that if the issue isn't sorted by Oct this year, there'll be no flights from the UK in 2018.

Haven't seen mention of this issue since so..

Jamie2k9 · 14-07-2018 12:07am

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Why do you think the EU need a deal more than the UK do?

* More than 80% of UK business don't sell to the EU and many EU members depend on UK.
* Euro will be in for a period turmoil if there is a no deal.
* Eastern European States will pile pressure on Brussels. You have companies in Germany putting pressure on there Goverment now.
* EU economic growth has already been cut.
* EU Exit Bill needs paying, UK are not legally obliged to pay if they don't want.
* EU need T May to stay in power, poke a bear to much and you might get bite. They have pushed as far as they can and will have to more less accept what was proposed this week or face a no deal. You will notice the sudden change in language from EU and various political figures.
*Puppets Leo and Simon are not helping the situation at all.

EUs immigration and current migration from Africa in action is what is destroying and will continue to destroy Europe. Had the med routes been closed off I think Brexit had less chances of passing.

Now back to aviation:

Twenty Grand wrote: »

I don't think they do.
Much as I hate O Leary he did an interview last year where he said that if the issue isn't sorted by Oct this year, there'll be no flights from the UK in 2018.

Haven't seen mention of this issue since so..

Now saw it because FR are growing in the UK and have applied for UK AOC to protect ops. FR need UK not UK need FR.

Shn99 · 14-07-2018 12:10am

Twenty Grand wrote: »

I don't think they do.
Much as I hate O Leary he did an interview last year where he said that if the issue isn't sorted by Oct this year, there'll be no flights from the UK in 2018.

Haven't seen mention of this issue since so..

Well they have a base in SEN opening next April, flights on sale

14-07-2018 10:56am

One way or the other the U.K. has issues with international air service agreements as the vast majority are via the EU. For example openskies, that’s an EU/US deal. They need to start negotiations with everyone else to arrange their own deals. As it stands there will be no flying coming Brexit day unless they sit down and negotiate some sort of deal amongst themselves. U.K. attitude at the moment is take this white paper or else. Whether the EU will accept that or not we will see, but I agree it’s in everyone’s best interests to hammer something out even if it is a status quo for aviation alone but TM said there would be no extension.

As for trade balances remember while the trade balance may be in favour of the U.K. because it’s listed as £240b to £320b, that is one country trading with one block of 27 countries, when broken down as the U.K. trading to the individual nations then it is a lot less and more realistic. This we need them more than they need us is nonsense, who on earth could write £320 billion off as a folly ?

Can we please leave social media rhetoric like “Project Fear” etc on social media where people don’t act like grown adults who should be capable of grown discussion. “Project Fear” is actually Project Reality, and in aviation’s case it’s slowly dawned on Ryanair and IAG that the reality of post Brexit no deal was and is disastrous for the sector. They both originally started off claiming nothing would change then within a few months had massively rowed back on that to it’s a disaster and a deal needs to be done. You should read the FT article that lays out bleakly what a no deal means for the U.K. aviation industry.

https://www.ft.com/content/9461157c-1f97-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80

https://www.ft.com/content/e7674638-d078-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc

Ryanair can set up a base in Southend but remember they can always get a U.K. AOC or withdraw the start up if they want to.

Finally I believe some sort of deal will be hammered out and both sides will have to take massive steps back to make it happen.

Jamie2k9 · 14-07-2018 4:34pm

Can we please leave social media rhetoric like “Project Fear” etc on social media where people don’t act like grown adults who should be capable of grown discussion. “Project Fear” is actually Project Reality, and in aviation’s case it’s slowly dawned on Ryanair and IAG that the reality of post Brexit no deal was and is disastrous for the sector. They both originally started off claiming nothing would change then within a few months had massively rowed back on that to it’s a disaster and a deal needs to be done. You should read the FT article that lays out bleakly what a no deal means for the U.K. aviation industry.

FR always started off about how we are going to shift lots of aircraft out of the UK and they have increased them quiet significantly. Same with warnings from Airbus, who would take them seriously by implying they may quit the UK. Project Fear was way overplayed and the reality is as you suggest a deal will be complete.

Don't buy a no deal scenario, remember there is a transition period and lets say all flights were grounded next March it would be a matter of days not weeks because member states cannot afford to be cut off from the UK and the EU would be bounced into extending the agreement until individal deals are made.

Remember EU elections take place next year and there will be plenty of people nervous about trying to keep seats, damaging there domestic economy won't help them.

As for trade balances remember while the trade balance may be in favour of the U.K. because it’s listed as £240b to £320b, that is one country trading with one block of 27 countries, when broken down as the U.K. trading to the individual nations then it is a lot less and more realistic. This we need them more than they need us is nonsense, who on earth could write £320 billion off as a folly ?

Just like the EU cannot afford to write it off at all. Yes the UK would suffer but the EU economy is already fragile and losing the UK to free trad would deliver even more unrest in Europe.

murphaph · 18-07-2018 8:09am

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Don't buy a no deal scenario, remember there is a transition period and lets say all flights were grounded next March it would be a matter of days not weeks because member states cannot afford to be cut off from the UK and the EU would be bounced into extending the agreement until individal deals are made.

This is a common misconception. There will be NO transition period in the event of no deal being agreed before Brexit happens.

If nothing happens between now and end of March the UK crashes out of the EU treaties and becomes a third country with the same or lower status wrt the EU as Uganda.

There's only so far the EU can move to placate a maverick UK. There will be economic pain but sometimes the treatment is worse than the disease. We may well have to endure a hard, crash out Brexit if the chaos at Westminster this week is anything to go by (completely divided parliament).

Jamie2k9 · 19-07-2018 2:00am

murphaph wrote: »

This is a common misconception. There will be NO transition period in the event of no deal being agreed before Brexit happens.

If nothing happens between now and end of March the UK crashes out of the EU treaties and becomes a third country with the same or lower status wrt the EU as Uganda.

There's only so far the EU can move to placate a maverick UK. There will be economic pain but sometimes the treatment is worse than the disease. We may well have to endure a hard, crash out Brexit if the chaos at Westminster this week is anything to go by (completely divided parliament).

There will be a deal but if they crashed out without a deal the flight access rights would be resolved quickly just like trade. Those in Brussels are so far away from reality and will be put under pressure to back down over the winter and they will because it will only take one European Goverment to force there hand.

The EUs inflexibility is the issue here, this week Juncker was banging on about how free trade and fighting against protectionism is important, yet there approach is the exact opposite.

We will see how poor Europe is in 2020 when the next budget is drawn up, both sides need a deal but Europe needs it just a little more.

Aviation will be just fine this time next summer, the dry weather is more of an immediate issue for them....

murphaph · 19-07-2018 8:29am

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

There will be a deal but if they crashed out without a deal the flight access rights would be resolved quickly just like trade. Those in Brussels are so far away from reality and will be put under pressure to back down over the winter and they will because it will only take one European Goverment to force there hand.

The EUs inflexibility is the issue here, this week Juncker was banging on about how free trade and fighting against protectionism is important, yet there approach is the exact opposite.

We will see how poor Europe is in 2020 when the next budget is drawn up, both sides need a deal but Europe needs it just a little more.

Aviation will be just fine this time next summer, the dry weather is more of an immediate issue for them....

The UK can have a FTA like Canada or Japan quite easily I would imagine-that's not at issue. It wants a whole lot more than a FTA however. It wants a bunch of things that require all the other EU countries to subject themselves to the ECJ for, but without subjecting itself to the ECJ for.

19-07-2018 11:27am

murphaph wrote: »

The UK can have a FTA like Canada or Japan quite easily I would imagine-that's not at issue. It wants a whole lot more than a FTA however. It wants a bunch of things that require all the other EU countries to subject themselves to the ECJ for, but without subjecting itself to the ECJ for.

It took 7 years to agree the deal between the EU and Canada. The EU had a deal in place and worked up from there, the U.K. has to start afresh and also be creating all these wonderful deals with every other nation.

smurfjed · 19-07-2018 6:25pm

The Irish PM has ramped up the rhetoric by threatening to block planes from flying over his country to the UK if the EU's demands are not met.

[font=graphik, Arial, sans-serif]Leo Varadkar said Britain could not expect to 'use other people's sky' after leaving the bloc if there is no deal on future relations.[/font]

[font=graphik, Arial, sans-serif]Interesting threat, did any of his "people" ask him how he intended to have Irish flights operate to Europe?[/font]

murphaph · 19-07-2018 9:51pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It took 7 years to agree the deal between the EU and Canada. The EU had a deal in place and worked up from there, the U.K. has to start afresh and also be creating all these wonderful deals with every other nation.

I was speaking politically. I understand the negotiation of any FTA typically takes a number of years. What is not an option politically is an a la carte approach to the EU's core institutions by the UK.

murphaph · 19-07-2018 9:54pm

smurfjed wrote: »

[font=graphik, Arial, sans-serif]Interesting threat, did any of his "people" ask him how he intended to have Irish flights operate to Europe?[/font]

This comment was very poorly judged by Varadkar. I think we need to be firm and I am broadly satisfied with the government's handling of Brexit so far, but this is needless stirring.

19-07-2018 10:22pm

smurfjed wrote: »

[font=graphik, Arial, sans-serif]Interesting threat, did any of his "people" ask him how he intended to have Irish flights operate to Europe?[/font]

He appears to have been badly briefed with his comments or the journalists have made a complete hash of what he actually said.

Overflying rights are enshrined in the 1st freedom of the air. The U.K. could be an arse and prevent overflights but that would be met tit for tat by Europe. That is not what will stop the U.K. flying on Brexitday, while limited traffic rights are allowed between the U.K. and elsewhere they would not be allowed to fly to where ever they wanted like easyJet and BA currently do in Europe.

The big one for the U.K. is the loss of rights provided by Openskies II, now the U.K. on Brexitday as it stands only has very basic rights and is not allowed to negotiate an Air Services agreement till they leave the EU. What the U.K. are staring down the barrel of is a return of Bermuda or worse considering it is Trump in power.

Dont book a flight via a U.K. destination that has you travelling after Brexitday unless their is an agreement in place. U.K. airlines and travel companies have added specific sections in to their T&C’s that covers a no deal Brexit. Basically it says they don’t have to carry you and in some cases don’t have to refund you for out of pocket expenses. https://www.which.co.uk/news/2018/03/brexit-travel-confusion-for-holidaymakers/

We can’t rely on “a deal will be done” while Westminster can’t even sort themselves out how on earth can they be expect to sort a meaningful realistic deal out with Europe and the world in time.

Charles Babbage · 19-07-2018 10:52pm

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

The EUs inflexibility is the issue here, this week Juncker was banging on about how free trade and fighting against protectionism is important, yet there approach is the exact opposite.

We will see how poor Europe is in 2020 when the next budget is drawn up, both sides need a deal but Europe needs it just a little more.

Are in some alternate universe? The EU is perfectly willing to give the UK a deal similar to that of other friendly nations like Norway, Switzerland or Canada, with the exception of the special arrangements for NI.

Europe most certainly does not need a deal more than the UK. Almost all goods the UK supplies the EU are available elsewhere.

goingnowhere · 20-07-2018 12:50pm

Overflights are enshrined in law going back a lot longer than the EU, EC, EEA...

The question really is will anyone be able to fly in/out of the UK at all.

Openskies means UK won't be flying to the US and has to fall back to pre Openskies agreements if that is even possible
UK registered airlines will lose the right to operate intra EEA flights and have to fall back on the legacy route authorities for UK-anywhere else if that is even possible. Easyjet has setup shop in Austria to get around this.

Now the fun starts here as if we revert to the old rules

Aer Lingus had the route authority for DUB-MAN-DUS, SNN/ORK/DUB-LHR, DUB-BHX and a few others including a few fifth freedom DUB-UK-Europe routings. Aer Lingus also held (or still does) a UK AOC so is able to operate internal flights UK/NI (they held/hold the contract for UK government travel to Belfast from London, you can't make this up...).

Ryanair was slow to the party with looking for a UK AOC and had route authorities for at least LGW, STN, LPL

20-07-2018 3:25pm

Yes it’s called the 1st freedom of the air but like Russia did to Lufthansa that can be withdrawn by any nation if they wanted to or they could limit it.

Under His Eye · 20-07-2018 3:29pm

The former USSR was pretty much a no fly zone for western airlines until the mid 1990's.

Brennans Row · 20-07-2018 8:31pm

Ireland’s PM has been branded ‘mad’ for threatening to stop British planes flying over Ireland as revenge for Brexit (The Sun)

Some very upset Brexiteers.

Apologies for quoting this tabloid but since they were successful in forming their readers minds to leave the EU we should take their trash seriously.

Also since Donald Trump is prepared to tear up trade treaties, it would not surprise anyone that he could do the same with air treaties too.

With such hindsight now of the Brexit, the sale of Aer Lingus to IAG would never have happened.
It could also throw a spanner in the works of DAA’s need for a second runway too.

Under His Eye · 20-07-2018 8:42pm

Map shown is total bullcrap. There is a flight to Kaliningrad? Nothing towards towards the SE, Greece etc shown.

Jamie2k9 · 20-07-2018 9:00pm

Brennans Row wrote: »

Some very upset Brexiteers.

Apologies for quoting this tabloid but since they were successful in forming their readers minds to leave the EU we should take their trash seriously.

Also since Donald Trump is prepared to tear up trade treaties, it would not surprise anyone that he could do the same with air treaties too.
With such hindsight now of the Brexit, the sale of Aer Lingus to IAG would never have happened.

It could also throw a spanner in the works of DAA’s need for a second runway too.

It just illustrates how much of a prat Leo V was about the comments. Ireland and the UK need one another's airspace just as much as each other.

Leo isn't helping the situation at all. We are often told about how Ireland will be impacted more than most, such digs and points scoring from Leo will come back to bite him if he's not careful.

IAG is Spanish not British so Brexit is irrelevant in terms of the sale.

Brennans Row · 20-07-2018 10:04pm

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

It just illustrates how much of a prat Leo V was about the comments. Ireland and the UK need one another's airspace just as much as each other.

Leo isn't helping the situation at all. We are often told about how Ireland will be impacted more than most, such digs and points scoring from Leo will come back to bite him if he's not careful.

Get real, the Taoiseach was only highlighting the fact to our neighbours that you can’t have your cake and eat it.

Ireland is the weakest link here that stands to lose the most.

Be it the hard won peace in the North or our trade inter-dependency with the UK and the EU.

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

IAG is Spanish not British so Brexit is irrelevant in terms of the sale.

International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A., often shortened to IAG, is an Anglo-Spanish multinational airline holding company with its registered office in Madrid, Spain and its operational headquarters in London, UK.

It was formed in January 2011 after a merger agreement between British Airways and Iberia, the flag carrier airlines of the United Kingdom and Spain respectively.

As British Airways was the larger company, those holding shares in British Airways at the time of the merger were given 55% of the shares in the new, merged company (WiKi)

Jamie2k9 · 20-07-2018 10:19pm

Brennans Row wrote: »

Get real, the Taoiseach was only highlighting the fact to our neighbours that you can’t have your cake and eat it.

Ireland is the weakest link here that stands to lose the most.

Be it the hard won peace in the North or our trade inter-dependency with the UK and the EU.

International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A., often shortened to IAG, is an Anglo-Spanish multinational airline holding company with its registered office in Madrid, Spain and its operational headquarters in London, UK.

It was formed in January 2011 after a merger agreement between British Airways and Iberia, the flag carrier airlines of the United Kingdom and Spain respectively.

As British Airways was the larger company, those holding shares in British Airways at the time of the merger were given 55% of the shares in the new, merged company (WiKi)

Yet thinks Ireland can "have its cake and eat it" i.e threat to block flights and expect the UK to say that grand you can still use ours. Only loses here will be the Irish and British public who will be faced with higher air fares because of re routes. So who's interests does Leo have ours or Brussels?

Not that it has a remote chance of happening.

HQ is irrelevant, its Spanish holding company and once shareholders in UK are 49% or below means no problems.

faoiarvok · 20-07-2018 10:40pm

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Yet thinks Ireland can "have its cake and eat it" i.e threat to block flights and expect the UK to say that grand you can still use ours.

It wasn’t a threat, it was a statement of what will happen if no agreement or fallback agreement happens. Nobody said anything about us using UK airspace in such a scenario.

Jamie2k9 · 20-07-2018 10:43pm

faoiarvok wrote: »

It wasn’t a threat, it was a statement of what will happen if no agreement or fallback agreement happens. Nobody said anything about us using UK airspace in such a scenario.

The point been its in Ireland interest to be part of an agreement with or without a deal at EU level, Leo appeared to ignore this fact and thinks all will be merry for us when it won't be.

Brexit on Aviation

Comments